During 2009-2013, the first five years of President Jonathan’s administration, real GDP growth averaged 6-7 per cent, a fact often touted by the government. But this record is much lower than that of the first five years of civilian rule (1999 – 2005), when growth averaged 11.1 percent. (Figure 1) This is despite the fact that oil prices were much lower at that time than now, and foreign investors’ appetite for Nigeria was not as strong as now. The difference, it seems, is in the leadership and policy choices of the different periods. Therefore, President Jonathan’s achievement can hardly be said to be “unprecedented”. It’s actually poorer than his predecessor’s achievements in less benign circumstances.

Fiscal balances: Nigeria’s fiscal balances are much weaker than at any time since the beginning of civilian regime. In the first five years of President Jonathan, the fiscal account was in deficit, on average by 4 per cent of GDP. During the first five years of civilian rule in contrast, the fiscal balance was in surplus, on average, by close to 2 percent of GDP. (Figure 2) Again, this is despite much lower oil revenue earnings during the earlier period. Even though the Jonathan fiscal deficit remains small by international standards, it is still higher than that of many oil exporting countries which are all accumulating surpluses rather than deficit and using the opportunity of high oil prices to invest in long term infrastructure. What is becoming clear to critical observers is that the budget deficit is more or less contrived through an unrealistic oil benchmark price. With lower revenue and higher expenditure projections, the result is a deficit balance. DMO is then required to “borrow” at excessive cost “to finance the deficit”. But with the usual less than 70 percent implementation rate of the budget, nobody has bothered to find out why there is still a deficit if the budgeted amount was not spent and why the need to accumulate new debt!

Public debt: Public debt stock is much higher than at any time since the Paris Club debt exit of 2006. In 2007, total public debt fell to N2,678b ($3.5b external debt from $36b, and N2.2b domestic debt). But as of end 2013, public debt has increased by more than 300 percent to N8,423b ($8.2b external, and $60b domestic). (Figure 3). If AMCON debt and other agencies are included, the total debt burden is now over N1 trillion. By end of 2014, Nigeria’s total debt should easily approach over $100b, most of which were accumulated in the past 6 years. Given the well-established negative correlation of debt and economic growth, how has growth been so strong?

Debt service: According to 2013 federal budget data, close to 20 percent of recurrent expenditure is devoted to servicing debt alone, a contrast to 2007, when only around 10 percent of recurrent expenditure was spent on debt service. The major conundrum is the lack of clarity on why debt accumulation should be so high in the presence of historically high oil prices, and what exactly the debt is financing. Furthermore, government’s policy of accumulating debt at average interest rates of 13-15 percent when the same government is receiving less than 3 per cent on its savings (foreign reserves) beats economic logic. Why not use some of the savings to finance the needs and save 10 percent? It will also be interesting to find out why debt accumulation is bad in 1999-2007, but is now a good thing.

Foreign reserves: Nigeria’s foreign reserves have followed a pattern similar to the other indicators since the beginning of civilian rule. In the Obasanjo and Yar’Adua periods, reserves high enough to finance, on average over 7 and 10 months of imports respectively. However, in the six years of President Jonathan, it has declined to about 6.3 months of imports. (Figure 4). When compared with other oil exporting African countries, in the first two periods, Nigeria’s foreign reserve accumulation was stronger than those of other countries. However, in the recent period, Nigeria is just about catching up with others. Although stabilization funds exist, the federal government has struggled to replenish them, despite high oil prices.

While some indicators improved in the early post military era, many have now nose-dived, as no conscious effort has been made to skew policies in favour of socio economic wellbeing. Some examples:
Life expectancy is just 54 years, eight years lower than in Ghana and 20 years lower than in Brazil.

The rate of childhood malnutrition is 24 percent, more than eight times the rate in Mexico.

Basic literacy among 15- to 24-year-olds is just 66 per cent, compared with 99 per cent in South Africa.

Official estimates of poverty rate vary from 41 per cent to 56 per cent, depending on whether the poverty line is drawn at 2,500 calories per day or at US$1.25 per day. However, according to a recent study, 74 per cent of the population lives below the economic empowerment line. This is a more stringent definition than “poverty line”. As a result, there are still 32 per cent of the population that are above the official calorie-based poverty line but are not “economically empowered”.

Infrastructure continues to be a major challenge: electric power, transportation infrastructure, telecommunications infrastructure and Internet and broadband access is limited. Water and wastewater systems are nonexistent outside a few cities.

Reputation for widespread corruption remains high, ranking at 139th out of the 176 countries on Transparency International’s 2014 Corruption Perception Index.

World Bank governance and business environment indicators are much weaker than for oil exporting or African peers. Nigeria ranks 158th out of 189 economies for trading across borders. Global Competitiveness Report of the World Economic Forum for 2013-2014, ranked Nigeria 120th out of 148 countries in the Global Competitiveness Index
Nigeria’s budgetary process is now adjudged one of the weakest in the world. In the annual “Open Budget” Survey, Nigeria’s ranking has declined progressively since 2006, and in the latest ranking for 2012, Nigeria scored 16 per cent. This does not compare favorably with the performance of South Africa (90%), Uganda (65%), Ghana (50%) and Angola (28%).

lacasa:
The facts are unadulterated.


Only eediots support the govt of Jonathan

Adminisher:
He will not get our votes. To be fair to Jonathan, I don't think he realized what was happening under Okonjo with her borrow and spend agenda. Too many shady consultants are confusing the govt with figures that are skewed against truth. We shall respond with our votes.

oziegbe2015:
and yet two big eyeballs women that control gej with lipstick, would come and start speaking terminology, after they cripple our country they would go to us. Do u knw that none of both iweala and deaziani families live in nigeria(from husbands to children and extended family) they dont care about nigeria thats why ngozi asked to be paid in dollar currency instead of naira to 'serve her fatherland'. Vote for CHANGE

Mogidi:
Nigeria didn't become the 26th richest economy under Dr Jonathan because of mismanagement.

Nigeria didn't become the largest economy in Africa because of mismanagement.

One Good term deserves another.

Vote DR. Goodluck Jonathan for continuation.

barcanista:
OP thank you very much. We have been saying that this government is wrecking the economy of Nigeria and must be booted out of office in 2015 before Nigeria go into complete ruins

Nigeria Lost $7.92bn To Corruption In One Year

A total of $7.92billion in illicit capital flowed of out Nigeria in 2012, according to the latest report released by the US-based non-profit research and advisory organisation, Global Financial Integrity (GFI).

For the year 2012, only Nigeria and South Africa are the two African countries ranked in the top 20 countries for illicit financial outflows. Nigeria was ranked 17th behind South Africa, which ranks 9th with cumulative illicit financial outflows of $29.13 in 2012.

According to the report, "Illicit Financial Flows from Developing Countries: 2003-2012," emerging economies lost a whopping $991.2billion in facilitating crime, corruption and tax evasion.

However, in the 10-year period between 2003 and 2012, Nigeria was ranked 10th with a cumulative of $157.46billion, surpassing South Africa which was ranked 12th with a cumulative $122.14billion. Also, Nigeria and South Africa are the only two African countries that were ranked for illicit financial outflows in the 10-year period between 2003 and 2012.

More from: http://leadership.ng/news/395733/nigeria-lost-7-92bn-corruption-one-year

anonimi:


You better stop spreading these your propaganda lies, you hear me so!
Just one report showing more than 50% decrease in the outflow of corruption $ under this administration =>



Is the improvement not in sync with what Transparency International reported that our country's corruption index globally has also improved from 144th in 2013 to 136th this year

Can this be a manifestation of the SYSTEMATIC fight against corruption by the federal administration of Jonathan/Sambo that follows Law & Order as in any CIVILISED society even though slow but produces LASTING results?

chemali:


Systematic fight against corruption? Puhleaseeeee. Explain the oil and kerosene subsidy scams. Explain the pension and police pension scams. Explain the malabu oil scandal. Explain the arms scandal. Explain increasing oil theft. Where are the convictions for the thieves? Fighting corruption my foot! Rather he pardoned a fugitive from the law and associates himself with a drug pusher running from the law.

Edgar and Vonna Jo Gregory pardons

In March 2000, Bill Clinton pardoned Edgar and Vonna Jo Gregory, owners of the carnival company United Shows International, for charges of bank fraud from a 1982 conviction. Although the couple had already been released from prison, the prior conviction prevented them from doing business in certain American states. First Lady Hillary Clinton's youngest brother, Tony Rodham, was an acquaintance of the Gregorys, and had lobbied Clinton on their behalf. In October 2006, the group Judicial Watch filed a request with the U.S. Justice Department for an investigation, alleging that Rodham had received $107,000 from the Gregorys for the pardons in the form of loans that were never repaid, as part of a quid pro quo scheme

From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Clinton_pardon_controversy

anonimi:


All the scandals you mentioned are being investigated and when completed prosecuted. Most of them have been discussed here on NL.
He did NOT pardon a fugitive. Alams had already served his punishment in Nigeria. Bill Clinton who was paid $750,000 by Fashola to show up briefly in Lagos pardoned worse cases as president. Below is just ONE example =>



Kindly note that I do not support Alams' pardon.

I thought it was Tinubu who forfeited his bank balance for drug money laundering.
Did I miss something

chemali:

Last I checked, incompetent presidents usually lose at the ballots either in the mid terms or presidential elections.

anonimi:


Like Bill Clinton, the comparison made here- not so

major466:
It appears the APC e minions have decided to console themselves with another thread to lament over yesterday's massive defeat at the hands of King datolee.

chemali:


What defeat? It's no competition. If it was the truth no one would have qualms accepting.

This here however is the truth. This is the reality of many Nigerians. They are worse off than they were in 2009. EveRything has become hard. And Nigeria is far less competitive.

Mogidi:
Nigeria didn't become the 26th richest economy under Dr Jonathan because of mismanagement.

Nigeria didn't become the largest economy in Africa because of mismanagement.

One Good term deserves another.

Vote DR. Goodluck Jonathan for continuation.