This exercise is an attempt to picture how the next presidential election will be won and lost.

It is based on the following factors and assumptions:

1. That there will be 80% voters turnout across the country

2. The two candidates popularity and general acceptability

3. Each party's spread and their strength in each state

4. New developments in the political terrain of a state irrespective of the party that rules the state


If you have a different view or opinion, please let's hear it.



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Election cancelled....after two days of voting....typical june 12 result......
watch out....

I don't agree with the number one. Why? So many people don't even know who to vote for btw both of GEJ and GMB. One when you think about him, you still fear that something really bad might happen. And the other his really wet with a lot of water which is trying to dry.


Many people will rather not vote.

Nigerian vote wisely, four years is to big to languish in poverty and insecurity....VOTe CHANGE!

Good prediction. but i disagree with you about kogi state. Buhari will win the state. And what happen to North west? strong hold of Buhari is North west.

Good prediction. but i disagree with you about kogi state. Buhari will win the state. And what happen to North west? strong hold of Buhari is North west.. GEJ 18m and GMB 17m but the result of North west is on the way. sokoto, kaduna, kebi, kasina, kano and zamfara. which i believe GBM will win in the zone.

Well articulated. The prediction may not be far from reality.

But South West will spring surprises. Even in Lagos,GEJ may win convincingly.

The problem of my village alone can not be solved in 6 years from now. In order words, the problemssssssssss of Nigeria will and can not be solved in the next 7 years. Therefore GMB is not the Messiah.
GEJ till 2099

Laugh wan tear my belle o!

Buhari having 200,000+ votes in Anambra?
Chai! Sorry, but Buhari will not have up to 8,000 votes in Anambra.

And not just that, even "Invalid" will score more votes than Buhari in the East.

psucc:
Well articulated. The prediction may not be far from reality.

But South West will spring surprises. Even in Lagos,GEJ may win convincingly.

I don't see any reason why GEJ will win Lagos. I agree he will perform reasonably well here but Tinubu and Fashola will deliver Lagos to Buhari.

In other SW states, Buhari will still edge him based on what we see and hear from those states.

What a prediction skewed in favour of the dictator fact is SW,NE and NC is a battle ground for votes for both PDP and APC and no party is assured of any victory until after the 14th. SS and SE is definately for GEJ and NW for Buhari. There is also no way Tinubu can defeat the federal might,Bode george,Obanikoro ,Agbaje and the majority votes from SE & SS based in Lagos

Ozin:
What a prediction skewed in favour of the dictator fact is SW,NE and NC is a battle ground for votes for both PDP and APC and no party is assured of any victory until after the 14th. SS and SE is definately for GEJ and NW for Buhari. There is also no way Tinubu can defeat the federal might,Bode george,Obanikoro ,Agbaje and the majority votes from SE & SS based in Lagos

So, in your imagination Jonathan will win in the NE? It's certain he cannot and same goes with the SW. The North Central he will, but Buhari will record a good showing there and win Kwara, Niger and Nassaraw.

I have been very conservative with Buhari's figures including his stronghold NW hence you don't see 90% win percentage even in his own state.

And I have assumed the reasonable maximum for GEJ in his stronghold of the SS with 90% of the votes in Bayelsa.

The fact is GEJ is gone come Feb. 2015

PassingShot:


I don't see any reason why GEJ will win Lagos. I agree he will perform reasonably well here but Tinubu and Fashola will deliver Lagos to Buhari.

In other SW states, Buhari will still edge him based on what we see and hear from those states.

I think Tinubu and Fashola has a lot to worry about delivering Lagos for APC in this forthcoming Gubernatorial elections because Agbaje is not smiling...as for Presidential, APC will kiss the canvas.

Did i just see Jonathan win Kaduna? Hehehehe. Sambo is from kaduna north, Na APC chairman him get.

john6006:
Election cancelled....after two days of voting....typical june 12 result......
watch out....

My biggest fear

The funniest of them all; 'Buhari wins in 22 States.......' I swear Passingshot is high......

tomakint:
The funniest of them all; 'Buhari wins in 22 States.......' I swear Passingshot is high......

No need to hyperventilate. Just point out which states you think Buhari cannot win in any of the 22 states with reasons.

Nitefury:
Did i just see Jonathan win Kaduna? Hehehehe. Sambo is from kaduna north, Na APC chairman him get.

I know Kaduna is a close call but I still think Jonathan will edge it based on that fact you mentioned and the fact of the Southern Kaduna. We shall see. Just bookmark this thread for after-election analysis.

PassingShot:


No need to hyperventilate. Just point out which states you think Buhari cannot win in any of the 22 states with reasons.

He is just jittery

folawiyoma:
I don't agree with the number one. Why? So many people don't even know who to vote for btw both of GEJ and GMB. One when you think about him, you still fear that something really bad might happen. And the other his really wet with a lot of water which is trying to dry.


Many people will rather not vote.

Based on your point, we should not expect a turnout of more than 65%. But based on the fact that our political parties are known to inflate figures to be able to justify their rigging I have stuck with the 80% voters turnout. Can you even imagine that Lagos PDP have already promised Jonathan 5.9 million votes out of 6.2 million registered voters! That tells you what they plan.

Buhari cannot even get up to 25% in Edo let alone winning the state. Buhari cannot win nassarawa and taraba state either.Buhari would not get up to 10% in any state of the se.Fayose is in complete control of ekitistate. Besides APC has repeatedly insulted ekiti voters after their last defeat, expect payback.

Mark my words, none of the candidates will secure up to 60% of the votes in Lagos and kadunna states. The cosmopolitan and religious make up of this states would make that impossible

Ozin:
What a prediction skewed in favour of the dictator fact is SW,NE and NC is a battle ground for votes for both PDP and APC and no party is assured of any victory until after the 14th. SS and SE is definately for GEJ and NW for Buhari. There is also no way Tinubu can defeat the federal might,Bode george,Obanikoro ,Agbaje and the majority votes from SE & SS based in Lagos

Federal Might and Lagos State whose political relevance is equivalent to 7 small states in Nigeria has been in d hands of d opposition? Remembr OBJ moved dt same "Federal might" to Lagos to capture dt state but.....

PassingShot:


Based on your point, we should not expect a turnout of more than 65%. But based on the fact that our political parties are known to inflate figures to be able to justify their rigging I have stuck with the 80% voters turnout. Can you even imagine that Lagos PDP have already promised Jonathan 5.9 million votes out of 6.2 million registered voters! That tells you what they plan.

What are they planning? Apc are always known to shout rigging whenever they lose

shaqhead:

Federal Might and Lagos State whose political relevance is equivalent to 7 small states in Nigeria has been in d hands of d opposition? Remembr OBJ moved dt same "Federal might" to Lagos to capture dt state but.....

Bros the circumstances have changed, go the streets and interview the market women and okada riders. PDP does not need rigging to win Lagos.

Ikorodu is in complete lockdown, nothing for Apc there at all

chukwudi44:


Bros the circumstances have changed, go the streets and interview the market women and okada riders. PDP does not need rigging to win Lagos.

Ikorodu is in complete lockdown, nothing for Apc there at all

Ok o...time is d revealer of ol tinz

Kenai:
Laugh wan tear my belle o!

Buhari having 200,000+ votes in Anambra?
Chai! Sorry, but Buhari will not have up to 8,000 votes in Anambra.

And not just that, even "Invalid" will score more votes than Buhari in the East.

. Tink the vice versa will take place in southeast

PassingShot:

Just point out which states you think Buhari cannot win in any of the 22 states with reasons.

Lagos, Edo, Oyo etc Your calculations on Northwest aggregate votes is laughable; 10 million (for Buhari) to 4 million (for Jonathan) are u kidding me? FYI, elections will pan out along the strength of party members and those with their PVCs! Be guided Fact is Buhari can never win 15 States let alone 22 So Ondo and Ekiti will be won by Buhari?

PassingShot:


I know Kaduna is a close call but I still think Jonathan will edge it based on that fact you mentioned and the fact of the Southern Kaduna. We shall see. Just bookmark this thread for after-election analysis.

Based on my little experience/knowledge of the political scene in Kd, APC is the party to beat. And for your info, GEJ is not as popular among the Christian community as you would want people to believe.

yes, he'll get substantial number of votes, but i see the APC clinching both the gubernatorial and presidential elections

tomakint:

Lagos, Edo, Oyo etc Your calculations on Northwest aggregate votes is laughable; 10 million (for Buhari) to 4 million (for Jonathan) are u kidding me? FYI, elections will pan out along the strength of party members and those with their PVCs! Be guided Fact is Buhari can never win 15 States let alone 22 You must be new to Nigerian politics.

Calm down mister!

On party strength as you say, APC still controls Lagos, Oyo and Edo. So, you think PDP will win in those states?

And I am old enough to tell you politics of Nigeria from the mid 80's let alone that of the SW where I come from. Original omo Ibadan ni mi

Nitefury:


Based on my little experience/knowledge of the political scene in Kd, APC is the party to beat. And for your info, GEJ is not as popular among the Christian community as you would want people to believe.

yes, he'll get substantial number of votes, but i see the APC clinching both the gubernatorial and presidential elections

That is also good news then.

PassingShot:


Based on your point, we should not expect a turnout of more than 65%. But based on the fact that our political parties are known to inflate figures to be able to justify their rigging I have stuck with the 80% voters turnout. Can you even imagine that Lagos PDP have already promised Jonathan 5.9 million votes out of 6.2 million registered voters! That tells you what they plan.

Still does not justify the way most people think. I mean people that are not affiliated to any political parties.

Nigerians are well inform now you know.


The change we need is omnipotent but the one we have is omnibuhari and omniGettill2019.


If you ask me I seriously need omnifreeeducation and omni24hrselectricity. Anyone that can do it have might eida they are omnibokoharam hahahahah.lol.

Stomach dey do me***rush to toilet.

This is a typical case of building castles on the air.

Create a victory scenario in your head, when you know you can't win, then start shouting foul play, when you eventually lose. Seem to me like APC has already accepted defeat and are now looking for consolation.