seunfly:

You re wrong about jigawa and Niger state even in FCT I know very well that PDP will not win the presidential election in those states, the mood on the ground does not suggest any support for the incumbent however they may pull a surprise though.
Don't consider the party of the governor cos it does not matter in the north. I was in bauchi in the last election and PDP deputy governor in bauchi state voted for CPC in my presence.

I seriously like dat statement they may pull surprises....lemme tell u sumtin u guys ve failed to realize...PDP is planning seriously underground and throwing APC dirty deals to the general world with fake voters cards and all so when they unleash their plan the world would not ve a say about rigging...I ask u 2questions...what country's election re we discussing here....and pls who pays jega....brother let's be realistic and the fact remains GEJ is more credible than buhari...am not putting buhari's credibilty to doubt doh...u guys want a broke fellow to be our president again..its a pity pple like u didn't learn frm OBJ mistake...GEJ for 2015 joor

PassingShot:


Those two states are even more certain than Ondo and Ekiti. Kwara is controlled by APC with high population of Muslims and Saraki's factor while he has strong followership in Niger.

A victory for Buhari in Kwara and Niger is a no brainer. Whoever thinks otherwise must be wearing a blinker.

Akanbiedu:


It will be a landslide Suraju, in favour of the people's general.

That is my wish and prayer.

I'm just being realistic, or cautiously optimistic.

PassingShot:


So, in your imagination Jonathan will win in the NE? It's certain he cannot and same goes with the SW. The North Central he will, but Buhari will record a good showing there and win Kwara, Niger and Nassaraw.

I have been very conservative with Buhari's figures including his stronghold NW hence you don't see 90% win percentage even in his own state.

And I have assumed the reasonable maximum for GEJ in his stronghold of the SS with 90% of the votes in Bayelsa.

The fact is GEJ is gone come Feb. 2015

gej's apologists will always tel u NC is a battle-ground, how? Buhari will win in kwara, kogi, Niger, Nasarawa, benue and probably give gej a run for his money in plateau.

scribble:


u r blinded by the clamouring of an ethno religious terror sponsoring coup plotting civilian administration overthrowing cow rearer

come 2015 the wool will be wiped from your eye

Nonsense

mumu!!! i still maintain it, u are nothing but selfish, give us one major thing south west gained from this clueless adminstration that made u want to die for jonathan. Wise up....

Jarus:


That is my wish and prayer.

I'm just being realistic, or cautiously optimistic.

nice one.

Jarus:


If you think GEJ will win Jigawa, then you don't know anything about dynamics of each states in Nigeria.

He may do well due to Lamido factor (30% is still an achievement), but to ever think GEJ will defeat Buhari in Jigawa is daydreaming.

What fuckin dyanamics re u talkin about in a country like Nigeria...well you obviously realized there is a factor but neva put a percentage to that factor...this Nigeria...90days frm now I will send u a PM...

EmmyDe25:

A victory for Buhari in Kwara and Niger is a no brainer. Whoever thinks otherwise must be wearing a blinker.

No brainer at all.

I'm from Kwara.

Niger is even probably surer for Buhari. Not many people here know that even with CPC, Buhari won Niger in 2011!

agabusta:


Bros i'm from Ondo state and I can assure u Buhari will win my state convincingly.

Definitely the Ondo State in your dreams......it is on record that no Mallam as Presidential candidate had ever won on Ondo soil so Buhari will not be an exception.

rufdyamond:

What fuckin dyanamics re u talkin about in a country like Nigeria...well you obviously realized there is a factor but neva put a percentage to that factor...this Nigeria...90days frm now I will send u a PM...

Are you kidding? You think Buhari will not win Jigawa, Kano's appendage?

Caseless:
gej's apologists will always tel u NC is a battle-ground, how? Buhari will win in kwara, kogi, Niger, Nasarawa, benue and probably give gej a run for his money in plateau.

Even though I know it's possible for Buhari to win the NC, I still don't mind conceding the region to GEJ.

Midegee:
ma'am afraid ure alone in this ;Dma'am afraid ure alone in this

u will be shocked how many pple r with me on this

Caseless:
gej's apologists will always tel u NC is a battle-ground, how? Buhari will win in kwara, kogi, Niger, Nasarawa, benue and probably give gej a run for his money in plateau.

Buhari will win in benue and niger....do u pple really think this things out b4 u say them....

Nitefury:


Based on my little experience/knowledge of the political scene in Kd, APC is the party to beat. And for your info, GEJ is not as popular among the Christian community as you would want people to believe.

yes, he'll get substantial number of votes, but i see the APC clinching both the gubernatorial and presidential elections

jonather may not be popular but we Christian in the north can never forget easily the atrocities buhari statement and his supporters on lash on us after losing 2011 election. My brother the memory is still fresh to forget

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Hhmmm... This 2015 presidential election has really been giving me a thoughtful concern, in the sense that it will be mainly between two aspirants (GEJ and GMB).
As a matter of fact, it will be based on three things: religion, tribalism and choice (individual and political) with the later coming from very few voters.
Most people from SE and SS, including most Christians wants GEJ to remain as the president mainly because of his origin and religion.
GMB is wanted by most Northerners and Muslims mainly because of his origin and religion (with a belief that this will end BH insurgency).
Just few people from these classified regions actually wants the so called change from the perspective of their personal choice.
Considering the view of people from SW, those who are not religious biased (just few) are more concerned with their individual or political choice, rather than religion and tribalism. (This was concluded from my personal chats with some people from the various geopolitical zones in Nigeria).
No matter the outcome of the election, it is very glaring that there is an imminent riot waiting to rage in the country immediately the winner is aired.
I pray it doesn't lead to war, as that will lead to so many unwanted ish. Although, some are ready while some refused to prepare and they will only serve as the suffering innocents.

Jarus:


Are you kidding? You think Buhari will not win Jigawa, Kano's appendage?

I am certain he will win kano but not jigawa...u myt be kidding but am giving you facts will all things being equal....don't be sentimental...look critically b4 u talk

Jarus:


No brainer at all.

I'm from Kwara.

Niger is even probably surer for Buhari. Not many people here know that even with CPC, Buhari won Niger in 2011!

Atleast i know Kwara so well. Having had my primary and secondary education there... i know the level of power the Sarakis wield in the state. Although im still not clear as to who the Offa people are going to vote considering how they've been fighting tooth and nail to shake off the shackles of the Sakaris.

rbjimoh:
. Thank you! You reasonably spoke my mind. I have looked at the new realities on ground and totally agree with with. In fact, I'll say you were too conservative about GMB's popularity in northeast and northwest. There, he'll have 90% of total votes cast. GEJ cannot win Plateau, Taraba and Kogi. Jonathan would win Benue. 80% of registered voters in Lagos are Yorubas. The Igbos were 'too busy' to stand the stress of registration and so that's a plus GMB. The governors in Ondo and Ekiti would be helpless cox Jonathan has disappointed beyond redemption. Your of Kwara for Buhari too conservative.

I wish I can say the opposite, but Buhari cannot win Plateau. Their dislike for Fulani there is historical, from the days of Ahmadu Bello (NPC) himself.

psucc:
Well articulated. The prediction may not be far from reality.

But South West will spring surprises. Even in Lagos,GEJ may win convincingly.

Which surprises re u talking about? Has South west forgotten d subsidy cluelessness of jonathan? we have seen d best jonathan could offer now. A shoeless man dat knew he would seek re-election yet he was callous n heartless during d subsidy era.

Anyone who is interested in finding out how Nigeria's presidential elections on St. Valentine's day will play out can check out what happened in the presidential elections in France 2002 and make appropriate comparisons.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002

Happy reading & studying!

ceejay80s:

Buhari

You people should keep dreaming... let Buhari campaign in 2019. I will support him.

ceejay80s:
Buhari will win but Jonatha will rig it, and it will cause panic and chaos and riot and war eventually,and naija divides,before then,I dey bervely hills USA, I go dey watch una war on usa news
My own prediction

F O O L

rufdyamond:
@OP buhari to strike out all 6states in South West including Ekiti with Gov Fayose....re u based in ghana or what?....take my words buhari will not win out in the other two major ethnic regions SE and SW but lagos...and also states like Niger and jigawa.re strong PDP states and dat gives it to GEJ
Lemme correct u here; substract 3 SW from buhari and add to jonathan plus jigawa and Niger states that gives u 20states includin FCT and what is left for buhari is 17.....
Uneven deceptive Population of the north and violence will make it close but GEJ will carry the day...need I remind of the word incumbent??....which gives him the right to rig even more to his favour...at the end buhari go continue with him boko boys...

are u kidding me? What a 'top-surface' analysis. Look, in 2011, Sule lamido was gej's number one supporter in the north and, under his watch, buhari defeated gej there. Dont even think of niger, it is for gmb. Buhari lost FCT once and that was in 2011. He defeated obj and yaradua there in respective elections. I guess this was due to presence of foreign observers hindering rigging in FCT. Ppl voted gej last time in abj due to d religious card played then by some pastors in that city, and some gullible ones went for that. This time around, people have realised who gej truely is, and are not ready to play along that line again. FCT is for buhari!

EmmyDe25:

Atleast i know Kwara so well. Having had my primary and secondary education there... i know the level of power the Sarakis wield in the state. Although im still not clear as to who the Offa people are going to vote considering how they've been fighting tooth and nail to shake off the shackles of the Sakaris.

I'm from Offa.

Offa traditionally goes to where SW goes: AG(pre-independence and first republic); UPN(second republic); AD (1999); currently APC until Saraki defected to APC making a good number of them to leave APC for him.

Another factor is PDP Senatorial candidate for Kwara South is from Offa, and presidential election will hold on same day. Votes for "our son" (who's in PDP) will also deplete APC presidential votes as many people cannot distinguish between 2 ballot boxes.

It's a 50:50 thing, but the good thing is our voting population is not significant: less than 20,000. It's not even enough to win us Kwara South senatorial district depite being the biggest town in the district.

PassingShot:


Calm down mister!

On party strength as you say, APC still controls Lagos, Oyo and Edo. So, you think PDP will win in those states?

And I am old enough to tell you politics of Nigeria from the mid 80's let alone that of the SW where I come from. Original omo Ibadan ni mi

E pele o Mr. Historian. Imagine d major party in A.p.c (A.C.N) won only in osun in d 2011 presidential election. So, predicting a.p.c will win up to 22 states is funnier than Basketmouth at his best.

It soo pathetic that pple re comin here to write about buhari's credibility...the broke guys doesn't even know it, cos if he does him and his cohorts will ease their treats to GEJ supporters...u guys seem to believe this man more dan he does himself and we all knw a man dat lacks self believe is as good as nothing...God placed GEJ whre is he is today without any force, paving the way for him but in buharis case he has used all form of violence makin the north some sort of war zone yet what has he gained...how on earth can a level tinkin individual call for a man that said he will make his very own country ungovernable if he lost to be his president...the great abraham of America dat tried 15tyms did he utter such childish words?...abeg make una go rest with this una wishful figures...we don't need a holigan for a president....whom God has eleviated no man can pull down

Buhari can't get that number of votes in South East and most importantly, buhari can't win gej in edo state. Don't be surprised to see that apc might not even win the governorship in edo of today. Oshiomole had some issues that made the people really think he is not who he portend to be

rufdyamond:

I am certain he will win kano but not jigawa...u myt be kidding but am giving you facts will all things being equal....don't be sentimental...look critically b4 u talk

So can you tell me what has changed in Jigawa since Buhari won same state with CPC in 2011?

Remember Sule Lamido was still their governor in 2011.

Caseless:
are u kidding me? What a 'top-surface' analysis. Look, in 2011, Sule lamido was gej's number one supporter in the north and, under his watch, buhari defeated gej there. Dont even think of niger, it is for gmb. Buhari lost FCT once and that was in 2011. He defeated obj and yaradua there in respective elections. I guess this was due to presence of foreign observers hindering rigging in FCT. Ppl voted gej last time in abj due to d religious card played then by some pastors in that city, and some gullible ones went for that. This time around, people have realised who gej truely is, and are not ready to play along that line again. FCT is for buhari!

And who re these pple??...can you mention one...please don't genealize you very own wishful taughts...u talk about rigging like buhari is innocent of it....those your personal wishful analysis were in 2011...oga we re in 2014....no amount of force or rigging can give buhari abj...just to remind u that PDP won lagos in 2011 with all d AC power in lagos...I assure u one tin I can stake on dis ...buhari will come third in the elections...

rufdyamond:

I seriously like dat statement they may pull surprises....lemme tell u sumtin u guys ve failed to realize...PDP is planning seriously underground and throwing APC dirty deals to the general world with fake voters cards and all so when they unleash their plan the world would not ve a say about rigging...I ask u 2questions...what country's election re we discussing here....and pls who pays jega....brother let's be realistic and the fact remains GEJ is more credible than buhari...am not putting buhari's credibilty to doubt doh...u guys want a broke fellow to be our president again..its a pity pple like u didn't learn frm OBJ mistake...GEJ for 2015 joor

Ur analysis shows how drunk you are man. im wondering d kind of spirit dat did dis 2 you. May be its ogogoro or sapele water.

Bad baseless Prediction! In 2011 Buhari contested under virtually unknow Party but He got over 12million votes. Without SW support ooo.Now dt Seen n Unseen forces are behind him, what do u expect??