raumdeuter:
Okay

Tinubu gets more votes nationwide than Obi

I will improve the odds.

I drop 1m any willing Obidient drops 500K

I drop 2M any Obidient drop 1M

This offer is just for regular posters on this thread

Forget the bet baba. If any Tinubu supporter can tell the Primary school he attended he'll win free 200k from me.

raumdeuter:


Have you seen anyone staking on Chelsea vs Madrid and saying referee fraud?

Its either you are confident in your candidate or you just dey whine us for the past 7months

Your comparison doesn't match... there is no correlation whatsoever bw an election with a football match......

Ellexy:
Forget the bet baba. If any Tinubu supporter can tell the Primary school he attended he'll win free 200k from me.

That is not a requirement to defeat Obi on Saturday. When it becomes one we can talk

Segedinho:

Your comparison doesn't match... there is no correlation whatsoever bw an election with a football match......

Both have odds of happening.

Chelsea can win or lose to Madrid
BAT can win or lose to Obi

Any event that is not certain to happen can be staked on

Segedinho:

Humans react differently to a given actions or threats.....

Rubbing it on everyone is being biased an untrue.......

The insults...jibes and what have you is actually not perculiar to one party as we have seen cases of even physical assault from opposition likewise...

I think you shouldn't insults/assaults anyone on his/her choice but you wouldn't expect an easy landing from the person or group of people you have insulted.

I personally have not insulted anyone, don't need to and obviously not expecting anything from anyone. I stay on my lane.
Just because people react to issues differently does not necessarily make them evil. The energy used in insulting each other can be channelled into something more productive.

raumdeuter:


That is not a requirement to defeat Obi on Saturday. When it becomes one we can talk

How can I trust someone who's past is unknown and murky to lead Nigeria? Where such character wan lead us go...

Looks like INEC may have to reschedule the NASS elections in Lagos because the Labor Party logo is missing on those ballots. Smh

raumdeuter:


Both have odds of happening.

Chelsea can win or lose to Madrid
BAT can win or lose to Obi

Any event that is not certain to happen can be staked on

The non-correlation part of the bet is the uncertain surrounding d election as well as what is going to transpired in between..

I have seen n witnessed a system of fraud that you might not be able to uncover due to tactic deployed......


In election,the riggers aim is to beat d process and researches are orchestrated for it.....

Atiku n BAT are strong men with good amount of understanding of the techniques to uncover a covered system..

FBS:

This is a fair argument and I will accept it, but you shouldn't direct that anger and aggression towards those promoting the said party as they may see things differently. This is a democracy after all.
What you should do is channel that energy in promoting your own party and convince people why they will perform better because at the end of the day, you will all be living together in the same country.

May the best man win.

🥂👍

FBS:

I personally have not insulted anyone, don't need to and obviously not expecting anything from anyone. I stay on my lane.
Just because people react to issues differently does not necessarily make them evil. The energy used in insulting each other can be channelled into something more productive.

Reasons why I said human reacts differently to a given action.


Macaroni was accused of bribery just because he chose a candidates...

So,in politics...all you need to do is stay in ur Lane to avoid insults from aggrieved people who thinks differently..

raumdeuter:


What is too much to ask? That you Obidients despite all the polls pointing to Obi win despite everything Buhari has done to curb malpractice

Is it still too hard for Obidients to stake on their man

Simple answer, WE DON'T KNOW IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH!!!

You just keep repeating the same thing over and over again!
Deliberately obscuring facts as if you don't understand what is being said.

In a free and fair elections, obi wins in a landslide, seeing as he's the most popular candidate.

But this is Nigeria where an osun state governor is about to be denied his mandate, where the imo state governor is there bases on institutional corruption and rigged system, where we know for a fact that the official numbers of inec results are never the realities on ground.

You're sounding like a broken record already.

Segedinho:

Reasons why I said human reacts differently to a given action.


Macaroni was accused of bribery just because he chose a candidates...

So,in politics...all you need to do is stay in ur Lane to avoid insults from aggrieved people who thinks differently..

In politics especially, you should know that this is not always possible. But hey, that is politics, right?
All in all, I want to believe that we all want the best FOR the country.

FBS:

In politics especially, you should know that this is not always possible. But hey, that is politics, right?

If it is not possible,then take their taught as d disadvantageous part of politics.......


It is as it is

raumdeuter:


Have you seen anyone staking on Chelsea vs Madrid and saying referee fraud?

Its either you are confident in your candidate or you just dey whine us for the past 7months

Always with the false equivalences time and time again, once he's boxed in, he brings a non correlated analogy to twist the narrative.

In this analogy now, you're asking if people that stake on football matches ask about refree fraud? Except what you're leaving out is that refree fraud barely ever happens but in a Nigerian elections, refree fraud is the order of the day.

Infact turning this your analogy on its head;
One asks; WILL ANYBODY BET ON A MATCH WHERE THE REFREE IS FAMED FOR RIGGING AND REFREE FRAUD?

Segedinho:

If it is not possible,then take their taught as d disadvantageous part of politics.......


It is as it is

ok boss.

Ellexy:
Forget the bet baba. If any Tinubu supporter can tell the Primary school he attended he'll win free 200k from me.

I love this angu.

It's always funny hearing Batist say, "all I want is the best for the country", while simultaneously selling us an old decrepit, mysterious and corrupt candidate.

If you own a business and you love it soo much, will you pick an incapable person to spear head that business? Abeg make una dey spare us that cock and bull, I want what's best for the country while selling tinubu, it's like telling someone you love the person while beating the person at the same time. It makes no sense.

raumdeuter:


I have put my bet on the table for over 6months no one took it

My bet is that

Tinubu gets more votes nationwide than Obi stake 1 to 10M

no one took it

I am not an Obidient, but Chairman I took on up on your original bet naa wrt Obi not winning 1 state or something like that 😀😀😀 You also have changed stance when you saw that jungle did not mature as expected; I even sweetened it to Obi wins 15% of total vote cast + If I win I donate all my winning to charity N1-N5 million but you sha jump pass... Offer still on the table cos 15% of vote cast isn't distant 3rd in a four man horse race naa

Nobody in their right mind would put serious money on an Obi victory against an entreched establishment parties; but they sure can hope for an upset..

Also as Chairman wey you be; Egbon you can as well declare that if Obi beats Tinubu you will share the N10 million on this thread, as pe emi ni mo mu abayi wa I go collect N20k in 200 naira notes - new notes only 😀😀😀

Olowunl01:


I am not an Obidient, but Chairman I took on up on your original bet naa wrt Obi not winning 1 state or something like that 😀😀😀 You also have changed stance when you saw that jungle did not mature as expected; I even sweetened it to Obi wins 15% of total vote cast + If I win I donate all my winning to charity N1-N5 million but you sha jump pass... Offer still on the table cos 15% of vote cast isn't distant 3rd in a four man horse race naa

Nobody in their right mind would put serious money on an Obi victory against an entreched establishment parties; but they sure can hope for an upset..

Also as Chairman wey you be; Egbon you can as well declare that if Obi beats Tinubu you will share the N10 million on this thread, as pe emi ni mo mu abayi wa I go collect N20k in 200 naira notes - new notes only 😀😀😀

I didn't tell anyone that Obi won't win 1 state

FBS:

How is that a problem? Is it against the law to contest for public office?

Alaye, person wey I mention in my post know reason why I mention am. E get reason why I directed my post at him and not at anyone else.

BlueRayDick:


Alaye, person wey I mention in my post know reason why I mention am. E get reason why I directed my post at him and not at anyone else.

ok sir.

Donjazet2:


As in? I'm trying to understand the hype around the jarus guy. Is he better than professional polling companies that employ statistical models and data to predict voting pattern and favorobility of a candidate?

I have always maintained that this election will be vastly different from what we've seen before.
Infact the candidacy and rapid growth of obi's campaign is already testament to that.

Almost every neutral observer 6 months ago genuinely believed that Obi was going nowhere but look at it today, you can't talk about the nigerian election in any part of the country today without talking about Obi.

The man is now a household name. More than 90 percent of all nigerian household has an obi supporter, whether voting or non voting.

The campaign has rapidly altered the method of campaigning in Nigeria.

All within the space of 6 months!!
I can't wait to see the shock on people's faces when they start seeing the results of nasarawa state, Abuja, plateau, benue and taraba state.

Mark these 4 state's I just mentioned. They will be shocked.

The truth is there's actually nothing special about Jarus' projections. Yes it's true he's a numbers person cos he's currently a Tax manager with PWC and has worked as accountant/Tax manager in the oil and gas industry in the past, but just like Ogbeni Dipo he has his biases.

Personally I don't believe in any of the polls be it stears, Jarus, ANAP. I don't believe in them because most of them are always based on Ceteris paribus (All things being equal). Nigeria is not a society where things remain same based on projections. A lot of factors can change the tide of things.

As at yesterday morning several armoured personnel carriers were seen at the entrance point of Lagos in ojodu berger. That same yesterday MC Oluomo was all over Lagos Island causing serious traffic impediment all in the name of final campaign. As of now nobody knows the game Buhari is playing. INEC has omitted the LP party logo on the HOR and Senate ballot papers inspected by the party officials. All of these and many more factors will have a bearing on the eventual results which may not even align with any projection on ground.

FBS:

My take is this, I don't understand the aggression against anyone who appears not to support Obi. Like, is everyone supposed to support only 1 candidate? This is not China or is it?


As for betting, you should be able to find some on this very thread.

I think u are delibrately being unfair with this particular post. If u go on twitter, nairaland and other social media handle u will see there are Obi supporters who attack Tinubu supporters unprovoked and there are also Tinubu supporters who attack Obi supporters unprovoked. None of both supporters have monopoly of attacking the other party.

But here u are making it seem like only Obi supporters are guilty of that. You can even see it on this thread that both parties fire each other from time to time.

The truth is there are toxic supporters in both camps and nobody can deny that. Projecting behaviour of some supporters on the totality of all supporters is unfair.

BlueRayDick:


I think u are delibrately being unfair with this particular post. If u go on twitter, nairaland and other social media handle u will see there are Obi supporters who attack Tinubu supporters unprovoked and there are also Tinubu supporters who attack Obi supporters unprovoked. None of both supporters have monopoly of attacking the other party.

But here u are making it seem like only Obi supporters are guilty of that. You can even see it on this thread that both parties fire each other from time to time.

The truth is there are toxic supporters in both camps and nobody can deny that. Projecting behaviour of some supporters on the totality of all supporters is unfair.

I think you deliberately decided to be unfair in your understanding of the post as that was not the intention.

FBS:

I think you deliberately decided to be unfair in your understanding of the post as that was not the intention.

But u said there's an aggression against "anyone" who appears not to support Obi and I think it's unafair. That's a blanket statement u are making there.

Myself for example I support Obi and my MO is definitely not aggression against anyone,who doesn't support Obi. I would rather people are educated to see the damage APC government has done to this country for the past 8 years and advise they not reward same APC with another 4 years. You certainly won't call that aggression would u?

BlueRayDick:


But u said there's an aggression against "anyone" who appears not to support Obi and I think it's unafair. That's a blanket statement u are making there.

Myself for example I support Obi and my MO is definitely not aggression against anyone,who doesn't support Obi. I would rather people are educated to see the damage APC government has done to this country for the past 8 years and advise they not reward same APC with another 4 years. You certainly won't call that aggression would u?

This is what I said

I don't understand the aggression against anyone who appears not to support Obi

I wanted to understand where this is coming from. This is different from "there is an aggression".
Then someone replied with a very fair, impersonal statement and reason which I accepted.

How you understood it is completely up to you.

FBS:

This is what I said
[i][/i]

I wanted to understand where this is coming from. This is different from "there is an aggression".
Then someone replied with a very fair, impersonal statement and reason which I accepted.

How you understood it is completely up to you.

It is well.

Here is my prediction error rate of 5-10%:
Abia-LP
Adamawa-PDP
Akwa-Ibom- LP
Anambra-LP
Bauchi-APC
Bayelsa-PDP
Benue-PDP
Borno-APC
Cross-River-LP
Delta-PDP
Edo-LP
Ekiti-APC
Enugu-PDP
FCT-PDP
Gombe-PDP
Imo-LP
Jigawa-NNPP
Kaduna-APC
Kano-APC
Katsina-APC
Kebbi-PDP
Kogi-APC
Kwara-APC
Lagos-APC
Nasarawa-APC
Niger-PDP
Ondo- APC
Ogun-APC
Osun-APC
Oyo-APC
Plateau-LP
Rivers-PDP
Sokoto-PDP
Taraba-PDP
Yobe-APC
Zamfara- APC

I think Falz is making some serious sense here.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CpAiTq_oUKo/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

The fact that there's no cap on the number of times a person can be elected into the house of assembly (unlike the presidential seat which has a cap of two terms) is definitely one of the reasons things might not be getting better anytime soon in this country.

A member of house of assembly who has spent 5 terms of 4 years each is definitely a greater problem than a president who just uses 8 years . Such house of assembly members will always insist on horse-trading to assent to bills, pass budgets, and make impactul legislations. I guess we need to take house of assembly elections more serious going forward sha

BlueRayDick:
I think Falz is making some serious sense here.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CpAiTq_oUKo/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

The fact that there's no cap on the number of times a person can be elected into the house of assembly (unlike the presidential seat which has a cap of two terms) is definitely one of the reasons things might not be getting better anytime soon in this country.

A member of house of assembly who has spent 5 terms of 4 years each is definitely a greater problem than a president who just uses 8 years . Such house of assembly members will always insist on horse-trading to assent to bills, pass budgets, and make impactul legislations. I guess we need to take house of assembly elections more serious going forward sha

Not having term limits has not truncated Western countries. It is actually good to have a fair bit of experience in the house so that we won’t have people learning on the job all the time.

If their electorate does not like them they will vote them out. We should be focussing on free and fair elections and fighting corruption rather than term limits for reps.

Robert Byrd was a U.S senator for 51 yrs (from before Naija independence to Yar’Adua presidency) and there was no problem with the democracy.

afrodoc2:


Not having term limits has not truncated Western countries. It is actually good to have a fair bit of experience in the house so that we won’t have people learning on the job all the time.

If their electorate does not like them they will vote them out. We should be focussing on free and fair elections and fighting corruption rather than term limits for reps.

Robert Byrd was a U.S senator for 51 yrs (from before Naija independence to Yar’Adua presidency) and there was no problem with the democracy.

I'm actually not a fan of comparing Nigerian democracy with America's. Nigeria democracy no dey run like like America's at all.

If we look at the US senator u mentioned we will probably see tons of positive bills he was able to sponsor and see thru that has impacted on the lives of his constituents and the American people at large. If we look at someone like David mark who spent 20 years in Senate and 8 of those years as Senate president, I doubt we will have much positives to talk about his impact.

Anyways u have a point, the constituents have a duty to vote out any representative that doesn't serve their interest in the national assembly but with poverty so much in Nigeria I doubt if they won't take mini bags of rice, indomie, Okada, etc and continue to vote them in

Amoto94:
Here is my prediction error rate of 5-10%:
Abia-LP
Adamawa-PDP
Akwa-Ibom- LP
Anambra-LP
Bauchi-APC
Bayelsa-PDP
Benue-PDP
Borno-APC
Cross-River-LP
Delta-PDP
Edo-LP
Ekiti-APC
Enugu-PDP
FCT-PDP
Gombe-PDP
Imo-LP
Jigawa-NNPP
Kaduna-APC
Kano-APC
Katsina-APC
Kebbi-PDP
Kogi-APC
Kwara-APC
Lagos-APC
Nasarawa-APC
Niger-PDP
Ondo- APC
Ogun-APC
Osun-APC
Oyo-APC
Plateau-LP
Rivers-PDP
Sokoto-PDP
Taraba-PDP
Yobe-APC
Zamfara- APC

This is a bold prediction. You must be that confident.