..Going by the picture above,Buhari-Fashola remains the best bet.Add Nassarawa,Kwara and Adamawa to Buhari 2011 states.Then a Fashola Ticket will enable APC mobilize the SW effectively.The area where muslim-Muslim will be an issue is SE/SS that APC can never win anyway even if they present a Christian/Christian ticket.

chukwudi44:


The proponents of this muslim-muslim ticket actually believe. Muslims are in the majority in Nigeria and can single handedly decide the president, there are in for a rude shock

Right from the onset, even before this possible muslim muslim debates...I've always predicted that the election in 2015 may be the first in Nigeria history that will go into a run off....a win by simple majorty

If that is the case....it's almost game over for PDP....

PDP is lucky that we don't run an electoral college system like the US....

ratiken:


'STORY FOR THE GODS'. Present a muslim/ muslim ticket and watch pdp suspend all campaigns cos you would have done all the campaign for them...... Especially in this era of bokoharam and ISIS

Bros, na wa 4 u oooo. What do u take us for? Illiterates? E go surprise you. A b'um onye igbo and I live in the Niger Delta. A born again Christian too. I have lived most of my life in d SS/SE region yet I'm totally in for the knock-out combo of Buhari/Fashola. No dey deceive ppl wit d religious ish. E no go work. Competence over Cluelessness. #Sai Buhari/Fashola 2015

ilugunboy:


It will not work with you and those sold on religion sentiment over the issue of ability to perform.....but it will work for millions of Nigerians that are not bother(sic) about Muslim/Christian Christian /Muslim Muslim/Muslim Christian/Chrisitan nonsense.

If paired, I assured(sic) you that many pastors in SW will campaign for the ticket inside their churches.

keep on da fartings n hallucinations but pls stop breaking bottles..take ur made in mars formula to hell..

Desric:
You are a very brilliant political analyst. SE/SS are somehow irrelevant to the success of the APC, the battle ground remains the SW as such a Fashola's VP candidature for the APC might just do the needed magic.

It depends on your definition of briliance and your level of briliancy too. PDP has two SW states and as far as am concern Edo and a big chunk of Lagos will fall to PDP, so now decide for yourself if fielding a westerner will make such a significant impact.

chukwudi44:


What makes you think the ticket will win even if yoruba christians are okay with it? You make it look like there are no christians in the north in middle belt.It is even easier for christians in the SE/SS to vote in a muslim-muslim ticket than these northern xtians who have borne the brunt of the boko haram insurgency

please tell them. many people dont know that over 40% of the north are a mix of christians and traditionalists. these people have borne the brunt of BH attacks, the same Boko haram Buhari was referring to when in response to their attacks said "ONE MANS TERRORIST IS ANOTHER MANs FREEDOM FIGHTER" by GMB
so someone in his right minds still expect to get bloc votes from nothern christians after Buhari made the above statement in the wake of atrocities committed against this same people!

dunkem21:
Like I said before, they want to sample our opinions and revert to their paymasters.

I will not comment till they present a muslim/muslim ticket; Then I will ask a million and one questions.

Till then.

#dorofreshair

u just told them everything they need to know
SAI BUHARI

victorD3:



It depends on your definition of briliance and your level of briliancy too. PDP has two SW states and as far as am concern Edo and a big chunk of Lagos will fall to PDP, so now decide for yourself if fielding a westerner will make such a significant impact.

You are a PDP apologist....so you should pray that the combo see the light of the day..so that PDP can easily win..

It's funny to see that PDP sympathizers are the ones advising APC now about who to field or not field as VP....

Etruth:
Bros, na wa 4 u oooo. What do u take us for? Illiterates? E go surprise you. A b'um onye igbo and I live in the Niger Delta. A born again Christian too. I have lived most of my life in d SS/SE region yet I'm totally in for the knock-out combo of Buhari/Fashola. No dey deceive ppl wit d religious ish. E no go work. Competence over Cluelessness. #Sai Buhari/Fashola 2015

Your likes would just seat tight at home facing TV on election day. Perhaps you don't even have a voters card or you registered in your village which you only travel to once a year but stay in PH.

. [quote author=ilugunboy post=27267425]

As far as SE is concerned, they rarely vote for anyone in opposition at national level...they prefer going with any party in power...it's proven over and over time....it won't be different this time around.[/quote

I can't remember SW voting for an opposition party at national level. Remember what happened in 2011.

I'm not from SE tho

South East will vote anyone against Buhari

We just don't like the man

That said APC have not done their homework

They will loose no matter who they field

ilugunboy:



You are a PDP apologist....so you should pray that the combo see the light of the day..so that PDP can easily win..

Im not in any political party but I watch situation closely from the situation room

CFCfan:
A Buhari/Fashola seems unbeatable; only slightly better than an Atiku/Fashola combo.

However, as the constitution requires a successful candidate to garner, at least, 25% of the vote in 24 states; will the APC candidate reach the threshold in the SE and SS, and all the NC states?
If the answer is no, and assuming the APC candidate has a majority of the vote, I see the election going into a run-off.

Bros, I'm “very certain” that Buhari will win at least 11 NW/NEstern states out of the 13, while he'd have up to 48% of the total votes cast in each of the remaining 2. With a SWestner [Fashola] as his running mate, he's definitely gonna clear all the 6 SW states. What about the North Central?! He's gonna win Niger, Nasarawa, and two other states with a landslide. However, he'd still garner at least 48% of the total votes in the remaining 2.

As for the SS, Edo is sure for APC, while Rivers and Imo definitely gonna account for 40% and 30% votes for APC respectively. If you're good in calculation, you'd see that all these states are more than 2:3!

victorD3:


Im not in any political party but I watch situation closely from the situation room

Lmao...

Johnnyessence:
its just a mere rumour its will be buhari/ameachi ticket.

no one likes Amaechi

ilugunboy:


It will not work with you and those sold on religion sentiment over the issue of ability to perform.....but it will work for millions of Nigerians that are not bother about Muslim/Christian Christian /Muslim Muslim/Muslim Christian/Chrisitan nonsense.

If paired, I assured you that many pastors in SW will campaign for the ticket inside their churches.

an ocean of 'likes' to this post.

mikeansy:
...

Thank you for being an honest man.

ilugunboy:


Right from the onset, even before this possible muslim muslim debates...I've always predicted that the election in 2015 may be the first in Nigeria history that will go into a run off....a win by simple majorty

If that is the case....it's almost game over for PDP....

PDP is lucky that we don't run an electoral college system like the US....

The fact that we do not use electoral college system means it is the number of votes cast that will decide the winner and not the no of states won.Consider the percentage of xtians/SS/SE in the north and sw and then compare with the percentage of muslims/hausas/yorubas in the SE/SS and tell me what you see.

That is why Buhari was winning by 50-60% while GEJ was winning by over 90% and ended up winning the election

ilugunboy:


I assure you and your type that the only place such high intolerance resides are in the North and SS/SW and NEVER in the SW.

SE/SS votes are already on locked down for GEJ.....so there is little APC will do to appease those two regions.....the North is weighing heavily for APC....the battle ground is the SW.....all you need is a person with good record of political office, and that is very popular to unlock the idle voters in the region to come out and vote....FASHOLA meets the criteria.

Just like most yorubas..I have Muslims and Christians in my own household...living amicably without rancour, so why should we allow foreign religion to determine who to vote for against competency.

Forget your bullshytee religions when it comes to SW....

Well said bro...'foreign religion'
not until we stop this stupid mentality, Nigeria will never be good..

How i wish there was no Religion.

okosodo:
muslim-muslim will not work

it wil work i.e if the xtains ar assured that senate president and d deputy, speaker and dep speaker wil b xtains.

ilugunboy:


You are one of those in the forefront of this nonsensical religion blackmail on this forum....what has this Christian/Muslim ticket done for you outside the fact that you profess the same religion with the president.....has it ever add a kobo to your pocket or landed you your dream job?

Keep deceiving yourself that the religion of you president guarantee your well being.

at least nobody has declared Jihad on him even in his penilessnes and the one declared on the poor christians up north is being fought ruthlessly by our gallant soldiers. you think we dont imagine what would happen if a Buhari Commander im cheif decides to treat them as his freedom fighters while they go about commiting genocide for Islam.
we are fully aware that the Boko haram fight is against those northern christians who denied them a bloc vote in the last presidential elections and who they have termed enemies of the north.

donphilopus:


Bros, I'm “very certain” that Buhari will win at least 11 NW/NEstern states out of the 13, while he'd have up to 48% of the total votes cast in each of the remaining 2. With a SWestner [Fashola] as his running mate, he's definitely gonna clear all the 6 SW states. What about the North Central?! He's gonna win Niger, Nasarawa, and two other states with a landslide. However, he'd still garner at least 48% of the total votes in the remaining 2.

As for the SS, Edo is sure for APC, while Rivers and Imo definitely gonna account for 40% and 30% votes for APC respectively. If you're good in calculation, you'd see that all these states are more than 2:3!

Buhari cannever score more than 5% in imo even if he runs with okorocha!!! He can't get more than 10% in RIvers and edo.

Furthermore a muslim-muslim ticket will never win in taraba,nassarawa,kogi,benue,plateau,southern kadunna

chukwudi44:


The proponents of this muslim-muslim ticket actually believe. Muslims are in the majority in Nigeria and can single handedly decide the president, there are in for a rude shock

I'm a Christian but I'm voting based on Character and competence, not religion. GEJ has a Christian name ( Jonathan) bt I don't see any Christ-like virtue in him and his administration. So what makes him a Christian? Well, you are doing you job by misleading d gullible ones. I'm smarter than that. GEJ Till 2015.# Sai GMB/BRF . Nigeria, evil men will no longer rule you.

chukwudi44:


The fact that we do not use electoral college system means it is the number of votes cast that will decide the winner and not the no of states won.Consider the percentage of xtians/SS/SE in the north and sw and then compare with the percentage of muslims/hausas/yorubas in the SE/SS and tell me what you see.

That is why Buhari was winning by 50-60% while GEJ was winning by over 90% and ended up winning the election

I don't know if you know how electoral college system works....but let me just point it out.

Assuming Kano have 56 electoral points.

Lagos would have something like 60-65 points

The whole electoral points for SE / SS aggregated would not be more than 80 points.

See how the votes in the two regions would have become completely valueless with an electoral college system under the present condition?

Lanrefreshkid:



Well said bro...'foreign religion'
not until we stop this stupid mentality, Nigeria will never be good..

How i wish there was no Religion.

i wish i cud kick religion to the various houses of worship where they belong so that our politics can b free from it.

chukwudi44:


Buhari cannever score more than 5% in imo even if he runs with okorocha!!! He can't get more than 10% in RIvers and edo.

Furthermore a muslim-muslim ticket will never win in taraba,nassarawa,kogi,benue,plateau,southern kadunna

dream on.

Guess we need to understand the maths involved in winning a presidential election then we will understand why Buhari/Fashola ticket may not fly the SS/SE is lock down by GEJ Buhari can't get up 20% in any of the zone also a couple of states in the NC in the SW GEJ will get over 30% in most of the states if not all so technically having the required 24 state that is asides getting over 25% in a few states in NE/NW dats the strongest hold of Buhari dats a problem because Buhari can't get up to the required 25% in GEJ's strong hold as such cant get the required 25% votes in 24 states to be returned elected . We may have a case of GEJ with fewer votes but with the spread declared winner n returned elected that's the position of the constitution . I may be wrong in my analysis as I am not a lawyer will like a lawyer to to X-ray my analysis cheers

ilugunboy:



....and the Christians in Kaduna have been bearing the brunt of the Boko Haram insurgency...while the C-I-C looks the other side because of the politics of 2015.

The Chibok girls are predominantly Christians who have been embarrassed, ridiculed, maligned and treated as outcasts by GEJ....a fellow Christian..do you think such mothers and fathers that PEJ insulted in Aso rock will ever pray that GEJ returns?

The consolidating opinion in the north right now.....regardless of religion is that this govt have a hand in the insecurity in the north.

You make sense die my brother.
I was in Bauchi in January 2011 during the voters registration of 2011 and you needed to how the christians were mobilising to register just to make sure they vote for gej, they even had thier kinsmen return all the way from lag and other places just to register and prepare for the election proper and what gej could reward them with is his inability to deal with bh decisively leading to wanton loss of lives and properties.
I hope more Nigerians can wakeup and see that religious sentiments is doing us no good.

I'm a believer of Jesus Christ but I'm voting Buhari / Fashola God willing.

ilugunboy:


Very stale.

Let's meet again on February 16th to analyse it.

Shalom!

victorD3:



It depends on your definition of briliance and your level of briliancy too. PDP has two SW states and as far as am concern Edo and a big chunk of Lagos will fall to PDP, so now decide for yourself if fielding a westerner will make such a significant impact.

sorry bros, BRF is not just any Westerner. He's an accomplished performer. Due to the heterogenous population of Lagos state, his fame and good works has spread to every nook and cranny of d nation. Fashola is a born leader. I'm not a westerner, but I would vote him even if he is paired with GEJ. Tho I don't think much abt GEJ

ilugunboy:


I don't know if you know how electoral college system works....but let me just point it out.

Assuming Kano have 56 electoral points.

Lagos would have something like 60-65 points

The whole electoral points for SE / SS aggregated would not be more than 80 points.

See how the votes in the two regions would have become completely valueless with an electoral college system under the present condition?

Thanks for the analysis but better wake up to reality as we do not use the undemocratic electoral college system.Votees are going to count in 2015 which means my vote for GEJ in lagos would be recorded.BTW kano is recored as been more popuous than lagos during the last census and should have more college votes

chukwudi44:


Buhari cannever score more than 5% in imo even if he runs with okorocha!!! He can't get more than 10% in RIvers and edo.

Furthermore a muslim-muslim ticket will never win in taraba,nassarawa,kogi,benue,plateau,southern kadunna

#pours cold water on him# Wake up

okosodo:
muslim-muslim will not work

Upright Man-Competent man combination will work.
Leave religion out of it. Buhari's closest friend is Tam David West. Fashola has an Ibo Christian friend of his in his cabinet who is actually under consideration for Lagos governor. Leave religion and tribalism out of it. Cluelessness is cluelessness, stop defending a corrupt and unintelligent presidency.