femu:


If the share too crash wont that mean some of the stakeholders risk losing their majority control?

Naira no get value again

Oga mi, notin dey happen. Dis no be soludo era. Na still majority dey control o. Shey u tink say if uba wan do recapitalisation, tony go allow one outsider enter. U see wetin dey happen for FBN too, nothing go touch majority o.

Dat na why I been say dis recapitalisation news no go move anything. E don tey wey banks don sabi sey d tin dey come so dem don ready for ground and don do dia tins. Anyone wey dey tink say thunder go strike twice dey play ni o.

My own appeal be say, make nobody go collect loan again dey tink say bank share price go double or triple after new recapitalisation, u go just collect N50k for N500k loan after 20 years like dat bros wey share story wey touch.
Igi pawpaw o ni wo pawa o.

Make we dey watch. The game must favour us

All Nigeria first tier banks are capable of any recapitalization CBN is coming up with... You can take this statement to the bank

I agree stocks like UBA still have over 15% upside, Zenith tp is about N41 and then you still get your dividends but UBA will struggle to replicate the excellent EPS for Q2 2023 in 2024. A correction will follow a decline in revenue for some banks by mid 2024 while other companies will have the potential to support the bulls in the 2nd half of 2023.
I belief backward integration by IB should have started to mature, WAPCO, MTN and others will make investors smile by then.

If only we can have a predictable and stable FX regime, to allow more dollar inflow, the NSE will stay bullish into 2025.
Retail investors participation in the exchange is improving as seen in penny stock rallies recently, though with a lot of uninformed purchases

BabsO2:


I don't see any market correction in the horizon as long as the oil price stays strong above $70.

Stocks like UBA, many banks and a couple of other stocks have not reached fair prices. But a few stocks are trading in a PE bubble and may correct as investors and traders do their thing. The devaluation this year has propped up the valuation of many banks and reset share prices up in devalued Naira with not much to correct. However, for banks one needs to look out for potential rise in impairment charges that could lead to valuation losses and potential share price drops if it happens severely.

Hustle1:
I agree stocks like UBA still have over 15% upside, Zenith tp is about N41 and then you still get your dividends but UBA will struggle to replicate the excellent EPS for Q2 2023 in 2024. A correction will follow a decline in revenue for some banks by mid 2024 while other companies will have the potential to support the bulls in the 2nd half of 2023.
I belief backward integration by IB should have started to mature, WAPCO, MTN and others will make investors smile by then.

If only we can have a predictable and stable FX regime, to allow more dollar inflow, the NSE will stay bullish into 2025.
Retail investors participation in the exchange is improving as seen in penny stock rallies recently, though with a lot of uninformed purchases

Uninformed and gamble purchases

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wv7Ut0ygOgA
Following Cardoso's speech at CIBN yesterday. The driver for the recapitalization is the $1T GDP target for Nigeria in the next 7 years. A need for banks to be adequately sized to serve such an economy. My take from the speech is he will follow a guided process focused strictly on KPI's and delivery of some level of stability perhaps over the next one year. A true headmaster. (Cardoso was nicknamed headmaster during BAT's tenure as Governor grin. There will most likely be strict meticulous order if that nickname is to ring true in his tenure at CBN)

My take : all banks will be close to some reasonable fair values before recapitalization in a year or two's time. For example, Zenith at +N45.

Hustle1:
I agree stocks like UBA still have over 15% upside, Zenith tp is about N41 and then you still get your dividends but UBA will struggle to replicate the excellent EPS for Q2 2023 in 2024. A correction will follow a decline in revenue for some banks by mid 2024 while other companies will have the potential to support the bulls in the 2nd half of 2023.
I belief backward integration by IB should have started to mature, WAPCO, MTN and others will make investors smile by then.

If only we can have a predictable and stable FX regime, to allow more dollar inflow, the NSE will stay bullish into 2025.
Retail investors participation in the exchange is improving as seen in penny stock rallies recently, though with a lot of uninformed purchases

Do you think the revenues of banks in 2024 will be lower than that of 2022. Because that is what needs to be compared, as 2023 forex gains lies more in comprehensive income and should not be used for operating EPS and PE calculations as they are one off from currency translation gains in Naira. 2024 EPS will still be substantially higher that 2022 levels, hence supporting upward trend of bank share prices apart from the support of stepped up BVPS numbers from the 2023 gains.

Let us wait and see!

A double digit reduction in revenue will affect investors sentiment though.

And the market is not immune to the resulting sentiments, otherwise, one would expect ETI to be trading above 1.5x P/E by now like other banks.

BabsO2:


Do you think the revenues of banks in 2024 will be lower than that of 2022. Because that is what needs to be compared, as 2023 forex gains lies more in comprehensive income and should not be used for operating EPS and PE calculations as they are one off from currency translation gains in Naira. 2024 EPS will still be substantially higher that 2022 levels, hence supporting upward trend of bank share prices apart from the support of stepped up BVPS numbers from the 2023 gains.

I am beginning to believe locotrader on his opinions on the mining sector. Got an info on nassarawa state election,the governor and one of the alhaji....that sector should not be overlooked.

Can anyone help me please?

I opened an account with NISL as a stockbroker but sometime last year, they sent a mail about pausing operations or something like that and since then, I cannot log into my account with which shows my stock position.

I'm completely clueless on how to go about this:
Changing to a new broker and transferring my shared to a new broker.

Happyfellow147:
Can anyone help me please?

I opened an account with NISL as a stockbroker but sometime last year, they sent a mail about pausing operations or something like that and since then, I cannot log into my account with which shows my stock position.

I'm completely clueless on how to go about this:
Changing to a new broker and transferring my shared to a new broker.

Omo dem don piss ontop your head like rkelly.
Don Dey lock u up inside wey closet.

Happyfellow147:
Can anyone help me please?

I opened an account with NISL as a stockbroker but sometime last year, they sent a mail about pausing operations or something like that and since then, I cannot log into my account with which shows my stock position.

I'm completely clueless on how to go about this:
Changing to a new broker and transferring my shared to a new broker.

First, contact the SEC and ask about the firm in question if it's a case of suspension/licence withdrawal or any other infractions

If it's a case of suspension that may have a timeline and they will resume trading once the suspension is lifted. If it's a case of licence withdrawal it means there may not be hope of coming back though that depends on the reason for the withdrawal.

In the first case, you will need to open another stock/cscs account with another firm and continue your trading/investing while waiting for the suspension to be lifted then you can tell your new stockbroking firm to initiate an inter-house member transfer and move all your holdings.

If it's the second case, you don't need to wait, after you open another account with a new firm, start the process of moving your stocks from the dead firm.

To open a stock account with Investment One, click the 3rd link on my signature and complete the online form. Account opening is free.
You can chat me up if you need further assistance. See the numbers on my signature.

BabsO2:


Do you think the revenues of banks in 2024 will be lower than that of 2022. Because that is what needs to be compared, as 2023 forex gains lies more in comprehensive income and should not be used for operating EPS and PE calculations as they are one off from currency translation gains in Naira. 2024 EPS will still be substantially higher that 2022 levels, hence supporting upward trend of bank share prices apart from the support of stepped up BVPS numbers from the 2023 gains.

Revenue will increase but EPS will decrease for a few years and consequently, price will fall. FBN's current price rise indicates the most likely trend to come ( you can refer to my last post on this). Many big banks could issue bonuses as part of their strategy and small banks merge with big banks.

Toluway:
Now Open | MTN Nigeria Communications PLC Up to N72,104,154,000 Series 10 Commercial Paper Issuance

Where have you been Sir?

Bizibi:
I am beginning to believe locotrader on his opinions on the mining sector. Got an info on nassarawa state election,the governor and one of the alhaji....that sector should not be overlooked.

You can add IT/TECHNOLOGY to Solid Minerals as no brainers for the next three and a half years.

Happyfellow147:
Can anyone help me please?

I opened an account with NISL as a stockbroker but sometime last year, they sent a mail about pausing operations or something like that and since then, I cannot log into my account with which shows my stock position.

I'm completely clueless on how to go about this:
Changing to a new broker and transferring my shared to a new broker.

Advise

Find a new stockbroking firm to move your account there as NISL is inactive and the owner is late. It is very simple. To do that

1. Identify a new house
2. Get your CSCS statement
3. Get indemnity letter from bank to CSCS
4. Get either of share purchase contract note from NISL in the past or any dividend warrants u have collected in the past
5. Means of Identification
6. Utility bill
7. Passport photograph
8. Written letter address to CSCS of your intention to move to the new house

Get all these and give to your new stockbroker to process with CSCS on your behalf. If CSCS is satisfied with your documentations, your account shall be moved to the new house

femu:


If the share too crash wont that mean some of the stakeholders risk losing their majority control?

Naira no get value again

A crash in share price will only mean they will lose money (value) if they should sell the shares. But it doesn't affect their shareholding status, majority or minority.

Thank you so much

emmasoft:


First, contact the SEC and ask about the firm in question if it's a case of suspension/licence withdrawal or any other infractions

If it's a case of suspension that may have a timeline and they will resume trading once the suspension is lifted. If it's a case of licence withdrawal it means there may not be hope of coming back though that depends on the reason for the withdrawal.

In the first case, you will need to open another stock/cscs account with another firm and continue your trading/investing while waiting for the suspension to be lifted then you can tell your new stockbroking firm to initiate an inter-hose member transfer and move all your holdings.

If it's the second case, you don't need to wait, after you open another account with a new firm, start the process of moving your stocks from the dead firm.

To open a stock account with Investment One, click the 3rd link on my signature and complete the online form. Account opening is free.
You can chat me up if you need further assistance. See the numbers on my signature.

Thank you so much

customstreet:


Advise

Find a new stockbroking firm to move your account there as NISL is inactive and the owner is late. It is very simple. To do that

1. Identify a new house
2. Get your CSCS statement
3. Get indemnity letter from bank to CSCS
4. Get either of share purchase contract note from NISL in the past or any dividend warrants u have collected in the past
5. Means of Identification
6. Utility bill
7. Passport photograph
8. Written letter address to CSCS of your intention to move to the new house

Get all these and give to your new stockbroker to process with CSCS on your behalf. If CSCS is satisfied with your documentations, your account shall be moved to the new house

please who has received Berger paints interim dividend? Happy Sunday!

mikeapollo:

A crash in share price will only mean they will lose money (value) if they should sell the shares. But it doesn't affect their shareholding status, majority or minority.

Except if someone then capitalize on the crash to buy more volume of shares thereby displacing previous majority shareholders

I am extremely grateful for taking time to dissect this. As per new baby wey I be, make I chop this info small small else I choke

Hogwarthtrades:


I don't have NGX ETF in my portolio,The reason is i am at the mercy of NGXgroup adjusting stocks meeting certain market capitalisation to be on the benchmark of a portolio like NSE30 . I will rather choose when to sell all my position at my discretion.

Over time my portfolio is like an index fund tailored to my conviction. Suggestion to a newbie is figure out what your goal is viz: capital appreciation, steady dividend, etc . Tailor your goal around your circumstance. Everyone in the market is after capital appreciation and profit sharing from their respective investment.

I. ETFs that pay distribution - Stanbic ETF30 be mindful of the fees (expense ratio) attached to investing with them though.

II. Mutual funds - higher fees compared to ETF which may cut into your profit margin over time but that is the price you pay for having the financial house manage your funds for you. There are bunch of products by different financial houses i.e stanbic, united capital,etc if you have any particular one in mind, ask, someone here will be able to answer based on experience (personal or vicarious)

III. One suggestion to start with use the NSE30 as a guide in building your portfolio. Split your fund to 60:40 or 70:30 as you may deem fit to stable and consistently paying dividend companies : growth companies. I will go as far as splitting the dividend companies into monthly brackets so you know over time you have bucket of dividend almost all year round except for january if PZ ends up delisting. While 30% you use as dry powder sitting in a money maerket fund or use to buy shares of growth companies as you deem fit based on conversation here and you doing your due diligence. there's more to be said, but can only say based on questionasked. Shalom!!

delvzy:
I am extremely grateful for taking time to dissect this. As per new baby wey I be, make I chop this info small small else I choke

we are all for one another. Also, if you have not done so, go through this thread from a few years back, you will be surprised by the gem of info it has and answers to questions you have.

My thoughts on bank recapitalisation. First I believe we still have three categories of bank licence. Then on the big banks,they will not dilute thr shares further by coming to nse to raise fund.Instead the dividend will be stagnant or maginal increase to shareholders because they will be keeping back large chunk of earnings
And for 2024 earnings, the naija banks will still make good earnings because of various dubious ways they steal from the public When making comparison next year,you won't put dollars revaluation windfall into account .
Finally the share prices of the banks will still go up because it has not really caught up with devaluation of naira and inflation in the country. Is just because the foreign portfolio investors have not shown up then you will know the stocks in nse are too cheap.See what ote could do in fbn with little money. Then imagine if foreigners show up with bullion van of dollars at the present exchange. There prices needs to go up to meet reality and the ceo of this banks know to be on the safe side.That is reason Stanbic is trading at high price...low os

Nigerian Stock Exchange Poised for Growth Amid Cardoso's Banking Reforms
The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) is strategically positioned to benefit from the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) reform policies under Governor Olayemi Cardoso. With a commitment to ensuring price stability and financial system stability, the CBN's new direction could stimulate significant growth in the NSE​​.

A retrospective glance at the NSE's performance reveals a pattern of robust growth following comprehensive banking reforms. The 2005 reforms spearheaded by then Governor Charles Soludo catalysed a remarkable surge in market index points, propelling the NSE until the 2008 global economic downturn.

In the wake of the financial crisis, Sanusi Lamido's tenure, from 2009, introduced reforms that fortified the banking sector, thereby setting a new support level that has sustained the NSE till present day. This era of restructuring stabilized the market.

Drawing parallels from these precedents, Governor Cardoso's proposed policies are anticipated to stimulate similar, if not greater, market responses. The successful implementation of these reforms could lead to a long-term bullish outlook for the NSE All Share Index, potentially ushering in record-breaking highs. Additionally, the mandate to increase the capital base of Nigerian banks is a move that could strengthen the financial sector, providing a robust platform for the NSE to service the expanding $1tn economy​​.

Conclusion
Governor Cardoso's policies are aimed at addressing the economic challenges of rising inflation and a weakening currency​​. As these reforms take shape, the Nigerian Stock Exchange is likely to see a positive impact, potentially mirroring the upward trends observed during previous periods of significant banking reforms.

https://invst.ly/12ewny

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

BullBearMkt:


Governor Cardoso's policies are aimed at addressing the economic challenges of rising inflation and a weakening currency​​

From the bold, its safe to say that they're not done with mopping of cash. Improving TBs and bond rates will only attract more investors away from the NSE(but at what scale?).

With the proposed recapitalisation, it's safe to assume that FUGAZ are considering possible takeovers, while others are to consider merging. Identifying such candidates will be profitable.

*Providus on Unity is just the first to come.

BullBearMkt:
Nigerian Stock Exchange Poised for Growth Amid Cardoso's Banking Reforms
The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) is strategically positioned to benefit from the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) reform policies under Governor Olayemi Cardoso. With a commitment to ensuring price stability and financial system stability, the CBN's new direction could stimulate significant growth in the NSE​​.

A retrospective glance at the NSE's performance reveals a pattern of robust growth following comprehensive banking reforms. The 2005 reforms spearheaded by then Governor Charles Soludo catalysed a remarkable surge in market index points, propelling the NSE until the 2008 global economic downturn.

In the wake of the financial crisis, Sanusi Lamido's tenure, from 2009, introduced reforms that fortified the banking sector, thereby setting a new support level that has sustained the NSE till present day. This era of restructuring stabilized the market.

Drawing parallels from these precedents, Governor Cardoso's proposed policies are anticipated to stimulate similar, if not greater, market responses. The successful implementation of these reforms could lead to a long-term bullish outlook for the NSE All Share Index, potentially ushering in record-breaking highs. Additionally, the mandate to increase the capital base of Nigerian banks is a move that could strengthen the financial sector, providing a robust platform for the NSE to service the expanding $1tn economy​​.

Conclusion
Governor Cardoso's policies are aimed at addressing the economic challenges of rising inflation and a weakening currency​​. As these reforms take shape, the Nigerian Stock Exchange is likely to see a positive impact, potentially mirroring the upward trends observed during previous periods of significant banking reforms.

https://invst.ly/12ewny

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

Your write-up is well-structured and informative. However, I have a few concerns that need to be addressed.

The amount of data you've presented is insufficient to support the conclusions you've drawn. Analyzing only two or three CBN tenures is not enough to establish a strong correlation. Moreover, I hope you agree with the adage that correlation does not imply causation. While you've correctly pointed out that these governors' policies have improved system efficiency, it's important to consider the limits of further efficiency gains and their impact on the overall economy.

Is the banking system the primary factor responsible for our current economic challenges? Can a mere adjustment in monetary policies be enough to reverse our fortunes this time?

ositadima1:


Is the banking system the primary factor responsible for our current economic challenges? Can a mere adjustment in monetary policies be enough to reverse our fortunes this time?

Clearly not. A major pain point is food. If the ongoing fg-spearheaded dry season farming is anything to go bye coupled with the first release of product from the refineries, those inflation figures drops in about 6months.

ositadima1:


Your write-up is well-structured and informative. However, I have a few concerns that need to be addressed.

The amount of data you've presented is insufficient to support the conclusions you've drawn. Analyzing only two or three CBN tenures is not enough to establish a strong correlation. Moreover, I hope you agree with the adage that correlation does not imply causation. While you've correctly pointed out that these governors' policies have improved system efficiency, it's important to consider the limits of further efficiency gains and their impact on the overall economy.

Is the banking system the primary factor responsible for our current economic challenges? Can a mere adjustment in monetary policies be enough to reverse our fortunes this time?

...thank you for raising these pertinent questions!

On NSE we presently have limited "FREE" data, a request placed to NSE data centre some 5 years ago for old data that I should buy at a very exorbitant price (over N2m at that time). Which means I must have a means to recoup my money if I want to share it with a 3rd party!

Having said that, the banking sector's role in our economy cannot be overemphasised. While it is a significant factor, it is not solely responsible for our economy's growth. Therefore, adjustments in monetary policies, while critical, are part of a broader suite of reforms required to revitalize our economy. These policy shifts are anticipated to have a long-term effect, and as history suggests, the impact on the NSE may not be immediate but gradual, unfolding over several years as seen in the aftermath of the reforms initiated by Governors Soludo and Lamido - while Soludo's policy affected the economy within 1 year, it took 3 years for the impact to reflect on NSE market in the case of Lamido's.

The forthcoming reforms under Cardoso may very well set a positive outlook for the NSE, but they will be one of many factors that contribute to our nation's economic resurgence....

Well said! Good policy with long term impact but no magic bullet in the short term. The economic challenges are hydra headed

BullBearMkt:


These policy shifts are anticipated to have a long-term effect, and as history suggests, the impact on the NSE may not be immediate but gradual, unfolding over several years as seen in the aftermath of the reforms initiated by Governors Soludo and Lamido - while Soludo's policy affected the economy within 1 year, it took 3 years for the impact to reflect on NSE market in the case of Lamido's.

The forthcoming reforms under Cardoso may very well set a positive outlook for the NSE, but they will be one of many factors that contribute to our nation's economic resurgence....

BullBearMkt:

...thank you for raising these pertinent questions!

On NSE we presently have limited "FREE" data, a request placed to NSE data centre some 5 years ago for old data that I should buy at a very exorbitant price (over N2m at that time). Which means I must have a means to recoup my money if I want to share it with a 3rd party!

Having said that, the banking sector's role in our economy cannot be overemphasised. While it is a significant factor, it is not solely responsible for our economy's growth. Therefore, adjustments in monetary policies, while critical, are part of a broader suite of reforms required to revitalize our economy. These policy shifts are anticipated to have a long-term effect, and as history suggests, the impact on the NSE may not be immediate but gradual, unfolding over several years as seen in the aftermath of the reforms initiated by Governors Soludo and Lamido - while Soludo's policy affected the economy within 1 year, it took 3 years for the impact to reflect on NSE market in the case of Lamido's.

The forthcoming reforms under Cardoso may very well set a positive outlook for the NSE, but they will be one of many factors that contribute to our nation's economic resurgence....

I don't mean to come across as overly critical, but what are the underlying issues with the current banking system? I understand that the situation was dire before Soludo's tenure, with a complete lack of confidence in the sector. It's logical that reforms would lead to significant efficiency improvements.

I understand your point about the limited and unnecessarily expensive access to data. I was speaking from a statistical significance standpoint. In any case, I'm not an expert in this field.

customstreet:


Advise

Find a new stockbroking firm to move your account there as NISL is inactive and the owner is late. It is very simple. To do that

1. Identify a new house
2. Get your CSCS statement
3. Get indemnity letter from bank to CSCS
4. Get either of share purchase contract note from NISL in the past or any dividend warrants u have collected in the past
5. Means of Identification
6. Utility bill
7. Passport photograph
8. Written letter address to CSCS of your intention to move to the new house

Get all these and give to your new stockbroker to process with CSCS on your behalf. If CSCS is satisfied with your documentations, your account shall be moved to the new house

You are helpful