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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Foreign Affairs / My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs (1111 Views)
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My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 6:45am On Oct 04 |
Many people find it strange that Iran had been at proxy war with Israel through Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria etc even though the distance between Iran and Israel is approximately 1600km. The problem between them is historic in nature and it cannot be separated from Religion. Even though Iran is at loggerhead with their predominantly Sunni neighbours championed by Saudi Arabia, they see themselves as the leader of the Islamic world who would usher in the coming of the 12 imam and the end of the world. This end of the world would be characterised with the ultimate destruction of Israel with victory already guaranteed by Allah as even nature will assist in the extermination of the Jews . This is the same goal shared with ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Taliban and even Boko-Haram. Sahih Muslim 2922 Abu Huraira reported Allah's Messenger (ﷺ) as saying: The last hour would not come unless the Muslims will fight against the Jews and the Muslims would kill them until the Jews would hide themselves behind a stone or a tree and a stone or a tree would say: Muslim, or the servant of Allah, there is a Jew behind me; come and kill him; but the tree Gharqad would not say, for it is the tree of the Jews. Why did I make the conclusion that Iran probably already has the Nuke? 1. The large distance between Iran and Israel will prevent a war by land. Thus, the superiority of Israeli army in terms of armaments will not be of much advantage 2. Iran has over the years developed their long range capabilities in terms of Drones, Cruise Missiles, Ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles (In November 2022, Iran announced the successful development of a hypersonic missile) 3. Iran had been developing their nuclear capabilities by enriching Uranium to fission grade. Allah they need now is a prototype of a working Atomic bomb for them to build their own bomb 4. The trouble of Russia with the war in Ukraine had made Russia heavily dependent on Iran for military hardwares. Iran must have negotiated a deal with Putin either a. To acquire a few Nukes from Russia or b. To acquire the Technology and technical expertise to fast-track a local production. Conclusion: Israel is definitely stronger than Iran in the Air, thus, Iran knowing that Israel would retaliate by first leveling their Uranium enrichment plant and other military infrastructure , it makes no sense for them to launch several ballistic missiles at Israel EXCEPT Iran already has the Atomic Bomb and Israel is the opportunity to use it. Here was the statement of Iranian leadership from 2005 President Ahmedinejad: "The Zionist regime and the Zionists are a cancerous tumor. Even if one cell of them is left in one inch of (Palestinian) land, in the future this story (of Israel's existence) will repeat. The nations of the region will soon finish off the usurper Zionists in the Palestinian land.... A new Middle East will definitely be formed. With the grace of God and help of the nations, in the new Middle East there will be no trace of the Americans and Zionists". What do you think would be the reaction of the World if Iran nukes Israel? 1 Like |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by ivolt: 7:15am On Oct 04 |
Your last statement if followed will be a suicide move. There is a reason why no nuclear armed state has nuked another nuclear armed state till date. It is because the reaction cannot be predicted. What if a country attacks with 2 nukes and the other respond with 20 thus effectively destroying a second chance at retaliation? Iran's case is more precarious because even if it nukes all of Israel, it will face utter destruction at the hands of the US. So, there is no way it comes out on top. If it nukes only a part of Israel, then it risks Israel nuking all its major and strategic cities. Essentially suicide move either way. I don't believe Iran has nukes, because it can't keep secrets due to espionage and strong divisions within the country. It is not about how fast it can acquire nuke but the usefulness of such acquisitions. Some reports says, Iran can develop nukes if it wants within a few weeks. As for Russia support, Russia will not join Iran in a war that may involve direct conflict with the west or Israel because it also has a lot to lose. A nuke for Iran will enable it to avoid being invaded, but it won't help it go on offensive against another nuclear armed state. 8 Likes 1 Share |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by Kh36: 7:20am On Oct 04 |
And you think if they do Israel and USA will not be aware? Iran no get anything. 1 Like
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Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 7:56am On Oct 04 |
Kh36:It is certain that Iran will use the Nuke on Israel if they have one because they are blinded by rage against Israel. USA was saying last week that Iran is just weeks away from the bomb. No one knows for sure how the world will react to a nation like Iran using the nukes. What I am sure about is that the world will try to prevail against Israel not to retaliate with her own nukes. 1 Like |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 8:07am On Oct 04 |
ivolt:Your analysis is very much on point. However, there is still this factor of irrationality especially from Iran as they see the extermination of Israel as their religious duty to do. Secondly, I am not sure there is a standard protocol on ground for a nation choosing to use the nukes on another. What I am sure about is that if Iran uses the nukes, the West would prevail on Israel NOT retaliate with nukes. Thirdly, I think that Iran is technologically developed to build their own nukes if they have a prototype with which to copy. With the new friendship of Iran and Russia, this can be done under the radar of foreign intelligence. Finally, it certainly doesn't make sense for Iran to attack Israel with ballistic missiles like they recently did. Thus I wonder if Iran has "something else " we don't know about! Otherwise, I seems it's a stupid mistake! |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by misreal(m): 8:21am On Oct 04 |
TenQ:This is why I have been quiet for sometime. I also think Iran has made a very stupid mistake if they have no hidden weapon. But then,with the way Israel has infiltrated Iran,there is a possibility that the mossad should have information about every weapon the ayatollah regime has. |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 9:00am On Oct 04 |
misreal:I agree to a very large extent. The irrationality of the action of Iran seems to align with what Ayatollah Khomeini said: Iran will gladly sacrifice herself to ensure that Israel exist no more. Let's cross our fingers and see what Iran will do after Israel levels most of their nuclear enrichment facilities and storages. The worrisome thing is that Iran does not have any serious Advance missile defense capability. The best they have is a few S300 from Russia (who themselves don't have enough for themselves now) |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by sailor2011(m): 9:24am On Oct 04 |
Regardless of what happens , the believe that Is real will go down is erroneous. That will never happen ....there is a superior higher power that will ensure that is real prevail...it is what it is.. |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 9:30am On Oct 04 |
sailor2011:I agree with you. The worst that can happen is that half of Israel is exterminated. Then we know that whoever negotiate the peace thereafter may be the Antichrist |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by Obrigardo: 10:15am On Oct 04 |
All thanks but no thanks to the obese slurring rapist and traitor trump who stopped the watchdogs over Iran. Iran was free to build atomic weapons without no oversight, rapist trump caused that. |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by misreal(m): 10:25am On Oct 04 |
TenQ:What if Israel just decides to shoot 200 ballistic missiles into Tehran as a response,do you think Iran can stop them? 1 Like |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 10:34am On Oct 04 |
misreal:I think that Israel will want to do far much more than that. Ballistic missiles from Israel might destroy a lot of surface targets BUT the aim of Israel would be to destroy the several UNDERGROUND nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran. This would require that they send in some F-35 with bunker burster bombs. Because of the large distance, Israel would need to support up to 20-30 F-35s with refuelling tanker planes. Except Israel have ballistic missiles that can carry some heavy duty bunker burster bombs. Whatever Israel decides to do, it's no easy feat as the target is the underground nuclear facilities. I will not be surprised if Israel make it a one week daily affair.of relentless bombing. |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 10:39am On Oct 04 |
Obrigardo:I discover that whenever the big nations like USA, China or Russia intervene in the national affairs of other countries, they cause a bigger long-term problem in the future. If USA has not tried to make the Sha of Iran a puppet, the Ayatollahs would not have taken over. A major question is, where is Iran sourcing it's Uranium? How much quantity it Iran procuring per year? How much quantity do they need for what they claim? |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by Obrigardo: 10:51am On Oct 04 |
TenQ: It's hard to say now because the traitor trump stop NECA, I thinks that's their name, the UN Nuclear watchdog over Iran, under the guise that the US Government is paying Iran in return for not to build nuclear weapons. So no oversight, and we don't have full info about their nuclear capabilities, tha ks to the rapist. |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 11:23am On Oct 04 |
Obrigardo:This is part of the big problem! As of 6 years ago, Iran had already gone above the recommended concentration of Uranium 235, only God knows how much they have in storage now. Apart from that, the desperation of Russia is a big factor. It is possible that they have given Iran a blue print and even sent them a few specialists in other than they can build their own bombs. In other words, Iran may not need to test their bomb to know if it will work or not. Otherwise, I still don't understand what Iran is banking on for attacking Israel. |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by misreal(m): 11:24am On Oct 04 |
TenQ:Wow.. Very nice input. |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 11:54am On Oct 04 |
misreal:It seems Israel wants to first achieve their objectives in Lebanon before facing Iran. I think it would be a daily run for at least one week before they stop. Israel will stop only when Iran stop retaliating |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by ivolt: 2:02pm On Oct 04 |
TenQ:The irrationality is a myth spread by war-weary western thinktanks and opinion leaders. As far as I know, even historically, no country leaders unanimously commits suicide based on sheer ideology. Leaders, even religious ones are the most pragmatic people in the society. The first question they usually ask is how can I survive this event, then followed by how can my country/supporters survive this. Forget about sending foot soldiers and proxy militants to die as "martyrs". Political leaders across the world tend not to attract mass-suicide events to themselves. They only talk and act tough when they are not the one to die. There is no protocol but simple cause and effect. Generally, the west will have no say. Currently, only one western country has the clout to even make such demand, that is the US. And to do that, it will have to offer Israel impossible deals that it cannot deliver. If you think otherwise, tell what can be promised to Israel that will make it back off for revenge and miss a one in a century chance? A lot of countries have capabilities to produce nuke but they don't. It is not about the technology, it is the advantage it offers. As I said, Iran can make nukes quickly if it wants(it already has the technical know how to do it) but for political reasons still dragging its feet. In the April attack, ballistic, cruise and drones were used. Only the ballistic missiles got through. It makes all sense to attack with ballistic missiles this time. Iran is simply sending a message that it can cause severe destruction. What would be a mistake is doing nothing. Iran is like North Korea in geo politics, it needs to loudly announce its capabilities as deterrent to its enemies. The day Iran has nukes, it will make a very loud announcement. But as I said, such nukes only confer an advantage that no country will invade Iran and non-nuclear state will be fearful of going against it but the nukes cannot be used against another nuclear armed state. Should that happen, all bets are off. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by NSNO(m): 2:48pm On Oct 04 |
I don't think Iran has nukes yet. Nuclear weapons serve as a deterrent to other nations so there is no need to have one and not announce it to the world that you have one. Personally I don't have a lot of faith in Iran's capabilities because it is very hard to develop world class weapons in isolation and Iran has pretty much been isolated for the past 50 years. |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 3:14pm On Oct 04 |
ivolt:I get your point, however, from the Islam that I know, their rationality cannot be depended upon. Why should a man tie explosives to himself so that he can blow himself up with others? Does it make sense? Why would Boko-Haram insist that Education is bad yet they don't equally feel that used of products of technology like their AK-47, IEDs and weapons of war is haram for them? Why do Muslims experience a rage when it comes to Israel? It is an ideology that has been ingrained for them. Qur'an 1:1-7 is the Al-Fathia and a prayer which Muslims must pray five times a day. Verse 6 & 7 says Guide us to the straight path – The path of those upon whom You have bestowed favor, not of those who have evoked [Your] anger or of those who are astray. If you check their Tafsirs on this verse. The Jews are the cursed one: the one Allah has invoked his curse while The Christians are the ones who have been led astray This is the beginning of the root of the Ideology of hate. One of their Hadiths says Boko-Haram. Sahih Muslim 2922 Abu Huraira reported Allah's Messenger (ﷺ) as saying: The last hour would not come unless the Muslims will fight against the Jews and the Muslims would kill them until the Jews would hide themselves behind a stone or a tree and a stone or a tree would say: Muslim, or the servant of Allah, there is a Jew behind me; come and kill him; but the tree Gharqad would not say, for it is the tree of the Jews. This is the root of the hate. Secondly, paradise and a minimum of 72 virgins is guaranteed for those who die in the cause of Jihad. This guarantee is not available to any other Muslim apart from those who die in the cause of Jihad. This is why rationality may not work for Iran. War of Ideology doesn't have any solution except a complete extermination of the religion of peace that is responsible for such. https://www.youtube.com/live/nTyUygV7HrU?si=nGz03tvn0j8wLTXA https://youtube.com/live/nTyUygV7HrU?si=kkD9nZ_1XbvFHvFv This is Live from Ayatollah Ali Kahmeni explaining that what they did to Israel was just a warning shot |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 3:22pm On Oct 04 |
NSNO:I agree with you for nations who are rational and willing fight wars only if it is of a defensive cause. How about a nation like Iran who are fighting Israel based on Ideology and Religion? How can Iran be appeaced? On what basis will you convince Iran to allow Israel to exist when their religion already says that Israel must be exterminated? This is the issue at stake sir |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by Whobedatte(m): 3:26pm On Oct 04 |
But they still need to test their nuclear weapons .it's one thing to have, another is to test. From which warplanes will Iran deliver its nuclear weapons or which submarine ? However , I still believe Isreal s retaliation will be more devastating as they have the best airforce in the middle east and can strike with heavy bunker busters to neutralize any underground. Moreover , Isreal has built underground bunkers for each place in their country and also have a better air defense mechanism. So Iran will lose more casualties as Isreal is just 10 million people with Iran 70 million . I stand to be corrected though but we all have seen Iran strike Isreal twice using hypersonic missiles. Let's wait for Isreals response to see who really has more devastating punch . |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 3:46pm On Oct 04 |
Whobedatte:The position of Iran is at best irrational because they do not have any good Air defence system (mainly S-300 and a few S-400) which is inadequate by the time you look at lifts performance in Ukraine. Israel had been dreaming of an opportunity to hit all the nuclear facilities of Iran for decades now and Iran just gave them such a reason. This will take Iran back at least 10 years to get back to where they are. Israel is far superior to Iran with respect to their Air force and Air armaments. The distance between the the counties is not practical for conventional land warfare. Except 1. Iran has a secret weapon no one knows about or 2. They intend to shoot down all Israeli satellites all at once. Otherwise, I think it was a stupid move by Iran. On the nuclear weapons: They don't need to test one. It's either 1. Russia has given them a few or 2. Russia has given them both the plan and human resources to help them build their own nukes |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by D1official: 4:59pm On Oct 04 |
TenQ:If such transactions had happened,the US and Israel would have known. I think Iranians miscalculated their move. |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by Xxxxtentacion2: 5:02pm On Oct 04 |
If Iran decides to use Nukes it suicide for them because Israel will survive and retaliate with their own nukes. They will be no actually winner but both parties will lose cities and suffer.. but in a nutshell I think it's suicide for Iran to use Nukes. |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 5:32pm On Oct 04 |
D1official:I agree that they probably allowed their emotions to take the best of them OR They have a secret weapon no one knows Even if they have nuclear bombs, they cannot have as much as Israel 1 Like |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 5:34pm On Oct 04 |
Xxxxtentacion2:I am perfectly in agreement with you except if their super-weapon is the anti-satellite missiles with which they can destroy at least 70-80% of all Israeli satellites. |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 5:34pm On Oct 04 |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 7:38pm On Oct 04 |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by id4sho(m): 9:21pm On Oct 04 |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by TenQ: 9:19am On Oct 05 |
Iran fought Israel through Hamas, which was liquidated by Israel Iran fought Israel through Houthis, which was liquidated by Israel Iran fought Israel through Hezbollah, which was also liquidated by Israel Hezbollah ran to Iran: " why now!?" "Don't leave us alone to fight Israel and die like dogs!" Iran showed its face all along behind the proxies: almost 400 ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles. We await what Israel will do: cause they still believe in the principle of "An Eye for an Eye, A Tooth for a Tooth!" |
Re: My Prediction: Iran Seems to Have Acquired Nuclear Bombs by bassdow: 9:39am On Oct 05 |
TenQ: Wonder how you analyse your report. iRan supplies nothing to Russia. Despite the conflict with Ukraine and NATO, Russia still supplies hardWare to countries such as China, India, etc. Even the WESTern media has repeatedly complained that what Russia shoots at Ukraine on a daily basis, the WEST + EU can't manufacture them in a month. Even the USA's claim of iRan supply Russia weapons is nothing but an excuse to strike iRran. Even iRan is currently trying to sign agreement with Russia to help them militarily. That the agreement ain't signed yet, doesn't necessarily mean Russia isn't helping them some how behind the scene. unfortunately, Russia is friends to both iRan and Israel thought hey appear closer to iRan for obvious reasons. Anyways, except you looking for cheap comment engagement, wonder why you guys keep spilling such inaccurate information. |
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