The odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth have surged, reaching a historic probability threshold that has raised concerns among scientists and global space agencies. According to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the asteroid now has a 1 in 32 (3.1%) chance of impact, a sharp increase from earlier predictions.

Initially discovered in December 2024, its impact probability was 1.2% (1 in 83) before doubling to[b] 2.3% on February 7[/b], then rising to 2.6% earlier this week, and now hitting its highest recorded figure. These odds make 2024 YR4 the most dangerous asteroid currently tracked, surpassing even the 2004 predictions for Apophis, which had a 2.7% chance of striking Earth before later calculations ruled it out.

“This is a historic milestone,” said Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) planetary defense office, though ESA estimates the probability slightly lower at 2.8%.

Lagos at Risk if Asteroid Strikes

Measuring between 131 and 295 feet in diameter, YR4 is large enough to generate an 8-megaton explosion, equivalent to 500 times the power of the Hiroshima atomic bomb.

Among the major cities in the asteroid’s projected trajectory is Lagos, Nigeria, one of the world’s most densely populated urban centers. With over 20 million residents, an impact on Lagos Island, Ikeja, or Victoria Island could result in catastrophic destruction, wiping out entire districts and severely affecting surrounding areas.

“If you put it over Lagos, the impact would devastate the city, destroying infrastructure and displacing millions,” warned Bruce Betts, chief scientist at the nonprofit Planetary Society.

No Immediate Cause for Panic—Yet

Despite the alarming statistics, scientists urge the public not to panic.

“I’m not panicking,” Betts stated, adding that while the increasing odds are unsettling, similar asteroid threats in the past have ultimately been ruled out. Moissl also reassured that YR4 is not a ‘planet killer’ but could pose a major threat to any city in its path.

Experts predict that the impact probability may continue to rise before eventually dropping to zero, as has been the case with many previously tracked asteroids.

To refine the risk assessment, NASA and the ESA will deploy the James Webb Space Telescope, using its infrared instruments to accurately measure the asteroid’s size and determine its exact trajectory.

The ESA confirmed that NASA, ESA, and other space agencies will analyze this data to assess the risk and prepare any necessary response measures.

Source: https://thebureau.com.ng/nasa-raises-alarm-over-city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-with-lagos-in-its-path/

Lagos

Time to move to South east for safety reasons

Lagos?! 500x Hiroshima?!!
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!

Oloun ni je!


But shebi they said Jupiter's gravity always avail for earth!!?

Delpee is viewing topic,what say ye?

delpee:
When is it projected to land? Prayerfully it lands on the sea.

Ahhhh no nahhh...we are sailors nahhh...see delpee o

Ok deep deep sea is ok

When is it projected to land? Prayerfully it lands on the sea.

God won't allow that happen to a city like lagos

Many PlayStation’s will be destroyed!

Even before I was born, they have been raising such false alarms almost every three months. Them just one trend.

Some people will rejoice over this news because Lagos has been mentioned. Una know una self...

It will never happen
Many of these kind of projections, yet none has materialized

Sha make una no go blast blast Lagos...

Then claim say na asteroid.

I don dey hear this kind of news since I dey my mama belle!

It's better to start building refugee camp in Zamfara or Borno state where Lagos Yoruba Muslims survivors would camp in advance.

We don't have to wait for the asteroid to destroy Lagos to ashes first, a stitch in time saves nine

Lol. Let the probability remain that low. We no fit stop am.

Lagos that tinubu built wit 2000 bags of cement?God forbid.

Dem wan start another wahala again

justmondris:
Even before I was born, they have been raising such false alarms almost every three months.

One day it won't be a false alarm

Why Lagos ?

This is alarming!

LIKE SEY BY THE TIME TPAIN FINISH WITH US KPATAKPATA ASTEROID GO STILL MEET PEOPLE FOR LAGOS TO KPAI

Nothing will happen. 3.1 percent chance is too small to be scared of. Everyone should ignore it and continue with their life.

LagosOrigin:
Lagos

Time to move to South east for safety reasons

And real owners of Lagos have no where to go.

Reason why they shouldn't tolerate shits from the arrogant ingrates!

Small thing like this na him you dey write like na na one big thing.

What's the size of that shit compared to the size of the entire state

Dey play!

They should let us rest abeg

It’s less than 2% chance of happening

And even if it’s coming, we trust all our pastors and imams to use prayers to divert it away from hitting us…
Make them rest

Quelme:
Some people will rejoice over this news because Lagos has been mentioned. Una know una self...

Ignorant and brainless ones will rejoice

Point of impact could be Lagos but the entire west Africa may be wiped out if it happens
And the entire world will be seriously impacted

Quelme:
Some people will rejoice over this news because Lagos has been mentioned. Una know una self...

You are either a child raping skull miner or an akpu munching gorilla. Please which are you? Because only people from these two stupid tribes talk this way

lastmessenger:
God won't allow that happen to a city like lagos

Just the comment I was looking for. Such a shame

Lagos keh?

No need to panic.

If at all, it will drop into the Atlantic ocean far from our shores.

Okay... Let me wait to hear what N.I.S.A has to say about this first.


For those wondering... NISA stands for Nigerian International Space Agency.

I like to assume such a body exists in Naija... We can't be Giant of Africa for nothing.

Bring it on. Ayelala will deal with it.