The more I watch Cardoso and Edun struggle to come to grips with the abnormal situation, the more I am convinced they are not the right men for this season.

First, I personally give them their due for at least hustling to find solutions. They are not just staying in their offices, crying or looking at the ceiling to divine answers from the silent ceiling. They are moving and throwing everything they can at the abnormality known as the Nigerian economy.

They have issued over a dozen new policies in less than a year, dropping one Ikoyi-minded policy one after the other at a dizzying pace, and sometimes the new moves contradict the previous ones. They never looked at their surroundings to know they are actually operating in a Fadeyi environment

Still, they keep moving and we have to respect them for that even you who grew up in Fadeyi can see that they are trying to operate with an Ikoyi mindset in the jungles of Fadeyi or the old Ajegunle

I like the economic Siamese Twins of Edun and Cardoso, but with their latest move of raising interest rates—the highest one-time raise Nigeria has ever seen (they raised rates by over 400 basis points!). It is clear they are out of their depth and have not yet understood that they are dealing with a kind of animal nobody taught them about in the Ivy League schools they attended. This is not the economics they were taught in their Kings College days. Nigerian economy is a class in Fadeyi economy now.

Nobody, when I was growing up, had too much money to chase any few goods. So when prices of Mama Ngozi’s Bournivita start going up anyhow, people handle the situation very differently. Instead of talking about theory, the elders of the street will have a meeting with people like “Brother Dada” as we call him ,who is like the wholesale supplier to Mama Ngozi and Mama Ramota to know what the hell is going on and why he is increasing prices anyhow.

If he cannot explain how his cost increased from yesterday to today to make him increase the wholesale price to Mama Ngozi the retailer, anyhow, they will burn down his shop or threaten to deal with his junior brother unless he reverses the price… and more often than not, he will

Someone should tell our economic czars they are not in Ikoyi anymore . They have entered the thickest parts of the Fadeyi jungle and need to wake up and recognize that their comfortable and predictable rules will not work here . Fact is APART FROM OTHER FUNDAMENTAL CAUSES, that I am not delving into in this piece, it’s also obvious some big players are holding all of us to ransom and instead of increasing interest rates, he needs to be getting his big boys with big muscles to go bring them to come and explain to Baba WhatsApp or ‘burn down their houses’ if they are not calming down.

Sure, these nice ajebota cultured guys are making moves, but they are all geared towards a NORMAL economist’s approach to normal economic activities. They see rising prices, so their ajebota brains identify inflation, and according to economic books, they think you cool down inflation by raising interest rates so it can stimulate savings, and reduce spending in the hopes that lesser demand or spending will bring down prices.

In Fadeyi, you don’t see inflation when prices just start rising anyhow, you see a seller about to make you and your children go hungry and you go on the attack against him or start shouting for the whole neighborhood to come and see the nonsense that Mama Ngozi is doing before you burn down her shop . Everyone then get involved and threatens to burn down her shop once it’s clear it’s profiteering going on, until she reduces prices. Problems solved

The posture of the fadeyi economist is different from the ikoyi one. They live in different realities.

Edun and Cardoso must flex their minds to the reality of our system where a few are holding us and the government hostage or leave the govt for baba to activate native-minded uncultured economists from the Fadeyi school of economics. Baba has them plenty too.

So far, all their moves are classic responses for an economy behaving in a normal way. They did not even see that we do not have normal inflation in Nigeria (i.e, too much money chasing too few goods).

In Nigeria, right now, what we have is too little money chasing too few goods and sometimes too little money chasing too much goods. I cannot say it is inflation, and I cannot say it is deflation. It has no name or definition in Harvard economic schools or in Ikoyi club discussions .

The Nigerian economy is sui generis, and it is time our economic leaders threw away their books and looked this thing in the eye and made some out-of-the-box moves to get it under control, or Zimbabwe here we come (sure, tell me that can never happen in Nigeria, you hear?).

How can anyone say we have normal inflation (that is a case of too much money chasing few goods) when salaries have been stagnant for years? Where the money people have to spend today, is LESS than what they had to spend last year. Even youth corpers used to be paid N33k, but most are now being paid N31k, if at all, according to my very recent research. So where is the ‘too much money’ chasing ‘few goods’ coming from for Cardoso to think it’s reducing the purchasing power of the people is what will solve it?

In fact, in some cases, we are having a weird situation of less money chasing MORE goods, but the prices of those goods are not going down according to normal economic imperatives. Instead, the prices keep going up!

My senior brother, Ola, an architect, keeps telling me there is plenty of rice in some place called Ogere or something, and he also mentions a few other places… and insists rice is not scarce. Yet, the price of rice kept going through the roof.

Someone just also said the same thing here, and some of us are jumping on them, but have you gone out to buy rice and didn’t see a bag to buy? So rice is not scarce. Yet the price keeps going up. Totally making nonsense of all the economic books we know.

We witnessed it live a few weeks ago where the CBN ordered ALL banks to sell their dollar reserves in the normal economist expectation that when they dump billions of dollars into the market, it will crash the exchange rate. Yet what happened? Exchange rates actually went up as more dollars entered it! And on The same day too! That is when I started having a headache.

This is not the economy people like Lord Keynes or Lord Malthus have ever seen before writing their economy books that Cardoso is still flipping to find solutions. This is a Fadeyi economy being manipulated by ‘Brother Dada’ and his paddies . It’s time the elders visit them or burn down their shops!

As crazy as it sounds, right before our eyes, our economy is totally defying economic logic. There IS rice everywhere, but the price of rice is rising instead of dropping, even when purchasing power has declined or not increased for most people.

So, a man stands at a store to buy a bag of rice with his N65k that he had that same morning for N64k. Without leaving the place, and without having more money in hand, the market owner answers the phone, then turns to him, and says, ‘the price is now N75k’.

How do you solve that kind of ‘inflation’ problem by increasing interest rates?

Seriously?

How can raising the interest rate even affect the spending power of people who never got bank loans or saved their money in the bank, to begin with? We all know our banks do not lend anyone money unless you know the MD or are a big conglomerate like Dangote, who saves nothing but borrows everything. How will an interest rate increase affect his spending?

It is a totally crazy scenario, and all these Harvard approaches or normal textbook responses are only going to make things worse. Mark my words unless these guys go native and start doing something really mad.

I do not have the answers myself, but I am sure the traditional approach will not work. There is nothing normal or traditional about what we are seeing.

My name is Ope Banwo . I am not an economist but I did grow up in Fadeyi

https://insidebusiness.ng/213543/edun-and-cardoso-ikoyi-bred-economists-trying-to-operate-fadeyi-economy/

Interesting read, and valid points made also.

The author while not proposing any solution is acknowledging there are wicked elements whose activities within the value chain of the economy, need to be put under more control.

The author made some valid points about the policies we are adopting to address the economic problems facing the country. I’ve argued severally on this forum that the CBN needs to adopt some crude tactics in tackling the forex and inflation problems.

Most of the bretton woods policies Cardoso is trying to implement are meant for normal countries with normal citizens. Nigeria is an absolutely abnormal country with extremely abnormal citizens. Fiscal and monetary authorities need to come up with a combination of crude and refined economic policies that are designed specifically to address the abnormalities of the country.

Excellent article.

Economic orthodoxy is our biggest undoing.

This is what happens when your education system is imported wholesale with no incorporation of local indigenous realities.

Western textbook solutions to African problems have always been inappropriate and even catastrophic.

Do we even have any Nigerian economic theories developed by Nigerian economists specifically for the Nigerian/African economic orbit?

Or they all just parrot the theories of European economists of the 19th century?

The crazy thing is A multi-ethnic country economy being controlled by people from one tribe.
Why won't Dangote and Bua sabotage them.

Until we come to appreciate PDP APPROACH to governance,Apc can never get any right .

seunmsg:
The author made some valid points about the policies we are adopting to address the economic problems facing the country. I’ve argued severally on this forum that the CBN needs to adopt some crude tactics in tackling the forex and inflation problems.

Most of the bretton woods policies Cardoso is trying to implement are meant for normal countries with normal citizens. Nigeria is an absolutely abnormal country with extremely abnormal citizens. Fiscal and monetary authorities need to come up with a combination of crude and refined economic policies that are designed specifically to address the abnormalities of the country.

Ehn! Ija ilara bere. Kadoso is attacking Cardoso. Wonders shall never end.

Aptly put. You need Sanusi or Soludo mindset to get this country back on track. Cardoso and co need to be street smart. Our economy is not the usual one.

Lovely write up and nice observation..

anyways this problem is a global thing. Turkey, Argentina even USA is experiencing inflation. But it will hit Nigeria harder since we don’t produce most of the things we consume. and the locally produced things needs foreign raw materials like fertilizer etc

To survive make dollar or start producing something locally and sell/export

Rodimi20000000:
Lovely write up and nice observation..

anyways this problem is a global thing. Turkey, Argentina even USA is experiencing inflation. But it will hit Nigeria harder since we don’t produce most of the things we consume. and the locally produced things needs foreign raw materials like fertilizer etc

To survive make dollar or start producing something locally and sell/export

EFCC arrested some 41 trucks of some northern business men exporting to nearby countries. Is their any reason for that? According to the writter, their is no scarcity of produce. Why then is the government not letting producers to export in other to earn the needed fx that will alleviate the situation.
The whole bunch are incompetent as alluded by Ola the writter.

seunmsg:
The author made some valid points about the policies we are adopting to address the economic problems facing the country. I’ve argued severally on this forum that the CBN needs to adopt some crude tactics in tackling the forex and inflation problems.

Most of the bretton woods policies Cardoso is trying to implement are meant for normal countries with normal citizens. Nigeria is an absolutely abnormal country with extremely abnormal citizens. Fiscal and monetary authorities need to come up with a combination of crude and refined economic policies that are designed specifically to address the abnormalities of the country.

Economic problem caused by who?

Tellmeastory:
Excellent article.

Economic orthodoxy is our biggest undoing.

This is what happens when your education system is imported wholesale with no incorporation of local indigenous realities.

Western textbook solutions to African problems have always been inappropriate and even catastrophic.

Do we even have any Nigerian economic theories developed by Nigerian economists specifically for the Nigerian/African economic orbit?

Or they all just parrot the theories of European economists of the 19th century?

As per your other thread, I believe this our neocolonialism is far worse than anything the British did.

Tinubu and the rest of the political elite know what needs to be done but they aren't ready to go down that path.

a4cube:
Economic problem caused by who?

Years of wrong economic policies.

The nigeria economy is very abnormal and applying theoretical economic principles are backfiring.
Buhari shouldn't have gotten close to that sit in the first place ,the damage started from him but we cannot absolve tinubu of the blame because he supported and defended every damaged carried out by buhari.

It is very obvious tinubu is not the one that will change the economy, everything is not alright with him.
He and his paddies have brought more burden on the economy.

Rodimi20000000:
Lovely write up and nice observation..

anyways this problem is a global thing. Turkey, Argentina even USA is experiencing inflation. But it will hit Nigeria harder since we don’t produce most of the things we consume. and the locally produced things needs foreign raw materials like fertilizer etc

To survive make dollar or start producing something locally and sell/export

What Nigeria is experiencing is hardly inflation as we know it. That is the import of the article. To coin a much detested phrase, they should look for home-grown solutions to our very Nigerian problem. I suspect Cardoso is being leaned on to soft-pedal, because I believe he knows the economy is being sabotaged. I think he is very capable. He just needs to turn a blind eye to politics and ethnicity and take the bull by the horns, no matter what or who. Very tough call in a peculiar country like Nigeria.

Tinubu and his gangs of thieves has nothing to offer that is why Nigeria economy is in tatters. Unless APC ready to fight Fulani bandits they created to disrupt GEJ government the price of commodity will continue going up because enough is not being produce

Arielle:

What Nigeria is experiencing is hardly inflation as we know it. That is the import of the article. To coin a much detested phrase, they should look for home-grown solutions to our very Nigerian problem. I suspect Cardoso is being leaned on to soft-pedal, because I believe he knows the economy is being sabotaged. I think he is very capable. He just needs to turn a blind eye to politics and ethnicity and take the bull by the horns, no matter what or who. Very tough call in a peculiar country like Nigeria.

Unless you want Cardoso to leave his office and enter farm there is nothing someone seating in his a/c office in Abuja can do to redeem Nigeria economy

The author is very wrong. It's like encouraging the government to burst the warehouse of dealers and forcefully taking their goods.

What I suggest is for government to import essential goods especially foodstuff. Flood the market with those and those greedy people will be forced to reduce prices

Write-up that proposes no meaningful solution is just a waste of everyone's time.
Fadeyi MO to burn Mama Ngozi's Bournvita shop indeed.
The "best" football players and coaches are always in their living rooms watching the game on TV.

seunmsg:
The author made some valid points about the policies we are adopting to address the economic problems facing the country. I’ve argued severally on this forum that the CBN needs to adopt some crude tactics in tackling the forex and inflation problems.

Most of the bretton woods policies Cardoso is trying to implement are meant for normal countries with normal citizens. Nigeria is an absolutely abnormal country with extremely abnormal citizens. Fiscal and monetary authorities need to come up with a combination of crude and refined economic policies that are designed specifically to address the abnormalities of the country.

Mutairu Cardoso, why not call your brother on the phone and tell him what you're saying here. Don't be disturbing our peace with your grandstanding. Nobody is deceived.

Electoral choices should have consequences.

There's no need for long grammar. This is what you get when the insouciantly ethnocentric impostor they call Tinubu insists on appointing his 'familiar' Lagos Boys to hold important offices that are bigger than them. It is impossible to give what you don't have. Stupid and empty elements like Edun and Cardi whatever whose only 'accomplishment' was to serve as commissioners under the same Tinubu, followed by patch patch and padi padi appointments on the boards of this or that company. No real private sector accomplishments, no real talent. Nothing. Just a long history of lurking in the shadows as Ashitwaju boys.

You sacrifice competence and fit just because you want to empower your boys and place your fingers on 'juicy' institutions.

You think Obasanjo was stupid for headhunting people like Okonjo Iweala, Ezekwesili and Soludo at the time? Did he know them from anywhere before he became president?

Tribalism is bad
What if the person to save Nigeria is not actually a Yoruba man or woman.

Nigeria's economic problem just as the OP aptly put it is multi-faceted. However, it doesn't mean that it can't be solved. I've said it countless times and I'll reiterate it, Tinubu is only good at politics not governance. The rule of equity states that; 'He who must come to the table, must come with clean hands'. Is Tinubu himself clean?

Secondly, he's playing too much politics with the problem on ground rather than confront it. What measures has he put in place to combat insecurity that is ravaging food production? Food importation is discouraged, yet insecurity will not allow local production to thrive.

Thirdly, the so-called 'Economic saboteurs' can be brought to book. They are not aliens neither are they operating in the shadows; we all know them. But again, Tinubu is too dirty to catch any thief. That is where Obasanjo comes in. At least, he created the EFCC and empowered them to go after corrupt officials no matter how high ranking they are.

Fourthly, Tinubu's appointment of ministers and officials has been nothing more than disappointing. Square pegs in round holes. All for political permutation and calculation. Obasanjo appointed 'brains' to help run his government. Goodluck did the same. What on earth is Tinubu doing? So many misfits in his cabinet.

In summary, Tinubu will go down as Nigeria's worse president if he continues on his downward spiral. As bad as Buhari's government was, Tinubu's government is already turning out worse. Nigerians are in for a long ride!


PS- let no APC miscreant quote me to yarn rubbish, I get hot temper o.

The author is simply making excuses for the failures of the Yoruba economic team assembled by the tribalistic Tinubu just like PMB before him.
Those guys are incompetent and are simply overwhelmed.

As much as I'm not a big fan of PDP, but those guys are heads and shoulders above this evil party called APC(PMB & BAT) whose mission is to destroy Nigeria.

Nobody should exonerate Tinubu from PMB's failures. He supported all his useless policies except Naira redesign because it affected his electoral chances.

But he has shown to be clueless and even worse than PMB by acting before thinking. How can you remove subsidy before even stepping into office.
Don't be deceived,the government is still paying subsidy on PMS because of the exchange rate. The landing cost of PMS is more than N700 .

The ones that are defending this government are meant to be pitied.

The sabotage is too much!

Interesting observation and points by Mr Ope Banwo.

Greed is the bane of Nigeria. Individual interest truncates the common good for a developed society for her citizenry.

Most(a large percentage) high ranking public office holders are there to steal from the national treasury. They are not there to be solution providers but to blame and point accusing fingers till their tenure expires.
Rinse and repeat.
Nobody cares,
and, as you have said, "Nigeria is a jungle, anything goes".

michlins:
The author is very wrong. It's like encouraging the government to burst the warehouse of dealers and forcefully taking their goods.

What I suggest is for government to import essential goods especially foodstuff. Flood the market with those and those greedy people will be forced to reduce prices

will people not shout that you want to kill the local economy?