BabsO2:





These PE's are scarily high. Any slippage in anticipated growth due to the so called 5th industrial revolution and there will be major price correction.

39 Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
55 Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN):
34 Apple (AAPL):
29 Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) (META)
71 NVIDIA (NVDA):
28 Alphabet (GOOGL)
53 Tesla (TSLA):

I always respect your objective views (I've been a follower of your NGX banking sector analyses for about 3yrs now).
Although I have GOOGL(A) and have been endlessly waiting for an opportunity to enter MICROSOFT, I agree with the concern that these stocks are trading at prices with their future earnings and growth factored in already. The future is what nobody can predict, and that's why moderate exposure to them would be advised. The NYSE market is diverse, and bubbles start when everyone starts talking about the same thing. Once it's discussed by everyone on the street, it is no longer a goldmine but a trap. These companies have been on layoff sprees for over two years. This implies that the companies over-hired when economy was booming and the unpredictable "future" proved to them that noone knows tomorrow. Early birds in NVIDIA have just completed a round of 10bagger earlier this year.
That said, the retirement funds of several millions of Americans are in funds that are heavily invested in these stocks (definitely purchased when trading at double digits).

nosa2:
I no know wetin Oga Agba see oh but I was/am grateful for his challenge to my opinion. He made me adjust my spreadsheet to factor in one off FX gains and after doing that I saw that there was a clear dichotomy in banking stocks.

This dichotomy made me dump my FCMB and add more GTB and some UBA.

To be honest I almost dont want the stocks to rally just yet. I am looking to raise some more cash to buy even more. I firmly believe that too much of a good thing is a great thing

P.S Abeg how my grand mother go dey say she be my pikin

Boss I beg sir oo 😁
I be your pikin o.

Glad you're doing your homework well before staking your funds on some of these stocks anyway.

...

Payunsin:
I don't understand myself ooooo.
I will aim to buy fundamentally sound stocks, but will end up gambling and mopping veristaskapital and Oando.
I wan hammer quick, I pray I don't get hammered

KarlTom:
...

Why you dey laugh the guy na. Na right of passage. Very soon e go start to focus on making money rather than proving point

For those asking how to start trading US stocks, visit the "US stock picks alert" thread on Nairaland. Although there are no critical analyses or arguments over there as we see here; usually people mentioning stocks to buy or what just doubled their money. Chances of learning is low on such a thread, but one can get some info there. For real learning and growth in knowledge/skills together with valuable information, NSEMPA is the best I've seen!

nosa2:


Download the bamboo app. its very simple to use

Thank you

yMcy56:

Boss I beg sir oo 😁
I be your pikin o.

Glad you're doing your homework well before staking your funds on some of these stocks anyway.

We are watching

yMcy56:

My big boss, you were right about the pricing of our stocks, it doesn't make sense seeing them at ridiculous prices honestly.... especially when we consider the great revenues being made despite the harsh operating environment...

....but it is what it is for now, FA aside, pls be cautious and always seek 2nd opinion from the experts who's being on ground for long so you can monitor the market to pick at very good bargain prices.

Not saying your GT call is/was wrong o, after-all it didn't obey Oga Agba's southward call, he has not been able to enter since he exited .......but just some words of caution from your pikin in the biz.

You're welcome sir.

Bull market sha

Geregu is 900 naira. I just dey laf

Mpeace:
Geregu is 900 naira. I just dey laf

Hahahaha... officially it hasn't drop now

Mfunkynation:

Hahahaha... officially it has drop now

On which planet did you see the drop?

It is still officially N1,000

Mfunkynation:

Hahahaha... officially it has drop now

Sorry oh. It has not dropped. Its actually 1,000 per share. Na wa oh.

Payunsin:
I don't understand myself ooooo.
I will aim to buy fundamentally sound stocks, but will end up gambling and mopping veristaskapital and Oando.
I wan hammer quick, I pray I don't get hammered

The fear (panic) and greed emotions... wrecking investors since time immemorial

NASCON seems to have lost steam in recent times. Forex must have hit it so bad. Not sure if to keep on holding.... I just tire sef.

Another fantastic q1 result from conoil.But the share price refused to dance!why

Payunsin:
I don't understand myself ooooo.
I will aim to buy fundamentally sound stocks, but will end up gambling and mopping veristaskapital and Oando.
I wan hammer quick, I pray I don't get hammered

Something supernatural may be moving you towards achieving your goal of hammering quick! It is a force that you may not be able to resist or withstand. Sometimes, that is how luck smiles on people!
Enjoy your VeritasKapital and Oando largesse when it lands eventually.

4willer:
NASCON seems to have lost steam in recent times. Forex must have hit it so bad. Not sure if to keep on holding.... I just tire sef.

You better sell if you are tire of waiting, this one wey Alaji dey condemn every steps of the government you should know sey the merger na on a long thing

nosa2:


Ha! My Madam at the top. No be so oh.

My excitement for GTCO is not short term. Right now I believe the currency devaluation is well over done. Very soon the benefits of the painful reforms would start to kick in and I want to holding when all the big ogas come and buy.

Nigeria companies are being priced as though we are a war torn Nation and that doesn't make sense.

P.S I am not a Tinubu guy and the better times may not even come in his administration

My oga you dey see far.i am not a fan of him too but he is doing somethings right that will push the economy to a different level in many yrs to come.it is very funny that few companies are up to a dollar in African power house based on our population,human and God given resources.

Redoil:
How many more unit will be created by each of this banks that will not dilute their dividend payout to pittance
Fidelity Bank PLC has over 32.012 billion shares
UBA had over 34.199 billion outstanding shares
FBN Holdings Plc had over 44.87 billion outstanding shares.
Guaranty Trust Holding Company had over 29.37 billion
Zenith Bank PLC (ZENITHB) had a public float of 27.65 billion shares outstanding.
That of fidelity and first bank is something to ponder about

What is thr capital required by cbn regulations with this present OS you listed.Do you realise they are doubling the capital base and you expect the os to remain same.Or you would have preferred them going to borrow from outside in dollars. More money means more revenue to the efficient ones among them...my opinion as a business man.If you have more fund now won't you play your investment bigger in this nse.

Remember these companies are posed to replace human with humanoid robots. Some of the workers in battery production plants have been replaced by humanoid.

https://fortune.com/2024/07/03/elon-musk-tesla-bill-gates-obliterate-short-sellers-ai-robots-autonomy/

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/07/02/tesla-tremors-in-the-q2-force-make-us-wonder-whats-next/

Capitas7:


I always respect your objective views (I've been a follower of your NGX banking sector analyses for about 3yrs now).
Although I have GOOGL(A) and have been endlessly waiting for an opportunity to enter MICROSOFT, I agree with the concern that these stocks are trading at prices with their future earnings and growth factored in already. The future is what nobody can predict, and that's why moderate exposure to them would be advised. The NYSE market is diverse, and bubbles start when everyone starts talking about the same thing. Once it's discussed by everyone on the street, it is no longer a goldmine but a trap. These companies have been on layoff sprees for over two years. This implies that the companies over-hired when economy was booming and the unpredictable "future" proved to them that noone knows tomorrow. Early birds in NVIDIA have just completed a round of 10bagger earlier this year.
That said, the retirement funds of several millions of Americans are in funds that are heavily invested in these stocks (definitely purchased when trading at double digits).

nosa2:


Over N200.

ROE is currently 68% (Highest in the industry, if not the entire market)

PE is 2.41

Forward PE is 0.71

These numbers are after totally discounting any fx gains.

This bank is probably worth N400 but I will start taking profit at N200.


I HAVE NEVER SEEN A STOCK THIS CHEAP. EVER!!!!

Only down side i can see is the high Book Value

Please can you also look through First Bank?
What's the possible Fair Value?

Mankind2024:
Trading
My intrinsic mentality is investing for future wealth.
NSEMPA investors should consider investing in the Magnificent 7. Limiting oneself to NGX could lead to financial constraints. The impact of the ongoing right issues on the value of the Naira and overall portfolio outlook by 2025 remains uncertain. An analyst made a successful bet on NVDA two years ago, aiming to retire by 2030, and the investment paid off a year earlier than expected. It's becoming an investment oversight not to have a stake in the Magnificent 7 and S&P 500.
While nothing can be predicted with absolute certainty, I have a clear idea of how my investments in the Magnificent 7 and S&P 500 will likely perform in the next four years. It's challenging to predict if most stocks listed on NGX will reach their fair value estimates due to the unstable petrodollar economy and inconsistent government interference and policies. In contrast, the US economy is driven by technology, with the 4th and 5th industrial revolutions contributing significantly. The Magnificent 7 are at the forefront of this technological advancement. Yesterday, TSLA drove the market with its delivery of over 420,000 full electric vehicles. If TSLA achieves production of 1 million units per quarter and successfully launches its fully self-autonomous driverless vehicle, which is becoming a reality, then owning 1000 units could make you a dollar millionaire by 2030. The stock could trade between $1500 to $2500 by then.
Take a clue for this self investor who placed a bet on NVDA 2 years ago, he won the bet a year earlier.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMCrzNUMUag?si=VT0XtNyDEGKYat8H

YouTube crooks will lead you to the slaughterhouse. Just be careful is all I can say.

Raider76:


That is why I think people should always be advised that if you want to newly jump into a foreign market there is learning curve you have to go through. Don't just listen to the advertised potential returns.

The funny thing is these noisemakers only appear when valuations are sky high! Where was your ‘Mag 7’ noise when Tesla was trading at $105? Amazon at around $100 or so, Facebook/Meta at $88?

Like I said, be careful of all these online people/influencers. Local or foreign, a crook is a crook

nosa2:
GTB is off. This thing probably wont drink water till it reaches N90

Oga agba which kind wahala be this now.Beg oga nosa to help your ministry. He doesn't know you sold 4th quarter last year at #38 and has been waiting for it to touch down on #15 so that you can load again after 200% gain.And your stock of gari is running out and dollars can not give 50% again again unless you declares war in nigeria .

You sure you no go follow me play my bet naija stockk last last oga Agbalowomeri. Women no dey like men way get am before,lol....old money they call it in igbo language

sky2891:

Please can you also look through First Bank?
What's the possible Fair Value?

No I can't. If you can't go thgrough the trouble of learning how to value stocks yourself then you should be happy with what you are given.

P.S I will gladly help with questions that help you learn how to do the work.

Streetinvestor2:
Oga agba which kind wahala be this now.Beg oga nosa to help your ministry. He doesn't know you sold 4th quarter last year at #38 and has been waiting for it to touch down on #15 so that you can load again after 200% gain.And your stock of gari is running out and dollars can not give 50% again again unless you declares war in nigeria .

You sure you no go follow me play my bet naija stockk last last oga Agbalowomeri. Women no dey like men way get am before,lol....old money they call it in igbo language

He is looking at price and not valuation

Streetinvestor2:
Oga agba which kind wahala be this now.Beg oga nosa to help your ministry. He doesn't know you sold 4th quarter last year at #38 and has been waiting for it to touch down on #15 so that you can load again after 200% gain.And your stock of gari is running out and dollars can not give 50% again again unless you declares war in nigeria .

You sure you no go follow me play my bet naija stockk last last oga Agbalowomeri. Women no dey like men way get am before,lol....old money they call it in igbo language

Na patience we dey buy and sell for this market. Anybody wey no know is on a long thing 😂

Meanwhile I don move one step down on my babes class make I no wound😂

Agbalowomeri:


Na patience we dey buy and sell for this market. Anybody wey no know is on a long thing 😂

Meanwhile I don move one step down on my babes class make I no wound😂

The only way we would see GTCO below 30 for a sustained period is if Q2 result is abysmal. And while that is certainly a possibility it is very unlikely given the current interest rate environment.

nosa2:


No I can't. If you can't go thgrough the trouble of learning how to value stocks yourself then you should be happy with what you are given.

P.S I will gladly help with questions that help you learn how to do the work.

Please is there a formula or indices from audit reports I can use to get a company's fair value?

sky2891:

Please is there a formula or indices from audit reports I can use to get a company's fair value?

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/fundamental-analysis/09/five-must-have-metrics-value-investors.asp

happy hunting

edwardaigb:

Oando at 100

Breaking: NUPRC announces the completion of Oando, Nigeria Agip Oil Company acquisition deal  
https://nairametrics.com/2024/07/03/nuprc-announces-the-completion-of-oando-nigeria-agip-oil-company-acquisition-deal/