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2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome - Politics (3) - Nairaland

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Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by kingthreat(m): 12:46pm On Dec 24, 2014
john6006:
Election cancelled....after two days of voting....typical june 12 result......
watch out....

Then CHAOS REIGNS
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Orikinla(m): 12:47pm On Dec 24, 2014
OP, you're almost 100% correct. But GEJ cannot win North Central.
Power has already changed hands in that region.
APC will win most of the states there.
Many close aides and associates of GEJ who know me have been made dumbfounded by the information I exchanged with them.
Two things will make GEJ lose the presidential election.
Corruption and national insecurity.
His administration is brazenly corrupt and the Commander-in-Chief is totally clueless about the facts on the war against Boko Haram.
He is even too scared to visit the troops in combat and ignorant of the Nigerian Army Order of Battle.
See http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/nigeria/army-orbat.htm.
He is the most incompetent Commander-in-Chief in the history of Nigeria.

6 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by BlackHuman(m): 12:49pm On Dec 24, 2014
john6006:
Election cancelled....after two days of voting....typical june 12 result......
watch out....
and who's going to cancel it?
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Orikinla(m): 12:50pm On Dec 24, 2014
yuncka:
Nigerian vote wisely, four years is to big to languish in poverty and insecurity....VOTe CHANGE!
Majority of Nigerians are suffering.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Orikinla(m): 12:51pm On Dec 24, 2014
donphilopus:


Bros, it's practically impossible for Jonathan to edge Buhari in Kaduna. In fact, the margin this time would be higher than that of 2011 in favour of Buhari. Don't forget that most people dumped the PDP in Kaduna after the Primaries. Don't forget that Kaduna is Buhari's State of Residence. Thus, he's highly respected over there.

In 2011, Jonathan had 1,190,179 representing 46.31% Votes in Kaduna, while Buhari had 1,334,244 representing 51.92% of the total valid Votes. With the happenings in Kaduna presently, you do not need a soothsayer to tell you that Buhari will clear there!

You are right.

2 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Kenai: 12:51pm On Dec 24, 2014
PassingShot:


So you will prefer I give 100% of the votes in Anambra (or even the whole of SE/SS) to Jonathan? If I do that, it should also be OK to give same amount of votes in the NW and NE to Buhari and see the outcome as well.


Slow it down, homey. I didn't state my "wish". I merely stated a fact.
Buhari will not get 5 figures in Anambra, and that's the truth.
Nothing personal here.

7 Likes 1 Share

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by naijasaints: 12:51pm On Dec 24, 2014
Jonathan cant win imo and kogi.Also he only going to get 25% in all northern state.
Jonathan has lost 2015 election and he knows.

1 Like 1 Share

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by chimchim1(m): 12:52pm On Dec 24, 2014
I think this is not just a prediction but doctored result from INEC. We need to investigate and probe the OP and the figures.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by BlackHuman(m): 12:52pm On Dec 24, 2014
psucc:
Well articulated. The prediction may not be far from reality.

But South West will spring surprises. Even in Lagos,GEJ may win convincingly.
Except a miracle happens , GEJ won't win a single western state.

2 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 12:52pm On Dec 24, 2014
donphilopus:


How many times would I tell you to come to Edo and see the reality on the ground before telling us what would happen here?! I've told you times without number that the NASS Polls would determine who wins Edo in Presidential. Presently, Samson Osagie of APC has taken over Edo South (Benin), while Matthew Uroghide has not even started anything. Now tell me, can you tell an old wo/man to vote Osagie for Senate, and in Presidential s/he should vote Jonathan?! 60 - 70% of the Voters (are uneducated and) would vote one party at all polls, that's, Reps, Senatorial and Presidential. If the Election were to hold differently, then GEJ would have had an edge over Buhari. But as it stands now, Buhari would clear Edo (55:45). Only Edo Central (Esan) is where PDP can boast of (which is the smallest of the 3).

If you still feel Buhari would not have up to 25% of Votes in Edo, then try bet with your money and see what would happen come February!
You are very stupid to submit that abt 65% of the voters are uneducated. Do u have any data to validate that. South is not northern Nigeria.

4 Likes 1 Share

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by toblosky(m): 12:52pm On Dec 24, 2014
I nearly choke laughing when I saw the number of votes Buhari got in Anambara state 200k and something when he got 3k and something last time. This post had really made my day,I was about asking for my Xmas present from seun but this is more than enough. Taught they say GEJ is the only clueless human being. If Buhari campaign camp is this clueless, I wonder how the general reasoning would be though his only campaign manifesto is to stabilize oil price and eliminate kworruption grin grin

6 Likes 1 Share

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 12:52pm On Dec 24, 2014
[size=18pt]Picture of OP while he slept last night after taking "Amatem"[/size]


OP...please get well soon.

9 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 12:52pm On Dec 24, 2014
tomakint:

Lagos, Edo, Oyo etc Your calculations on Northwest aggregate votes is laughable; 10 million (for Buhari) to 4 million (for Jonathan) shocked shocked are u kidding me? FYI, elections will pan out along the strength of party members and those with their PVCs! Be guided cool Fact is Buhari can never win 15 States let alone 22 So Ondo and Ekiti will be won by Buhari?
bros,u don't understand anything about SW voting systerm, the ppl don't vote for party rather candidate. PDP won Ekiti and Ondo election does not mean that they are going to vote for pdp in the presidential election.

7 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by dollarlander: 12:54pm On Dec 24, 2014
Jonathan cannot win this election. The registered voters from SW alone is equivalent to registered voters in SS & SE. 14million voters.

Already NE & NW belong to Buhari. Jonathan cannot win in Kaduna remember katsina, where buhari came from, was part of formal Kaduna and GMB enjoys their support also.

Even if there's 100% turn out from SE, SS, they are only competing with SW.

The NC case will be amazing as Jonathan will loose massively. He failed to defend the effect of boko haram that its operations had rippled effects on thousands of soldiers who have died because of cluelessness of GEJ.

many of the soldiers that died are from NC for they constitute the larger number of Nigerian army. The families of the bereaved ones are already spreading the news of lack of will on the part of Jonathan and his inability to stop boko haram and this will lead to killing of more soldiers.

So I see Jonathan massively loosing this election.
He can only win the entire SE & SS excluding Edo state. So the victory is going to be landslide for GMB.

#GMB2015#

5 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by deletrue: 12:54pm On Dec 24, 2014
Kenai:
Laugh wan tear my belle o!

Buhari having 200,000+ votes in Anambra?
Chai! Sorry, but Buhari will not have up to 8,000 votes in Anambra.

And not just that, even "Invalid" will score more votes than Buhari in the East.
Why you mind those jobless and day dreamers. Even in rivers and Edo

3 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by ceejay80s(m): 12:55pm On Dec 24, 2014
obowunmi:



The problems with Nigeria never be solved. Many of the problems are systemic issues with corruption and lawlessness, which have nothing to do with Jonathan.

It's like blaming Obama for all of America's issues, the people have a role to play. Let's give Goodluck 4 more years.
My friend go chop grind pepper, give him 4 more years make he suck naija dry like Sahara desert?

6 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by BlackHuman(m): 12:56pm On Dec 24, 2014
psucc:
Well articulated. The prediction may not be far from reality.

But South West will spring surprises. Even in Lagos,GEJ may win convincingly.
Which SWest are u talking about?- are u sure it's d same SWest i'm living in?- because Jonathan can't win here o based on the reality on ground.

5 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by mamajohn(f): 12:57pm On Dec 24, 2014
tomakint:

Lagos, Edo, Oyo etc Your calculations on Northwest aggregate votes is laughable; 10 million (for Buhari) to 4 million (for Jonathan) shocked shocked are u kidding me? FYI, elections will pan out along the strength of party members and those with their PVCs! Be guided cool Fact is Buhari can never win 15 States let alone 22 So Ondo and Ekiti will be won by Buhari?
I have said it here before that the greatest problem of GEJ in Ondo State is the governor of the state Dr Olusegun Mimiko. The people of Ondo State has since left the governor because of his attitude, the people are eagerly waiting for the general election to pay the governor back for his deceits
If GEJ can find a way of managing the governor and relate with the old PDP members in the state, he might win but for the governor to spearhead his campaigns, doom beckons
Buhari's popularity is growing phenomenally at the moment

2 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Bimffo(m): 12:58pm On Dec 24, 2014
I dont like GMB, but the man named GEJ aint getting my Vote.. I will rather vote for the devil than give Jonathan my Vote..

And Forget it SW is GMB.. Jonathan wont get anything here..

7 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by PassingShot(m): 12:59pm On Dec 24, 2014
scribble:


Buhari cannot win Kwara or Niger


Those two states are even more certain than Ondo and Ekiti. Kwara is controlled by APC with high population of Muslims and Saraki's factor while he has strong followership in Niger.

2 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by tomakint: 12:59pm On Dec 24, 2014
BlackHuman:
Except a miracle happens , GEJ won't win a single western state.
Kai! You are not really black but dark upstairs.....please allow some light..
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by warpedlogician: 12:59pm On Dec 24, 2014
Hahahahahaha
Buhari wins 40% of votes in benue and kogi
Buhari wins edo.
Buhari wins Ondo and Ekiti
Buhari wins 25% of votes in Imo and rivers.
This is pure comedy!!!!!!!!!!!

7 Likes 2 Shares

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by BlackHuman(m): 12:59pm On Dec 24, 2014
chukwudi44:


Bros the circumstances have changed, go the streets and interview the market women and okada riders. PDP does not need rigging to win Lagos.

Ikorodu is in complete lockdown, nothing for Apc there at all
Put off ur rose tinted glasses.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by esere826: 1:00pm On Dec 24, 2014
PassingShot:


I don't see any reason why GEJ will win Lagos. I agree he will perform reasonably well here but Tinubu and Fashola will deliver Lagos to Buhari.

In other SW states, Buhari will still edge him based on what we see and hear from those states.

What does deliver mean?
does it mean convince voters, or does it mean influence the results?
........please explain

2 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by icelord(m): 1:00pm On Dec 24, 2014
searay:
The problem of my village can not be solved in 6 years from now. In order words, the problemssssssssss of Nigeria can not be solved in the next 7 years. Therefore GMB is not the Messiah.
GEJ till 2099
u are probably the problem of Ur village, and the problem of Ur village won't be solved till u die... So die quick nigga

11 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by icelord(m): 1:00pm On Dec 24, 2014
searay:
The problem of my village can not be solved in 6 years from now. In order words, the problemssssssssss of Nigeria can not be solved in the next 7 years. Therefore GMB is not the Messiah.
GEJ till 2099
u are probably the problem of Ur village, and the problem of Ur village won't be solved till u die... So die quick nigga

Don't bother quoting me,, I won't reply

1 Like

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by wabuk(m): 1:01pm On Dec 24, 2014
All the federal civil servant will vote for buhari. He treated us badly in terms of salary increament. For instant we are still on strike for d past 2months ( heath workers)

2 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 1:01pm On Dec 24, 2014
scribble:
I am a Yoruba man and I know Buhari cannot win my region with landslide


he may get Lagos but that is all

Yorubas will vote GEJ massively
You must be high on cow poo to think Yorubas will vote GEJ massively.

4 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Moheat(m): 1:01pm On Dec 24, 2014
Good prediction! but i dont think GMB can win Edo State+ don't forget is a south-south state.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Kenai: 1:02pm On Dec 24, 2014
tomakint:
The funniest of them all; 'Buhari wins in 22 States.......' I swear Passingshot is high ...... grin grin

His name should be changed to "PassingBlunt" if you know what I mean. grin

3 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by warpedlogician: 1:02pm On Dec 24, 2014
dollarlander:
Jonathan cannot win this election. The registered voters from SW alone is equivalent to registered voters in SS & SE. 14million voters.

Already NE & NW belong to Buhari. Jonathan cannot win in Kaduna remember katsina, where buhari came from, was part of formal Kaduna and GMB enjoys their support also.

Even if there's 100% turn out from SE, SS, they are only competing with SW.

The NC case will be amazing as Jonathan will loose massively. He failed to defend the effect of boko haram that its operations had rippled effects on thousands of soldiers who have died because of cluelessness of GEJ.

many of the soldiers that died are from NC for they constitute the larger number of Nigerian army. The families of the bereaved ones are already spreading the news of lack of will on the part of Jonathan and his inability to stop boko haram and this will lead to killing of more soldiers.

So I see Jonathan massively loosing this election.
He can only win the entire SE & SS excluding Edo state. So the victory is going to be landslide for GMB.

#GMB2015#


Hahahahaha
Voter turnout is different from registered voters.
See this one calculating with registered voters.
Hahahahahahah.
Kai. I will so laugh in February
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by PassingShot(m): 1:02pm On Dec 24, 2014
Nazacent:
OP ur prediction to me is more of an halucinationa...the real thing isTo some of you these post may be the joke of the year but please don't be ignorant of it. Everyone is entitled to his/her opinion. Here are the results below:
APC= 18,534,036 votes
PDP= 23,001,629 votes
Over 3% of the registered voters will be invalid. These result will spark (as usual) post election crisis in some states. The violence will be worst than the 2011 post election crisis but the goodnews is that Nigeria will not breakup. As for the states that were mostly affected your guess is as good as mine.
Here are the states with the highest no. Of votes for these parties:
Abia- PDP
Adamawa- PDP
Akwa Ibom-PDP
Anambra-PDP
Bauchi-APC
Bayelsa-PDP
Benue-PDP
Borno-APC
Cross river-PDP
Delta-PDP
Ebonyi-PDP
Edo-PDP
Ekiti-PDP
Enugu-PDP
Gombe-PDP
Imo-PDP
Jigawa-APC
Kaduna-APC
Kano-APC
Katsina-APC
Kebbi-APC
Kogi-PDP
Kwara-APC
Lagos-APC
Nassarawa-APC
Niger-APC
Ogun-APC
Ondo-PDP
Osun-APC
Oyo-PDP
Plateau-PDP
Rivers-PDP
Sokoto-APC
Taraba-PDP
Yobe-APC
Zamfara-APC
FCT-PDP
Some of the results from a few states were almost tied.

If mine is hallucination with more objective figures and based on what is happening on the grounds, what will yours that is only fixing party name in front of states be then?

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