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Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts - Investment (7938) - Nairaland

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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:54am On Aug 01
ojesymsym:
This one na for PhD students ma, I wanted the night class version which you and one other chap have provided.

Thanks a lot

Dey play grin tongue
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Heishere: 10:55am On Aug 01
Mankind2024:
MTNN has no justification for declaring any form of loss. They generated more revenue than some banks in Nigeria. This was a deliberate move by this Nigeria-based company, notorious for draining the country's Forex reserves.

I don't agree. MTN is a goldmine. Their issue is not peculiar to MTN alone. It affects the entire industry. Look at the Airtel Nigeria financials (Not the group) and you will notice similar trend. If others publicly publish theirs, you will see it as well. I will attempt to breakdown what the issues are and then you can make your own decision:

1. Colocation contracts: In order to prevent proliferation of masts across the county, the government mandated that telecom providers should stop erecting masts and colocate with others. So as to comply, the companies sold their masts entered into long term contract with the dominant TowerCo (IHS) at the time and the payment was charged in dollars. I think IHS played a fast one on them here. Now, most of them are scrambling to get out of the contracts.

2. Forex scarcity: Almost all the equipment, support, maintenance procured in the industry is imported and therefore heavily reliant on forex. For instance, to rollout 5G requires millions of dollars in CAPEX because to a large extent you have to redesign or replace equipment, which is why there is a slow down in the rollout now and indigenous companies can't compete. During Emefiele's tenor, the industry could not access forex to purchase equipment and services. What they did was that their Group and sister companies helped purchase some of those equipment for them and recorded them as liabilities in their books. They also used LCs that are backed by restricted cash balances in Naira. These LCs were not also settled because of the forex scarcity. When Naira was devalued last year, they took advantage of the increased liquidity to settle most of those LCs at a very huge cost, which they recognized in their books. I believe this is also the reason the indigenous ones have very poor service. There is no group or sister companies to support them with Forex for procurement of necessary equipment.

3. Diesel cost: Vastly all their data centers, masts and other infrastructure run on generators and you know the price of diesel now.

4. Regulatory bottlenecks: Despite all the operational cost, the industry cannot increase their tariff cost like other industries without the regulatory approval. Their tariff has remained the same in the past 10 years and the regulatory is yet to grant them the approval to increase it. Yet, this same regulatory charge them exorbitant prices for the purchase and maintenance of spectrum licenses.

In conclusion, imagine the future where they have effectively tackled these issues, which they are currently doing. Where do you think they will be. Also, given the size and importance, MTN is now a national treasure and security. Do you know what a collapse of MTN would mean to Nigeria? You cannot nationalize such a business because the government lack the skills and capacity to maintain it. You can see what they did with MTEL. Even indigenous ones are struggling.

Caveat: I am heavy in MTN.

15 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Heishere: 10:58am On Aug 01
KarlTom:
0%


Eh! Person wey dey follow you done miss road o grin grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Adinije(f): 11:00am On Aug 01
ositadima1:


My dear, you will need a lot more units to come close; you will need about 1.6 million units to average down to 11.5 embarassed . Check your calculations or use Excel.
Aaaarrrh
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Frangel: 11:03am On Aug 01
ojesymsym:
Yes I saw it, but I non understand the mechanics of why it opened at that price. Is it a normal drop in price? Abeg help explain abeg for those of us that went to night class.

Closing price yesterday was N31.
Deduct 90k dividend = 30.10
Divide it by 3 = 10.03333. approx 10.05

The logic of dividing by 3 is you now have 3 shares (after the 2 for 1 bonus) with a total value of 30.10.

7 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56: 11:10am On Aug 01
ojesymsym:
This one na for PhD students ma, I wanted the night class version which you and one other chap have provided.
Thanks a lot
Lol.
The Pry Schl Arithmetics, addition and subtraction. grin

Think you'll also need this PhD version in case of those Companies that gives 1:8 , 1:20 kind of bonus. smiley

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Adinije(f): 11:17am On Aug 01
ositadima1:


My dear, you will need a lot more units to come close; you will need about 1.6 million units to average down to 11.5 embarassed . Check your calculations or use Excel.
Gimme excel formula biko
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mankind2024: 11:26am On Aug 01
OANDO is obeying the law of gravity.
Newton's law of universal gravitation says that every particle attracts every other particle in the universe with a force that is proportional to the product of their masses and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between their centers. Separated objects attract and are attracted as if all their mass were concentrated at their centers. The publication of the law has become known as the "first great unification", as it marked the unification of the previously described phenomena of gravity on Earth with known
astronomical behaviors.

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:28am On Aug 01
Adinije:
Gimme excel formula biko

Two calculations, and they are the same; I just used 1% in one and 8.7 in the other. If you look at the results, you'll understand why undecided. With another 100,000 units, your BE will be around 12.4, while with the previous 1.6 million units, your BE will be around 11.5. Play around with it.

Download the excel sheet "Book3"

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sophy17(m): 11:54am On Aug 01
Adinije:
Gimme excel formula biko

You can just download Stock average calculator from play store. It's easy to use to determine needed quantity and price to average down

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mankind2024: 12:33pm On Aug 01
Oh, ye defenders of MTNN, you forgot to mention the truth - that MTNN is now being run on depositor loans taken from Nigerian banks despite the huge revenue figures. Where were you when MTNN siphoned $15 billion from the Nigerian economy? Nigeria did not collapse. Nothing will happen; no one is indispensable. MTNN remains a forex guzzler. I have never seen a company that loves our forex reserves like your beloved MTNN.
Long stories change nothing. I accept the truth that MTNN is undesirable yet unavoidable.


Heishere:


I don't agree. MTN is a goldmine. Their issue is not peculiar to MTN alone. It affects the entire industry. Look at the Airtel Nigeria financials (Not the group) and you will notice similar trend. If others publicly publish theirs, you will see it as well. I will attempt to breakdown what the issues are and then you can make your own decision:

1. Colocation contracts: In order to prevent proliferation of masts across the county, the government mandated that telecom providers should stop erecting masts and colocate with others. So as to comply, the companies sold their masts entered into long term contract with the dominant TowerCo (IHS) at the time and the payment was charged in dollars. I think IHS played a fast one on them here. Now, most of them are scrambling to get out of the contracts.

2. Forex scarcity: Almost all the equipment, support, maintenance procured in the industry is imported and therefore heavily reliant on forex. For instance, to rollout 5G requires millions of dollars in CAPEX because to a large extent you have to redesign or replace equipment, which is why there is a slow down in the rollout now and indigenous companies can't compete. During Emefiele's tenor, the industry could not access forex to purchase equipment and services. What they did was that their Group and sister companies helped purchase some of those equipment for them and recorded them as liabilities in their books. They also used LCs that are backed by restricted cash balances in Naira. These LCs were not also settled because of the forex scarcity. When Naira was devalued last year, they took advantage of the increased liquidity to settle most of those LCs at a very huge cost, which they recognized in their books. I believe this is also the reason the indigenous ones have very poor service. There is no group or sister companies to support them with Forex for procurement of necessary equipment.

3. Diesel cost: Vastly all their data centers, masts and other infrastructure run on generators and you know the price of diesel now.

4. Regulatory bottlenecks: Despite all the operational cost, the industry cannot increase their tariff cost like other industries without the regulatory approval. Their tariff has remained the same in the past 10 years and the regulatory is yet to grant them the approval to increase it. Yet, this same regulatory charge them exorbitant prices for the purchase and maintenance of spectrum licenses.

In conclusion, imagine the future where they have effectively tackled these issues, which they are currently doing. Where do you think they will be. Also, given the size and importance, MTN is now a national treasure and security. Do you know what a collapse of MTN would mean to Nigeria? You cannot nationalize such a business because the government lack the skills and capacity to maintain it. You can see what they did with MTEL. Even indigenous ones are struggling.

Caveat: I am heavy in MTN.

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:36pm On Aug 01
sophy17:


You can just download Stock average calculator from play store. It's easy to use to determine needed quantity and price to average down

Yes, this is easier and quicker. Based on the target price, you can get the average down quantity. I actually downloaded one just now.

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Bagwa: 12:41pm On Aug 01
Japaul 20B Loading, Coming days smiley

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mankind2024: 12:43pm On Aug 01
This is essentially a stock split masquerading as a bonus issue. Bonus issues do not impact the stock price. The exchange should use a less confusing term to avoid misleading investors. There is a distinct difference between a stock split and a bonus issue. The recent action by UCAP, changing 1unit at N31 to 3 units at N11 each, is technically not a bonus but rather a stock split.


Frangel:


Closing price yesterday was N31.
Deduct 90k dividend = 30.10
Divide it by 3 = 10.03333. approx 10.05

The logic of dividing by 3 is you now have 3 shares (after the 2 for 1 bonus) with a total value of 30.10.

9 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by USAfall2024: 12:50pm On Aug 01
Mankind2024:
This is essentially a stock split masquerading as a bonus issue. Bonus issues do not impact the stock price. The exchange should use a less confusing term to avoid misleading investors. There is a distinct difference between a stock split and a bonus issue. The recent action by UCAP, issuing 1 unit at N31, is technically not a bonus but rather a stock split.



Exactly! Stock split is a more convenient term. Bonus issue should be in form of companies giving back free shares (maybe gotten from a shares-buy-back scheme) to existing shareholders without price changes. But I also understand why NGX has to effect the share price deduction for freely created/bloated bonus shares to maintain the company’s true market cap. The NGX can enforce the use of the term ‘stock split’ in place of ‘bonus issue’ going forward.

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56: 1:05pm On Aug 01
MTNN
Available @180

OANDO
Pulled back to 23......currently @23.55......22.85...
How low can it go from here again?
Let's wait and see....
Waiting for another good news to ginger the driver...
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Raider76: 1:06pm On Aug 01
Mankind2024:
This is essentially a stock split masquerading as a bonus issue. Bonus issues do not impact the stock price. The exchange should use a less confusing term to avoid misleading investors. There is a distinct difference between a stock split and a bonus issue. The recent action by UCAP, changing 1unit at N31 to 3 units at N11, is technically not a bonus but rather a stock split.



Don't worry they are bringing the price back up.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 1:06pm On Aug 01
Mankind2024:
Oh, ye defenders of MTNN, you forgot to mention the truth - that MTNN is now being run on depositor loans taken from Nigerian banks despite the huge revenue figures. Where were you when MTNN siphoned $15 billion from the Nigerian economy? Nigeria did not collapse. Nothing will happen; no one is indispensable. MTNN remains a forex guzzler. I have never seen a company that loves our forex reserves like your beloved MTNN.
Long stories change nothing. I accept the truth that MTNN is undesirable yet unavoidable.


Not an MTN defender. But with all due respect, the 15billion you talk about was not stolen from government or nigerians. It was money made in the course of their legitimate business and they needed to repatriate same in order to pay dividends to their shareholders.

Companies doing business in other countries are usually allowed to freely repatriate profits. Not just Nigeria.

Bad governance and corruption in Nigeria has made it difficult for foreign companies to repatriate profits.
It is the same reason Nigeria had issues with UAE and some other countries, and also the same reason some other companies had to leave.
Thats why the current government is making serious efforts to ensure that enough $ is made available for foreign companies to repatriate profits.

No serious company will come to Nigeria to invest if they cannot return their profits.

Believe it or not, and with all due respect to nigerian telecoms companies, if MTN leaves Nigeria, there will be serious problem.

Go and read Airtel recent report, especially the explanatory notes, they specifically mentioned the negative impact their Nigerian arm had on their profit for the period.

8 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 1:08pm On Aug 01
yMcy56:
MTNN
Available @180
I cannot login to morgan to buy. Very unfortunate.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56: 1:09pm On Aug 01
Mpeace:
I cannot login to morgan to buy. Very unfortunate.
How? Why?
Morgan is working perfectly
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by cocolacec(m): 1:13pm On Aug 01
Mpeace:
I cannot login to morgan to buy. Very unfortunate.
Reload your browser.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 1:16pm On Aug 01
ojeysky:


I considered all o but ultimately Na my decision. grin
Fixed.👌👍🤜🤛
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mankind2024: 1:19pm On Aug 01
Is this a pull back or obeying the law of gravity?
yMcy56:
MTNN
Available @180

OANDO
Pulled back to 23......currently @23.55...
How low can it go from here again?
Let's wait and see....
Waiting for another good news to ginger the driver...
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 1:19pm On Aug 01
yMcy56:

How? Why?
Morgan is working perfectly
keeps booting and rebooting the next it shows that same user id is already logged in.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 1:20pm On Aug 01
cocolacec:

Reload your browser.
k let me try
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by SonofElElyonRet: 1:22pm On Aug 01
Bagwa:
Japaul 20B Loading, Coming days smiley

I beg fill me in

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 1:26pm On Aug 01
Mfunkynation:

Buying ucap @40 to sell higher was a wrong move by you!
You are qualified for the bonus and 0.90k dividend.
Don't sell at Loss ooooo...
In Nigeria, don't buy a stock and go and sleep... monitor it to save your capital...
if there's funds, average down in buying more at cheap price .
Ucap situation might happen to you in Oando oooo....
Stay one place jare

grin cheesy
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ojeysky(m): 1:27pm On Aug 01
Please does anyone have reference to C&I leasing report? Looks like some bidding is happening for it today
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by seyisanya(m): 1:33pm On Aug 01
Mpeace:
keeps booting and rebooting the next it shows that same user id is already logged in.
Simply clear your cache.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56: 1:36pm On Aug 01
Mankind2024:
Is this a pull back or obeying the law of gravity?
Haa, Oga mi, me I don't know o. 😀
What I know is that OANDO has prospects..

I hope we even still remember that some people picked this OANDO at very high prices, and not all have sold till date. It's going to be a kind of relieve to such seeing it inching up gradually, as it doesn't wipe off their capital like few others did.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56: 1:43pm On Aug 01

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 1:45pm On Aug 01
yMcy56:
MTNN
Available @180

OANDO
Pulled back to 23......currently @23.55...
How low can it go from here again?
Let's wait and see....
Waiting for another good news to ginger the driver...
What did you expect. The country is on unbalanced ground right now.And you guys expect the nse to be green or stocks to be going north

I stand with protester right now

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