barcanista:
Politics is about interest. [size=15pt]I would have been the Chief Campaigner of Jonathan if his policies protect the interest of the Ijaw people[/size]

This has got to be a joke, expecting Hausa Buhari to have the interest of Ijaws more than Ijaw president Jonathan. Which stratosphere does bacanista live in?

BlackTechnology:



Do you know how many non indigenes that exist in the North and West


Son


There are in millions

In the end, it's the indigent population that decides the pattern of votes. That's Nigerian politics.

@OP, I agree with you. When I checked previous elections' results, I was so surprised that the votes the great Ikemba of Nnewi had during his time was equal to the total number of vote cast during the last senatorial election in Edo North. That means even those guys who croon his name daily on Nairaland, never voted Ikemba, but decided to voted people from otherr region. What I'm trynna say in essence is that if the highly respected/placed Ojukwu's vote during his time, was not up to Edo North's total vote during the last senatorial election, how are we sure Rochas, who they consider as a Betrayal, would garner up to 100,000 votes for APC if he's the VP Candidate?!

As for the person I would personally like APC to field, I think any strong politician who's loved by his people from the SW should be considered, provided he's salable to the average SSner. I think Fashola should be the person. I certainly believe that Oshiomole would support whoever emerges APC VP Candidate from the SW.

Lest I forget, Senate Presidency should be zoned to the SS if APC takes the majority of the Senate. The Senator representing my zone is good to go, Magnus abe is also good to go. Let's teach PDP how Democracy is being run!

onyengbu:

This APC's north sef, does it include the middle belt?

Yes, PDP can only win Kogi, Plateau and Benue!

Muslim/muslim ticket in Nigeria today is a political suicide of highest order. You asked what has changed since 1993? Let me tell you, religious riots and boko haram has happened and over 50,000 lives has been lost. Thats what has changed.
I just de pity una. PDP will be someplace wishing you are APC strategist.

Only PDP believes Nigerians are bigots. As much as I know, many Christians are ready to vote for the devil instead of Jonathan. You just watch out!

tit:
Barcanista,
you conveniently analyzed 2007 twice and forgot all about 2011.
Well, i shall do the honor.
Buhari tried your gambit: A Yoruba vice-presidential candidate and he failed woefully in the SW.
Gbadamasi Buhari chose Tunde Bakare as his running mate to rapturous applause from the likes of you.
Even the litte known Ribadu even got some votes than Buhari in the SW.
What does this tell us?
That Buhari is very unpopular outside his core constituency.

Even the NURTW and market women of the SW solidly reject having a murderer (the extra-judical execution of a bartholomew Owoh and co),
a thief (millions missing from NNPC in 1978
and a liar (Abacha did not steal)
as president!
And so shall it be in 2015!

Guess who ripped off Abacha's son of all the charges he was up against... If Abacha himself was alive today, he'd be GEJ's right hand man

If ameachi isn't the vp,I am sorry 4 APC. It is finished for pdp.

I had this same discussion with an APC guy at O'Hare yesterday, it's like no one apart from the leaders knows the permutation APC is going to use.

Pick the most popular candidates from your strong areas

North Buhari

West Fashola

In 2003, Tinubu, Bisi Akande and co campaigned vigorously for Obj based only on the fact that he was a Yoruba man against Gen Buhari. Their major campaign slogan was " omo wa ni. yio wole lekan si" meaning he's our son and he will win again. my question is Barcanista why didn't you start this your crusade against the Yorubas? so yorubas can choose their own candidate and the igbos shouldn't?

barcanista:
We all know the PDP Nightmare. It is gameover for them

jonathan vote is a done deal in the south east:anambra 95percent,ebonyi 95-100per,abia 90per,enugu 95per.rochas might suceed in getting 50per in imo.them come to south-south delta 95 to 100,bayelsa 90 to 95 just becos of the ijaw people,akwa ibom 95 to 100,rivers 70 to 80 just a minute interference by amaechi,edo only few yoruba might hinder gej vote so i give gej not above 70per and finally cross river 100percent.these are domain i have transverse in these country.south west region are unprecdictable.

geophyscist:
jonathan vote is a done deal in the south east:anambra 95percent,ebonyi 95-100per,abia 90per,enugu 95per.rochas might suceed in getting 50per in imo.them come to south-south delta 95 to 100,bayelsa 90 to 95 just becos of the ijaw people,akwa ibom 95 to 100,rivers 70 to 80 just a minute interference by amaechi,edo only few yoruba might hinder gej vote so i give gej not above 70per and finally cross river 100percent.these are domain i have transverse in these country.south west region are unprecdictable.

if rochas gets 10% 5% vote in Imo state, i shall declare free fxxk!

barcanista:
APP 2003:
General Buhari entry in the Presidential race in 2003 caused so much panic IN Obasanjo and PDP camp. Reason is that the PDP was relatively unpopular in the SW in 1999 and the North Was won by PDP due to the PDM machinery of Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Buhari's entry snatched away the Northern Luxury leaving the SW to the open. If there was any region PDP dread most, it was/is the South West.

Rather than field a Popular South Westerner as VP like Mr Olu Falae who would have brought lots of Yoruba votes to the ticket, they instead decided on Senator Chuba Okadigbo, who couldn't even win his ward in the said poll. PDP won the SW coupled with SE and SS votes and was declared victors.

AC/ANPP 2007
AC 2007:
Atiku Abubakar was the AC Candidate and incumbent Vice President. The Niger-Delta hostility was at its peak. PDP was smart to pick a VP candidate from the Ijaw Region but was "not too smart" to pick a relatively unpopular and failure Goodluck Jonathan who would have lost his governorship seat(if he had contested). AC should have made the smart move by picking a popular SSner as their VP Candidate, like Adams Oshiomole who made name for himself as Labour Union Boss. The AC also enjoyed sympathy from the SW and SS states of Rivers, Edo, and Delta as at then, Oshiomole had the goodwill as man of the people. But AC fielded Senator Ben Obi, who couldn't deliver his polling unit(He's is Jonathan's Adviser at Present).

ANPP 2007:
GMB enjoyed cult following in the North, he needs a part of the South. His bet bet would have been the South West as at then. It may look funny but the Yorubas have always been voting enmasse for a ticket involving their son. Take the Bull by the horn, field a Gani Fawehinmi as running-mate, he was very popular across the Niger too. With ANPP political machinery then and Gani's credibility, the SW votes will be smiling at them plus a chunk of the SS. But instead ANPP settled for Ume-Ezeoke (to pacify the SE) but shamefully, Ume Ezeoke not only lost his village, he also led the group that betrayed Buhari at the tribunal and also joined PDP's Yar adua's government.

APC 2015:
APC should field a popular South Westerner as Vice to General Buhari, like Engr. Rauf Aregbesola(loved by his people and the Yorubas) or Mr. Raji Fashola(Loved by the Yoruba intellectuals, elite and seen as a pacesetter).
If they must go beyoud South West, then I support the Candidacy of Mr. Rotimi Amaechi, Considering his relative popularity in the SW and also Ikwerre votes in Rivers State. His candidacy will help split the Rivers vote(which is the Highest in the SS). Another option is Mr. Adams Oshiomole. He may not give 100% of Edo Votes but with the backing of Oba Erediawa plus his incumbency, he will deliver majority Edo votes(may not be super majority).

Why skip 2011 when Tunde Bakare a south westerner was his running mate and he still lost woefully to Jonathan in south west?

South west is surly in APC so Fashola should go for senate president while buhari/ Rochas, if U put Rochas the Igbos are going to vote massively because it is what they are asking for if not GEJ will win but on a serious note most Igbos thinks they are thinking why they are not

[quote author=barcanista post=27225875]The SE has always been voting incumbents even against their Son, unlike the North and SW

---------------------------------------------------------

Another hollow submission that suggests that the OP thinks politics in Nigeria started in 1999.
Sure, he does not know of NCNC/UPGA in the 1960s, NPP in the 1980s and even in the early 1990s when Iwuanyanwu and Nzeribe cleared the SDP and NRC votes respectively in the SE before IBB cancelled the primaries and came up with the Option A4.


The OP will be the first to label the SE sentimental and tribalistic, but based on his warped argument on voting pattern he has unconsciously shown those who are parochial, narrow-minded and insular.

CharliParker:
South west is surly in APC so Fashola should go for senate president while buhari/ Rochas, if U put Rochas the Igbos are going to vote massively because it is what they are asking for if not GEJ will win but on a serious note most Igbos thinks they are thinking why they are not

Any Ibo on any ticket in Nigeria is a waste, APC should NEVER put ibo on their ticket! Forget sentiments, glaring facts show that Ojukwu the ibo god got less than 3% of votes in 2003 failing shamelessly in Iboland. Ume-Ezeoke the betrayer and traitor that was the first to snap at the opportunity when ANPP failed to win in 2007. I can go on, APC should understand that their brightest chance if winning is to follow the numbers: the North and SW are the clear majority (in native population) in Nigeria. Buhari already has 12 M+ in the north and most Yorubas will NEVER pick a failure or mediocre even if he is their brother over a performant go-getter that inspires them, regardless of religion!

How has Muslim-Christian (Yaradua-GEJ) or Christian-Muslim (GEJ-Sambo) changed the economic fortunes of Nigeria and improve the lot of the average Nigerian? Religion does not solve economic issues and most Yorubas have their own families of almost every religious persuasion! However the APC must continually harp on this important fact because PDP is jittery and rather than to is on how to explain their failure for the past 16 years, they have payed people like tit, Descartes, phockman, chino, and most ibos to keep muddying the waters with trash talk.

With APC fielding Buhari and Fashola, they have the number majority but also the strongest ticket in recent times, a proven and incorruptible leader Buhari who can and who has the integrity to fix Nigeria's shameful corruption problem and an energetic, forward looking Fashola, a super-brilliant and competent administrator and technocrat. GEJ and his absent deputy are corruption personified and protectors of corrupt people, they are neither competent nor technocrats but the people who have preserved the status quo of the backward cycle of the country.

However, the APC have their work cut out for them in the MB, SS and Imo State to directly speak to the people and have a meta get out the vote operation. People need hope and someone to inspire them and APC has a chance to do that and get the moderates and educated ones to look at the facts of their current economic situation for the past 16 years and try a different approach, a different team, a different government, not the failure of PDP they have tried for the last 16 years.

I conclude by emphasizing that any ibo man will never bring anything to any political ticket in Nigeria that crosses outside of Iboland. Ibos are insular, short-sighted and narrow minded people who will cut off their nose to spite their own face, thinking it changes the outcome of the 1967 - 1970 war they lost - it changes nothing really. The MB and SS and Imolites are more rational and open to new ideas and people, perhaps less tribalistic as the excluded ibo areas who are either too tribalistic or too poor to look up from their grinding poverty (Anambra - Ebonyi). It is up to Nigerians to rescue themselves from this useless PDP, God or any other country will not come to your rescue.

Omimah:

I don't support APC VP slot going to the South West. The continued membership of Fashola, Aregbesola, Tinubu, Akande, etc and the feat they achieved in that part of the country are enough for Yoruba people, believed to be sophisticated, to vote for APC. I will rather have the APC give the VP slot to the South South, Amaechi in particular. This will help in breaking the votes of Jonathan in the South South, his strongesthold.

Amaechi has no electoral value in the. South South.

He is not even in control of Ikwerreland:there is a Nyesom Wike and the likes of Celestine Omehia still not spare a thought to humiliate the cantankerous Amaechi.

In all probability, Jonathan will not score below 90% of Rivers vote.

Oshiomole is a closet Jonathan apologist.

In the final analysis, Jonathan will get, at least, 95% of votes in Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Delta and Bayelsa while posting about 85% and 90% in Edo and Rivers States respectively.

maestroferddi:
Amaechi has no electoral value in the. South South.

He is not even in control of Ikwerreland:there is a Nyesom Wike and the likes of Celestine Omehia still not spare a thought to humiliate the cantankerous Amaechi.

In all probability, Jonathan will not score below 90% of Rivers vote.

Oshiomole is a closet Jonathan apologist.

In the final analysis, Jonathan will get, at least, 95% of votes in Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Delta and Bayelsa while posting about 85% and 90% in Edo and Rivers States respectively.

A very ignorant submission. Who is Wike? Who is Omehia in Ikwerreland? You obviously do not know Rivers State anyway neither do you understand the Rivers Politics

barcanista:
A very ignorant submission. Who is Wike? Who is Omehia in Ikwerreland? You obviously do not know Rivers State anyway neither do you understand the Rivers Politics

The fear of Wike is the beginning of wisdom for Amaechi in Rivers state.

It is not about noisemaking. Rivers is a PDP state. You guys should keep deluding yourselves. At the opportune time, you will learn the hard way.

maestroferddi:
The fear of Wike is the beginning of wisdom for Amaechi in Rivers state.

It is not about noisemaking. Rivers is a PDP state. You guys should keep deluding yourselves. At the opportune time, you will learn the hard way.

Wike is not synonymous with PDP and the PDP hold of Rivers is on its brink. Wike is not feared by anyone, he is only a tool in the hands of PEJ. He is now useless to Amaechi's cause just like Mbu

geophyscist:
jonathan vote is a done deal in the south east:anambra 95percent,ebonyi 95-100per,abia 90per,enugu 95per.rochas might suceed in getting 50per in imo.them come to south-south delta 95 to 100,bayelsa 90 to 95 just becos of the ijaw people,akwa ibom 95 to 100,rivers 70 to 80 just a minute interference by amaechi,edo only few yoruba might hinder gej vote so i give gej not above 70per and finally cross river 100percent.these are domain i have transverse in these country.south west region are unprecdictable.

Yoruba are not unpredictable don't be deceive
Lagos 80%
Ogun 60%
Ondo 70%
Oyo 50%
Ekiti 80%
Osun 25%
Forget about nairaland voting pattern and Internet jibes

barcanista:
APP 2003:
General Buhari entry in the Presidential race in 2003 caused so much panic IN Obasanjo and PDP camp. Reason is that the PDP was relatively unpopular in the SW in 1999 and the North Was won by PDP due to the PDM machinery of Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Buhari's entry snatched away the Northern Luxury leaving the SW to the open. If there was any region PDP dread most, it was/is the South West.

Rather than field a Popular South Westerner as VP like Mr Olu Falae who would have brought lots of Yoruba votes to the ticket, they instead decided on Senator Chuba Okadigbo, who couldn't even win his ward in the said poll. PDP won the SW coupled with SE and SS votes and was declared victors.

AC/ANPP 2007
AC 2007:
Atiku Abubakar was the AC Candidate and incumbent Vice President. The Niger-Delta hostility was at its peak. PDP was smart to pick a VP candidate from the Ijaw Region but was "not too smart" to pick a relatively unpopular and failure Goodluck Jonathan who would have lost his governorship seat(if he had contested). AC should have made the smart move by picking a popular SSner as their VP Candidate, like Adams Oshiomole who made name for himself as Labour Union Boss. The AC also enjoyed sympathy from the SW and SS states of Rivers, Edo, and Delta as at then, Oshiomole had the goodwill as man of the people. But AC fielded Senator Ben Obi, who couldn't deliver his polling unit(He's is Jonathan's Adviser at Present).

ANPP 2007:
GMB enjoyed cult following in the North, he needs a part of the South. His bet bet would have been the South West as at then. It may look funny but the Yorubas have always been voting enmasse for a ticket involving their son. Take the Bull by the horn, field a Gani Fawehinmi as running-mate, he was very popular across the Niger too. With ANPP political machinery then and Gani's credibility, the SW votes will be smiling at them plus a chunk of the SS. But instead ANPP settled for Ume-Ezeoke (to pacify the SE) but shamefully, Ume Ezeoke not only lost his village, he also led the group that betrayed Buhari at the tribunal and also joined PDP's Yar adua's government.

APC 2015:
APC should field a popular South Westerner as Vice to General Buhari, like Engr. Rauf Aregbesola(loved by his people and the Yorubas) or Mr. Raji Fashola(Loved by the Yoruba intellectuals, elite and seen as a pacesetter).
If they must go beyoud South West, then I support the Candidacy of Mr. Rotimi Amaechi, Considering his relative popularity in the SW and also Ikwerre votes in Rivers State. His candidacy will help split the Rivers vote(which is the Highest in the SS). Another option is Mr. Adams Oshiomole. He may not give 100% of Edo Votes but with the backing of Oba Erediawa plus his incumbency, he will deliver majority Edo votes(may not be super majority).

You seem to be suffering from selective amnesia. Why did you not analyse CPC 2011?

Abi na tactical maneuver you do?

Sunnybobo3:


You seem to be suffering from selective amnesia. Why did you not analyse CPC 2011?

Abi name tactical maneuver you do?

Bakare isn't a politician, CPC was NEW, ACN was sweeping the guber level of SW and the ACN didn't support the candidacy of CPC, as they also contested for the Presidential seat to remain relevant in National Politics, they wouldn't want to make the blunder of AD. Hence, their choice for Ribadu and Adeola. Another factor was that the CPC wasn't popular and had no political structure in SW in 2011.

barcanista:
Bakare isn't a politician, CPC was NEW, ACN was sweeping the guber level of SW and the ACN didn't support the candidacy of CPC, as they also contested for the Presidential seat to remain relevant in National Politics, they wouldn't want to make the blunder of AD. Hence, their choice for Ribadu and Adeola. Another factor was that the CPC wasn't popular and had no political structure in SW in 2011.

Why did you not analyse it in your original post if you weren't being mischievous?

Abi you wan spread hate?

Sunnybobo3:


Why did you not analyse it in your original post if you weren't being mischievous?

Abi you wan spread hate?

What do I gain by spreading hate? You will vote GEJ abi, so why are you Jonathanians so interested here?

barcanista:
Thank You. But sadly, Falae is in DPA, he is the DPA Chairman. I am sure he will agree to fly the VP ticket of APC if approached. But the APC have Aregbesola and Raji Fashola to work with if they must pick from SW[b](Though I prefer Aregbe[/b])

Please forget about Aregbe as an option. Buhari/Aregbe does not have half the weight of Buhari/Fashola.

These combinations should be pursued by APC:

1. Buhari/Fashola - Even though a Muslim/Muslim ticket, it surely has the qualities of performance and integrity to gain considerable widespread acceptance in the North and SW.


2. Buhari/Oshiomole - Osiomole will deliver a very good number of votes from Edo/SW and and around 30% of the SS votes. Add to the fact that Buhari will win in most of the norther states, victory could be assured.

3. Buhari/Amaechi - Amaechi can deliver only a considerable number of votes in the SS region but surely not enough to make PDP lose sleep. In that case PDP will also have an edge in the SW except some very serious positions are promised the SW in their government and Fashola and Tinubu work tirelessly there. Even at that, PDP will still be favoured to win.

4. Buhari + anyone from SE - This should be a no-go area for APC this time around.

Omimah:
I have no problem in Buhari picking Okorocha or any South Easterner as his Running Mate, but politics being a game of number will make him advise him and APC not to. The South East is bent on voting for Jonathan of PDP. This ordinarilly makes the VP slot worthless, because the sloth itself is supposed to bring more votes from the geo-political zone.

Correct.

Ibo man shld not b on apc ticket. Even if u field apostle paul or one of their ancestral brothers frm isreal, tribalism wont let them see anything good in apc not to talk of voting a candidate on the platform.
Barcanista, my $20billion on this.

barcanista:
What do I gain by spreading hate? You will vote GEJ abi, so why are you Jonathanians so interested here?

Who ill vote is irrelevant here. My logomachy is that you keep analysis fair and devoid of bigotry without withholding any material fact.....

Shalom!

Caseless:
Ibo man shld not b on apc ticket. Even if u field apostle paul or one of their ancestral brothers frm isreal, tribalism wont let them see anything good in apc not to talk of voting a candidate on the platform.
Barcanista, my $20billion on this.

Do you understand the meaning of tribalism? Why not try presenting an Igbo man as APC presidential candidate and let's see the nationalistic character of the South Westerners and Northerners in their voting pattern.

Sunnybobo3:


Do you understand the meaning of tribalism? Why not try presenting an Igbo man as APC presidential candidate and let's see the nationalistic character of the South Westerners and Northerners.

what did igbo ppl do when their 'messiah' (ojukwu) contested on an igbo party?

Sloan:


Any Ibo on any ticket in Nigeria is a waste, APC should NEVER put ibo on their ticket! Forget sentiments, glaring facts show that Ojukwu the ibo god got less than 3% of votes in 2003 failing shamelessly in Iboland. Ume-Ezeoke the betrayer and traitor that was the first to snap at the opportunity when ANPP failed to win in 2007. I can go on, APC should understand that their brightest chance if winning is to follow the numbers: the North and SW are the clear majority (in native population) in Nigeria. Buhari already has 12 M+ in the north and most Yorubas will NEVER pick a failure or mediocre even if he is their brother over a performant go-getter that inspires them, regardless of religion!

How has Muslim-Christian (Yaradua-GEJ) or Christian-Muslim (GEJ-Sambo) changed the economic fortunes of Nigeria and improve the lot of the average Nigerian? Religion does not solve economic issues and most Yorubas have their own families of almost every religious persuasion! However the APC must continually harp on this important fact because PDP is jittery and rather than to is on how to explain their failure for the past 16 years, they have payed people like tit, Descartes, phockman, chino, and most ibos to keep muddying the waters with trash talk.

With APC fielding Buhari and Fashola, they have the number majority but also the strongest ticket in recent times, a proven and incorruptible leader Buhari who can and who has the integrity to fix Nigeria's shameful corruption problem and an energetic, forward looking Fashola, a super-brilliant and competent administrator and technocrat. GEJ and his absent deputy are corruption personified and protectors of corrupt people, they are neither competent nor technocrats but the people who have preserved the status quo of the backward cycle of the country.

However, the APC have their work cut out for them in the MB, SS and Imo State to directly speak to the people and have a meta get out the vote operation. People need hope and someone to inspire them and APC has a chance to do that and get the moderates and educated ones to look at the facts of their current economic situation for the past 16 years and try a different approach, a different team, a different government, not the failure of PDP they have tried for the last 16 years.

I conclude by emphasizing that any ibo man will never bring anything to any political ticket in Nigeria that crosses outside of Iboland. Ibos are insular, short-sighted and narrow minded people who will cut off their nose to spite their own face, thinking it changes the outcome of the 1967 - 1970 war they lost - it changes nothing really. The MB and SS and Imolites are more rational and open to new ideas and people, perhaps less tribalistic as the excluded ibo areas who are either too tribalistic or too poor to look up from their grinding poverty (Anambra - Ebonyi). It is up to Nigerians to rescue themselves from this useless PDP, God or any other country will not come to your rescue.

You seem to be hurting so much.