ositadima1:


Equity: 187,297,700,000
Os: 40,647,990,293

For 2023.

Very good. That means free cash flow return on equity will be about 20%.


Not bad at all

https://nairametrics.com/2024/05/04/equity-reconstruction-transcorp-proposes-1-for-4-share-ratio-to-shareholders/

There hasn't been much news about it lately.

ositadima1:


I haven't heard of the price reduction or seen the details, and MCY56 has not reported on it yet. Could you explain why this is happening?

In my opinion, liquidation by split or placement typically results in a price drop. In this case, the opposite is likely to occur. The effect should cause an upward move instead, as fewer shares will now be available in the market. It doesn't seem to matter whether the reduction happens at 10, 12, or even 17; what should matter is the ratio of the reduction.

onegentleguy:


Am sure the fellow I responded to, and many others will understand the post.
...am sorry if you don't my dear.

Perhaps you need to "learn how to be in the spirit so you too can understand when people speak in tongues". ...pls do well to consult your pastor.
Don't wait to be spoonfed with the oratory from those who speak in tongues.

It is well

One of the key attributes of writing is communication skill. That one is lacking in all you write. If you wanted only the person you quoted to understand you, then you should do him an email.

You are trying but u can do better by communicating, because it's important to have it in mind that many members here are new to investing and these terminologies and ambiguous sentences are not helping them unless it's all about drawing them to your institution for a paid subscription if they care to understand. Anyways, it may be ur strategy, so who am I to blame you

Mankind2024:
Thank you for your thoughtful comment. I understand your concern about avoiding sensitive topics and focusing on the primary goal of this forum, which is financial growth. I appreciate your emphasis on maintaining a respectful and constructive discussion environment.
In my article, I aimed to share my personal experience with financial panpsychism and how it has influenced my financial journey. While I understand that religion can be a sensitive topic, my intention was not to provoke emotions or divert the focus from financial discussions.
I agree that personal beliefs should be respected and not imposed on others. I'll keep this in mind for future contributions and strive to maintain a balance between sharing my experiences and adhering to the forum's primary objectives.
Thank you for your understanding, and I look forward to continuing the financial discussions.
I would be delighted to learn about how Megawealth01 and Streetinvestor2 amassed their eight-figure net worth and fortunes on the NGX. 😆 😆 😆.

This why I love you bro... Your maturity in all discuss is topnotch...

As for WEALTH abeg ask my Oga Emma na him step I dey follow oooooo

I'm still his student

emmanuelewumi:



Very good. That means free cash flow return on equity will be about 20%.


Not bad at all

What will it be after reconstruction of 1:4 when OS = 10b and price= 40?

Raider76:


We now have your FA and TA from Oga BBM. What is missing is a consideration of market sentiments. That's what I tried to add to the TA. The sentiment around Transcorp in the short term is influenced by the proposed share reduction or consolidation of 1:4. The price is not going anywhere until that is done.

...Oga Raider, why you want hold the stock price? Dair is God o!

Raider76:


What will it be after reconstruction of 1:4 when OS = 10b and price= 40?

What is the difference between 12 and a dozen?

Mankind2024:
Thank you for your thoughtful comment. I understand your concern about avoiding sensitive topics and focusing on the primary goal of this forum, which is financial growth. I appreciate your emphasis on maintaining a respectful and constructive discussion environment.
In my article, I aimed to share my personal experience with financial panpsychism and how it has influenced my financial journey. While I understand that religion can be a sensitive topic, my intention was not to provoke emotions or divert the focus from financial discussions.
I agree that personal beliefs should be respected and not imposed on others. I'll keep this in mind for future contributions and strive to maintain a balance between sharing my experiences and adhering to the forum's primary objectives.
Thank you for your understanding, and I look forward to continuing the financial discussions.
I would be delighted to learn about how Megawealth01 and Streetinvestor2 amassed their eight-figure net worth and fortunes on the NGX. 😆 😆 😆.

Haba, 8 figure net worth on NGX keh. I guess you wanted to say how they amassed 8 figures dividend income from NGX

vacanci:


One of the key attributes of writing is communication skill. That one is lacking in all you write. If you wanted only the person you quoted to understand you, then you should do him an email.

You are trying but u can do better by communicating, because it's important to have it in mind that many members here are new to investing and these terminologies and ambiguous sentences are not helping them unless it's all about drawing them to your institution for a paid subscription if they care to understand. Anyways, it may be ur strategy, so who am I to blame you

He is trying so hard to sound knowledgeable and complicated to attract customers 😂

Yes, boss, an eight(-figure net worth - I'm destined for it. I know you, Oga Agba, Megawealth01, Streetinvestor2, and possibly Locotrader are already there; I'm following you all closely, bumper to bumper.
Eight figure networth is a chicken change in Naira.

emmanuelewumi:

Haba, 8 figure net worth on NGX keh. I guess you wanted to say how they amassed 8 figures dividend income from NGX

Agbalowomeri:


He is trying so hard to sound knowledgeable and complicated to attract customers 😂

Agbaya ni e.

Se nkan t'oye ko so niyen

NGX ASI AT A CRITICAL POINT: A MAKE-OR-BREAK MOMENT
The Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index (NGX ASI) is now at a critical point. The weekly structure continues to deteriorate, forming higher lows (HL) and lower lows (LL). A close below 96,961.25 in the coming week could make the Nigerian stock market increasingly vulnerable to decline across many stocks. Hence my previous post to be cautious in the market.

However, looking at last week's closing volume on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, it seems the momentum to drive the index further down is waning. If the volume continues to decrease as index declines, we may likely witness a false breakout.

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

onegentleguy:


Honestly, we are not lacking in that department.
...we already have quite a handful and still getting more because we do a nice job at managing people's capital and also helping others make money and grow their portfolio.

Spotting early opportunities and delivering value has been our middle name.
I give God all the glory though. ...for without him, I am absolutely nothing!

Stop hating dude! Life needs you to exhibit oneness so you can focus on growth.
...it's also good for your mental health.

Do take care

emmanuelewumi:


Agbaya ni e.
Se nkan t'oye ko so niyen

Don't mind that halfwit! ...he has NEVER been smart, so you shouldn't be surprised.

If not for simplicity and humility, I would've said we go on a bet (he & I), putting down at least a 7-figure amount to know who's well grounded in both FA and TA.
...let's see if he'd even come close to anywhere near 30%.

If only he knows the No of persons we guide, even... (he should read the above post again)

Envy and inferiority complex will destroy that dude one day.
I did say I suspect he has a FITMD. ...it's confirmed now!

Honestly, Agba is NOT worth the time. ...not even a tiny little bit!
It is well

BullBearMkt:
NGX ASI AT A CRITICAL POINT: A MAKE-OR-BREAK MOMENT
The Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index (NGX ASI) is now at a critical point. The weekly structure continues to deteriorate, forming higher lows (HL) and lower lows (LL). A close below 96,961.25 in the coming week could make the Nigerian stock market increasingly vulnerable to decline across many stocks. Hence my previous post to be cautious in the market.

However, looking at last week's closing volume on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, it seems the momentum to drive the index further down is waning. If the volume continues to decrease as index declines, we may likely witness a false breakout.

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

Once again, you have spoken well.
...correct!

It is well

BullBearMkt:
NGX ASI AT A CRITICAL POINT: A MAKE-OR-BREAK MOMENT
The Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index (NGX ASI) is now at a critical point. The weekly structure continues to deteriorate, forming higher lows (HL) and lower lows (LL). A close below 96,961.25 in the coming week could make the Nigerian stock market increasingly vulnerable to decline across many stocks. Hence my previous post to be cautious in the market.

However, looking at last week's closing volume on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, it seems the momentum to drive the index further down is waning. If the volume continues to decrease as index declines, we may likely witness a false breakout.

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

You are well appreciated.
Thanks for making it simple.

Laso09:


You are well appreciated.
Thanks for making it simple.

How I wish I had gone to Cambridge, Oxford, Harvard, or Massachusetts, I for dey speak big, big grammar like Oga OGG; but thank God for the evening school my papa and mama could afford

BullBearMkt:

...Oga Raider, why you want hold the stock price? Dair is God o!

Unfortunately people don't like share reconstruction.

emmanuelewumi:



What is the difference between 12 and a dozen?

See..

👍
https://nairametrics.com/2024/08/17/nigerias-ngx-index-drops-1-51-as-investors-react-to-results-and-inflation-data/

BullBearMkt:
NGX ASI AT A CRITICAL POINT: A MAKE-OR-BREAK MOMENT
The Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index (NGX ASI) is now at a critical point. The weekly structure continues to deteriorate, forming higher lows (HL) and lower lows (LL). A close below 96,961.25 in the coming week could make the Nigerian stock market increasingly vulnerable to decline across many stocks. Hence my previous post to be cautious in the market.

However, looking at last week's closing volume on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, it seems the momentum to drive the index further down is waning. If the volume continues to decrease as index declines, we may likely witness a false breakout.

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

Agbalowomeri:


He is trying so hard to sound knowledgeable and complicated to attract customers 😂

Badz Boy...

Mankind2024:
👍
https://nairametrics.com/2024/08/17/nigerias-ngx-index-drops-1-51-as-investors-react-to-results-and-inflation-data/

...Interesting news. There is announcement of a decrease in inflation, instead of the market to react positively, newspaper reported investors' displeasure. The rich will always take advantage of the poor

On TRANSCORP...

I think it's best to wait until after the 1 for 4 reverse stock split exercise.

As I told some of my prime and outline subscribers then; exiting at the N18--19 high was both a capitalist and smart trading and Investment decision.
Locking in profit and/or one's investment capital was an absolute necessity.
...especially after the huge returns they booked riding from strategic entries of N1+ and N3+ respectively.
Fundamentals called for it... TA agreed at the time.

Price may hover around the +17--30% appreciation from CMP, but I believe another great entry opportunity will suffice post share consolidation.

It is well

BullBearMkt:

How I wish I had gone to Cambridge, Oxford, Harvard, or Massachusetts, I for dey speak big, big grammar like Oga OGG; but thank God for the evening school my papa and mama could afford

onegentleguy:
On TRANSCORP...

I think it's best to wait until after the 1 for 4 reverse stock split exercise.

As I told some of my prime and outline subscribers then; exiting at the N18--19 high was both a capitalist and smart trading and Investment decision.
Locking in profit and/or one's investment capital was an absolute necessity.
...especially after the huge returns they booked riding from strategic entries of N1+ and N3+ respectively.
Fundamentals called for it... TA agreed at the time.

Price may hover around the +17--30% appreciation from CMP, but I believe another great entry opportunity will suffice post share consolidation.

It is well

I disagree with both you and @Raider76. The major determinant of the stock's price movement will be the investors' perspective on the company's financial performance and the overall economic outlook (NGX-ASI).

crownprince2017:
Good morning pa Emma, I hope u have not forgotten my request on fidson.

Thanks.

Let me try my hand at analyzing Fidson. Fidson is a tough one, and there may be hidden notes in the 2023 financial report, but I haven't checked thoroughly.

Fidson's cash flow from operations is about 1.54 billion naira, as reported in the financials, which it almost entirely paid out as dividends of 60 kobo per share. However, capital expenditure was several times the cash flow, at about 4.53 billion naira, which I guess was funded by a 6.7 billion naira increase in borrowings for the year.

Most of this capex comes from capital work in progress (WIP), about 3.3 billion naira. A similar magnitude was also invested in the previous year, 2022. I don't know what they're planning, but maybe they acquired some of GlaxoSmithKline's assets. Since it's WIP, it's not yet operational and has yet to generate revenue.

As I mentioned before, debt increased significantly, but the debt-to-equity ratio was still acceptable at 0.96. I anticipate Fidson generating much more revenue and, consequently, profits when the WIP investments become operational.

I hope a FCFE per share of 1.2 naira will not be too far off. Running the MC simulation with 1.2 would put Fidson's value between 16 and 31 naira. Fidson appears to be undervalued.

Note: The key to Fidson's future performance will likely be how well they can translate their capital investments (the huge capital WIP) into revenue and profit growth.

But Japaul closed at 2.20. Explain how come a buy @ 2.10. Do I wait for it to retest 2.10 before I buy or I buy at current price. Appreciate your response

BullBearMkt:
MISSED BUYING JAPAULGOLD FIRST RALLY? HERE COMES ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
Japaulgold got rejected at support level, 2. A BUY from 2.10.

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

BullBearMkt:

I disagree with both you and @Raider76. The major determinant of the stock's price movement will be the investors' perspective on the company's financial performance and the overall economic outlook (NGX-ASI).

You're right about what could possibly impact the coys equity price performance, but you seem to be missing something; the fact that the prospect of that part in bold can also be affected by the implementation of the proposed reverse stock split exercise.
When you incorporate this part, you have a not-so-strong forward looking sentiment that may have watered down the belief system of investors in the company.

As I highlighted in the post you quoted, a trader can make some return, but an investor needs to thread with caution.

As I always tell folks; except for where the intention is to attract a PE/Core investor, a reverse stock split exercise in the stock market world is 88% of the time an act crafted to take away more from an investor by presenting them with a make believe impression that they can get more value from an asset play should a presumed QUALITY be made to replace QUANTITY.

Again it's also pivotal for an investor to consider the factor of X ratio and how it's weighting can mirror the earnings capacity of the company.
A smart investor may want to weigh in on the coys earnings stance to see if it'll be a TRUE REFLECTION of the coys valuation or if it's overblown.
This can only be better scrutinized after the share consolidation exercise.
Think I highlighted some of these stuffs in one of my past articles.

Bottom line:
A trader may decide to play it but then again with caution. (I don't see much room for upside in the very near term)
An investor would be better off waiting.

No doubt, TRANSCORP holds great prospect, but we will enter and ride it at the appropriate time.

Selah

ositadima1:


Let me try my hand at analyzing Fidson. Fidson is a tough one, and there may be hidden notes in the 2023 financial report, but I haven't checked thoroughly.

Fidson's cash flow from operations is about 1.54 billion naira, as reported in the financials, which it almost entirely paid out as dividends of 60 kobo per share. However, capital expenditure was several times the cash flow, at about 4.53 billion naira, which I guess was funded by a 6.7 billion naira increase in borrowings for the year.

Most of this capex comes from capital work in progress (WIP), about 3.3 billion naira. A similar magnitude was also invested in the previous year, 2022. I don't know what they're planning, but maybe they acquired some of GlaxoSmithKline's assets. Since it's WIP, it's not yet operational and has yet to generate revenue.

As I mentioned before, debt increased significantly, but the debt-to-equity ratio was still acceptable at 0.96. I anticipate Fidson generating much more revenue and, consequently, profits when the WIP investments become operational.

I hope a FCFE per share of 1.2 naira will not be too far off. Running the MC simulation with 1.2 would put Fidson's value between 16 and 31 naira. Fidson appears to be undervalued.

Note: The key to Fidson's future performance will likely be how well they can translate their capital investments (the huge capital WIP) into revenue and profit growth.

With net operating cash flow of about N1.5 billion and capex of over N4.4 billion.

Free cash flow can't be positive

For earning quality you compare the profit after tax with the net operating cash flow.

Ideally the net operating cash flow should be higher than the profit after tax

In a situation whereby the PAT is higher than the net operating cash flow, it is prudent to use the cash flow operations for your research and valuation.


PAT is over N3 billion but operating cash flow is about N1.5 billion

emmanuelewumi:



With net operating cash flow of about N1.5 billion and capex of over N4 billion.

Free cash flow can't be positive

FCFE = Cash Flow from Operations - Capital Expenditures + Net Borrowing

If money flows in from net borrowing, then FCFE can be positive.

The reason for this is that borrowed money is considered part of free cash flow to be used for whatever purpose the company chooses. This approach reflects the idea that debt financing increases the cash available to equity holders in the short term, even though it creates a future obligation for repayment.
Copied..

ositadima1:


FCFE = Cash Flow from Operations - Capital Expenditures + Net Borrowing

If money flows in from net borrowing, then FCFE can be positive.

The reason for this is that borrowed money is considered part of free cash flow to be used for whatever purpose the company chooses. This approach reflects the idea that debt financing increases the cash available to equity holders in the short term, even though it creates a future obligation for repayment.
Copied..

What is the free cash flow (firm)?

emmanuelewumi:
For earning quality you compare the profit after tax with the net operating cash flow.

Ideally the net operating cash flow should be higher than the profit after tax

In a situation whereby the PAT is higher than the net operating cash flow, it is prudent to use the cash flow operations for your research and valuation.


PAT is over N3 billion but operating cash flow is about N1.5 billion

The lower cash flow from operating activities is probably due to receivables tying up cash. However, the 1.2 figure was not a calculated value, as the calculated FCFE was primarily derived from borrowing. Instead, I made a rough assumption: I multiplied the cash from operations by 2 and used that as my FCFE estimate. I did this because the over 6 billion investment in Work in Progress (WIP) will likely generate revenue in the future. I believe I made this clear when I expressed it as a hope rather than a certainty.