If only the S/E can vote GMB, there would be significant dynamism in the country. Vote for change, eschew clueless and incompetent leaders


Sai GMB 2015!

BlackHuman:
In 2011, Jonathan looked like a better option to buhari especially to most Neutrals(in which most SWesterners are in dis setup)....But now he's gone into office for four years and totally failed to perform, he has dissapointed many people and he doesn't cut image of some1 who can handle current problems in the country- Most of the people OR a significant chunk of people who voted for him in 2011 won't be doing so again in 2015, the same cannot be said for buhari- because most of those who voted buhari in 2011 are even more pumped-up to do so again now dat victory seems a more possible reality- add dat to the "converts" from jonathan......I think main difference is dat Jonathan has unfortunately proven to be a failure- whereas Buhari loyals can still constructively argue for his case, since he hasn't being tried and failed or atleast not failed up to Jonathan's extent.......GEJ messed it up for himself, he could have had an easy run for 2nd term.if he had done his job well or atleast averagely well. but he went in and totally flopped it- The whole subsidy stuff, the Presidential Pardons, Stella Oduah, e.t.c- add dat to the B.Haram problem which looks totally like somtin beyond his competence.....You don't fail dis much in dis fragile, highly sensitive country and expect to just walk in back again. I think GEJ should have come at another time. Maybe when the country is a lot more stable with lesser problems- but these problems seem too big for him to handle.

Well spoken...your words carry weight.

tomakint:

Lagos, Edo, Oyo etc Your calculations on Northwest aggregate votes is laughable; 10 million (for Buhari) to 4 million (for Jonathan) are u kidding me? FYI, elections will pan out along the strength of party members and those with their PVCs! Be guided Fact is Buhari can never win 15 States let alone 22 So Ondo and Ekiti will be won by Buhari?

Lol. looks like u don't know What's going on. buhari will win convincingly in all the states in the sw except ekiti Where He'll record a marginal win. Apc will sweep sw and north west. It's a certainty!

*smh* any body can dream , but this post only shows what APC represents , a Violence inciting party , its the youth that are being used that I pity

tufiakwa!!!! Op back to the sender

tomakint:

Lagos, Edo, Oyo etc Your calculations on Northwest aggregate votes is laughable; 10 million (for Buhari) to 4 million (for Jonathan) are u kidding me? FYI, elections will pan out along the strength of party members and those with their PVCs! Be guided Fact is Buhari can never win 15 States let alone 22 So Ondo and Ekiti will be won by Buhari?

u dey mind d guy, its like na paid troll tryng to justify his income.
apc be like chelsea fans always winning matches before its been played.
14feb is like less than 7weeks frm now, lets wait n c what d future holds.
passingshot r u d new nostradamus?

searay:
The problem of my village can not be solved in 6 years from now. In order words, the problemssssssssss of Nigeria can not be solved in the next 7 years. Therefore GMB is not the Messiah.
GEJ till 2099

You will rather have one who has enriched himself at the expense of the nation, than one who has done better than him in various offices including the number one office of this nation.... Mehn poverty gives some peps joy ooo

For those who want to contribute to Buhari Campain. here is the account. First Bank account number: 2026724405. Account Name: BUHARI SUPPORT ORGANISATION
Minimum contribution is hundred naira

HERE IN IMO.

WE HAVEN'T HEARD ABOUT THE NAME BUHARI

PassingShot:


Based on your point, we should not expect a turnout of more than 65%. But based on the fact that our political parties are known to inflate figures to be able to justify their rigging I have stuck with the 80% voters turnout. Can you even imagine that Lagos PDP have already promised Jonathan 5.9 million votes out of 6.2 million registered voters! That tells you what they plan.

Good one, but in any case I dont expect a total vote of 53millions plus however it could be around 33millions.

poiZon:









u dey mind d guy, its like na paid troll tryng to justify his income.
apc be like chelsea fans always winning matches before its been played.
14feb is like less than 7weeks frm now, lets wait n c what d future holds.
passingshot r u d new nostradamus?

Hey mister, I just give my opinion based on factors I think will shape the election. If I were you and I don't like the figures, I'd sit down and do something similar with some justifications. So, no need to resort to name-calling!

Wrong analysis,please check the last election results for more accuracy

dis Prediction is 80% Impossible.....! how can Buhari wins Taraba d total no. of voters in PH is up to 2million ....e.t.c

There are fundamental issues many of us have not taken note of:
1. The votes GEJ got in SE and SS in 2011 were not reflective of voters that came out to vote, rather those figures were made up by massive rigging (multiple thumb printing) because the opposition had no body on ground in those regions.
2. The Presidential election was conducted alone in 2011 unlike what will happen in 2015, where it will be with the national assembly.
3.In every state come 2015 there will be locals contesting for seats in the national assembly in APC , PDP and other parties.
4. Elections will be keenly contested in all states and there may not be room for manipulation of the presidential votes.
5.From the fore-going, GEJ may not get those million votes of SS and SE as it was in 2011.
6. Remember that in 2015 election, for every polling unit, the total votes cast for national assembly must equal that of the presidential,anything to the contrary will suggest rigging.

So these are the peculiarities of 2015 election.

john6006:
Election cancelled....after two days of voting....typical june 12 result......
watch out....

I swear , you are a genius .

tomakint:

Oh my bad.....but how dare you say, Jonathan may not win a single State in SW what about Ondo, Ekiti, Oyo and Lagos you think Buhari stand a chance? Think my brother think.....

The only reason GEJ won 5 SW states in 2011 is because Tinubu sold out to him. That is not going to happen this time around. GEJ's incompetence is another motivation for SWeners to dump his sorry harse. When you throw Osinbajo into d mix u ll realise how sorry GEJ's situation really is.

chukwudi44:


Bros the circumstances have changed, go the streets and interview the market women and okada riders. PDP does not need rigging to win Lagos.

Ikorodu is in complete lockdown, nothing for Apc there at all

Hmmm, election results do not usually go the way of some random interviews of market women and okada riders, bro. Experience has shown that elections could be won with religious sentiments, tribal affiliation, and MONEY! These same so-called okada riders and market women would vote the part that 'can pay' on lection day! It is not as simple as you've made it out...

I have had instances of a Local Govt Chairman being stoned at campaign rallies and at the end of the day, he won convincingly!

Before the 2011 elections, the majority of Niger State people vowed not to vote Muazu Babangida Aliyu as Governor as he was a complete let down; but what happened? He won. During the recent Niger East Senatorial elections held in September-October(following the death of the PDP Senator at the time), most constituents vowed to vote out PDP and vote the APC man because the late PDP Senator was a complete failure. What happened? It was a very, very close (even very controversial) contest but the PDP won!

You cannot wish away the power of incumbency, pre-election turn-around, money, etc.

tomakint:

I think Tinubu and Fashola has a lot to worry about delivering Lagos for APC in this forthcoming Gubernatorial elections because Agbaje is not smiling...as for Presidential, APC will kiss the canvas.

tin tomato/tomakint...Agbaje may not be smiling now, but on dat day, he would see pipu dat drank yoyo bitter mixed with aloe vera and lime...

idongesit88:
In Nigeria a sitting president has never been voted out, no matter what buhari does legally or illegally he will not win come 2015

And how many democratically elected presidents have you had?

Jarus:
Frankly, I cannot put my money on Buhari winning, but I know this is going to be most neck to neck presidential election in Nigerian history.

It will be a landslide Suraju, in favour of the people's general.

uzolexis:
Op but GMB and GEJ are not the only presidential aspirants we have na. What about that woman (can't remember her name) me n my household will vote 4 her.

ma'am afraid ure alone in this

uzolexis:
Op but GMB and GEJ are not the only presidential aspirants we have na. What about that woman (can't remember her name) me n my household will vote 4 her.

ma'am afraid ure alone in this

Remove Edo state! Buhari Can't win that state!
I can't say who'll win! The 'Change' breeze is spreading so fast, but can it defeat the principalities and powers of PDP?

I can't just wait for February 14th!

Chuks16:
HERE IN IMO.

WE HAVEN'T HEARD ABOUT THE NAME BUHARI

How will u hear about d name Buhari wen u pple in imo state only know how to go on unwarranted holidays? I bet u pple won't resume work in d New year until March, or how many weeks did Okorocha give u pple this time?

PassingShot:


Even in 2011 GEJ didn't win Osun. So stop dreaming!

Dear God I can't believe pple still tink dis shallow...oga re u in 2011...re u living in the past??..what was the reputation of buhari in 2011 as regards 2014...u call me a dreamer I cul u a comic xter...u re soo funny nollywood needs u...I guess AC won lagos state in 2011 ryt...please tink b4 u write this yur rubbish pls...I get am b4 no be property oooo...

tomakint:

Lagos, Edo, Oyo etc Your calculations on Northwest aggregate votes is laughable; 10 million (for Buhari) to 4 million (for Jonathan) are u kidding me? FYI, elections will pan out along the strength of party members and those with their PVCs! Be guided Fact is Buhari can never win 15 States let alone 22 So Ondo and Ekiti will be won by Buhari?

Bros i'm from Ondo state and I can assure u Buhari will win my state convincingly.

Buhari win Edo state?
Op u re joking

Jarus:
Frankly, I cannot put my money on Buhari winning, but I know this is going to be most neck to neck presidential election in Nigerian history.

Exactly!
But I'm 100% sure that APC will win 2019 election! By then, all Nigerians(both sane and insane) will be tired of PDP!

homesteady:
Remove Edo state! Buhari Can't win that state!
I can't say who'll win! The 'Change' breeze is spreading so fast, but can it defeat the principalities and powers of PDP?

I can't just wait for February 14th!

Bros edo pple don't have time for prophet Jonah. Just wait nd see.

Jarus:


Lagos has 47% Ibos? Effectively meaning they're more than Yorubas in Lagos, because non-Igbos, non-Yorubas cannot be less than 7%!

Smh.

you bothered to respond to such baseless assertion. True, GEJ will secure a sizeable proportion of votes in Lagos due to the ethnic n religious sentiments that shapes most voters decision, he is unlikely to win. But he may however marginally win in Ekiti and Ondo, those states are wild cards.
Insecurity in the North East and North central will likely mean a lot of people will not vote out of fear of public gatherings, also I doubt Buhari will perform well in any SE and SS state except Edo.
On the whole GEJ will likely still edge out Buhari

[quote author=PassingShot post=29155999]This exercise is an attempt to picture how the next presidential election will be won and lost.

It is based on the following factors and assumptions:

Agree with you but...... Totally disagree wif Kogi, Rivers and Imi

PassingShot:


Those two states are even more certain than Ondo and Ekiti. Kwara is controlled by APC with high population of Muslims and Saraki's factor while he has strong followership in Niger.

Seconded Bro, i base in Minna and with d reality on ground, i don't ce PDP winning d presidential election in dis state coz we re tired, we need CHANGE

PassingShot:


So, in your imagination Jonathan will win in the NE? It's certain he cannot and same goes with the SW. The North Central he will, but Buhari will record a good showing there and win Kwara, Niger and Nassaraw.

I have been very conservative with Buhari's figures including his stronghold NW hence you don't see 90% win percentage even in his own state.

And I have assumed the reasonable maximum for GEJ in his stronghold of the SS with 90% of the votes in Bayelsa.

The fact is GEJ is gone come Feb. 2015

. Thank you! You reasonably spoke my mind. I have looked at the new realities on ground and totally agree with with. In fact, I'll say you were too conservative about GMB's popularity in northeast and northwest. There, he'll have 90% of total votes cast. GEJ cannot win Plateau, Taraba and Kogi. Jonathan would win Benue. 80% of registered voters in Lagos are Yorubas. The Igbos were 'too busy' to stand the stress of registration and so that's a plus GMB. The governors in Ondo and Ekiti would be helpless cox Jonathan has disappointed beyond redemption. Your of Kwara for Buhari too conservative.