Nigerians and Assumptions , Even the US Riggs Election and for an incumbent president he is 80% Likely to be elected back ... with the analysis is not what is on ground in this states , Northern's have more people in this present Government than any other Region in Nigeria , Buhari will win some states but some Old men still controlling the economy in directly wont allow Buhari.. All i am praying for is the after math of the elections because if not being managed well ... there will be serious crisis from the South to the North....

seconded! this is a good analysis but GEJ can never ever win kaduna.

scribble:
I am a Yoruba man and I know Buhari cannot win my region with landslide


he may get Lagos but that is all

Yorubas will vote GEJ massively

U are wat? Yoruba man? U ve lost ur identity and i pray u find it soon. But in a situation whereby u are right, then Obviously, u are one of the few that run after crumbs from uncle jonah, and i put it to u that u are nothing but selfish!!!!!!!!!!! Not only massively, even aggresively, nonsense. As if southwest is part of your extended family......

atlwireles:
Why are some so disconnected from reality? The only state Buhari might win this time around is Kwara. 2011 will repeat itself.

2011 repeat itself?....After this disastrous, terrible previous 4yrs?....The truth is jonathan has lost all the popularity he had going into the 2011 elections. The only thing he's hanging on rightnow is the Tribal-Sentiments and that won't be enough....The whole "I'm a good guy", "underdog","I had no shoes", "They want to victimise me", "Turai won't leave", "Aondaka","Pity me" Sentimental narrative is gone.

PassingShot:


I know Kaduna is a close call but I still think Jonathan will edge it based on that fact you mentioned and the fact of the Southern Kaduna. We shall see. Just bookmark this thread for after-election analysis.

I bet you have never been to kaduna, the southern kaduna you mentioned are not up to one third of kaduans population,get your facts right.

rufdyamond:
@OP buhari to strike out all 6states in South West including Ekiti with Gov Fayose....re u based in ghana or what?....take my words buhari will not win out in the other two major ethnic regions SE and SW but lagos...and also states like Niger and jigawa.re strong PDP states and dat gives it to GEJ
Lemme correct u here; substract 3 SW from buhari and add to jonathan plus jigawa and Niger states that gives u 20states includin FCT and what is left for buhari is 17.....
Uneven deceptive Population of the north and violence will make it close but GEJ will carry the day...need I remind of the word incumbent??....which gives him the right to rig even more to his favour...at the end buhari go continue with him boko boys...

You re wrong about jigawa and Niger state even in FCT I know very well that PDP will not win the presidential election in those states, the mood on the ground does not suggest any support for the incumbent however they may pull a surprise though.
Don't consider the party of the governor cos it does not matter in the north. I was in bauchi in the last election and PDP deputy governor in bauchi state voted for CPC in my presence.

BlackHuman:
2011 repeat itself?....After this disastrous, terrible previous 4yrs?....The truth is jonathan has lost all the popularity he had going into the 2011 elections. The only thing he's hanging on rightnow is the Tribal-Sentiments and that's won't be enough....The whole "I'm a good guy", "underdog","I had no shoes", "They want to victimise me", "Aondaka","Pity me" Sentimental narrative is gone.

The same tribal sentiments you are spewing here . 2015, will play out in the same fashion as 2011. We are still talking of Nigeria.

yuncka:
Nigerian vote wisely, four years is to big to languish in poverty and insecurity....VOTe CHANGE!

Buhari can never win ekiti

Firefire:
South West vote 64% for Buhari


May be you have not heard of Yoruba sophistication ?


Forget the APC media noise ooooo


The D Result of 2015 Election in South West and Nigeria will shock the world.


I pray God help us stop the bloody campaign of the serial loser

nothing will shock the world,Jonathan cannot have 10% in osun...I don't know about ekiti oo,but ekiti people I know hate Jonathan and applaud fayose

ibmmusty:



I bet you have never been to kaduna, the southern kaduna you mentioned are not up to one third of kaduans population,get your facts right.

I've never been there. I relied on the fact that Sambo is from there only. However, from what I've read here, Buhari should win that state.

chukwudi44:
Buhari cannot even get up to 25% in Edo

Buhari wins Edo but it will be close.

PassingShot:


There you go again ascribing election violence to the man.

Debate the topic and forget sentiment please.

That's the point. I debate TOPICS! NOT DREAMS

chukwudi44:


Bros the circumstances have changed, go the streets and interview the market women and okada riders. PDP does not need rigging to win Lagos.

This position is what's giving PDP confidence of winning Lagos, but IMHO it is false hope. The street traders and okada riders are actually in the minority (almost insignificant) in Lagos. I once asked an okadaman in Ikorodu to tell me his honest opinion which is more between okada and private cars and he replied "private cars". I also asked him how he thought the okada riders will out-vote the others who are happy with restrictions placed on okada operations and he became dumb.
At least half the population of okada riders in ikorodu are not going to vote in Lagos.

Ikorodu is in complete lockdown, nothing for Apc there at all

I think you're just dreaming. Most people I know who don't want APC here are resolved not to vote for Jonathan. In fact many of them shout GMB more than the APC supporters.

I agree with you on who will win in all but Kaduna and Edo. I think GEJ will clinch Edo while Buhari will clinch Kaduna.

I also slightly disagree with the percentages.

Lagos is a tight one, but I have given APC 57%, PDP 43% in an analysis I did elsewhere.

Your 80% turnout is however far from realistic. No presidential election has seen more than 60% turn-out in Nigeria. 2015 won't be different, if not worse.

chukwudi44:
Buhari cannot even get up to 25% in Edo let alone winning the state. Buhari cannot win nassarawa and taraba state either.Buhari would not get up to 10% in any state of the se.Fayose is in complete control of ekitistate. Besides APC has repeatedly insulted ekiti voters after their last defeat, expect payback.

Mark my words, none of the candidates will secure up to 60% of the votes in Lagos and kadunna states. The cosmopolitan and religious make up of this states would make that impossible

buhari will win nassarawa.. He won there 2011

I pray we all live to see the day


Change is COMING!


I'm very sure

warpedlogician:
Hahahahahaha
Buhari wins 40% of votes in benue and kogi
Buhari wins edo.
Buhari wins Ondo and Ekiti
Buhari wins 25% of votes in Imo and rivers.
This is pure comedy!!!!!!!!!!!

I JUST DEY LAFF TOO

Buhari supporter who posted is indeed one of those dreamers. The report is only a wish but cannot be a horse. There is no way Buhari can beat Jonathan, Lagos has 47 % Ibos how can Buhari win in Lagos. Because of Buhari Ibos cannot vote APC in Lagos. And APC cannot rig it in their favour.

Mowire:


This position is what's giving PDP confidence of winning Lagos, but IMHO it is false hope. The street traders and okada riders are actually in the minority (almost insignificant) in Lagos. I once asked an okadaman in Ikorodu to tell me his honest opinion which is more between okada and private cars and he replied "private cars". I also asked him how he thought the okada riders will out-vote the others who are happy with restrictions placed on okada operations and he became dumb.
At least half the population of okada riders in ikorodu are not going to vote in Lagos.



I think you're just dreaming. Most people I know who don't want APC here are resolved not to vote for Jonathan. In fact many of them shout GMB more than the APC supporters.

Some people also forget that majority of the Okada riders are abokis who are having Buhari stickers on their Okada already!

Alphonsocapone:
seconded! this is a good analysis but GEJ can never ever win kaduna.

I've agreed to that too. I just don't want to tweak it.

PassingShot:


No. Not rigging. By convincing voters to vote and by making the votes count.

The only party I suspect rigging in Lagos is PDP based on their pledge to deliver 5.9 million votes to Jonathan. Now that is what you call "planning to rig".

WTF?

TThe other party will not convince voters too. People like you may even join APC in rigging and thereafter come here to pontificate.

To you, APC don't rig elections but only a fool will believe and keep saying it.

chukwudi44:
Buhari cannot even get up to 25% in Edo let alone winning the state. Buhari cannot win nassarawa and taraba state either.Buhari would not get up to 10% in any state of the se.Fayose is in complete control of ekitistate. Besides APC has repeatedly insulted ekiti voters after their last defeat, expect payback.

Mark my words, none of the candidates will secure up to 60% of the votes in Lagos and kadunna states. The cosmopolitan and religious make up of this states would make that impossible

Let me tell u what u don't know about ekiti state,among my frnds and associates that voted for fayose hardly have I seen any of them telling me that they will vote for oga jona,all they tell me is about how clueless Oga Jona is....while they keep saying they will vote for GMB......also here in osun state,majority of those who voted for pdp in last election would not vote for them come feb 14.....same in lagos,oyo......If anybody is saying buhari would not see up to 6000 vote in east I guess it will be also difficult for Oga jona to see up to. 2000vote in north..........
I see GMB winning the next election only if there is no massive rigging by the PDP.......

Sure win 4 buhari!! Oyo!! Lagos!! Osun!! Edo!! Imo!!! Borno!! Rivers!! Kano!! All d terrorised states!! All northwestern states!! D rest nah battle with jonathan!!! Gmb for 2015

Newshunter:
Buhari supporter who posted is indeed one of those dreamers. The report is only a wish but cannot be a horse. There is no way Buhari can beat Jonathan, Lagos has 47 % Ibos how can Buhari win in Lagos. Because of Buhari Ibos cannot vote APC in Lagos. And APC cannot rig it in their favour.

Lagos has 47% Ibos? Effectively meaning they're more than Yorubas in Lagos, because non-Igbos, non-Yorubas cannot be less than 7%!

Smh.

orimsamsam:
. Tink the vice versa will take place in southeast

Dream on

Progress is impossible without CHANGE, and people who cannot CHANGE their mind cannot CHANGE anything... #VoteWisely!!

I don't believe there will be surprises especially in the presidential elections. GEJ will win again else the election will be cancelled. Mark my words!

Ipledge:
nothing will shock the world,Jonathan cannot have 10% in osun...I don't know about ekiti oo,but ekiti people I know hate Jonathan and applaud fayose

It is only Osun and Ekiti we have in SW

donphilopus:


How many times would I tell you to come to Edo and see the reality on the ground before telling us what would happen here?! I've told you times without number that the NASS Polls would determine who wins Edo in Presidential. Presently, Samson Osagie of APC has taken over Edo South (Benin), while Matthew Uroghide has not even started anything. Now tell me, can you tell an old wo/man to vote Osagie for Senate, and in Presidential s/he should vote Jonathan?! 60 - 70% of the Voters (are uneducated and) would vote one party at all polls, that's, Reps, Senatorial and Presidential. If the Election were to hold differently, then GEJ would have had an edge over Buhari. But as it stands now, Buhari would clear Edo (55:45). Only Edo Central (Esan) is where PDP can boast of (which is the smallest of the 3).

If you still feel Buhari would not have up to 25% of Votes in Edo, then try bet with your money and see what would happen come February!

you keep repeating same mistake Edo might be apc on state level but on federal level it is Jonathan.

mind you am on ground in Edo state.

Frankly, I cannot put my money on Buhari winning, but I know this is going to be most neck to neck presidential election in Nigerian history.

tomakint:

I think Tinubu and Fashola has a lot to worry about delivering Lagos for APC in this forthcoming Gubernatorial elections because Agbaje is not smiling...as for Presidential, APC will kiss the canvas.

totally agree.