Of course the election came as usual and Dr Goodluck
Ebele Jonathan trounced Buhari mercilessly. But most
of us got so carried away that we failed to appreciate
how well the man had performed against all odds. Here
was a man without loads of cash. He didn’t have a
preponderance of powerful Governors behind him. He
could not mobilise so many billionaires to fund him. He
lacked the power of incumbency. He could not secure the
much needed coalition with ACN at the time. Many
Christians saw him as Satan on earth. Many youths
considered him too old. The super-rich saw him as the
sword of Damocles dangling over them. All the odds
were stacked up against him. Yet this poor man, as I
like to describe him, recorded a whopping 12,214,853
votes while President Jonathan scored 22,495,187 votes.




Let’s break it down into simple Maths. Jonathan had a
good spread scoring 25% or more in 31 States. Buhari
managed to score 25% or more in 16 States and yet got
a cumulative result of over 12 million votes. A good
Mathematician should be able to help us here because I
wish to show our President’s handlers that they will
pay heavily for complacency if they assume and take it
for granted that they can beat Buhari easily like PDP
had always done in the past. Let me explain it further.



A man who won the mandatory 25% in about half of the
States secured by the President still went ahead to poll
over half of what the President got. Now this is the
trickery part.




Let me begin with the most obvious. Buhari had only
37.96% in Adamawa while Jonathan had 56%. The
registered voters were 1,816,094 but the voter-turnout
was a miserable 49.98%. With the way the country is
right now, PDP would require a miracle to win
Adamawa with a landslide. If Buhari secures the APC
ticket, it is almost certain that he would clean up that
State. And in case the voters turn out much bigger, it
means that State can wipe off some of the deficits
Buhari suffered in 2011. The two leading parties can
still jerk up about one million extras which won’t be a
bad idea even if PDP still gets 25% or more.



Let’s walk across to another interesting State, Bauchi
where Buhari recorded 1,315,209 against Jonathan’s
258,404 despite the avuncular presence of PDP
Governor, Yisa Yuguda. The registered voters here
were 2,523,614 but only 1,610,094 voters chose to vote
with nearly 1,000,000 voters hibernating somewhere. I
hope you’re patient enough to follow this Maths lesson.
Benue would certainly be a major battle ground this
time for the candidates because the State has over 1.3
million voters (out of a total registration of 2,390,884)
buried somewhere for the strongest candidate to
resurrect. Here ethnicity and religion would play
critical roles more than ever before. It is presently a
virtual PDP State with Jonathan polling 694,776
against Buhari’s 109,680 and ACN (Nuhu Ribadu)
223,007. Benue had always been a State of
enlightened voters and it may swing in favour of a
serious candidate.



Let’s keep moving and find somewhere to land in the
troubled spot of Borno State. This is a treasure ground
with 2,380,957 out of which more than half of the voters
have absconded and vanished into thin air. In 2011,
Buhari 909,763 against the President’s humble 207,075
votes. Now this State is under fire but is NOW largely
controlled by the new alliance known as APC.



Let’s saunter across to Gombe where Buhari scored
459,898 against Jonathan’s 290,347 votes out of a
total registration of 1,318,377. All the parties combined
recorded 770,019 voters. The implication of this is that
if this State decides to be generous, it may dash out
about 548,358 votes. We are still moving and
scavenging for the votes wherever they are hiding.
Let’s say some quick Hello to our Brother, Governor of
Jigawa State, Sule Lamido, who couldn’t hold Buhari
down despite his equally tall physique. Here Buhari
polled 663,994 against Jonathan’s 419,252. Total votes
cast came to 1,140,766 out of 2,013,974 total
registrations. Do not say I told you, this State has
some 873,208 unseen registered voters probably
perambulating as we write. This journey is still long
and arduous.

Kaduna is a major war zone for the candidates
because of its peculiar characteristics. Buhari’s
supremacy was hotly challenged as Jonathan polled
1,190,179 against Buhari’s 1,334,244 votes . Total
votes cast were 2,569,963 out of 3,905,387 total
registered voters. Now wait for the good news of the
kingdom; this beautiful State has 1,335,424 voters that
it can conjure whenever needed or ready.


If you think Kaduna was super, please, wait for the
almighty Kano where no serious candidate can play silly
pranks with the energetic and fearless Governor, Rabiu
Kwankwaso. In 2011, Buhari massacred Jonathan with
1,624,543 against 440,666. The then Governor and
Presidential candidate, Ibrahim Shekarau even scored
more than the President with his 526,310 votes. The
total votes cast came to 2,673,228 out of 5,027,297. In
case your Maths is poor like mine, let’s find a
calculator before the brains explode. Kano alone can
conveniently and benevolently donate 2,354,069
potential voters out of the skies.




We finally arrive in Buhari’s homestead of Katsina
where he expectedly polled 1,163,919 against
Jonathan’s 428,392. It is either many Katsina people
didn’t dig their own son, since prophets hardly get
honoured at home, or Buhari just didn’t employ artful
dodgers to manipulate the votes in his favour. In all,
1,639,532 voters performed their civic duty out of
3,126,898 registered voters. By fire, by force, Katsina
on a good day can still conjure some 1,487,366 votes.



Please, permit me to fast forward to the State of the
Sokoto Caliphate where a floodgate can still be
opened. Strangely, Buhari pulled merely 540,769 shots
against Jonathan’s 309,057. A total of 909,808 voters
came out of 2,267,509 registered voters. No one is able
to explain this anomalous situation to us properly but
some 1,357,701 unseen voters may decide to show up in
2015. Please, bear with me, you must be getting tired
but we need to do this together because of my over-
confident friends in Abuja who must have had F9 in
Mathematics like me.


Let me now give you the shock treatment and take you
straight to the biggest theatres of war. I must warn
that this not for the faint-hearted. Welcome to the
heartbeat of Nigeria known as Lagos State where
Jonathan polled 1,281,688 against Buhari’s 189,983 and
Nuhu Ribadu’s 427,203. Wait for this, only 1,945,044
voters turned up out of 6,108,069 voters. In effect,
Lagos can, in its true majesty, produce additional
4,163,025 out of its bag of magic.


I wish there was space to display all the figures but it
won’t be possible. But let me continue with the random
sampling. Many of the States won by Jonathan or PDP
or both, depending on why you voted in 2011, are not so
easily available at this time. Take Oyo for example
under the control of APC beyond the next Presidential
election may prove too tough to handle. Only 863,544
out of 2,572,140 voters appeared in public but we don’t
know the whereabouts of 1,708,596 potential voters.



Ogun State is another interesting territory where
543,715 people voted out of 1,941,170 who registered to
vote. Meanwhile, the largest turnout of voters was
recorded in areas controlled by Jonathan but let’s
examine the figures. Abia has used up 1,188,333 out of
1,524,484; Akwa Ibom 1,232,395 out of 1,616,873;
Anambra 1,157,239 out of 2,011,746; BAYELSA
506,693 out of 591,870; Cross River 726,341 out of
1,148,486; Delta 1,398,579 out of 2,032,191; Edo 621 out
of 1,655,776; Ebonyi 502,890 out of 1,050,534; Ekiti
261,858 out of 764,726; Enugu 814,009 out of 1,303155;
Imo 1,409,850 out of 1,687,293; Kwara 414,754 out of
1,152,361; Ondo 486,837 out of 1,616,091; Osun (lost by
Jonathan) 512,714 out of 1,293,967; Rivers (the largest
State in South South) 1,854,116 out of 2,429,231 and so
and so on.

This should give you a fair representation of what is at
stake in the 2015 election. Politics is not exactly Maths
but it is still a game of numbers. Those who think an
incumbent President cannot be defeated should wake up
from their self-induced coma. The mood of the Nigerian
nation is very similar to that which swept Obama into
power. Lagos and Kano combined account for
11,135,366 registered voters out of a grand total of
73,528,040. Only 38,199,219 people voted in all the
States. There are 35,328,821 floating somewhere. Most
of them are comfortably resident in APC States.
My free advice to the Jonathan campaigner is simple;
stop projecting our President as a sectional leader
whose only qualification is where he comes from. Stop
raining insults on Northerners and avoid maligning
innocent Muslims. The religious card you wish and hope
to play will never play out in favour of President
Jonathan. You should concentrate on projecting the
positive work and his Transformation Agenda. A
President is the father of the nation. A lot of damage
has been done by portraying him as a victim who’s
derided by everyone except his own.
The President’s handlers should worry more about how
the goodwill of 2011 got frittered away in such a jiffy.
Above all, they should urgently search for competent
Maths teachers.
Believe me, the figures are no longer adding up.

abusidiqu.com/buhari-or-jonathan-lets-do-some-mathematics-by-dele-momodu/?utm_source=&utm_medium=twitter

This epistle coming from a man that got only 1 vote in his polling unit. Balderdash!

Sunnybobo3:
This epistle coking from a man that got only 1 vote in his polling unit. Balderdash!

This is the same over confidence that the OP talked about......the man simply put in figures, but you have nothing againsts the figure but rather waved it aside.

GEJ undoing is the religion card and it will 100% work against him at the polls next year.

Watch and see as events unfolds.

the odds are against GEJ this time around.
Good luck to Goodluck

Sunnybobo3:
This epistle coking from a man that got only 1 vote in his polling unit. Balderdash!

So his writeup is balderdash simply because he got one vote from his polling unit. Now I understand why there was mass failure at the last WAEC exams

Are you from the moon? If you ever think that your vote will count in the coming elections, then you are on a very long thing.

And the writer of this epistle forgot that this is 9ja!!
A country where 16 is greater than 19......smh

The man should write something like this:

Reasons why Dele Momodu of Ovation secured ONLY one presidential vote!

This will make a good reading and learning exercise and also explain why Dele Momodu is NOT contesting for 2015 Presidential Elections!

My free advice to the Jonathan campaigner is simple;
stop projecting our President as a sectional leader
whose only qualification is where he comes from. Stop
raining insults on Northerners and avoid maligning
innocent Muslims. The religious card you wish and hope
to play will never play out in favour of President
Jonathan. You should concentrate on projecting the
positive work and his Transformation Agenda. A
President is the father of the nation. A lot of damage
has been done by portraying him as a victim who’s
derided by everyone except his own.
The President’s handlers should worry more about how
the goodwill of 2011 got frittered away in such a jiffy.
Above all, they should urgently search for competent
Maths teachers.

Unfortunately that's too late for him.

Sunnybobo3:
This epistle coking from a man that got only 1 vote in his polling unit. Balderdash!

am so sure ur comment was based on the topic and not content. Pathetic that ur friends in ideas will check out the topic, read your post and happily leave the tread without understanding the thunder bolt that will strike jona's camp come 2015.

This lecture is boring...

This is the beauty of having a highly tolerant and democrated administration.

Even a photographer has an opinion to air.

*yawning* what is d final answer...

luvmijeje:


Unfortunately that's too late for him.

Giving vaccine to a dead ebola patient

Lagos only 1,945,044 voters turned up out of 6,108,069 voters.

Ogun, only 543,715 people voted out of 1,941,170 who registered to vote.


Oyo, Only 863,544 out of 2,572,140 voters appeared


Osun 512,714 out of 1,293,967 registered voters


Ondo 486,837 out of 1,616,091 registered voters.

From the 2011 presidential election


I think the South West will decide the winner of next election, Apc need to present a vice president from that region, a very popular one.



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descartes, egift, arewafederation, Egbagirl, donroxy,
Sweetlemon , donphilopus, BEREM, desola ,
demdem , lakpalakpa , whitecat007 , ,
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and all Omexonomy, jmaine, mikeansy, Firefire,
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sincere9gerian, firefire, Phockphockman, ilugunboy, naptu2, aussie

arabbunkum:
Are you from the moon? If you ever think that your vote will count in the coming elections, then you are on a very long thing.

The votes will count. We shall vote and stand by to watch them count the votes and announce the results at the respective polling units. We shall broadcast videos and audio of the announcements on social media and no one os gonna subvert the course of justice and the will of the electorates this time!

God Bless Buhari.

^^^ compare these numbers to gej's stronghold, Apc should be smiling.

Abia has used up 1,188,333 out of
1,524,484; Akwa Ibom 1,232,395 out of 1,616,873;
Anambra 1,157,239 out of 2,011,746; BAYELSA
506,693 out of 591,870; Cross River 726,341 out of
1,148,486; Delta 1,398,579 out of 2,032,191; Edo 621 out
of 1,655,776; Ebonyi 502,890 out of 1,050,534; Ekiti
261,858 out of 764,726; Enugu 814,009 out of 1,303155;
Imo 1,409,850 out of 1,687,293; Kwara 414,754 out of
1,152,361; Ondo 486,837 out of 1,616,091

Madam Obiagelli,
What would Jesus have said?
In as much as a lot of us has had our hopes up learning GMB had gotten into the race, picked up the nomination form and eventually declared; there's still just one sceptical question which haven't been answered yet: would GMB fly the APC flag at the presidential elections?

Let's not forget that at the primaries, some 'selected' inner-circle party members (ones who'd be secretly compromised days into the primaries) would decide if he gets it, unfortunately. How I wished winning of the APC presidential ticket for GMB at the primaries woulda been Rocgirl's or Obiagelli's to decide!

At the moment, I think the most important hurdle GMB has to clear is and I repeat win at the primaries. Until then Ma'am, I'd rather we kept the permutations and combinations --hibernating!

sunkoye:
am so sure ur comment was based on the topic and not content. Pathetic that ur friends in ideas will check out the topic, read your post and happily leave the tread without understanding the thunder bolt that will strike jona's camp come 2015.

Keep hallucinating like Dele Momodu. I'll be back here to laugh at you and your co travellers on February 16th 2015.

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to know where the VP candidiate of APC should come from.

If election is a game of number and you are looking for the numbers, you look for numbers where you are relatively popular before going to look for additional numbers elsewhere.

I keep saying.....it will be game over for APC if they failed to pick a VP from the SW.

Obiagelli:




I think the South West will decide the winner of next election, Apc need to present a vice president from that region, a very popular one.

This is the problem with you fools always giving yourself too much credit. The outcome of the last election was in the middle belt. The christian middle belt of Plateau, South Kaduna, Taraba, parts of Niger, Abuja as well as Gombe in the northeast and Adamawa where the major victory swing states for GEJ.

This is all thanks to Buhari's rampaging Fulani militia.

SW if you like vote Abacha's corpse. Slaves. By the way, Ekiti, Lagos, Oyo,Ogun and Ondo will be GEJ.

It is that voodoo ritual enclave osun that buhari can have and for all i care

Obiagelli:

You are very correct, these numbers says it all, I hope they pick a very popular guy, no just any Swesterner.

You are correct...that is the only thing I forgot to add.

Let those using religion and tribe to divide Nigerians keep doing it....they will suffer the whirlwind eventually.

hifaif:


So his writeup is balderdash simply because he got one vote from his polling unit. Now I understand why there was mass failure at the last WAEC exams

Well, my state Anambra had almost 70% pass rate, so your logomachy holds no water.

ilugunboy:
You don't need to be a rocket scientist to know where the VP candidiate of APC should come from.
If election is a game of number and you are looking for the numbers, you look for numbers where you are relatively popular before going to look for additional numbers elsewhere.
I keep saying.....it will be game over for APC if they failed to pick a VP from the SW.

Settling for second place.

Isn't this why you chickened out in 1966?

You yorbas think a fanatical mulsim despot like Buhari is ready to share power with kafurs like yourselves?

If you think Fashola is a stooge for tinibu now watch and see how Buhari will use him as a leg table support.

But you and I know that will never happen.

Why because GEJ will win and you idiots will whine like the b1tches you are for the next 4 years.