Ethnicity, religion and party affiliations will play roles in the voting patterns just like the previous election.
On Ethnicity and religion, Jonathan will cruise to victory in the South South, South East and in some North Central states. Buhari will only scratch the grounds.

Buhari will cruise home in the Northwest, North East. However, Jonathan will make some in roads in those states. The south west will be the battle ground.

Now while would Jonathan make in roads in the North and Buhari scratch the grounds on the reverse? This is because there are more South South, South East and North Central indigenes living in the north than we have the northerners living in the opposite. The population of Kano is boosted by non-indigenes, Jonathan will get their votes.
Now, contrary to what many think, the South western states will be the battle grounds. None of the two candidates will cruise home to victory. On the face value, it would appear as if Buhari will have it easy in the South West because of the APC but the factors of ethnicity, religion and party will not allow him to do so. Apart from the balance of Islam and Christianity in the South West, we also have population of South South and South East indigenes residing in the South West than we have in the reverse.
On a general note, this contest is not really between Buhari and Jonathan; both of them are just pawns in the Nigerian political chess board. The contest like I have stated earlier are three fronts.

Ethnic nationality: While Jonathan represents the minority tribes from the southern part of Nigeria, Buhari represents the majority tribe from the northern part. The South East, the south south and the some minorities up north will vote for Jonathan while the North West will vote for Buhari. On this consideration, Jonathan will the Ethnic votes.

Religion: While Jonathan represents Christianity, Buhari represents Islam. I am not saying Jonathan is great Christian neither am I saying Buhari is a great Moslem. I am saying on the religious divide, moslems who will vote with religion as a pointer, will vote for Buhari while Christians who will vote with religion as a pointer will vote for Jonathan.
Buhari will win the religious vote. This is because the Christians are more liberal than the moslems. The truth is this: to a faithful moslem, Islam comes first, Islam is his party. This consideration will boost Jonathans votes from the South East, South South and the Some North Central states. While it will boost Buhari’s chances in the core north.
Again the south west will be a battle ground.

Party: The PDP and other smaller parties will team up at the 11th hour. This will seal the south south and the south east votes for Jonathan. The APC will shine in the North West and the North east.
The south west will still remain the battle ground. Reason? Both parties have followership. However, on a national consideration, the PDP has a stronger followership than the APC. This is because the PDP has a stronger national outlook. This is an advantage to Jonathan.

Election Results:
There are two conditions for a winner to emerge:
1. The popular vote and
2. 25% of the votes in at least 25 out of the 36 states and Abuja.
Buhari might get the popular vote as a result of the pollution of states like Kano but he will not get the 25% in at least 25 states.
Jonathan might get the 25% in 25 states. This is because, while he will get the required 25% in Buhari’s strong states, Buhari will not get such Jonathan’s strong states.

Jinxed:
Now, with Buhari having the popular vote and Jonathan having the 25% in 25 states, the election will be jinxed. Jega cannot declare any of them winner. While it is easier to understand the popular vote, it is not that simple to understand the 25% in 25 states. Every illiterate can understand the popular vote but you need some level of reasoning to understand 25% in 25 states.
The APC will play to the gallery, shouting to whosoever cares that Buhari has won. I pity Jega! While Jega will be on television speaking grammar, his northern brothers will be calling for his head.
The consensus among the great number of the illiterates in the north would be, “who got the highest votes?” And the answer is “Buhari, but Jega has refused to declare him the winner”.
Then blood will start to soak “baboons and dogs”!
Jega will attempt to arrange for a runoff election but the crises in the north will not allow it. The crises will put Buhari on a bad sport and trigger sympathy for Jonathan, such that even if a runoff is organized, Jonathan will win by the sympathy votes.
This will escalate the crises. Maiming, arson, looting, slaughtering will take the stage. As a result of the chaos, the military might loose focus and the Boko Haram Jihardists will take advantage of that.
Southerners will run from the north like that of 1966.
So many options will be on ground but none can resolve the crises. The crises will deepen with the South South placing their independence on the table. Any attempt by the military to take over will be the last straw.

Nigeria will simply collapse.

Even if there is an outright winner, Nigeria is still jinxed.
I don’t know whether it is by omission or commission, but the emergence of these two men at this time is nothing but an omen.
A Buhari will be resisted in the South South.
For all I know, Buhari will stop the amnesty program without any due process. While south south law makes will be calling for his head, the northern lawmakers will support him. The south west will only be watching.

The oil war will return! That will have more implications for Nigeria than the current war.

On the other hand, a Jonathan will escalate the northern crises.

Can these crises be averted?

NOTE: all of the above are figment of my imagination.
However, let me say that I saw deep crises in a dream.
So deep was it that Nigeria lost part of it as an independent nation.
How ever i don't know if it is 2015, but I strongly believe so.

Merry Christmas to you all.

we should all prepare for chaos next year whoever wins.

Now wake up go and urinate and put on your u better pass my neighbor. The heat is affecting you.

Anyway Buhari Osibanjo 2015

I have told whoever care to listen that 2015 will be bloody. The other day I saw Nigerians in dream running helter skelter without knowing who is pursuing them, It's not my prayer though

Mr noblezone I won't argue much on who gets the majority vote. but let me tell you once buhari get the majority but any means, then he is the President. because he will get at least 25% in these states. Nassarawa,Kogi ,Niger,Benue, Plataea, kwara,jigawa kano katsina Kaduna, gombe, sokoto, yobe,taraba, yobe,kebbi, Bornu,zamfara,Adamawa, Ogun, Oyo, Lagos, osun, ekiti,ondo , Edo and FCT. so what are u saying. I have not even included Edo and IMO that he will at least put up a fight. so who told u that he won't get the required % to win if he gets the majority votes. pls correct me if I lie.

MrJanuzaj:
Mr noblezone I won't argue much on who gets the majority vote. but let me tell you once buhari get the majority but any means, then he is the President. because he will get at least 25% in these states. Nassarawa,Kogi ,Niger,Benue, Plataea, kwara,jigawa kano katsina Kaduna, gombe, sokoto, yobe,taraba, yobe,kebbi, Bornu,zamfara,Adamawa, Ogun, Oyo, Lagos, osun, ekiti,ondo , Edo and FCT. so what are u saying. I have not even included Edo and IMO that he will at least put up a fight. so who told u that he won't get the required % to win if he gets the majority votes. pls correct me if I lie.

you mean, bokori will get 25 percent votes in Benue? My benue? In the dream or the next world? Come to benue call the name buhari and hear what people will say, you will hear people shouting blood of jesus, death to buhari,death to islam. Buhari will not get 3percent votes in benue stop hoping for that which is not posssible, so you wount be shocked come 2015. Nairalanders, elections are not won on internet or social network. Here in benue I have not seen nor heard were people are Suporting buhari, so am wondering how he will get 25 percent votes.

NOTE: all of the above are figment of my imagination

Your imagination is running wild.
Merry Christmas

Prophesy of doom.

Otenestbestyaho:
you mean, bokori will get 25 percent votes in Benue? My benue? In the dream or the next world? Come to benue call the name buhari and hear what people will say, you will hear people shouting blood of jesus, death to buhari,death to islam. Buhari will not get 3percent votes in benue stop hoping for that which is not posssible, so you wount be shocked come 2015. Nairalanders, elections are not won on internet or social network. Here in benue I have not seen nor heard were people are Suporting buhari, so am wondering how he will get 25 percent votes.

my friend, what do mean he won't get up to 3%? na wa for u ooo. tell urself the truth. platuea and Benue are the only northern state buhari will most likely not win, but he will score far above 25% there. I know a lot of Benue indigenes who hate Gej. and remember Akume will be contesting the sane day as the presidential election, many in his senatorial zone may vote APC when coming to vote akume. 3% you say? lwkm!!!!! I hope this is just a hyperbole

The noise online is just too loud for comfort and basically incoherent discordant tunes. Buhari won 12 States during the last elections in 2011 because of sympathy from his folks and because of Hausa-Fulani special resistance against Jonathan's candidature shortly after the death of Yar'adua. However, Jonathan-led government has since made inroad into many Hausa States positively which will give him his required 25% in lost States up North while winning in the Christian-dominated ones up North!

Rubbish prophecy!!!

South west a battle ground Baba dream on! Beside lagos were u have a high concentration of igbos, the entire SW is APC dominated. You forgot who APC VP candidate his? Na there pikin bro, GEJ failed them big time. So keep dreamin on

MrJanuzaj:


my friend, what do mean he won't get up to 3%? na wa for u ooo. tell urself the truth. platuea and Benue are the only northern state buhari will most likely not win, but he will score far above 25% there. I know a lot of Benue indigenes who hate Gej. and remember Akume will be contesting the sane day as the presidential election, many in his senatorial zone may vote APC when coming to vote akume. 3% you say? lwkm!!!!! I hope this is just a hyperbole

taraba, southern kaduan, nasarawa 50.50,kogi 50.50, and I hope you know niger and adamawa have sizeable number of christians, infact, based on what is going on now in the church (comfirm from any ecwa church and NORTHERN CAN) no northern christians will vote for bin ladin osama buhari that is killing us via bokoharam and Fulani. Get it now.

berem:
Rubbish prophecy!!!

Nne m, complements of the season.

In two months time, we shall have a flash back and then you will know that some of really have come to understand Nigeria!

Finally, while I wont contest your position of the "prophesy" being rubbish, I challenge you to put out your own thoughts with respect to the outcome!

If you observed, as much as I prefer Jonathan over Buhari, even a 1000 times over, I am being very objective that Buhari would make more progress than the last times.

My analysis is not from emotions!

Warmest regards

noblezone:


Nne m, complements of the season.

In two months time, we shall have a flash back and then you will know that some of really have come to understand Nigeria!

Finally, while I wont contest your position of the "prophesy" being rubbish, I challenge you to put out your own thoughts with respect to the outcome!


If you observed, as much as I prefer Jonathan over Buhari, even a 1000 times over, I am being very objective that Buhari would make more progress than the last times.

My analysis is not from emotions!

Warmest regards

I don't believe in prophecies from someone who hates Buhari with passion so don't expect me to start any argument with you.

Merry Christmas to you my dear friend.

Prayer changes things. Let's never cease 2 pray 4 9ja,pls GEAJ will win NE but Yobe n Borno not inclusive. Buhari will get 25% though.
Governor Adamawa PDP
Governor Bauchi PDP
Governor Gombe PDP
Governor TarabaPDP Governor Borno APC
Governor Yobe APC
from d above its clear GEAJ will crush GMB in NE.
@ op thanks 4 this thread, though i disagree w some of yr prediction.

Otenestbestyaho:
taraba, southern kaduan, nasarawa 50.50,kogi 50.50, and I hope you know niger and adamawa have sizeable number of christians, infact, based on what is going on now in the church (comfirm from any ecwa church and NORTHERN CAN) no northern christians will vote for bin ladin osama buhari that is killing us via bokoharam and Fulani. Get it now.

You lied bro...am base in kaduna and abuja, most of my friends are southern kaduna, infact they. Convince me to vote for change (APC) people are tired of PDP, what has a christian president done to them? They keep asking, CAN are bunch of rogues and thieves nobody send them again. Stop sayin what u don't know bro

resty4:
Prayer changes things. Let's never cease 2 pray 4 9ja,pls GEAJ will win NE but Yobe n Borno not inclusive. Buhari will get 25% though.
Governor Adamawa PDP
Governor Bauchi PDP
Governor Gombe PDP
Governor TarabaPDP Governor Borno APC
Governor Yobe APC
from d above its clear GEAJ will crush GMB in NE.
@ op thanks 4 this thread, though i disagree w some of yr prediction.

judging by the last election in southwest, your comment is rendered invalid, beside seems u never travel to NE/NW state before? Baba if GEJ fit get 5% na miracle.

[quote author=MrJanuzaj post=29181405]Mr noblezone I won't argue much on who gets the majority vote. but let me tell you once buhari get the majority but any means, then he is the President. because he will get at least 25% in these states. Nassarawa,Kogi ,Niger,Benue, Plataea, kwara,jigawa kano katsina Kaduna, gombe, sokoto, yobe,taraba, yobe,kebbi, Bornu,zamfara,Adamawa, Ogun, Oyo, Lagos, osun, ekiti,ondo , Edo and FCT. so what are u saying. I have not even included Edo and IMO that he will at least put up a fight. so who told u that he won't get the required % to win if he gets the majority votes. pls correct me if I lie.

Count Plateau, benue, edo, out of this calculations.

berem:
I don't believe in prophecies from someone who hates Buhari with passion so don't expect me to start any argument with you.

Merry Christmas to you my dear friend.

first, you will observe its "prophesy" and not ptophesy.

In English language, there the qoute makes a big difference.

Secondly, I do not hate Buhari, i am only strongly opposed to his candidacy because I am convinced Jonathan is far better than him.

Also, do not allow your emotions to becloud your sense of reasoning.

If I am to listen only to my emotions, then its an easy ride for Jonathan.

Finally, i think it is good for to be open and accomodating enough such we can listen to other people's opinions and argurments.

Insiting it must be my views, and my ways akk the time is not only tyranical but a sign of imaturity!

Assuming I hate Buhari, there must be reasons for that. Rather than war against me, educate and convince me otherwise!

You will recall that despite your misguided and unfortunate position about Jonathan, I see you as my sister and not an enemy!

That we belong to different opinions, does not mean we are enemies! in the end, its either Jonathan or Buhari!

In my world, life goes on, but in the world of extremists, blood will "soak baboons and dogs"!

Once more my sis, I implore you: come out from among them!

Nice one op. You are the first person here to give us real or possible analysis on how next years election will look like. I have said it here before that south-west will be the battle ground region, especially lagos nd ogun. PDP will take south-south nd south-east, while APC will take north-west. For north-east, bornu nd yobe will vote for APC but voters turnout will be low nd same for adamawa that will vote for PDP. APC will take gombe nd bauchi, while PDP will take taraba nd jigawa. For north-central, PDP will take kogi, benue nd plateau nd niger, while APC will take kwara. Nasarawa will be a battle groumd state. For south-west PDP will take ekiti nd ondo while APC will take osun. In oyo nd ogun, accord nd SDP will play a major role in the presidential election. In simple language, lagos nd ogun will decide who becomes president next year. Merry Christmas.

PentiumPro:


Your imagination is running wild.
Merry Christmas

i wish you the same dear.

Well, its not as wild as you think.

berem:
Rubbish prophecy!!!

Buriem buriem
My wife
A lof u

berem:
I don't believe in prophecies from someone who hates Buhari with passion so don't expect me to start any argument with you.

Merry Christmas to you my dear friend.

You didn't wish your husband merry Xmas

Otenestbestyaho:
you mean, bokori will get 25 percent votes in Benue? My benue? In the dream or the next world? Come to benue call the name buhari and hear what people will say, you will hear people shouting blood of jesus, death to buhari,death to islam. Buhari will not get 3percent votes in benue stop hoping for that which is not posssible, so you wount be shocked come 2015. Nairalanders, elections are not won on internet or social network. Here in benue I have not seen nor heard were people are Suporting buhari, so am wondering how he will get 25 percent votes.

Akume's senatorial district alone will give buhari more than 20% in benue, add gemade's senatorial district to it and see how shallow your assertion is.

@ noblezone, it's 25% in at least 24 states, not 25 states.

"@ OP , 25% in 24 states and not 25 states


2/3rd of 36 states = 24STATES

Buhari will get 25% in all the 19 Nrthern states and 6 SW states , that is already 25 states, mind you, he only needs 24 states.

he will also get 25% in the FCT.

MrJanuzaj:


my friend, what do mean he won't get up to 3%? na wa for u ooo. tell urself the truth. platuea and Benue are the only northern state buhari will most likely not win, but he will score far above 25% there. I know a lot of Benue indigenes who hate Gej. and remember Akume will be contesting the sane day as the presidential election, many in his senatorial zone may vote APC when coming to vote akume. 3% you say? lwkm!!!!! I hope this is just a hyperbole

Gemade is also contesting the Senate under the Apc on that day. These people don't know what will hit them next year. I am eagerly waiting for akwa ibom president election results. It is strategic the the presidential election comes first, the likes of umama need to prove a point before the gubernatorial election.

Iriruaga100:
Nice one op. You are the first person here to give us real or possible analysis on how next years election will look like. I have said it here before that south-west will be the battle ground region, especially lagos nd ogun. PDP will take south-south nd south-east, while APC will take north-west. For north-east, bornu nd yobe will vote for APC but voters turnout will be low nd same for adamawa that will vote for PDP. APC will take gombe nd bauchi, while PDP will take taraba nd jigawa. For north-central, PDP will take kogi, benue nd plateau nd niger, while APC will take kwara. Nasarawa will be a battle groumd state. For south-west PDP will take ekiti nd ondo while APC will take osun. In oyo nd ogun, accord nd SDP will play a major role in the presidential election. In simple language, lagos nd ogun will decide who becomes president next year. Merry Christmas.

thanks bro!

You know, most of them do their analysis based on what they want and not on realities!

The fact that ethnicity and religion play major roles in our voting patterns seem so hard for them to understand.

I agree with low turn out in the north east, but what matters most is the 25% of total votes casted.

CFCfan:
@ noblezone, it's 25% in at least 24 states, not 25 states.

i know 2/3rd of 36 is 24, but when you add Abuja, it becomes 37.

Obiagelli:


Akume's senatorial district alone will give buhari more than 20% in benue, add gemade's senatorial district to it and see how shallow your assertion is.

you are a swegbe "dangerous mumu" when it is time to vote, you will know wether akume love buhari, forget about akume and gemede,zone A, B and C will be swept for janathan. No benue man of tiv, idoma, igede,itolo and aklo will vote for a muslim like buhari that support the killings of we in the middle belt via Fulani. Your silly calculations will only work in the governorship election but at the federal level, HELL NO. Don't quote me, just wait till feb 14th!