Tpharell:

Someone took the time to breakdown the figures and point out erroneous assumptions that you swallowed hook line and sinker from the original writeup, someone that clearly understands the matter by miles ahead of you, and you refer to them in that manner?

The very foundational basis of the Thisday piece is faulty. Oando being “first Nigerian IOC” due to its interest and Operations in Sao Tome is erroneous. Other indigenous companies hold interests there in Sao Tome, Malabu, etc but are not referred to as IOCs. Amni petroleum has held working interest and operates an asset in Ghana, even though no one has recognized it as IOC, so Oando is certainly not the first.

How is Oando producing 100,000? Even if BOE?

Tpharell:

It came with alot of stress owing to the frenzied and wild volatility. Some here have developed high bp, anxiety disorders, migraines, cognitive dissonance and even sadism (as we see in their daily wailings here) along the way. Seplat on the other hand peacefully and quietly delivered almost 300% in a year, without a headache.

megawealth01:


What are your basis for the presumed FALL abi na dream levels?

ositadima1:


I didn't use peak values; I'm not that stupid (In fact I am but not that much). I used 75% of peak values. My inputs are from the ThisDayLive publication. Therefore, you can argue about my costs, but the input clearly isn't from me. Thank you.

Tpharell:

Do you reckon the PIA’s prescription of Nigeria’s rights of up to 60% interest in a JV was violated by Mobil Nigeria’s concession of relinquishing additional 10% to the NNPCL’s 60% stake in the onshore/shallow water assets JV in the out of court settlement to facilitate their divestment to Seplat?

Because as it stands today Nigeria’s stake in that JV is 70%, contrary to the PIA’s spirit and letter, and contrary to common sense as well, as there is almost a consensus that NNPC needs to cutdown (not increase) its JV interests.

designking:

Profit taking for some of the stocks while others are based on fear for a further downward movement.

Though it is a great opportunity to further buy more units of these shares if they continue to fall further

ositadima1:


Did you read the ThisDayLive publication whose link was posted by Mcy56? Or do you just want to engage me for no reason? I made it clear that my inputs were from that source. I also made it very clear that I didn't use peak values but 75% of peak values, as shown in my spreadsheet. If the 100,000 barrels per day figure is wrong, take it up with the source. Here's an excerpt from the publication:
"Today, Oando is the largest supplier of gas to the Eleme Petrochemicals. Aside from the issue of insecurity hobbling its activities, Oando's peak production was 100,000 barrels a day last year and 1.5 billion scf in the case of gas."

ositadima1:


Mister..., Seplat did not achieve a 300% return in any recent years. It opened this year at 2,310 and closed yesterday at 4,513.4, for a 195% return (R+1). The returns for previous years were 210% in 2023, 169% (R+1) in 2022, and 161% (R+1) in 2021.

unite4real:
In a sane clime, Zenith Bank stocks price is supposed to take a hit after having 4 days of downtime and trapped funds.

Omooloriredade:


I tried to research if there was any legal basis for that but found nothing to support it. Some articles seems to suggest the NNPC sort a waiver in case they wanted a third party participant or investor in the future. Why would the NNPC seek such waiver? Could they be saving the 10% for a third party (if true).

Anyway, I couldn't tell ya what happened there so let me just stop with the speculation.

megawealth01:


Are you an investor or a trader or you do BOTH?

designking:

I do both. I bought first bank at ₦22 and it rose to ₦33... I sold off and Ai have started rebuying it.

Some of these stocks range within a high and a low... Holding them for months will only keep you in paper profit or loss if your goal is capital growth.

So I buy the low and sell the high. I bought Oando at ₦33 and sold it at ₦82... Now I am praying for it to return to ₦45-₦55 so that I can re-enter

Omooloriredade:


Production costs per BOE based on AUDITED 2023 annual reports:

Seplat - $10.4/BOE
Aradel - $21.0/bbls (Reported in bbls so refinery costs included. About 33% of crude produced feeds their refinery)
Oando - TBC

This is the fact of actual production cost. However, there are other taxes and royalties that apply in Oil & Gas production which is technically not included in determining cost of production. It is an industry standard the world over. It is technically incorrect to sum up all taxes, royalties to determine the cost of production.

As for Nigeria's interest in JV especially share of production, the country has the RIGHT for up to 60% as per the PIA.

https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2021/12/nigeria-overhauls-its-oil-and-gas-laws-with-petroleum-industry-act

unite4real:
In a sane clime, Zenith Bank stocks price is supposed to take a hit after having 4 days of downtime and trapped funds.

Tpharell:

About this time last year Seplat traded around 1,200 and today its 4,500 that’s closer to 300% than 200%.
Are you just interested in arguing the toss or you are one of those ‘elders’ here who feel they must be right about everything?

Nataba:
Caverton already on a u-turn??

Omooloriredade:


Hence the reason as stated "should have been reported as".

I see you don't like to be corrected.

Omooloriredade:


Hence the reason as stated "should have been reported as".

I see you don't like to be corrected.

yMcy56:
* CAVERTON: Full bid @2.62....
* ELLAHLAKES: Sighted @4.50....Up with +35k so far...
* GTCO: Touched 52 earlier.....
*

** all these traders are spoiling business for bonus lovers and investors alike.....

ositadima1:


Unless your definition of annual return is different, the return in a year is the closing price divided by the opening price.

For example, as per NGX, a stock is capped at 10% daily movement; it can't gain more than 10% in a day. If a stock drops 10% intraday but finally closes at a 10% gain, it still made 10% that day. This is the standard definition, unless you want to introduce your own.

Tpharell:

The grandstanding is unnecessary, honestly. Certain people here feel because they are referred to as ‘elders’ they cannot be wrong on matters.
Clearly Oando is not producing 100,000 now or anytime soon, but still grandstanding after forecasting on such erroneous basis?

Tpharell:

Unnecessary grandstanding that I don’t want to indulge as i have already shown you that in about a year Seplat shares climbed about 300%

ositadima1:


I take correction very well; that's how I learn. In this case, I clearly stated that my estimates are based on ThisDayLive inputs. I never claimed 100,000 barrels a day was the actual figure. So, I don't see what your correction was. If the figure is wrong, okay, but what I was more interested in were the other costs and whether they are in line. You started giving long explanations about BOE, barrels, and conversions, which are irrelevant to my post. One barrel is about 76 dollars, and the publication referred to barrels per day.

Omooloriredade:


Good attempt but unfortunately GROSSLY inaccurate.

* Peak Oil production was not 100,000bbls/day. Should have been reported as 100,000BOE/day. Also, Peak production can't be used for forecasting.
* Based on point above re BOE, you can't multiply this figure by $76 (the price of oil).
* Gas production figure is wrong. Don't know where that came from. Oando produced c. 31,912,680 MMBtu of gas in 2023.
* Average realised price of gas in 2023 was about $2 per MMBtu. Note - Futures contracts are usually used hedge commodity price risk.
* Your annual revenue was therefore grossly overstated which throws off the rest of your calculations.

However, I commend you for this intellectual exercise.

Things to note:

Gas:
1000Scf = 1Mcf
1000Mcf = 1MMcf
1000MMcf = 1Bcf
1000Bcf = 1Tcf

BOE (Barrel of OIL Equivalent)
1BOE = 6000Scf or 6Mcf or 5.8MMBtu (approx 6MMBtu)

Oil
1BOE = 1bbl (basically oil quantity needs no conversion. Unlike gas and NGLs, what you get is what it is)

So when an Upstream company reports production numbers, they usually refer to BOE to capture Oil, Natural Gas and Natural Gas liquids. Also, you would often see Oil companies qualify an oil well or OML by the proportion of Oil it produces e.g OML ABC producing 70% Oil (that is the % of oil in the BOE).

ositadima1:


So ThisDayLive's numbers are wrong? Why didn't you come here earlier? It was posted here for more than two days. And what are the actual numbers? How can we substantiate your figures?

Tpharell:


The “long explanations about BOE, barrels, and conversions, which are irrelevant to my post” are supposed to be education for you but you seem more interested in grandstanding with what is in your head. How can any sane and enlightened mind say the brilliant breakdown and analysis given there were “irrelevant”? Haba!

mikeapollo:


Great piece.!
I will encourage you to always share your knowledge in these matters. I am learning a lot.
We may disagree on our assessment or opinions about stocks because of our investment interests.
But where professional knowledge about matters or issues in a particular sector (e.g. energy sector) is concerned, I will urge all of us to appreciate knowledge when shared by those who know better.
It is the knowledge that matters (after all, we used to listen and learn from our lecturers in school even when we did not like them because they were too harsh or chasing the same babe with us ).