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Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts - Investment (8065) - Nairaland

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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 9:06pm On Aug 27
yMcy56:

Lol.
I've been following VFD since it was listed and it's on my watchlist.
Those guys Sabi how to play the game, just strategizing first....
The Anchoria Capital Group will be their Asset Management Arm to be interfacing with the Capital Market.
We'll see how it goes....

I just don't want to give people any assurance but anyone that doesn't have VFD in their portfolio or watchlist eh... It's one coy I was buying regularly in their days in the OTC

They controlled the OTC/NASD market before moving to NSE... They will control this NSE soon

DYOR
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 9:13pm On Aug 27
GeeKudi:


Unless you are privy to some info not backed by publicly available data.

I want you to star my message you quoted for future references...

VFD that will rule the market
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Zagee: 9:18pm On Aug 27
NNPCL is now clearly just an SPV for the BAT presidency.
Oando is now what NNPCL could be for the time being.
NNPCL would be less competitive as all that is now for Oando to drive.
Oando is now NNPCL

Remember the Saudi's investment hint in the oil sector earlier?

The only thing left for Oando now is to float private investment(fresh funding/recapitalization). I'm critically looking at 2MMbpd production output for that decision to look more likely.

Just my sentimental oil sector analysis ✌
(It is what it is grin)
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 9:21pm On Aug 27
2024 Q1: VFD Group reports N3 billion in pre-tax profits

https://nairametrics.com/2024/05/27/2024-q1-vfd-group-reports-n3-billion-in-pre-tax-profits/#:~:text=VFD%20Group%20Plc%2C%20a%20leading,the%20same%20period%20in%202023.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mankind2024: 10:09pm On Aug 27
I've noticed a pattern of OANDO hoarding, the current hottest stocks in NGX. At the peak of trading hours, it's impossible to get an offer despite numerous bids. However, with fintech apps, offers are abundant. OANDO has suddenly turned many brokers into digital Naira printing companies. Ironically, these same brokers often have social commentators who condemn fuel hoarding by 🚉 fueling stations during scarcity.

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 10:36pm On Aug 27
On this day was when my research into C&I started...

I'll soon take position but won't announce it when I start...

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 10:46pm On Aug 27
Don't you think this is becoming a cliché... 🤔

megawealth01:
On this day was when my research into C&I started...

I'll soon take position but won't announce it when I start...

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 10:46pm On Aug 27
They're called Market Manipulators for a reason... wink
Mankind2024:
I've noticed a pattern of OANDO hoarding, the current hottest stocks in NGX. At the peak of trading hours, it's impossible to get an offer despite numerous bids. However, with fintech apps, offers are abundant. OANDO has suddenly turned many brokers into digital Naira printing companies. Ironically, these same brokers often have social commentators who condemn fuel hoarding by 🚉 fueling stations during scarcity.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by designking: 10:48pm On Aug 27
Mankind2024:
I've noticed a pattern of OANDO hoarding, the current hottest stocks in NGX. At the peak of trading hours, it's impossible to get an offer despite numerous bids. However, with fintech apps, offers are abundant. OANDO has suddenly turned many brokers into digital Naira printing companies. Ironically, these same brokers often have social commentators who condemn fuel hoarding by 🚉 fueling stations during scarcity.

But Bamboo too a fintech app is rejecting orders to buy Oando. Getting in is almost impossible because as the market opens, it reaches full bid (10% growth).
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 11:01pm On Aug 27
megawealth01:
2024 Q1: VFD Group reports N3 billion in pre-tax profits

https://nairametrics.com/2024/05/27/2024-q1-vfd-group-reports-n3-billion-in-pre-tax-profits/#:~:text=VFD%20Group%20Plc%2C%20a%20leading,the%20same%20period%20in%202023.

Just in case someone sees Q1 EPS of N10 for a stock selling for N40 and was wondering:

Since that result was released. There has been a significant change that anyone looking to buy should consider.

There was a stock split (x5). So the N10 EPS in Q1 is more like N2.

As at Q2, EPS was N2.45k.

Disclaimer - Not a buy or sell recommendation.

5 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 11:03pm On Aug 27
We are watching. They wan start again. The fear of us is the beginning of wisdom. I can't stand when person dey talk from two side of the same mouth.

We go continue this story tomorrow..Something is good but hidden agenda don dey come inside the matter. C and I leasing tomorrow na your matter go dey ground

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 11:08pm On Aug 27
Omooloriredade:


Just in case someone sees Q1 EPS of N10 for a stock selling for N40 and was wondering:

Since that result was released. There has been a significant change that anyone looking to buy should consider.

There was a stock split (x5). So the N10 EPS in Q1 is more like N2.

As at Q2, EPS was N2.45k.

Disclaimer - Not a buy or sell recommendation.
You are a good man.This is why I have problem with people. Try and be straight in you dealings

3 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mankind2024: 12:13am On Aug 28
My View on the Illusion of Stock Overvaluation and Why Investors Should Rethink Stock Valuation
When Totalenergies Marketing Nigeria plc was trading at sub-N400 a year ago, it appeared overvalued in the sights of many investors. Low liquidity and low volume were also cited by some forum members, with daily prices mostly static. Then, speculations by retail investors emerged that there was a hidden gem in the company. The story changed, and the price is now heading towards the N1,000 mark. This motivated me to research why the concept of stock valuation using PER, FA, Comparable company analysis, Asset baded valuation, Gordon growth model,EV to EBITDA ratio, P/S ratio, DCF, and DDM may no longer be ABSOLUTELY relevant in modern settings. No wonder the legendary investor Warren Buffett described the modern stock market as a casino due to massive participation by retail investors.
In light of this, I came up with the following supporting opinions to buttress the assertion that the concept of stock overvaluation lies in the eyes of an individual, not the dictate of the market.

In the era of digital mobile technologies and social media, the investing landscape has undergone a significant transformation. The emergence of retail investors has revolutionized the way stock prices are determined, rendering traditional notions of overvaluation obsolete. It's time for investors to abandon the concept of overvaluation and embrace a new reality: a stock's value is ultimately determined by what individual investors are willing to pay.

Subjective Valuation
Stock valuation has always been subjective, with different investors holding varying opinions on a stock's worth. What one investor considers overvalued, another might see as undervalued. This disparity highlights the futility of relying solely on traditional valuation metrics.

The Rise of Retail Investors_
The influx of retail investors has demonstrated that collective individual opinions can drive stock prices, making traditional notions of overvaluation less relevant. As more investors participate in the market, their collective sentiment and speculation shape stock prices.

Speculation and Sentiment
Speculation and market sentiment, fueled by digital technologies and social media, significantly impact stock prices. This makes it challenging to determine intrinsic value, as prices are influenced by various market dynamics, such as momentum, trends, and herd behavior.

A New Era of Investing
The digital age has ushered in a new era of investing, where information dissemination and accessibility have empowered individual investors. Traditional valuation metrics are no longer dominant, as investors rely on diverse sources of information to inform their decisions.

Price Discovery
The true value of a stock is ultimately determined by what investors are willing to pay, making price discovery a dynamic and constantly evolving process. This reality underscores the importance of understanding market sentiment and speculation.

Efficient Market Hypothesis
The efficient market hypothesis suggests that prices reflect all available information, making it challenging to consistently achieve returns in excess of the market's average. This theory supports the idea that stock prices are influenced by individual opinions and speculations.

Behavioral Finance
Behavioral finance highlights how psychological biases and emotions influence investment decisions. This further supports the notion that stock prices are influenced by individual opinions and speculations rather than solely by fundamental valuations

Finally, the concept of overvaluation is no longer relevant in today's investing landscape. Investors must adapt to a new reality, where stock prices are determined by individual opinions, speculation, and market sentiment. By embracing this shift, investors can better navigate the complexities of the modern market and make more informed investment decisions.

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 12:55am On Aug 28
Omooloriredade:


Just in case someone sees Q1 EPS of N10 for a stock selling for N40 and was wondering:

Since that result was released. There has been a significant change that anyone looking to buy should consider.

There was a stock split (x5). So the N10 EPS in Q1 is more like N2.

As at Q2, EPS was N2.45k.

Disclaimer - Not a buy or sell recommendation.

💯
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 12:58am On Aug 28
grin
KarlTom:
They're called Market Manipulators for a reason... wink
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yak(m): 1:17am On Aug 28
yMcy56:

SFSREIT too moved @+10%
Now @134.90 ...up with 12+

I went to buy the wrong REIT, UPCREIT.
Dumped it at a time. Thank goodness I have recovered the losses from RTB
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mosh2035(m): 1:55am On Aug 28
What stock/ company will make the Oando move next?
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by designking: 4:55am On Aug 28
mosh2035:
What stock/ company will make the Oando move next?

Eterna Oil is the next likely stock to make this type of Oando move.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Deadlytruth(m): 5:12am On Aug 28
ProphetUtuocha:
grin angry angry
You got this prophesy very right. You are a true investment prophet. Now give us prophesy on the next stock that will repeat the OANDO story.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Locotrader(m): 5:14am On Aug 28
C &I leasing is gone for good✓100%

Abbey Mortgage Is another stock in view.

Yesterday Abbey did10%.Today likely 10% .It's movement will not draw heavy attention but like play like play,it will cross #5.

When we pointed RT Briscoe some weeks ago,some people were talking bla bla bla and we booked heavy profit on top bla bla bla.Today all eyes has seen.

Mercy said VFD has sold their controlling stake in Abbey Mortgage.I will like her to provide the evidence like mine below.

VFD made it public they are selling only 30% out of 3'835,181,810 shares in Abbey but yet to do so.It was around May 2024,they published the report.

The only insider sales that took place was in May and July and the insiders were Abbey staff scheme and Madonna Ashib.

Note: This is not the reason why Abbey price will go up or not.There is need for the price to go up when you take a look at their latest financials and good corporate governance.

I want to see where VFD sold any of their shares in Abbey Mortgage Bank.

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by edwardaigb: 5:16am On Aug 28
Good Morning brothers and sisters in the Lord.

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Locotrader(m): 5:29am On Aug 28
For those of us here looking for what to buy today,C&I leasing is not for everyone today and possibly this week sha.

This Abbey Mortgage is never for everyone.It is highly illiquid but a good stock to hold.You need a good lecture on how to acquire illiquid stocks.

Start buying CHAMS from this morning.Dont miss it.I repeat,DONT MISS IT.

Stop envying those in Oando.They deserve the reward.Not everyone can gamble oando.Let them eat the fruit of their labour.It is a #200 and above stock.Unless Tinubu is not our president again.

May you be blessed today.

Back to my cave for observations.

13 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:18am On Aug 28
Locotrader:
For those of us here looking for what to buy today,C&I leasing is not for everyone today and possibly this week sha.

This Abbey Mortgage is never for everyone.It is highly illiquid but a good stock to hold.You need a good lecture on how to acquire illiquid stocks.

Start buying CHAMS from this morning.Dont miss it.I repeat,DONT MISS IT.

Stop envying those in Oando.They deserve the reward.Not everyone can gamble oando.Let them eat the fruit of their labour.It is a #200 and above stock.Unless Tinubu is not our president again.

May you be blessed today.

Back to my cave for observations.

You no add Royalex?
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56: 7:59am On Aug 28
@Loco
On VFD, if you read the docs well, it says 30% holdings in Abbey Mortgage to be sold to Strategic Investor as part of the Capital raise of N30bn...

You may be right on the previous heavy deals to have been executed by Maddona Ashib and staff scheme but, VFD sales will be in form of Off Market Deals....which could even be that VFD group is still very much owing the shares indirectly......but bringing in a strategic investor in form of proxy or something.
* It may also mean selling part of the holding.....but not on the floor.

Abbey Mortgage is a good associate of VFDGROUP and part of the revenue generating arm of the group.

Not contesting anything here......but the point there is that VFDGROUP already approved selling of 30% of shareholding in Abbey as part of the plan to generate more working Capital.

4 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Deadlytruth(m): 9:03am On Aug 28
Locotrader:
For those of us here looking for what to buy today,C&I leasing is not for everyone today and possibly this week sha.

This Abbey Mortgage is never for everyone.It is highly illiquid but a good stock to hold.You need a good lecture on how to acquire illiquid stocks.

Start buying CHAMS from this morning.Dont miss it.I repeat,DONT MISS IT.

Stop envying those in Oando.They deserve the reward.Not everyone can gamble oando.Let them eat the fruit of their labour.It is a #200 and above stock.Unless Tinubu is not our president again.

May you be blessed today.

Back to my cave for observations.

In one of my posts in reaction to the lamentations of a member here about being allegedly deceived by Monkey Hunters into buying OANDO at N14+ only for it to start dropping the next day to as low as N8 some days later, I told him/her that, by the laws of SA, it is very difficult for a stock linked or perceived to be linked to an incumbent president to fail those invested in it regardless of fundamentals as long as that president's tenure has not ended. I used TRANSCORP/OBASANJO as precedent and told him that OANDO/TINUBU will likely follow same route. I hope that member here didn't sell of the OANDO back then out of frustration else he/she would by now have missed an opportunity of close to 750% capital appreciation if the N117 fair value analysis is anything to go by. During the days of Prophet Utuocha's Clarion call about OANDO, I strongly believed that his level of confidence in his prophesy was tied to the real or perceived incumbent president's interest in it hence I never joined those who doubted him on the ground of not backing up his call with any evidence.

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by vacanci: 9:06am On Aug 28
Omooloriredade:


Just in case someone sees Q1 EPS of N10 for a stock selling for N40 and was wondering:

Since that result was released. There has been a significant change that anyone looking to buy should consider.

There was a stock split (x5). So the N10 EPS in Q1 is more like N2.

As at Q2, EPS was N2.45k.

Disclaimer - Not a buy or sell recommendation.

A better performance than UCAP if i must say.

VFD EPS was not annualized. Profit after tax was around 3B naira with outstanding shares of around 1.25B after the split and rights issue. if you annualize their EPS of 2.45, you get 4.9

UCAPprofit after tax was around 7.7B. if we consider the current outstanding share of 18B units after the bonus, EPS will be around 0.43 and if you annualize it, it will be around N0.86

So with the above, the P/E ratio for VFD will be 9.18 (45/4.9) while P/E ratio of UCAP is 21.5 (18.5/0.86)

which one is cheaper?

abeg let those who sabi calculate correct any mistake i make. I may be wrong and it's opened for debate.

Before UCAP will earn N1 per share, it has to make a profit after tax of at least N18 Billion going forward. The dilution is not bad per say, but the price of the stock now is the issue. And to enjoy at least 10% dividend from 18 B naira net income, the share price has to be N10 maximum

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:30am On Aug 28
Omooloriredade:


Just in case someone sees Q1 EPS of N10 for a stock selling for N40 and was wondering:

Since that result was released. There has been a significant change that anyone looking to buy should consider.

There was a stock split (x5). So the N10 EPS in Q1 is more like N2.

As at Q2, EPS was N2.45k.

Disclaimer - Not a buy or sell recommendation.


Well observed.

EPS needs to double to make common sense at the current price.

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Raider76: 9:38am On Aug 28
vacanci:


A better performance than UCAP if i must say.

VFD EPS was not annualized. Profit after tax was around 3B naira with outstanding shares of around 1.25B after the split and rights issue. if you annualize their EPS of 2.45, you get 4.9

UCAPprofit after tax was around 7.7B. if we consider the current outstanding share of 18B units after the bonus, EPS will be around 0.43 and if you annualize it, it will be around N0.86

So with the above, the P/E ratio for VFD will be 9.18 (45/4.9) while P/E ratio of UCAP is 21.5 (18.5/0.86)

which one is cheaper?

abeg let those who sabi calculate correct any mistake i make. I may be wrong and it's opened for debate.

Before UCAP will earn N1 per share, it has to make a profit after tax of at least N18 Billion going forward. The dilution is not bad per say, but the price of the stock now is the issue. And to enjoy at least 10% dividend from 18 B naira net income, the share price has to be N10 maximum

Of what effect will their new mfb fintech UCEE be?
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Locotrader(m): 9:41am On Aug 28
Deadlytruth:


In one of my posts in reaction to the lamentations of a member here about being allegedly deceived by Monkey Hunters into buying OANDO at N14+ only for it to start dropping the next day to as low as N8 some days later, I told him/her that, by the laws of SA, it is very difficult for a stock linked or perceived to be linked to an incumbent president to fail those invested in it regardless of fundamentals as long as that president's tenure has not ended. I used TRANSCORP/OBASANJO as precedent and told him that OANDO/TINUBU will likely follow same route. I hope that member here didn't sell of the OANDO back then out of frustration else he/she would by now have missed an opportunity of close to 750% capital appreciation if the N117 fair value analysis is anything to go by. During the days of Prophet Utuocha's Clarion call about OANDO, I strongly believed that his level of confidence in his prophesy was tied to the real or perceived incumbent president's interest in it hence I never joined those who doubted him on the ground of not backing up his call with any evidence.

Succinct
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Locotrader(m): 9:43am On Aug 28
aj8:



Well observed.

EPS needs to double to make common sense at the current price.


If there is any stock wey don cast,na UCAP.
This investment has become a long term.
18B shares no be moi moi if #1 dividend has to continue.
Profit after will cast
EPS will cast
Share price will also cast
Dividend will cast join.

I need education in UCAP.On a serious note

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:48am On Aug 28
Locotrader:


If there is any stock wey don cast,na UCAP.
This investment has become a long term.
18B shares no be moi moi if #1 dividend has to continue.
Profit after will cast
EPS will cast
Share price will also cast
Dividend will cast join.

I need education in UCAP.On a serious note

Na u go cast am, LOL

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:50am On Aug 28
@yak follow up on my last suggestion…
Eterna's support based on my analysis of her volume-price dissociation is approximately 21.00. Will definitely do well based on last quarter's print. I will be picking up more should it dip to this price. If not confident sell off about half your holding when it strikes your 28. There may be a slight resistance there before it resumes the climb.

1 Like

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