I believe that we need to start bracing ourselves for the possible re-election of Goodluck Jonathan as president again for another 4 years. Our consistent denials leave us grossly unprepared for what usually turns out as hugely corrupt and highly inefficient socio-political systems. Who really thinks that the APC will win? I think people who believe that miracles happen on a per second basis believe such. People who have good hearts but weak hands. Individuals and groups who wish Nigeria well but who unconsciously believe that changing Nigeria happens during sleep. Let's break this down.

1) The presidential elections will hold on the 14th of February 2015, (some 3 months away from today) but the only party with a presidential candidate remains the PDP - talk about early planning and early preparations. I learnt in secondary school that the earlier you started preparing for an examination, the higher the likelihood of excelling in that examination. I guess that this simple rule does not apply to the APC else why do they not know that they require longer periods of time to gain real political acceptance with the electorate beyond the media hypes which appeal to just a fraction of the educated. The APC will hopefully get a candidate when it is 3 months to a general election and hope to win in a nation of multiple interests as Nigeria? There goes my first reason.

2) When you have a strong contestant for a position, you do double of what he or she is doing to outsmart him/her. The PDP currently enjoys the power of incumbency (which has proven an exclusive ingredient for re-election as president in Nigeria) while the APC basically has some states and goodwill to counter the PDP. They have however failed to present to Nigerians, an ideology that ties our perception of them beyond "oposition". There is no communicated philosophy beyond the "progressives" tag which I bet 70% of their voters have no idea or clues per what that word means. The APC has failed to throw a concept or support ideation that is appealing beyond "removing Goodluck". This situation unchanged, can never remove PDP from Aso Rock.

3) Unfortunately in this electoral period and dispensation, money still counts. Bloggers will be bribed and writers will be compromised on account of favours. Instead of the APC engaging in citizen education - the deliberate re-orientaion of society's social values and a re-caliberation of the measures of political worth, they have pursued winning PDP Governors and folks with vigour that should have been expended on changing the psyche of Nigerians from cheap money politics to enduring political realizations. As usual, from now to February 2015, billions of Naira will flow to many community youth leaders, opinion leaders, traditional rulers, local government thugs and millions of people who will never read this post. They will receive PDP money (which the APC cannot match) and turn awaytheir eyes to the rigging that the police and electoral officers would effect. Villages and remote wards will all be cleared by the PDP whether the PDP admit it or not. We must however remember that rigging is only facilitated too where there is a minimal level of acceptance for the rigger. And we all agree, the PDP is a very POPULAR PARTY.

4) The PDP will take advantage of Nigerians collective Amnesia. We are very forgetful people and with more talk than work. If the PDP decides to power homes with electricity from next month to January 2014, majority of Nigerians in the celebration of the mood will normally forget that they suffered lack of electricity for 75% of the earlier 4 years. The APC however does not yet know how to engage in respectable propaganda. They go so critical of the PDP that Nigerians already have mental assumptions of what their positions are on any issue thereby paying little or no attention to the real issues when they are being raised. They should have learnt to genuinely praise GEJ on some occasions to retain interest in their usual critical submissions such that when they articulate positions of a failed national infrastructure such as electricity, we can tune ourselves better to what that is and be thus guided when casting votes.

5) The PDP has won the defection game. While the media was awash with news of defections a year ago in favour of the APC,the PDP has silently won more prominent politicians into their fold from not just the APC but from APGA, the Labour Party, and the Accord Party. The APC won 2nd Term governors (apart from Kwara State) from the PDP but Rivers State State and Adamawa remain PDP strongholds. In a match of political capacity and action, the PDP, by a far stretch has proven a better political chess player.

6) Goodluck Jonathan will likely remain lucky regardless of who the political supporters of Boko Haram are. If it is indeed his government and his friends sponsoring Boko Haram, then their plot to weaken the political stronghold of the APC (North Eastern Nigeria ) will see them taking advantage of political apathy in that part of the country to clinch electoral victory. On the other hand, if Boko Haram is sponsored by external parties, the government will still continue to engage in fear tactics that cripple that political economy while engaging in reconstruction works that end up as political and economic favours to the powers that be in that region. Either ways, PDP have the manipulative advantage.

7) Signals on the APC wall indicate that either Atiku Abubakar or Mohammed Buhari will emerge presidential candidate of the APC. This reality is one of the best guarantees for a Goodluck Jonathan re-election. Atiku Abubakar, ever since he failed to win Goodluck Jonathan within the PDP during the contest for the primaries about 4 years ago lost my respect. I thought that he was a heavier political juggernaut but incumbency is is an albatross in these climes. The same factors subsist so Atiku will never win Goodluck Jonathan because his strength really lies in the PDP and not in the APC. He cannot win the South East, the South South, the North Central or the North West with PDP roaming those locations viciously with power and money. Buhari has also lost to Goodluck Jonathan marking 3 losses at the presidential election. What has changed since his losses? The system? No. The voters? No. INEC? No. The Police? No. The Military? No. If all factors of 2011 remain same, expect a Goodluck Jonathan victory, again.

Only the likes of Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai, Babatunde Fashola and possibly an Oshiomole spun within a presidential ticket can spark fresh interest.

I am W.T.A, and these subjective views remain mine with no recourse to any political interest.

I know this thread will be hot, make I go carry my gen and AC

OP, one other major reason is that, APC's two top contenders Atiku and Buhari can never beat Jonathan.

You are wise

Even a mad man on the street knows Gej will win next year. I pity some Apc folks who are dreaming of claiming power frm jona.

Noted

Obiagelli:

Exactly, only mad people know gej will win.

Is that your own interpretation?
No wonder you failed English Language in secondary school

I dont blame nigerians like yu unaaa like to suffer under pretense fela sang a song suffering and smiling

Ever since the subsidy tyme Nigerians have been financially emotionally down and we haven't be progressive

Do yu realise we are in a fucking recession in this country like the pple of the country are broke naira to dollar is rising every week the naira is g3tting powerless the middle class is barely surving and yu are talking about 7 reasons why we should suffer for 4years


are yu not a Nigerian youth didnt yu see how jona and his friends scammed naija youth during the customs immigration ish and collected 1k from errbodi for election money and pple di3d yu must be bleeped if yu didnt hear of it stupid foool

even corruption gan he is acting like a foool



welll here is my take if he cant bring back the girls back forget about election mate if he try it he should prepare for revolution incompetent bastard of a thousand fathers God punish yu foolish op


for me my vote is for apc and I will plead wif Nigerian

@op, u have mistakenly replaced your God given brains with soap. . .so, whu brain-washed you na?

Only mad people knows that gej will win cos only mad ppl can vote for such a wimp!

Bitter truth.
Nigeria's political system is not just mature enough to beat a sitting president.
Eventhough, I detest GEJ's leadership with great passion, I have to admit that he is the man to beat.
Only God can save us from that clueless and rudderless Ebola, sorry Ebele Jonathan.

Firstly, I am yet to see any structure or person to dislodge GEJ come 2015

Secondly, Nigeria is not prepared to handle the impact of dislodging GEJ from Asorock in 2015. We cannot afford two simultaneous unrest both north and south.

GEJ till 2019

Nicely scripted by an objective mind. Our collective amnesia will be so evident that GEJ is already on auto cruise to return.i have passed the age of personal deception.

Among other things that guaranty victory in Nigeria politics....the youth and women wing of any political party is a big factor. With no particular interest in any party, I wish to ask, where is the women wing of APC? Where is their youth wing? PDP has an almost perfect structure in these two stratas of our population with madagascar money available to fund them.

Since coming to office, what has the APC youth leader done to win the hearts of the youth seeing that the task ahead is enormous.

APC must wake up from slumber because thunder will fire the entire generation of anybody that will instigate post election violence after loosing.

For those of you who are basking in the popularity of APC on social media, wake up. Its market women and artisans that vote and they are not on social media.

My two penny.

Nice and very objective write up. I don't support PDP because they have failed Nigerians since 1999. But PDP still remain the party to beat. Everybody knows GEJ will win the elections if Atiku and Buhari is allowed to represent APC. The only hope for APC to win the election is for them to field popular candidates like Oshiomole or Fashola. Buhari and Atiku has had their chances and both lost woefully. Why would any party even consider them as their presidental candidates. I want another party to rule Nigeria in 2015 but if APC makes the mistake of fielding Atiku or Buhari as their presidental candidates then they should forget the 2015 elections because GEJ will win both of them.

Mods what do you think? Sorry it's not a who-wore-it-better/bikini thread but....please do the needful.

Built2last:
Nicely scripted by an objective mind. Our collective amnesia will be so evident that GEJ is already on auto cruise to return.i have passed the age of personal deception.

Among other things that guaranty victory in Nigeria politics....the youth and women wing of any political party is a big factor. With no particular interest in any party, I wish to ask, where is the women wing of APC? Where is their youth wing? PDP has an almost perfect structure in these two stratas of our population with madagascar money available to fund them.

Since coming to office, what has the APC youth leader done to win the hearts of the youth seeing that the task ahead is enormous.

APC must wake up from slumber because thunder will fire the entire generation of anybody that will instigate post election violence after loosing.

For those of you who are basking in the popularity of APC on social media, wake up. Its market women and artisans that vote and they are not on social media.

My two penny.

The APC youth leader is working on his age mates

Unfortunately because the youth leader is already old. APC as a party have forgot the youth!

The janja weeds!! I miss Mr labaran maku, him and olisa metu always have the right replies for the Islamic rascals... Enjoy the fresh air. GEJ till 2019

lionduke:
The janja weeds!! I miss Mr labaran maku, him and olisa metu always have the right replies for the Islamic rascals... Enjoy the fresh air. GEJ till 2019

I thought I was the only one who liked Labaran Maku!!!!

He was a very good information minister

Mod, please do the needful.

Till then!

Many of these gej asslickers can't even comprehend a simple piece as like the op.
It painted PDP in bad light and phools have started singing victory songs. over what? over blatant irregularities?
The summary of this piece is that gej would win the election on false grounds. insurgency would be an advantage as the writer mentioned could be fg sponsored. Stomach infrastructure and use of thugs which by now every Nigerian knows is PDP's area of specialty. There would be massive rigging. In all, PDP's victory would come as a result of gross ignorance and forgetful nature of Nigerians .
The only chance the APC has, is to field a candidate who would be loved unanimously and for now, they have only two, namely; fashola and oshomole. Buhari should be like a father and give moral support to either of them. As for Atiku, he has no positive role to play in APC .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80XWguqnVCk

[size=15pt]Jonathan is worst Nigerian leader ever -- Sowore, Publisher, Sahara Reporters[/size]

Omoyele Sowore praises abacha for securing Nigeria but goes on to suggest that the reason Boko Haram escalated is because of extra judicial killings!

Please how many people did Abacha take to courts?

Did Abacha not secure this country with brutality and fear?

Ken Sarowiwa who was an environmentalist campaigner was executed after a kangaroo military tribunal!

Guy has no clue what he is on about!

mikeansy:
Omoyele Sowore praises abacha for securing Nigeria but goes on to suggest that the reason Boko Haram escalated is because of extra judicial killings!

Please how many people did Abacha take to courts?

Did Abacha not secure this country with brutality and fear?

Ken Sarowiwa who was an environmentalist campaigner was executed after a kangaroo military tribunal!

Guy has no clue what he is on about!

Sowore is not praising Abacha. He is trying to say Abacha presidency is considered as the worse presidency in Nigeria history by most people but In terms of security, Abacha presidency was better. People were safe during Abacha presidency and bomb blast and religious and tribal violence was unheard off. Abacha would have deal with the boko haram terrorism better.

I will comment when I see it on Fp

Very well analysized

OP, you are very intelligent just like me. Good piece of write-up.
The real election is on Nigerialand not on Nairaland.
APC is unprepared for the real election. They are very confused.

Bro GEJ till 2019 haters can only jump inside river or relocate to chad or Ghana
Nobody will unsit GEJ he will be our president till 2019