PassingShot:


I know Kaduna is a close call but I still think Jonathan will edge it based on that fact you mentioned and the fact of the Southern Kaduna. We shall see. Just bookmark this thread for after-election analysis.

Bros, it's practically impossible for Jonathan to edge Buhari in Kaduna. In fact, the margin this time would be higher than that of 2011 in favour of Buhari. Don't forget that most people dumped the PDP in Kaduna after the Primaries. Don't forget that Kaduna is Buhari's State of Residence. Thus, he's highly respected over there.

In 2011, Jonathan had 1,190,179 representing 46.31% Votes in Kaduna, while Buhari had 1,334,244 representing 51.92% of the total valid Votes. With the happenings in Kaduna presently, you do not need a soothsayer to tell you that Buhari will clear there!

donphilopus:


Bros, it's practically impossible for Jonathan to edge Buhari in Kaduna. In fact, the margin this time would be higher than that of 2011 in favour of Buhari. Don't forget that most people dumped the PDP in Kaduna after the Primaries. Don't forget that Kaduna is Buhari's State of Residence. Thus, he's highly respected over there.

In 2011, Jonathan had 1,190,179 representing 46.31% Votes in Kaduna, while Buhari had 1,334,244 representing 51.92% of the total valid Votes. With the happenings in Kaduna presently, you do not need a soothsayer to tell you that Buhari will clear there!

My bad then. Thanks for the inputs!

PassingShot:


That is also good news then.

sure boss

chukwudi44:


What are they planning? Apc are always known to shout rigging whenever they lose

Is it conceivable for PDP to get 5.9 million votes in Lagos? If saying that does not represent the plan to rig, what will then?

Kenai:
Laugh wan tear my belle o!

Buhari having 200,000+ votes in Anambra?
Chai! Sorry, but Buhari will not have up to 8,000 votes in Anambra.

And not just that, even "Invalid" will score more votes than Buhari in the East.

So you will prefer I give 100% of the votes in Anambra (or even the whole of SE/SS) to Jonathan? If I do that, it should also be OK to give same amount of votes in the NW and NE to Buhari and see the outcome as well.

chukwudi44:
Buhari cannot even get up to 25% in Edo let alone winning the state. Buhari cannot win nassarawa and taraba state either.Buhari would not get up to 10% in any state of the se.Fayose is in complete control of ekitistate. Besides APC has repeatedly insulted ekiti voters after their last defeat, expect payback.

Mark my words, none of the candidates will secure up to 60% of the votes in Lagos and kadunna states. The cosmopolitan and religious make up of this states would make that impossible

How many times would I tell you to come to Edo and see the reality on the ground before telling us what would happen here?! I've told you times without number that the NASS Polls would determine who wins Edo in Presidential. Presently, Samson Osagie of APC has taken over Edo South (Benin), while Matthew Uroghide has not even started anything. Now tell me, can you tell an old wo/man to vote Osagie for Senate, and in Presidential s/he should vote Jonathan?! 60 - 70% of the Voters (are uneducated and) would vote one party at all polls, that's, Reps, Senatorial and Presidential. If the Election were to hold differently, then GEJ would have had an edge over Buhari. But as it stands now, Buhari would clear Edo (55:45). Only Edo Central (Esan) is where PDP can boast of (which is the smallest of the 3).

If you still feel Buhari would not have up to 25% of Votes in Edo, then try bet with your money and see what would happen come February!

Why are some so disconnected from reality? The only state Buhari might win this time around is Kwara. 2011 will repeat itself.

APC won't get up to 1000 votes in all the 5 SE states combined. Rochas might still win Imo Gubernatorial election but that would be because of his personality and not APC. No well breastfed Igbo would vote for Buhari, only the brainwashed, money driven and naive ones.


I can't speak for Edo, but they would be further alienating themselves from SS if they follow the path of their Yoruba cousins, seeing as geographically, they are not really in SS, but for now are politically entwined with SS, they don't want to change that now, cos they can't still claim to be SS if they allow themselves to be used to sabotage a SS president. Any thing less than 80% vote for GEJ from Edo would send a strong message, as to where they truly belong.


Obj was a bad president, but Yorubas killed AD to get him returned to Aso rock.

Judging from the political atmosphere in Kaduna, jonathan does not stand a chance to win.

PassingShot:


I don't see any reason why GEJ will win Lagos. I agree he will perform reasonably well here but Tinubu and Fashola will deliver Lagos to Buhari.

In other SW states, Buhari will still edge him based on what we see and hear from those states.

Ogbeni ma ṣe idajọ a iwe nipa awọn oniwe-ideri Irẹ,

Don't judge a book by its cover o

Sodiq3:
Judging from the political atmosphere in Kaduna, jonathan does not stand a chance to win.

Yeah! So I was informed earlier.

Complimento

In Nigeria a sitting president has never been voted out, no matter what buhari does legally or illegally he will not win come 2015

Ekiti and Ondo definitely not sure for APC
And Lagos is soo unpredictable

I read that stat and can't stop laughing..... cos Lagos is under APC government means buhari will automatically win the state?.... BULLSHIT

john6006:
Election cancelled....after two days of voting....typical june 12 result......
watch out....

Exactly my thought too if this cums into reality

searay:
The problem of my village can not be solved in 6 years from now. In order words, the problemssssssssss of Nigeria can not be solved in the next 7 years. Therefore GMB is not the Messiah.
GEJ till 2099

The problems with Nigeria never be solved. Many of the problems are systemic issues with corruption and lawlessness, which have nothing to do with Jonathan.

It's like blaming Obama for all of America's issues, the people have a role to play. Let's give Goodluck 4 more years.

Most people that I know shouting Buhari are taking up inec jobs so dey won't vote

I totally agree with this prediction, the numbers and figure may not be the same with what we have here, but Bwuari will win the election come 2015.

I am a Yoruba man and I know Buhari cannot win my region with landslide


he may get Lagos but that is all

Yorubas will vote GEJ massively

I don't know about this facts and logistics here but I believe Jonathan will win.

Op but GMB and GEJ are not the only presidential aspirants we have na. What about that woman (can't remember her name) me n my household will vote 4 her.

Heaven knows where you got your wrong figures of registered voters from

PassingShot:
This exercise is an attempt to picture how the next presidential election will be won and lost.

It is based on the following factors and assumptions:

1. That there will be 80% voters turnout across the country

2. The two candidates popularity and general acceptability

3. Each party's spread and their strength in each state

4. New developments in the political terrain of a state irrespective of the party that rules the state


If you have a different view or opinion, please let's hear it.



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na which year election be dis?

PassingShot:


So, in your imagination Jonathan will win in the NE? It's certain he cannot and same goes with the SW. The North Central he will, but Buhari will record a good showing there and win Kwara, Niger and Nassaraw.

I have been very conservative with Buhari's figures including his stronghold NW hence you don't see 90% win percentage even in his own state.

And I have assumed the reasonable maximum for GEJ in his stronghold of the SS with 90% of the votes in Bayelsa.

The fact is GEJ is gone come Feb. 2015

Buhari cannot win Kwara or Niger

Buhari will win but Jonatha will rig it, and it will cause panic and chaos and riot and war eventually,and naija divides,before then,I dey bervely hills USA, I go dey watch una war on usa news
My own prediction

OP ur prediction to me is more of an halucinationa...the real thing isTo some of you these post may be the joke of the year but please don't be ignorant of it. Everyone is entitled to his/her opinion. Here are the results below:
APC= 18,534,036 votes
PDP= 23,001,629 votes
Over 3% of the registered voters will be invalid. These result will spark (as usual) post election crisis in some states. The violence will be worst than the 2011 post election crisis but the goodnews is that Nigeria will not breakup. As for the states that were mostly affected your guess is as good as mine.
Here are the states with the highest no. Of votes for these parties:
Abia- PDP
Adamawa- PDP
Akwa Ibom-PDP
Anambra-PDP
Bauchi-APC
Bayelsa-PDP
Benue-PDP
Borno-APC
Cross river-PDP
Delta-PDP
Ebonyi-PDP
Edo-PDP
Ekiti-PDP
Enugu-PDP
Gombe-PDP
Imo-PDP
Jigawa-APC
Kaduna-APC
Kano-APC
Katsina-APC
Kebbi-APC
Kogi-PDP
Kwara-APC
Lagos-APC
Nassarawa-APC
Niger-APC
Ogun-APC
Ondo-PDP
Osun-APC
Oyo-PDP
Plateau-PDP
Rivers-PDP
Sokoto-APC
Taraba-PDP
Yobe-APC
Zamfara-APC
FCT-PDP
Some of the results from a few states were almost tied.

thegoodone2:
Good prediction. but i disagree with you about kogi state. Buhari will win the state. And what happen to North west? strong hold of Buhari is North west.

Exactly. I'm from Kogi State.