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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri (944 Views)
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Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by Officialgarri: 5:16pm On Feb 11 |
Nigerian banks have begun full implementation of the Central Bank of Nigeria's revised guidelines on International money transfer operations in the country. The CBN released revised guidelines for the operations of International money transfer operators (IMTOs) and instructed banks to begin paying dollars and other foreign currency payouts from abroad in naira to boost forex supply and starve the black market traders. What does this mean? It simply means every dollar you have in your domiciliary account is only imaginary. It is only dollar written on paper. When you want to collect that dollar, you will be given the equivalent at bank rate. This means more dollars for the bank and less Dollar for the people. The people need as much dollar as the bank does. In fact, the bank needs you to make more dollars so you can bring it to them. But now, only the bank has dollars and the people don’t. How is this a problem? Rather than the banks, it’s the “business people “ that need dollars the most for international business transactions. Note that the reason Nigeria remains the biggest economy in Africa and one of the largest in the world is basically due to fertile international business transactions. Dollar is the most used currency for international transactions, hence the constant need for it. You want to argue about Russia and China but we will come to that. Cont’d: But banks won’t give “business people ” dollars anymore. Who do they turn to so as to remain in business. Scenario 1: Mr Emeka needs to pay $20,000 for spare parts he ordered from China. Mr. Jinxing who is the supplier says he can never accept Naira as a mode of payment because he can't change it easily in China Mr Emeka then calls Alhaji Subairu who ‘used’ to be a Bureau D change agent in Wuse market to buy dollar notes that he will give Mr. Jinxing Alhaji subairu didn’t go to shop today because the Government is about to put him out of business. He tells Mr Emeka he would call him back in 30minutes. Alhaji Subairu actually still have $30,000 cash that he had not deposited in the bank before Government came with their caterpillar to demolish the dollar black market business. Alhaji Subairu calls Mr Emeka back and tells him he doesn’t have much dollar notes left but because they’ve been good friends for over 20 years he says “I know a dollar to naira is #1500 in the bank but I’ll sell to you my good friend. However, just so I don’t run out of business completely, I’ll sell to you at a rate of #2000 naira to $1 dollar” Mr Emeka needs the dollar notes so desperately so he agrees and as a business man, he knows he will make his money back in Ladipo market. It’s the consumer buyer that will suffer it. This means the Naira has been further devalued. Because from the initial #1500 to $1 , it is now sold at #2000 to $1 due to artificial scarcity. Scenario 2: I, Investor officialgarri and superstar Airforce1 just got paid $100k and $50k cash respectively for a business transaction and a music show in Las Vegas. Doings .. We were both somewhere in Abuja and I asked Airforce1 if he’s mad or about to run mad. I’m asking him because Airforce1 said he wants to go and deposit his $50k in his Nigerian USD domiciliary account. I explained to Airforce1 that when he wants to take back his money from the bank, the bank will pay him only the Naira equivalent at #1500 to a dollar. Airforce1 says nothing is wrong with that , it’s still my money. But because I’m more exposed and business oriented, I then proposed to Airforce1 that I’d buy his dollars at the rate of #1600 to a dollar. He’s so happy and agrees. I took the cash to Alhaji Subairu in Wuse Market and sells to him at the rate of #1900 to a dollar. This means P2P transaction and we do not need the bank for dollar transactions anymore. The banks begin to starve Scenario 3: (In this scenario, we will assume banks now allow the use of our ATM card to buy things online using USD) Lalasticlala (not the Nairaland moderator) sees a computer he likes on AliExpress and wishes to pay with his Nigerian bank card. In one click , he was debited in just the Naira equivalent. In two weeks, his laptop trully arrived. He was happy with his bank, AliExpress and Nigeria. But what he didn’t realize is that Seun(not Nairaland founder) who is a “working boy” has an IQ of 165 In fact Seun remembers that he made so much money from dollar arbitrage till late 2021 when the CBN said “enough is enough” Seun just discovered that like before, foreign fintechs are now accepting our cards again and they charge at the official rate of #1500 So Seun launches Omo-ogbon fintech app and begins to buy dollars at the official rate. “But why are you buying dollars ?” Lalasticlala asked Seun. Seun said “Dey play. Shay it’s Buhari’s anti-money laundering policy that made you see me finish “ So Seun began to use his digital dollars in his Omo-ogbon App to buy USDT (crypto version of dollars which is usually sold at around the prevailing black market rate) So in his repeat wash and rinse procedure, he has dragged Buhari’s legacy in the mud Russian Scenario: Russia is at war and despite the high sanctions from major countries, their Rubble is strong because they transact in Rubbles instead of the dollar. Russia is at war and they have a big ally which is a major market in the world —China, so they shifted their market. But let’s leave china out, Russia gives out gas to Europe (UK, France, Germany e.t.c) or Europe will starve or spend double if not more to get gas from another continent Nigeria in this instance is a member of OPEC which means we can’t really determine the currency of exchange on our own. The OPEC abducted the US dollars as it’s means of exchange in the 1971 and 1973 agreement, hence, PETRODOLLARS Don’t forget that we refine our oil overseas as well. America’s leverage against the world is the dollar and President Vladmir Putin further confirmed this in his February 6 Tucker Carlson interview. Therefore, transacting Oil which is our major source of income outside the International Market currency is almost impossible So why did the FG through the banks implement this policy? Your banks told FG that 80% of Nairalanders have at least $20k each in their doms. Rich rich people So they are hoarding the money that should be out there in the market. Note that Dollars asides market forces can be affected by News either positively or negatively. I saw a nairalander’s comment that said he was on a queue in the bank to collect his money. Hence, Panic withdrawals. Everyone will panic then lots of people will go to the bank to collect their change before the Government begins to give them #100 to one dollar. This panic withdrawals mean more money for the FG. Lagos sense. Gradually and without announcement, the policy will be reversed. Are the banks happy with this policy? Yes for Now and No later We are in a difficult situation and the country is in a dire need of production. Production leads to export. Export leads to more dollars. More dollars mean it will lose its value gradually and this inturn leads to Naira appreciation. Oil Agriculture Tech e.t.c are key to this development Rest in Peace Herbert Wigwe Modified: 1:17pm Now the FG/CBN are back on track The CBN has decided to continue to supply the BDC dollars , however at what seemed to be a pegged rate. It would have been wrong to starve them completely. This Government for a fact is showing workings...not Cho Cho Cho like our Chinese man ![]() 8 Likes 1 Share
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Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by MadamExcellency: 5:23pm On Feb 11 |
If I want to buy goods from Alibaba or any oversee manufacturer, I will transfer the dollars in my domiciliary account to the supplier. Many people won't withdraw dollar cash as per se. It is for business. 1 Like |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by Officialgarri: 5:31pm On Feb 11 |
MadamExcellency:While MadamExcellency keeps money in her dom basically for business transactions, HisExcellency gets paid his wage from Fiverr and Upwork and that's what he withdraws to feed his family. Basically, money in dom accounts are not just there for business. It could be savings as well 6 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by MadamExcellency: 5:33pm On Feb 11 |
Officialgarri: Who told you I don't do upwork? |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by Officialgarri: 5:43pm On Feb 11 |
MadamExcellency:I'm only giving a scenario. You should get the main point already 7 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by gaby(m): 6:09pm On Feb 11 |
Nice analysis... I am my own Alhaji Subairu. My money dey under my mattress. My price or no deal. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by Afospecialk: 6:21pm On Feb 11 |
Igbo and their beer parlour analysis 😀🤣 So we should allow some people to hold Dollar im their account while the country is suffering for the currency? If you lack comprehensive knowledge of the subject matter why no ask people around you to analyze it for you.? The policy is to annihilate people starching the dollar im their account while others suffers for it. Then is frown at people trading dollar on the street. Why would some people be selling dollar on the street to make profit bcs they have connections while the economy suffer for the same dollars? No politician will be able to withdraw dollars and starch it in their house any longer If you are not happy about it go to court 3 Likes |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by skj1377(m): 6:38pm On Feb 11 |
Officialgarri: Your last paragraph is lies or crap. What is republic of Togo, Benin , Cameron and Niger republic producing ![]() ![]() Local production will assist the purchasing power of locals . Exported goods will not increase dollar supply to Nigeria because all businesses men exporting already have accounts in those countries and readily keep their dollars in their foreign account overseas and not even in local banks. Our politicians with help of Road contractors and funny contractors also help ship out state allocations in dollars. Federal government and MDA are doing same. The Naira is falling due to high demand from corruption and not business transactions. The Naira should be fixed at N80 to $ and government should tighten both import funding and unnecessary or frivolous dollar requests. 2 Likes |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by Realdeals(m): 6:44pm On Feb 11 |
The question should be why do you need cash withdrawal for the USD? I have a Dom account linked to my PayPal, payment will just be deducted for whatever service or product I need, still carried out a transaction last Thursday. If I need to convert to naira, bank will change it at the prevailing market rate. |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by Officialgarri: 7:04pm On Feb 11 |
Realdeals:From the basic analysis and scenario, you still ask what dollar notes are needed for ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() 7 Likes
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Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by Paraman: 7:08pm On Feb 11 |
MadamExcellency:I thought the policy won't affect people with domiciliary accounts |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by Officialgarri: 7:09pm On Feb 11 |
Afospecialk:You know the title of this thread alone is enough to understand the purpose of this thread . No be everything be fight. You can counter my argument with your own facts and I can agree or disagree. I'm not Igbo by the way, however, it's not a crime to be one 6 Likes |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by ivolt: 7:10pm On Feb 11 |
hmm |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by coputa(m): 8:11pm On Feb 11 |
BANKS AND BLACK MARKET OPERATIONS ARE LIKE THE TEETH AND THE TONGUE |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by falcon01: 8:14pm On Feb 11 |
Officialgarri: Damn bruh!! I like your analogy. Even the most ignorant person will understand it 1 Like |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by Cassandraloius: 10:27pm On Feb 11 |
Some people don't read. |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by lwisee: 6:14am On Feb 13 |
I don't totally agree with your analysis. If I have dollars in my dom account, I can use it to buy whatever I want from China or any other Country outside Nigeria.You don't really need physical dollar in Nigeria. 1 Like |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by Officialgarri: 3:24pm On Feb 13 |
lwisee:Dollar was 1480 when I made this post . Today dollar is 1537 ![]() The analysis is straightforward actually. It's not rocket science ![]() Because you don't need physical dollar doesn't mean Mr Emeka doesn't need it ![]() 5 Likes |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by Blackfire(m): 7:27pm On Feb 13 |
Basically we are in trouble Before this tinubu utopia economic policies will germinate any good , 1 dollar = #7,000 Will there still be ronu 1 Like |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by Paraman: 7:39pm On Feb 13 |
Realdeals:go through the OP post again |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by yang(m): 7:44pm On Feb 13 |
Dollar is headed for 7k naira per dollar Again it's simple mathematics The CBN doesn't produce Dollar and cannot target the supply of dollars To get the exchange rate correct they need to do two things 1) mop up naira liquidity,the 28% inflation rate is a pointer to what interest rate, CRR rate and what the FG bonds should be trading at. FGN is still issuing bonds at 7% while running at 28% inflation, an insult to peoples intelligence and a disgrace to send emails with such a fraud 2) stop printing naira under any guise, ways and means etc This indirectly implies reducing FGN expenditure by over 80% Stop impoverishing people APC is an evil party and Thiefinibiu is a bit thief ekperima |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by lwisee: 6:12pm On Feb 14 |
Officialgarri: Mr Emeka needs physical Dollar in Nigeria to do what? 1 Like |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by ojesymsym: 6:19pm On Feb 14 |
How are you able to achieve this please? Realdeals: |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by 9jatriot(m): 6:41pm On Feb 14 |
The guy argument get kleg... He does not seem to know that Mr Emeka needs to do an electronic transfer to whoever he wants to pay and not be asking for cash. He even also said when they pay him for a show in Las Vegas, he will now bring the cash to Nigeria. Who will pay him for a show in the US with raw cash? The analysis get k-leg lwisee: 1 Like |
Re: Implications Of CBN Policy Related To Foreign Currency -officialgarri by Officialgarri: 1:17pm On Feb 27 |
Now the FG/CBN are back on track The CBN has decided to continue to supply the BDC dollars , however at what seemed to be a pegged rate. It would have been wrong to starve them completely. This Government for a fact is showing workings...not Cho Cho Cho like our Chinese man 1 Like
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