Raider76:


But it really doesn't make sense in today's digitized business environment to lock up people's money for so long. They are behaving like the days when they had to write and mail physical share certificates for the bonus. If you can declare dividends and credit people's accounts in a month why not shares into CSCS accounts? In the case of UCAP they have already used the N6b they got from the retained earnings through the bonus issue to set up their UCEE.Mfb, leaving the shareholders hanging. It is unfair.

Can shed more light on the 6bln you mentioned in your last sentence for Ucap.

ositadima1:


Based on the link posted by Mcy56 (she leaked the forward documents not me incase you are prosecutor ), does this make sense? Am I missing something?

Good attempt but unfortunately GROSSLY inaccurate.

* Peak Oil production was not 100,000bbls/day. Should have been reported as 100,000BOE/day. Also, Peak production can't be used for forecasting.
* Based on point above re BOE, you can't multiply this figure by $76 (the price of oil).
* Gas production figure is wrong. Don't know where that came from. Oando produced c. 31,912,680 MMBtu of gas in 2023.
* Average realised price of gas in 2023 was about $2 per MMBtu. Note - Futures contracts are usually used hedge commodity price risk.
* Your annual revenue was therefore grossly overstated which throws off the rest of your calculations.

However, I commend you for this intellectual exercise.

Things to note:

Gas:
1000Scf = 1Mcf
1000Mcf = 1MMcf
1000MMcf = 1Bcf
1000Bcf = 1Tcf

BOE (Barrel of OIL Equivalent)
1BOE = 6000Scf or 6Mcf or 5.8MMBtu (approx 6MMBtu)

Oil
1BOE = 1bbl (basically oil quantity needs no conversion. Unlike gas and NGLs, what you get is what it is)

So when an Upstream company reports production numbers, they usually refer to BOE to capture Oil, Natural Gas and Natural Gas liquids. Also, you would often see Oil companies qualify an oil well or OML by the proportion of Oil it produces e.g OML ABC producing 70% Oil (that is the % of oil in the BOE).

Streetinvestor2:
On a serious note @ osita.That profit you posted from that revenue can not be right. Which kind baboon dey work monkey dey chop financial statement.And the 15 is not even right for cost.For naija it 45 and above.

Production costs per BOE based on AUDITED 2023 annual reports:

Seplat - $10.4/BOE
Aradel - $21.0/bbls (Reported in bbls so refinery costs included. About 33% of crude produced feeds their refinery)
Oando - TBC

This is the fact of actual production cost. However, there are other taxes and royalties that apply in Oil & Gas production which is technically not included in determining cost of production. It is an industry standard the world over. It is technically incorrect to sum up all taxes, royalties to determine the cost of production.

As for Nigeria's interest in JV especially share of production, the country has the RIGHT for up to 60% as per the PIA.

https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2021/12/nigeria-overhauls-its-oil-and-gas-laws-with-petroleum-industry-act

Spot on 👍🏾

Omooloriredade:


Production costs per BOE based on AUDITED 2023 annual reports:

Seplat - $10.4/BOE
Aradel - $21.0/bbls (Reported in bbls so refinery costs included. About 33% of crude produced feeds their refinery)
Oando - TBC

This is the fact of actual production cost. However, there are other taxes and royalties that apply in Oil & Gas production which is technically not included in determining cost of production. It is an industry standard the world over. It is technically incorrect to sum up all taxes, royalties to determine the cost of production.

As for Nigeria's interest in JV, the country has the RIGHT for up to 60% as per the PIA.

https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2021/12/nigeria-overhauls-its-oil-and-gas-laws-with-petroleum-industry-act

Streetinvestor2:
I don't think naija takes the lion share in the crude business based on agreement with foreign ioc i know.Thr percentage for ioc is usually higher than naija own because is them that brings the fund and equipment for the whole process. I think naira takes like 40% or even less.And I don't think Oando will be doing more than 50000 for now too

Because those IOC’s operate the JV’s does not necessarily translate to them “bringing the fund and equipment for the whole process”, that is why there is something called ‘cash call’ obligation.

Cash calls in oil and gas ventures refer to the request for funds by the operator from joint venture partners to cover anticipated costs for project operations such as exploration, drilling, and production.

In a JV, partners benefit from production in the ratio/proportion of their stake, and as someone already stated Nigeria’s interest in oil & gas JV’s averages about 60% (varies from JV to JV). So Oando with a 40% stake will not offtake more oil than the government represented by NNPCL with a higher 60% stake in the business. There is also IOC’s using their share of oil to settle royalty obligations & other concession rentals (royalty oil).

If you want to talk about government using it’s share of oil to settle cash call debts and other obligations in the JV, that is a different matter altogether.

Omooloriredade:


Good attempt but unfortunately GROSSLY inaccurate.

* Peak Oil production was not 100,000bbls/day. Should have been reported as 100,000BOE/day. Also, Peak production can't be used for forecasting.
* Based on point above re BOE, you can't multiply this figure by $76 (the price of oil).
* Gas production figure is wrong. Don't know where that came from. Oando produced c. 31,912,680 MMBtu of gas in 2023.
* Average realised price of gas in 2023 was about $2 per MMBtu. Note - Futures contracts are usually used hedge commodity price risk.
* Your annual revenue was therefore grossly overstated which throws off the rest of your calculations.

However, I commend you for this intellectual exercise.

Things to note:

Gas:
1000Scf = 1Mcf
1000Mcf = 1MMcf
1000MMcf = 1Bcf
1000Bcf = 1Tcf

BOE (Barrel of OIL Equivalent)
1BOE = 6000Scf or 6Mcf or 5.8MMBtu (approx 6MMBtu)

Oil
1BOE = 1bbl (basically oil quantity needs no conversion. Unlike gas and NGLs, what you get is what it is)

So when an Upstream company reports production numbers, they usually refer to BOE to capture Oil, Natural Gas and Natural Gas liquids. Also, you would often see Oil companies qualify an oil well or OML by the proportion of Oil it produces e.g OML ABC producing 70% Oil (that is the % of oil in the BOE).

Brilliant breakdown!
Forecasting using peak production is like calculating your travel time between Abuja and Lagos using your car’s top speed of 240km/hr. Who does that? What ever happened to downtimes like slow traffic, bad roads, police check points, etc?

Omooloriredade:


Production costs per BOE based on AUDITED 2023 annual reports:

Seplat - $10.4/BOE
Aradel - $21.0/bbls (Reported in bbls so refinery costs included. About 33% of crude produced feeds their refinery)
Oando - TBC

This is the fact of actual production cost. However, there are other taxes and royalties that apply in Oil & Gas production which is technically not included in determining cost of production. It is an industry standard the world over. It is technically incorrect to sum up all taxes, royalties to determine the cost of production.

As for Nigeria's interest in JV especially share of production, the country has the RIGHT for up to 60% as per the PIA.

https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2021/12/nigeria-overhauls-its-oil-and-gas-laws-with-petroleum-industry-act

Do you reckon the PIA’s prescription of Nigeria’s rights of up to 60% interest in a JV was violated by Mobil Nigeria’s concession of relinquishing additional 10% to the NNPCL’s 60% stake in the onshore/shallow water assets JV in the out of court settlement to facilitate their divestment to Seplat?

Because as it stands today Nigeria’s stake in that JV is 70%, contrary to the PIA’s spirit and letter, and contrary to common sense as well, as there is almost a consensus that NNPC needs to cutdown (not increase) its JV interests.

mikeapollo:


SEPLAT is moving oooo!
None of the upstream oil and gas companies should be ignored. The govt will push them because it needs money. Aradel, Oando and Seplat should be watched closely

No one, certainly not myself said Seplat will not move as the divestment approval inches closer, just not the manner the Oando bull raged daily.

From my previous posts you can tell that i am very well positioned (almost certain more than you are) to benefit from any such raging bull. Just let’s not get our hopes too high and expect something close to the Oando rage!

I have mentioned long before now that Seplat is a peaceful stock for me, without the crazy & frenzied volatility of Oando which i exited earlier in the year to top up the Seplat. Four dollar denominated dividends already paid so far this year plus astonishing year-to-date growth with peace of mind, what else could anyone ask for?

Omooloriredade:


Good attempt but unfortunately GROSSLY inaccurate.

* Peak Oil production was not 100,000bbls/day. Should have been reported as 100,000BOE/day. Also, Peak production can't be used for forecasting.
* Based on point above re BOE, you can't multiply this figure by $76 (the price of oil).
* Gas production figure is wrong. Don't know where that came from. Oando produced c. 31,912,680 MMBtu of gas in 2023.
* Average realised price of gas in 2023 was about $2 per MMBtu. Note - Futures contracts are usually used hedge commodity price risk.
* Your annual revenue was therefore grossly overstated which throws off the rest of your calculations.

However, I commend you for this intellectual exercise.

Things to note:

Gas:
1000Scf = 1Mcf
1000Mcf = 1MMcf
1000MMcf = 1Bcf
1000Bcf = 1Tcf

BOE (Barrel of OIL Equivalent)
1BOE = 6000Scf or 6Mcf or 5.8MMBtu (approx 6MMBtu)

Oil
1BOE = 1bbl (basically oil quantity needs no conversion. Unlike gas and NGLs, what you get is what it is)

So when an Upstream company reports production numbers, they usually refer to BOE to capture Oil, Natural Gas and Natural Gas liquids. Also, you would often see Oil companies qualify an oil well or OML by the proportion of Oil it produces e.g OML ABC producing 70% Oil (that is the % of oil in the BOE).

Did you read the ThisDayLive publication whose link was posted by Mcy56? Or do you just want to engage me for no reason? I made it clear that my inputs were from that source. I also made it very clear that I didn't use peak values but 75% of peak values, as shown in my spreadsheet. If the 100,000 barrels per day figure is wrong, take it up with the source. Here's an excerpt from the publication:
"Today, Oando is the largest supplier of gas to the Eleme Petrochemicals. Aside from the issue of insecurity hobbling its activities, Oando's peak production was 100,000 barrels a day last year and 1.5 billion scf in the case of gas."

Tpharell:

Brilliant breakdown!
Forecasting using peak production is like calculating your travel time between Abuja and Lagos using your car’s top speed of 240km/hr. Who does that? What ever happened to downtimes like slow traffic, bad roads, police check points, etc?

I didn't use peak values; I'm not that stupid (In fact I am but not that much). I used 75% of peak values. My inputs are from the ThisDayLive publication. Therefore, you can argue about my costs, but the input clearly isn't from me. Thank you.

All this over sabi people that can't read.

Tpharell:

No one, certainly not myself said Seplat will not move as the divestment approval inches closer, just not the manner the Oando bull raged daily.

From my previous posts you can tell that i am very well positioned (almost certain more than you are) to benefit from any such raging bull. Just let’s not get our hopes too high and expect something close to the Oando rage!

I have mentioned long before now that Seplat is a peaceful stock for me, without the crazy & frenzied volatility of Oando which i exited earlier in the year to top up the Seplat. Four dollar denominated dividends already paid so far this year plus astonishing year-to-date growth with peace of mind, what else could anyone ask for?

The money we made from Oando is peace of a lifetime if judiciously used.

Payunsin:

The money we made from Oando is peace of a lifetime if judiciously used.

Even at the current price, based on publicly available information, Oando is still very cheap, unless management starts playing games. Just bookmark this post; we'll revisit it down the line.

dapix:


Its a CSR initiative !!

Fixed

Nataba:
Equity market drops 1.19% amid sell-offs in dangote cement, 27 others

https://businesspost.ng/economy/equity-market-drops-1-19-amid-sell-offs-in-dangote-cement-27-others/

Rather surprising that Seplat’s over half a million trades gain could not offset Dangote cement leading the chart to drag the equity market. I was so sure Seplat will ‘force’ the market to a green

Payunsin:

The money we made from Oando is peace of a lifetime if judiciously used.

It came with alot of stress owing to the frenzied and wild volatility. Some here have developed high bp, anxiety disorders, migraines, cognitive dissonance and even sadism (as we see in their daily wailings here) along the way. Seplat on the other hand peacefully and quietly delivered almost 300% in a year, without a headache.

Tpharell:

It came with alot of stress owing to the frenzied and wild volatility. Some here have developed high bp, anxiety disorders, migraines, cognitive dissonance and even sadism (as we see in their daily wailings here) along the way. Seplat on the other hand peacefully and quietly delivered almost 300% in a year, without a headache.

U forgot to mention the ....sweet..
Quarterly dividend...
Sure and Guaranteed...

Stocks that may fall further today:

1. First Bank Holding
2. Oando PLC
3. Dangote Cement
4. Dangote Sugar
5. Nascon
6. UBA

Tpharell:

No one, certainly not myself said Seplat will not move as the divestment approval inches closer, just not the manner the Oando bull raged daily.

From my previous posts you can tell that i am very well positioned (almost certain more than you are) to benefit from any such raging bull. Just let’s not get our hopes too high and expect something close to the Oando rage!

I have mentioned long before now that Seplat is a peaceful stock for me, without the crazy & frenzied volatility of Oando which i exited earlier in the year to top up the Seplat. Four dollar denominated dividends already paid so far this year plus astonishing year-to-date growth with peace of mind, what else could anyone ask for?

You're overlooking the fact that OANDO was significantly undervalued due to the fear of delisting, with ₦7 being the reference point. Once those delisting concerns eased, the subsequent price movement was expected.

The next catalyst was the official NAOC acquisition, and the upcoming wave will be their H2 results. Additionally, don't rule out the possibility of further acquisitions.

designking:
Stocks that may fall further today:

1. First Bank Holding
2. Oando PLC
3. Dangote Cement
4. Dangote Sugar
5. Nascon
6. UBA

What are your basis for the presumed FALL abi na dream levels?

In a sane clime, Zenith Bank stocks price is supposed to take a hit after having 4 days of downtime and trapped funds.

ositadima1:


Even at the current price, based on publicly available information, Oando is still very cheap, unless management starts playing games. Just bookmark this post; we'll revisit it down the line.

Are you doing ''marketing'' for Oando?
Are you doing ''monkey hunting'' for Oando?
Are you trying to ''push'' Oando price to N100?

Please let us all be careful.
Because there are some self-appointed ''policemen'' here that would accuse you of these ''offences'' if you are not careful.
However, you may be lucky and not get charged or accused of the offences because you are ''Osita''!

ositadima1:
All this over sabi people that can't read.

Someone took the time to breakdown the figures and point out erroneous assumptions that you swallowed hook line and sinker from the original writeup, someone that clearly understands the matter by miles ahead of you, and you refer to them in that manner?

The very foundational basis of the Thisday piece is faulty. Oando being “first Nigerian IOC” due to its interest and Operations in Sao Tome is erroneous. Other indigenous companies hold interests there in Sao Tome, Malabu, etc but are not referred to as IOCs. Amni petroleum has held working interest and operates an asset in Ghana, even though no one has recognized it as IOC, so Oando is certainly not the first.

How is Oando producing 100,000? Even if BOE?
Even one of their EDs was recently on Arisetv saying 100,000 is a target

Omooloriredade:


Good attempt but unfortunately GROSSLY inaccurate.

* Peak Oil production was not 100,000bbls/day. Should have been reported as 100,000BOE/day. Also, Peak production can't be used for forecasting.
* Based on point above re BOE, you can't multiply this figure by $76 (the price of oil).
* Gas production figure is wrong. Don't know where that came from. Oando produced c. 31,912,680 MMBtu of gas in 2023.
* Average realised price of gas in 2023 was about $2 per MMBtu. Note - Futures contracts are usually used hedge commodity price risk.
* Your annual revenue was therefore grossly overstated which throws off the rest of your calculations.

However, I commend you for this intellectual exercise.

Things to note:

Gas:
1000Scf = 1Mcf
1000Mcf = 1MMcf
1000MMcf = 1Bcf
1000Bcf = 1Tcf

BOE (Barrel of OIL Equivalent)
1BOE = 6000Scf or 6Mcf or 5.8MMBtu (approx 6MMBtu)

Oil
1BOE = 1bbl (basically oil quantity needs no conversion. Unlike gas and NGLs, what you get is what it is)

So when an Upstream company reports production numbers, they usually refer to BOE to capture Oil, Natural Gas and Natural Gas liquids. Also, you would often see Oil companies qualify an oil well or OML by the proportion of Oil it produces e.g OML ABC producing 70% Oil (that is the % of oil in the BOE).

How does anyone refer to someone that gave this breakdown and analysis as “oversabi people that cannot read”?

unite4real:
In a sane clime, Zenith Bank stocks price is supposed to take a hit after having 4 days of downtime and trapped funds.

Quite agree with you on this. Nigeria is such a peculiar and unique place

Those who just got into oando doing all they can to MH. They should release the updated version of their financials as a public company. Many media campaigns with distorted facts just to sell. Their demigod has many hustlers helping him here and many other media fronts.

Be wise

unite4real:
In a sane clime, Zenith Bank stocks price is supposed to take a hit after having 4 days of downtime and trapped funds.

In another saner clime, Zenith has nno business being below 100naira per share.

Ding !!!!

Ding!