[quote author=onegentleguy post=123174894]

Funny enough, some folks have also asked me the same question, but the truth is that @currentprice and I have got no scores to settle.
He might be acting with the hope of "drawing out" a thing or 2 from me, sometimes deploying crafty and frenzied means, but nothing more to it I think.










My oga I believe you have clients you recommend stocks to buy and manage. Do you give them time frame to likely achieve the new value. If you ask your client to buy IB at 4.50 and it takes 3 yrs to make presumed target value. Do you think he will give you credit for that.He may see it as something that was bound to happen with little
salute to you. And another makes recommendations and it hits 100 percent target within a year.I believe that is the difference
Nevertheless, you both are of great asset here.keep the good work

Ades1:


OK!

Fidelity done tank.

Please sell may x baker

ogbs2020:

Fidelity done tank.
Please sell may x baker

Your own is always SELL SELL SELL! so that @low price you can BUY BUY BUY! please when will you always say BUY BUY BUY!

Mfunkynation:

Your own is always SELL SELL SELL!
so that @low price you can BUY BUY BUY!
please when will you always say BUY BUY BUY!

.

Funny girl ?!

I don't fall in love with stocks.

The reason l recommend a sell is because cowboys have moved on from the stock.

She moved from 4.15 to 4.45.
Cowboys have dumped it already.

Look at fidelity now... It has been dumped as predicted.

I will only give you buy advise if asked?.

onegentleguy:
Notification On Insider Share Dealings of some companies as reported on NGX Portal Today, May 16.

UBA
• Mr Ugochukwu Nwaghodoh (ED) bought aggregated volume of 2,381,000 of UBA at an average price of N8.40 per unit share on May 15.

ACCESSCORP
• Okey Nwuke (Director in Access Bank) bought 2,000,000 units of Access Corp at a price of N10.20 per unit share on May 16.

• Herbert Wigwe made an indirect purchase for 75 million units of Access Corp at N9.90 on May 12 through Tangen Holdings.

UNITED CAPITAL
• Mr Ebere Ohiri (Business & RM Officer) sold 7,617 units of United Capital at a price of N13 per unit share on May 15.

It's been largely a shopping spree at the NGX nowadays.
It is well

i am still owing you 3 bottles of beer
which industrial stocks will you encouraged me to buy
gsk
flourmill
unilever

Mfunkynation:

Your own is always SELL SELL SELL!
so that @low price you can BUY BUY BUY!
please when will you always say BUY BUY BUY!

You want to improve his monkey hunting business. You no see he is still a learner in the business .He doesn't know for you to succeed in that in this thread you need alot of professional touch to convince your mugu using FA or TA

Redoil:
i am still owing you 3 bottles of beer
which industrial stocks will you encouraged me to buy
gsk
flourmill
unilever

Mbok,
don't give him beer!
We need him to have a clear mind in other to point some COYS for us to do due diligence!

Redoil:
i am still owing you 3 bottles of beer.
which industrial stocks will you encouraged me to buy
gsk
flourmill
unilever

I'd say you divide that fund into 2 parts with a portfolio weighting of 70-30% or 65-35% in UNILEVER and GSK respectively.

I think the time for FLOUR MILL will come. It does have potential value, but I don't see it delivering that much return in the short term.
I"d prefer to wait until I see a thing or 2 begin to manifest in their reports... but that's just me.

The last time we recommended FLOUR MILLS was when it traded below N14. It has never retested that price since then.
Again, this was a time when many could not see the good in their "perceived" bad financial print. (see link to article; https://www.booksie.com/595806-value-investing-the-sentimental-way)
Then we later talked about the likely impact that could come from their HFM acquisition. (read here; https://www.booksie.com/663035-a-bank-and-2-flour-milling-company)

As for that part in italics, I'd prefer a bottle of non-alcoholic wine and Nkwobi or fresh fish pepper soup.

Regards

@ogbs2020, please kindly advise what to buy

Thanks

ogbs2020:
.

Funny girl ?!

I don't fall in love with stocks.

The reason l recommend a sell is because cowboys have moved on from the stock.

She moved from 4.15 to 4.45.
Cowboys have dumped it already.

Look at fidelity now... It has been dumped as predicted.

I will only give you buy advise if asked?.

Mfunkynation:

Mbok,
don't give him beer!
We need him to have a clear mind in other to point some COYS for us to do due diligence!

...well said!
I have since told him what we prefer.

It is well

Gtco ..watching**

lancee:
Gtco ..watching**

The kind vex wey GT dey vex ehnnnn....
Now @26.10......Up with +N1....

GT is now forcing ZENITH to move .....

MANSARD: Sighted @2.73......this one go still touch 3 las las.

Cornerstone: Na +N1 stock.... We go see how it will go.

If PFIs should even come, they'll be found in the likes of GT and other solid stocks....

yMcy56:

The kind vwx wey GT dey vex ehnnnn....
Now @26.10......Up with +N1....

Dumped around 19 then

.NB
Making waves since yesterday......
Any news?

lancee:
Dumped around 19 then

Even went as low as 16.80/16.85...

Hope those lamenting then are now smiling.......that's if they've not sold in panic and at loss....

Watching ACCESS, cos we don't even know what's wrong with that one ........E go still move sha. Its own time will come...

FTNCOCOA has been moving.
Now Full bid with 21M, any news?

Abbasmh:
FTNCOCOA has been moving.
Now Full bid with 21M, any news?

Ahh. This feels like pandemic season 🤣🤣

yMcy56:

Even went as low as 16.80/16.85...

Yeah u right I rem'ed

yMcy56:

Even went as low as 16.80/16.85...

Hope those lamenting then are now smiling.......that's if they've not sold in panic at loss....

Watching ACCESS, cos we don't even know what's wrong with that one ........E go still move sha.

Hopefully , warming after marked down

yMcy56:

Even went as low as 16.80/16.85...

Hope those lamenting then are now smiling.......that's if they've not sold in panic at loss....

Watching ACCESS, cos we don't even know what's wrong with that one ........E go still move sha.

ACCESS will answer the call home in time.

Zagee:
3.12 ceiling, can that be broken by next week?
***

Resistance battle

Zagee:
ACCESS will answer the call home in time.

It has to.....at the right time....
Don't know why they kept keeping the price down....

Zenith don Waka reach 25...

GT 26.35.....26.50.......26.70.....
........pullback, now @26....

yMcy56:

It has to.....at the right time....
Don't know why they kept keeping the price down....

Zenith don Waka reach 25...
GT 26.35...

GT running like it stole something.

uba & access still sleeping

fbnh ??NO result

Does anyone have information on when UACN is expected to publish their Q1 report? Your insights would be appreciated, thank you.

Zagee:
Resistance battle

Support now @2.98/3.........
Support broken......sighted @2.77...

UBA 8.75....

yMcy56:

Support now @2.98/3.......

As long as it doesn't come below 2

Abbasmh:
FTNCOCOA has been moving.
Now Full bid with 21M, any news?

The obtained about $6Million loan from a foreign company. How that translates to immediate value is what I don't know.

BullBearMkt:
Does anyone have information on when UACN is expected to publish their Q1 report? Your insights would be appreciated, thank you.

Hope this is what you seek sir..

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/38424_UAC__OF_NIGERIA_PLC.-_QUARTER_1_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2023.pdf

onegentleguy:
A breakdown of the revenue of different coys and how their cost line impacted earnings delivery.

Pertinent questions;
1) What companies were (more) efficient at optimizing cost? (an offshoot of better CIR and improved AsY)
2) What companies were better at earnings delivery? (ref: higher NPM, ROIC/ROCE, CROIC, CCC, CGPM etc)

A focus on the banking sector and any Jack will clearly see the logicality in choosing GTB ahead of ZENITH and UBA ahead of ACCESS at present. (portfolio weighting in view)

ZENITH amassed over 87.9% more RM (revenue margin) than GTB, yet GT delivered over 1,020bps in NPM than it.
Similarly, ACCESS amassed near 78% more RM than UBA, yet UBA delivered about 1,132 bps in NPM than it.
...a clear indication of their efficiency at utilizing less capital to deliver more!

Notice the wide margin btw UBA & ACCESS. ...even more than that btw GTB & ZENITH.
Again, notice the slight difference in key VPDs (NPM, CGPM, JPBG, CBR/CRM, AsY/AsQ etc) btw ZENITH and UBA.
UBA is doing something right!

GTB has the highest NPM. ...a clear indication of her prudence, efficiency and moat-like position at delivering higher value among the key banking names.

There's something STANBIC is also doing right!
The lenders NPM is only battered by that of GTB despite having the least RM therein. (just approx 1/5 that of ACCESS)

It is not surprising that UBA, GTB and STANBIC currently has the best well diversified and effectively assigned loan & investment driven portfolios amongst DBMs.
The EM and EFIR weighting (a make-up of FL) of those 3 is yet another solid reason we prefer them ahead of their peers.

Inference: GTB, STANBIC & UBA in that order were miles more efficient amongst the top banking names.
Little wonder why they have a better AsY/AsQ in view of key VPDs and EDs in their financial print.
ZENITH and particularly ACCESS performed below par.

I love those 3 in bold but am especially fond of the last name (UBA) in view of its CMP.

A similar analysis on other (tier 2) DBMs and one can easily peg FIDELITY, STERLING BANK and FCMB as the 3 best placed coys on value accretive stance from LtR in that order.
But then again, I have a much higher preference for STERLING BANK in view of its CMP.

It's only but a matter of time before UBA and STERLING BANK reprises to reduce the wide margin of disconnect btw their CMP and intrinsic valuation. (RRM in view)
...just a matter of time!

We have said this much in the past.

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post. Due diligence still applies as always.

https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/6941#122647861
👆👆
Those who read from the link & the follow up post above and did well to act accordingly, shouldn't be surprised when they see UBA move to catch up with ACCESS... or why ZENITH is now trailing GTB after trading above it by over N3 just a few months ago.

UBA was a STEAL @ N7.7 to 7.8 ...as was STERLING BANK @ N1.4+ !!
We highlighted as much here.

Mr TIME will almost always eventually set matters straight and put them in their right perspective.

It is well

First, I want to take the time to point out that this is not a recommendation, but simply an observation from my tinkering. It is not for everyone, but rather for a few like-minded tinkerers. Please do not quote me if this is not your thing, and it is not mandatory to reply to every post.

I noticed an interesting relationship between Zenith Bank and UBA. They are very correlated, meaning that they tend to move together over a sufficient amount of time. In fact, their correlation is about 0.87, measured from 2021 to date. I attached a scatter plot of UBA vs Zenith Bank, which shows how the prices align neatly. I then ran linear regression, which you can see as the red line. Linear regression means fitting a straight line to data when there is suspicion that the data has a linear relationship.

The linear regression line, like any straight line equation, has a slope and an intercept. If we put these together, we get the equation U = 2.66 + 0.22*Z, where U is the UBA price and Z is the Zenith Bank price.

U = 2.66 + 0.22Z is a model describing the linear relationship of UBA and Zenith Bank.

Because the line was fitted, if you impute Z, U will vary from the actual UBA price. This is where we can benefit from the equation. Eventually, either the UBA price will come down to meet the estimated value or Z will go up to match the estimate. How do I know this is true? Below is another plot showing the UBA price minus U over time. You can see that the UBA price is always within +0.75 Naira to -0.75 Naira of U Naira.

This suggests that the linear regression model is a good fit for the data. We can use this model to make predictions about the future prices of UBA and Zenith Bank. For example, if we know the current price of Zenith Bank, we can use the model to predict the future price of UBA and and the other way round .

GANDALF1:


Unfortunately, that might not happen in the near future. I have been following NB's trading pattern for a while and there is something obviously going on in that company.

What it is, I do not know yet. But I suspect that the company is silently buying back the bonus shares it recently listed from the market and I might be wrong.

I also noticed that nobody is saying anything about the company (no single broker or analyst recommendation), which is a perfect cover to complete any wayo buyback in peace before announcement.

Finally, this company was just in the market a few months ago to sell CPs and yet they declared dividends afterwards. This doesn't add up, as what a company facing working capital shortage would do in the case would be to retain the earnings recorded and explain to shareholders (instead of borrowing), which leaves so much to questions as per what that CP money is to be used for. Could it be that Heineken wants to increase their control, I don't know. Are they thinking of repeating champion breweries, it is possible.

I dived in here when I saw the anomaly in trading pattern (with an unusual daily trade of 28million shares on one occasion for a stock that only does less than a million daily on a normal basis) and I am willing to wait for as long as it takes for them to reveal what is going on. If I turn out to be wrong, I take my loss and move.

THIS IS NOT A BUY RECOMMENDATION AND I COMPLETELY ADVISE THAT NO ONE FOLLOWS MY POST AS THEIR REASON TO BUY NB. DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE AS YOU ARE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR TRADES.

The journey has begun!