Streetinvestor2:
I have never believed in TA..my opinion. If you go back to my old post.i have always maintained it only works if you can pull enough crowd to believe in the interpretation of what you are seeing. The same chart always have different readings from different people. If your TA saw that ucap will declare 2 for 1 bonus,FMN will delist and wapco will be bought by chinko company. Bros you for done be dollar billion here.And not hiding what you bought and targeting 100%. .Now you TA is telling you the market will crash first quarter abi.We are waiting. This your TA that lied about gtbank that is almost doing another 100% after you have sold.TA na complete probability in logic sample

Streetinvestor2, Agba is more of FA than TA o! But how can TA or FA tells you about the bolded? I want to believe you're just exaggerating

Streetinvestor2:
The first news that moved onado was not agip deal.Agip deal came later.And the thing that will move it going forward is quarter results and not news or acquisition in 2025 and beyond. When they hit 50,000 and above the price will definitely fly without any acquisition. Make una dey remember say nobi newbies only they this thread..Abeg some of us don pass 20yrs in this business

Well if you check the chart it will give you a big picture of what happened

when they announced q1 report in march, price share was 10 naira (jan-march)

quater 2 report in june price share was 16 naira (april -june)

agip deal happened in quater 3 - august 22

price pumped from 16 naira-60 naira

after the deal, price continue pumping to 89 naira. (fear of missing out)

i stand with what i wrote down, the agip deal pumped oando share price.

the shares will dump when institutions and insiders start taking profit and there is no news or event to pump price.

BullBearMkt:

Streetinvestor2, Agba is more of FA than TA o! But how can TA or FA tells you about the bolded? I want to believe you're just exaggerating

GA + FA + TA in that order

Only thou knowest

Payunsin:
I am mopping UPDC.
Hope I am ok sha?

motymop:




the shares will dump when institutions and insiders start taking profit and there is no news or event to pump price.

This moniker is a new one to me on this thread. I am only interested in this statement. Let see what happens after q1 2025 results. Mr time will decide
Book mark I hope they could be doing 50,000 by then.

Payunsin:
I am mopping UPDC.
Hope I am ok sha?

You can become the board chairman like Otedola

Agbalowomeri:


A bill to that effect has passed second reading in the national Assembly

The executive still holds the axe.
We don't need any change in our law for NAICOM to raise the minimum capital for insurance operators in the country.
Or did the CBN pass through the national Assembly before asking banks to raise their minimum capital?
I don't rate the law maker at all.

mikeapollo:

The market will not crash soon. At least not in the next 2 years. Unlike what happened during the global crisis of 2008-2010 when foreign investors dominated the NGX and the market crashed when they sold off, the market is now dominated more by local investors who took advantage of the crash in prices to load more shares. Hence the NGX is a bit more shielded from the volatility of foreign markets.
More funds would be pushed into the economy between now and next year when politicians start their election campaigns and some of the funds will trickle into the stocks market. But a serious political crisis or uncertainty can cause the market to shed some weight

True.

I also think of regular pension fund money coupled with the fact that the companies are now bigger and better than 2008-2010 era.

SOCIALISM: You have two cows, and you give one to your neighbor.

COMMUNISM: You have two cows, the government takes both and gives you milk.

FASCISM: You have two cows, the government takes both and sells you milk.

NAZISM: You have two cows, the government takes them and kills you.

CAPITALISM: You have two cows, you sell one and buy a male. You multiply your cows and there is economic growth. You sell them, you retire and you live on your profits.

MODERN CAPITALISM: You have two cows, you sell one and buy a male. You multiply your cows and you buy those of your neighbors. The latter become your shepherds, you pay them in monkey currencies and they die poor.

AMERICAN SOCIETY: You have two cows, you sell one and you have to make the other one to produce milk like 4 cows. By dint of producing beyond her capacity, she dies. You take a consultant to understand this death.

FRENCH SOCIETY: You have two cows, you go on strike because you want a third.

GERMAN SOCIETY: You have two cows, you modify them so that they live 100 years, eat once a month and treat themselves.

CHINESE SOCIETY: You have two cows, you sell milk to your compatriots and you produce plastic milk to export to the rest of the world.

AFRICAN SOCIETY: You have two cows, you eat them all the same day and you dream that donors or the international community give you others. You go to a church and hope for miracle cattle. You fast 40 days and 40 nights without eating or drinking so that the cows will fall from Heaven.

At last You die in extreme poverty.

Mind set is paramount.

pluto09:


The executive still holds the axe.
We don't need any change in our law for NAICOM to raise the minimum capital for insurance operators in the country.
Or did the CBN pass through the national Assembly before asking banks to raise their minimum capital?
I don't rate the law maker at all.

CBN has some level of independence from the national Assembly. Can't say same for NAICOM

Compliment of the season.

ghm:


True.

I also think of regular pension fund money coupled with the fact that the companies are now bigger and better than 2008-2010 era.

Yes. Pension funds and other institutional investors are playing very big in the market now

Pojomojo:
SOCIALISM: You have two cows, and you give one to your neighbor.

COMMUNISM: You have two cows, the government takes both and gives you milk.

FASCISM: You have two cows, the government takes both and sells you milk.

NAZISM: You have two cows, the government takes them and kills you.

CAPITALISM: You have two cows, you sell one and buy a male. You multiply your cows and there is economic growth. You sell them, you retire and you live on your profits.

MODERN CAPITALISM: You have two cows, you sell one and buy a male. You multiply your cows and you buy those of your neighbors. The latter become your shepherds, you pay them in monkey currencies and they die poor.

AMERICAN SOCIETY: You have two cows, you sell one and you have to make the other one to produce milk like 4 cows. By dint of producing beyond her capacity, she dies. You take a consultant to understand this death.

FRENCH SOCIETY: You have two cows, you go on strike because you want a third.

GERMAN SOCIETY: You have two cows, you modify them so that they live 100 years, eat once a month and treat themselves.

CHINESE SOCIETY: You have two cows, you sell milk to your compatriots and you produce plastic milk to export to the rest of the world.

AFRICAN SOCIETY: You have two cows, you eat them all the same day and you dream that donors or the international community give you others. You go to a church and hope for miracle cattle. You fast 40 days and 40 nights without eating or drinking so that the cows will fall from Heaven.

At last You die in extreme poverty.

Mind set is paramount.

In LEFTISM you will keep your two cows, but the Government will impose :

70% tax on the proceed from the sale of the milk they produce,

70% tax on the proceed, the day you decide to sell the cows themselves,

70% capital gain tax on the profit, if you sell them higher than you bought,

70% windfall tax, if the profit is extraordinarily huge.

motymop:


lol

this is the event that happened IN Oando stock price and i am not using TA, but just following the news and rumours

if you follow the news, you would made *3 of your money

my prediction is that Oando share price will get dumped in 4-6 months, if no new acquisition happen

what made Oando pump is simply buy the news sell the rumor and it is all related to the agip deal.

When tinunu became president, share prices were at 4.9 naira

from march 2023- may 2024, insiders and banks were buying up shares.

then retail started pumping the price up

after the agip deal in august 2024, price pumped to 89 naira.

so it was literally a buy the news, sell the rumour event.

you do not need TA

So, you've made your prediction. Let me tell you something—there are always people who are privy to early information, whether through direct knowledge or other means. These insights often reflect on the chart ahead of time. Most of the time, you'll notice large volumes without significant price movement. That's someone in the know taking a position, even before the news breaks (sometimes months ahead of the news).

This is just one of many subtle signals. If you know where to look, the chart will "speak" to you before the news becomes public, as long as there are people motivated by potential gains this will keep happening. Like electricity, you can’t hold it or see it, but its effects are undeniable, and those with the right tools can measure it.

You don’t have to believe me—just stick to the strategy you trust.

For example, keep an eye on TotalEnergies—something is brewing there, most likely something positive that could drive the price up. The signs are already showing on the chart. Perhaps three to six months down the line, when the news finally breaks, you'll consider buying, lol.

Care4:
The solution is not in farming season, we have to improve storage of excess harvest at farming season and increase dry season farming. All year farming is the way out... irrigation, green house, improved variety for dry season, etc.

Very well said.

Post-harvest loses reduction and eventual eradication is key (through value addition until when needed for actual use by the industries or for home use).

Some premises make developing markets like Nigeria interesting.

Market Structure:
- The market lacks complex derivatives and hedging tools that fragment trading in developed markets. This means when someone wants to take a position, they often have to do it directly in the stock.

- With fewer institutional players and automated systems, large trades are more likely to represent actual investment decisions rather than technical rebalancing.

- Ownership is often concentrated among a smaller group of players who may have better access to information networks.

Information Flow:
- News often travels through business/social networks before hitting official channels

- With fewer research analysts, many stocks have limited coverage, meaning price-moving information isn't as thoroughly analyzed and distributed

- Corporate disclosures might be less frequent and detailed than in developed markets

- This information asymmetry means market prices sometimes move before news becomes public

Volume Signals in This Context:
- When you see unusually high volume, it's less likely to be due to index rebalancing or options expiry

- If prices stay stable despite large volume, it could mean:
* A well-informed buyer is accumulating carefully
* Someone with conviction about future developments is taking position
* Multiple informed parties might be active

- The limited number of major players means significant volume often has more direct meaning


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ositadima1:
For example, keep an eye on TotalEnergies—something is brewing there, most likely something positive that could drive the price up. The signs are already showing on the chart. Perhaps three to six months down the line, when the news finally breaks, you'll consider buying, lol.

This might be part of why TotalEnergies is turning to a "Brewery".

https://nairametrics.com/2024/12/19/totalenergies-mrs-others-win-new-oil-blocks-in-fgs-first-commercial-bid-round/

Fidelity Bank: A Stellar Performance in Q3 2024 – Doubling Gross Earnings and Surging Profitability

Fidelity Bank Plc has delivered an impressive performance in the nine months leading up to Q3 2024, marking a transformative period for the bank. Its gross earnings saw a remarkable increase, doubling from N388.8 billion in 2023 to N772.5 billion in 2024, signaling its robust growth trajectory. This surge in earnings was bolstered by an outstanding performance in key revenue streams, most notably in fees and commission income, which rose substantially from N36.4 billion to N56.3 billion.

The most striking figure in the bank's Q3 performance is its Profit After Tax (PAT), which skyrocketed by an impressive 2.5 times to N224.7 billion. This surge reflects a combination of operational efficiency, strong market positioning, and an ability to leverage favourable economic conditions.

A closer look at Fidelity Bank’s financial performance reveals a heavy tilt toward net interest income (NII), which constituted a dominant 83.0% of operating income. This highlights the bank’s ability to capitalise on the higher yield environment, with a keen focus on managing interest expenses effectively. Despite challenges posed by rising interest rates, the bank’s strategy has allowed it to contain the negative impact on interest expenses, resulting in a strong net interest margin (NIM) expansion of 3.5 percentage points, reaching 11.9%.

The favourable interest rate environment has played a crucial role in the bank’s performance. The growth in NII indicates that Fidelity Bank has successfully maximised its interest-earning assets, thereby driving operating income growth even amid rising rates. This performance underscores the bank's impressive capability to navigate complex macroeconomic conditions.

On the other hand, non-interest revenue (NIR) showed a modest improvement, contributing 17.0% to the bank's operating income, reinforcing the diversified nature of its earnings. While NIR growth is important, the bank’s ability to rely heavily on NII showcases its strong foundation in the core banking business.

Earnings Per Share (EPS) also saw a notable jump, rising from N286.7 to N701.8 in Q3 2024. This upward movement in EPS reflects the bank's exceptional profitability and its successful execution of strategies designed to boost shareholder value.

Looking ahead into 2025, the bank’s strategic focus will be on maximising higher asset yields in the first half of 2025 and expanding its interest-earning assets (IEA) to sustain the momentum in NII growth. Given that NII has been the primary contributor to operating income over the past five years (around 77.2%), maintaining growth in this area will be pivotal for Fidelity Bank.

Despite an anticipated 200 basis points (bps) moderation in yields across the yield curve, the outlook for the bank remains optimistic. The firm is well-positioned to achieve a 50.9% increase in PAT, which is forecasted to reach N421.9 billion by the end of financial year 2025, driven by its strong fundamentals and capacity to adapt to changing market conditions.

As a result of these stellar performance metrics, Fidelity Bank has a 12-month Target Price (TP) upward to N18.91, from the previous TP of N14.80. This will be primarily driven by an improvement in the bank's return on equity (ROE), which is expected to average 40.1% over the forecast horizon, a significant increase from its 5-year historical mean of 14.7%. The new TP reflects a promising upside potential of 18.2%, based on a reference price of N16.00.

However, it is important to note that the upside is tempered by the dilutive impact of the additional 27,343,589,744 shares issued via a rights issue and public offer, which has led to a larger share base. Despite this dilution, Fidelity Bank's robust performance and solid growth trajectory make it an attractive investment.

In light of these developments, our recommendation for Fidelity Bank's stock is a BUY. With strong fundamentals, continued growth prospects, and a promising financial outlook, Fidelity Bank is positioned to maintain its upward trajectory, offering significant returns for investors.

If only that were the problem. The main challenge in insurance in Naija is the topline: Industry premiums are not growing fast enough compared to the market potential. People are just not insuring insurable risks. It's hard enough to compel car insurance, talk less of coverage for homes, businesses, life, and health.

So you will have all these companies with all these new shares demanding a return on investment, but the investment opportunities are just not there yet. Which rational investor would buy knowing that?

chimex38:

...
An increased Capitalisation requirement can help absorb such risk whenever they occur,
If it happens,
-increased dividend yield for some;
-Consistent yearly dividend for others;
investors might want to increase the average Price-Earning valuation ratio of the industry in general to say 4X-6X despite the dilution.

Even with the dilution, the OS might not be as much as compared to other sectors doing recapitalisation.

That could be one part of the whole picture.

ositadima1:
For example, keep an eye on TotalEnergies—something is brewing there, most likely something positive that could drive the price up. The signs are already showing on the chart. Perhaps three to six months down the line, when the news finally breaks, you'll consider buying, lol.

At what price range is your chart showing accumulation
Though I expect it to hit 1k after 2024/q1 2025 results. I have afolabi units bought above #300

zendi:

This might be part of why TotalEnergies is turning to a "Brewery".

https://nairametrics.com/2024/12/19/totalenergies-mrs-others-win-new-oil-blocks-in-fgs-first-commercial-bid-round/

Not sure the total Energies in question is the downstream business on ngx. The only sell petroleum products and not exploration.

I wouldn't buy now. But that's just me. Most of the stocks are small-cap insurance stocks. The industry regulator and the National Assembly are weighing a recapitalization exercise. I don't see many opportunities for near-term premium growth without major policy reforms.

But I do see massive long-term promise in the sector. The market is less than 5% penetrated. The only direction is up.

Toluway:

So your opinion is, don't buy ?
You want to kindly say it clearly.

HesInMe:
If only that were the problem. The main challenge in insurance in Naija is the topline: Industry premiums are not growing fast enough compared to the market potential. People are just not insuring insurable risks. It's hard enough to compel car insurance, talk less of coverage for homes, businesses, life, and health.

So you will have all these companies with all these new shares demanding a return on investment, but the investment opportunities are just not there yet. Which rational investor would buy knowing that?

True.. Investors reap more from the Share premium contracts and there seem to be little opportunities.
Even the capitalisation is still poor.

But they have to start somewhere sha.
If litigations and claims are easily sorted out by parties happily, it reduces their perceived -ve image, Confidence might return to the sector gradually and previously reluctant companies might key in to premium contracts.

apart from capitalisation, The bill is also giving NAICOM stronger regulatory powers and control in the sector.

Though I agree we still have a long way to sway investors apathy.

Streetinvestor2:
At what price range is your chart showing accumulation
Though I expect it to hit 1k after 2024/q1 2025 results. I have afolabi units bought above #300

The accumulation is happening at the current price, although some people are buying below 610 intraday. That’s not the point; the key takeaway is that people willingly bought at this high price, with transactions totaling 2 billion naira, for a stock that averaged below 400 million naira monthly at lower prices in the past. My guess is that something significant is happening, assuming the premises in my earlier posts are valid.

Anyway, I’ve attached some charts. On each bar, there are three numbers: the value in naira for that period, the return during that period, and the last price of the period. One chart is for daily data, and the other is for monthly data.

ositadima1:
Some premises make developing markets like Nigeria interesting.

Volume Signals in This Context:
- When you see unusually high volume, it's less likely to be due to index rebalancing or options expiry

[b]If prices stay stable despite large volume, it could mean:
* A well-informed buyer is accumulating carefully
* Someone with [b]conviction about future developments is taking position
* Multiple informed parties might be active

- The limited number of major players means significant volume often [b]has more direct meaning
[/i]

Copied...

CHAMS comes to mind at the bolded.

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Tbh I’m inclined to agree with you. Like I’ve mentioned many times before I don’t sabi book too much so TA is far above my pay grade and even if I did, considering the way our market is structured I don’t think one can really use it here but volume is always a leading indicator.

When Wapco started its relay at 42 to 46 and I was asking why the sudden attention, people were telling me it was not sudden, that Wapco was undervalued but straight away I knew something was up and went to do investigation. There’s no smoke without fire. This was my spiritual analysis but I’m sure anyone looking at the volume chart would have seen unusual activity.

Streetinvestor2:
It is a big lie.what happened in FMN,ucap and about to happen in wapco did not show in any chart unless in the chart in spirit world.

Bagwa. Bovali. Awesomej

It's been a while.
Trust you're good...

Sunrisepebble:
Tbh I’m inclined to agree with you. Like I’ve mentioned many times before I don’t sabi book too much so TA is far above my pay grade and even if I did, considering the way our market is structured I don’t think one can really use it here but volume is always a leading indicator.

When Wapco started its relay at 42 to 46 and I was asking why the sudden attention, people were telling me it was not sudden, that Wapco was undervalued but straight away I knew something was up and went to do investigation. There’s no smoke without fire. This was my spiritual analysis but I’m sure anyone looking at the volume chart would have seen unusual activity.

The fact that you don't believe in something does not meant it doesn't work. People that have been using it since time immemorial testified to the fact that it works. Therefore, I don't see any reason trying to discountenance their strategy. Success in the stock market is not necessarily tied to a single strategy. As we always say here, keep to what works for you and respect the strategy that works for others too. Do have a nice trading day.