Zagee:

First buy since covid. Topped up at circa 9.

You sabi better soup

ACCESS go make us proud some day

It's a long read but it will help someone HERE

Warren Buffett said he'd buy a couple hundred thousand single family homes if he could, and he'd take out mortgages to do it.

In 2012, Warren Buffett made headlines with his bold commentary on the housing market during an interview on CNBC's Squawk Box with Becky Quick.

At the time, the U.S. economy was still recovering from the devastating effects of the 2008 financial crisis and the housing market was one of the sectors with the most impact. Yet, Buffett's perspective was unusually optimistic. He famously stated, "If I had a way of buying a couple hundred thousand single-family homes and had a way of managing them … I would load up on them. I would take mortgages out at very, very low rates." For Buffett, homes were not just shelter but a prime investment opportunity, especially with borrowing costs at rock-bottom lows.

This insight came when confidence in real estate was shaky at best and many people hesitated to dive back into the market. However, for Buffett, the crisis created a window of opportunity that savvy investors could capitalize on if they had the foresight and patience.

His well-known quote, "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful," perfectly captured the mindset needed to navigate that turbulent time. Investors who followed this advice likely saw significant rewards as the market rebounded.

For example, in 2012, the median price for a single-family home in the U.S. was around $180,000. By 2024, that number reached about $418,000. That's a jump of roughly 132% over 12 years. No one has a crystal ball to predict what the market will do, but real estate has proven to be a steady and stable way of building wealth.

its simplicity. He recommended buying homes with a 30-year mortgage, arguing that homes would outperform even stocks if purchased at the right price over the long term.

Over the years, the billionaire investor has consistently praised the 30-year mortgage. In a 2017 CNBC interview, he said, "It's a one-way renegotiation. It is an incredibly attractive instrument for the homeowner and you’ve got a one-way bet." If the rates go down, refinance and pay off the home early. If they go up, you're locked in.

Fast-forward to 2024 and it's clear why Buffett's advice has endured. The housing market has changed dramatically since 2012, with home prices surging in many regions and interest rates rising after years of historical lows. In today's market, buying "a couple hundred thousand homes" might sound like a distant fantasy for the average investor.

As interest rates fluctuate and many prospective homeowners face uncertainty about where the housing market is headed, Buffett's advice to think long-term remains as relevant as ever. Holding properties for the long haul, rather than trying to time the market, is a strategy that still pays dividends.

chillykelly86:


Wait, is Agba the same as Oracle?

Rabid'oracle is not the only Oracle na

Toluway:

Rabid'oracle is not the only Oracle na

When Oracle don abandon us,Agba should replace

Please where is @Marketjjc and @Mankind001, it’s been a while reading their post

Respect 🙌 to every great persons keeping up this thread

Alagbalaowo:
Please where is @Marketjjc and @Mankind001, it’s been a while reading their post

Respect 🙌 to every great persons keeping up this thread

As for Marketjjc he probably has established a physical business from his loots while Mankind001is now more active in the US markets trend (group) where we both are members

Alagbalaowo:
Please where is @Marketjjc and @Mankind001, it’s been a while reading their post

Respect 🙌 to every great persons keeping up this thread

Choiceguy:


When Oracle don abandon us,Agba should replace

Lol your face! Throughout this year and the previous one, Agba has been posting relentlessly that a bear market was imminent, claiming it was only a matter of months away. When he was making these posts, StreetInvestor, Mcy56, and I were his strongest opponents.

You want stocks to crash? Even my friend at the local market knows that can't happen. The cost of land has increased significantly, along with machinery and vehicles. Why would stocks, which represent proportional claims to companies with vast resources in land and machinery, fall in value without debt?

It's now almost the end of the year, and the predicted bear market hasn't materialized. Now the goalposts have been shifted to next year. It makes no sense that shares would fall while prices of other assets continue to rise. Maybe to the new Oracle...

Potential triggers that could cause a market crash:

Monetary Policy Shocks
Extreme interest rate hikes by CBN
Further dramatic Naira devaluation
Severe foreign exchange liquidity crisis
Restrictive monetary policies affecting market liquidity


Economic Issues
Severe recession
Rapid inflation acceleration beyond control
Major decline in oil prices (affecting FX earnings)
Significant drop in foreign reserves
Banking sector crisis


Political/Policy Risks
Dramatic policy shifts affecting business environment
Political instability
Major regulatory changes affecting key sectors
Hostile business legislation
Poor implementation of reforms


External Shocks
Global financial crisis
Major geopolitical events affecting trade
International commodity price collapse
Foreign investor exodus from emerging markets


Market-Specific Issues
Panic selling by major institutional investors
Discovery of significant corporate fraud
Collapse of a major market player
Crisis in systemically important sectors (like banking)
Market manipulation scandals


Domestic Business Environment
Corporate earnings collapse across board
Major corporate defaults
Severe infrastructure breakdown affecting business operations
Supply chain crisis

Nigerian market Crashes (Recent times)

2008-2009 Crash
Triggered by: Global financial crisis + oil price collapse
*Banking sector crisis emerged
*Market lost about 70% of value
*Many margin loans defaulted
*Led to banking sector reforms


2014-2016 Decline
Caused by: Oil price crash
*FX crisis followed
*Foreign investors exited
*Multiple Naira devaluations
*Corporate earnings struggled


2020 COVID Crash
Swift but relatively short

Market recovered quickly due to:
*Low interest rates
*Local investor participation
*Strong corporate adaptability




Notable Sector-Specific Events
Banking Sector:
*2009 banking crisis showed how one sector can drag entire market
*Affected confidence in market for years
*Led to stricter regulations

Oil & Gas:
*Historical oil price crashes showed vulnerability
*2014/15 crash particularly significant
*Companies with dollar debt struggled most

Current Market Differences vs Past Crashes:
Companies generally have:
*Lower leverage levels
*Better corporate governance
*More diversified revenue streams
*Better risk management

Market Structure:
*More domestic institutional investors
*Better regulations
*Improved technology/trading systems
*More retail investor participation

Alagbalaowo:
Please where is @Marketjjc and @Mankind001, it’s been a while reading their post

Respect 🙌 to every great persons keeping up this thread

Jijo is no longer that lucrative here for someone..lol

Streetinvestor2:
Jijo is no longer that lucrative here for someone..lol

let's not mention marketjjc's name

ositadima1:




Lol your face! Throughout this year and the previous one, Agba has been posting relentlessly that a bear market was imminent, claiming it was only a matter of months away. When he was making these posts, StreetInvestor, Mcy56, and I were his strongest opponents.

You want stocks to crash? Even my friend at the local market knows that can't happen. The cost of land has increased significantly, along with machinery and vehicles. Why would stocks, which represent proportional claims to companies with vast resources in land and machinery, fall in value without debt?

It's now almost the end of the year, and the predicted bear market hasn't materialized. Now the goalposts have been shifted to next year. It makes no sense that shares would fall while prices of other assets continue to rise. Maybe to the new Oracle...

Na even next yr better bull go happen after q1 results because many companies go don survive the forex loss. And effect of recapitalisation by some businesses and banks go begin show for thr books.Then next year go be bull run for some of this insurance companies that have survived, cleaned thr books and met regulatory standards

100% will be easy in some insurance companies trading now at 50/60 kobo with good eps

Yemy3m:
eterna is after .board meeting.

I hope the news go soon break out

What about Chapel Hill Denham securities?

Locotrader:


Did you consider their charges before choosing them.choose wisely now to save money.

Cardinal stone 1.44% all charges
Stanbic 1.13%
Atlas portfolio arnd 0.85%
Investment one 1.8%
Meristem 1.8%

The first 2 are the top brokers in Nigeria and where I am heading to.....
Fundings and withdrawals are as simple as Abc

Investment one has a good platform.Funding and withdrawals are very simple but their charges are high 1.8% buy and 2.1% sell.

Choiceguy:


I hope the news go soon break out

Which news, sir?

Toluway:

The real Oracle himself!
Thank you Ginalex for making him rumble 😁

Gamble or investment?

megawealth01:
If you have spare cash just get into UNITY BANK immediately they get off suspension at 1.5+ you won't regret it... Although many of us bought crazily low anyways

DD as always

A touch of both...

jckgroup1:
Gamble or investment?

jckgroup1:
Gamble or investment?

Opportunity and danger coexist.

I think it is too early to be too optimistic, so many factors need to be put into consideration e.g Budget, New Tax law, finance bill etc. People's earning capacity has been badly punctured which will affect listed companies products. If the economy trend continues in this manner, there might be unrest in the country, people will be looting warehouse for survival.

Streetinvestor2:
Na even next yr better bull go happen after q1 results because many companies go don survive the forex loss. And effect of recapitalisation by some businesses and banks go begin show for thr books.Then next year go be bull run for some of this insurance companies that have survived, cleaned thr books and met regulatory standards

100% will be easy in some insurance companies trading now at 50/60 kobo with good eps

phadriz:
I think it is too early to be too optimistic, so many factors need to be put into consideration e.g Budget, New Tax law, finance bill etc. People's earning capacity has been badly punctured which will affect listed companies products. If the economy trend continues in this manner, there might be unrest in the country, people will be looting warehouse for survival.

At the basic level, the current minimum wage increase will mean more buying power for workers across the nation. This will increase the turnover of most FMCG and the banks.

The new wage increase means an additional ₦4trillion from the FG, another ₦5trillion from state government and ₦10trillion from the private sector.


This is a lot of money entering the economy

phadriz:
I think it is too early to be too optimistic, so many factors need to be put into consideration e.g Budget, New Tax law, finance bill etc. People's earning capacity has been badly punctured which will affect listed companies products. If the economy trend continues in this manner, there might be unrest in the country, people will be looting warehouse for survival.

The budget, new tax law,finance bill etc has always existed at different percentage and cannot cause bear.
Then no unrest that will happen because naija man dey fear to die.Then again the country is divided along so many lines so we can never have a single front. The last protest showed it well and it failed.
My dear I am very optimistic because I have been long in the business. Come next yr before q1 results I will pump plenty money into selected sound company. The q3 results and full year results will give a better direction .2025 will be a blast after all this forex loss by many when they come out.It is the bear period for selected stocks that it bartered thr price.

Come 2025.,the country/economy will be recalibrate to the new reality of fuel prices and exchange rate..Some companies will get out of forex losses via different ways or reduce it.Trade Surplus will increase. I see 2025 as the yr to hammer big in this business if you get your picks right. Some sectors are going to blow big time.
The government will soon free the telecoms and power companies. It will likely happen next yr

Please where are these trillions coming from...

designking:

At the basic level, the current minimum wage increase will mean more buying power for workers across the nation. This will increase the turnover of most FMCG and the banks.

The new wage increase means an additional ₦4trillion from the FG, another ₦5trillion from state government and ₦10trillion from the private sector.


This is a lot of money entering the economy

We now have a tax collector as president, Taiwo Oyedele new tax reform will be implemented which will be strange to the system.
Yes, I agree that Nigerians could act like coward, but you need to remember the COVID-19 palliative looting during Endsars. An hungry man is an angry man. Also remember the unrest in Asia and possible impact it could cause to the world economy if not well managed.
My prayer is for the market to be bullish but we need to consider negative factors also.

Streetinvestor2:
The budget, new tax law,finance bill etc has always existed at different percentage and cannot cause bear.
Then no unrest that will happen because naija man dey fear to die.Then again the country is divided along so many lines so we can never have a single front. The last protest showed it well and it failed.
My dear I am very optimistic because I have been long in the business. Come next yr before q1 results I will pump plenty money into selected sound company. The q3 results and full year results will give a better direction .2025 will be a blast after all this forex loss by many when they come out.It is the bear period for selected stocks that it bartered thr price.

Nigerians throw numbers anyhow, governors that were unable to pay 30k will now pay 70k? Very funny. How many states in Nigeria has 2023 budget above 500B ? Very few. He expected companies with dwindling revenue and huge loss to pay big salaries, from where? He need to remember that the more the companies pay more salaries the less their profit which will impact on shareholders' fund. Unfortunately, he is also a shareholder, so NO DIVIDEND for him 😂

KarlTom:
Please where are these trillions coming from...

Companies will get out of forex losses how? Are Nigerian companies selling their products in dollars? Are you saying the accumulated losses will wipe away automatically? Trade surplus will increase when Nigeria is an import economy, a country that couldn't meet OPEC quota.
I think pipeline vandalism will be on the raise in 2025 with the cancellation of ministry of Niger Delta.

Streetinvestor2:
Come 2025.,the country/economy will be recalibrate to the new reality of fuel prices and exchange rate..Some companies will get out of forex losses via different ways or reduce it.Trade Surplus will increase. I see 2025 as the yr to hammer big in this business if you get your picks right. Some sectors are going to blow big time.
The government will soon free the telecoms and power companies. It will likely happen next yr

designking:

At the basic level, the current minimum wage increase will mean more buying power for workers across the nation. This will increase the turnover of most FMCG and the banks.

The new wage increase means an additional ₦4trillion from the FG, another ₦5trillion from state government and ₦10trillion from the private sector.


This is a lot of money entering the economy

is there an actual increase in buying power in real term? Your guess is as good as mine

emmanuelewumi:



Few weeks can't be a bear, more like a correction.


Bull market ionger and sweet, bear market is shorter about 25% of the duration of a bull market but it is brutal for investors with poor risk management.

If you are liquid, you are bound to make money in a bear market.

Hiii

Can you teach we, newbies about risk management in the NGX

PLEASE!!!

designking:

At the basic level, the current minimum wage increase will mean more buying power for workers across the nation. This will increase the turnover of most FMCG and the banks.

The new wage increase means an additional ₦4trillion from the FG, another ₦5trillion from state government and ₦10trillion from the private sector.


This is a lot of money entering the economy

And this should lead to inflation.
Now CBN will have to squeeze these funds by increasing interest rates to attract investors.
This will have negative effects on the stock market.
These things are just like pills. You solve one problem and create another.

In Megawealth's word is either Gamble or investment. I still dey look well well if both dey there or do I need to see with 10D

Oga Megawealth01 please clarify 🙏

KarlTom:
A touch of both...

Bolded seems to 👉 investment...
@Megawealth01 am I in order? Na for clarity sake... Nobody go drag you oo.

I am still the CEO of my portfolio.

megawealth01:
If you have spare cash just get into UNITY BANK immediately they get off suspension at 1.5+ [b]you won't regret it... [/b]Although many of us bought crazily low anyways

DD as always