emiye:
"@ OP , 25% in 24 states and not 25 states


2/3rd of 36 states = 24STATES

Buhari will get 25% in all the 19 Nrthern states and 6 SW states , that is already 25 states, mind you, he only needs 24 states.

he will also get 25% in the FCT.

there is a possibility of that. I mean Buhari getting 25% in all 19 states.

However, also consider that Jonathan will eqaully get 25% in all the 17 states of the south and 10 from the north.

If the election becomes too close to call, I pity Jega!

Otenestbestyaho:
you are a swegbe "dangerous mumu" when it is time to vote, you will know wether akume love buhari, forget about akume and gemede,zone A, B and C will be swept for janathan. No benue man of tiv, idoma, igede,itolo and aklo will vote for a muslim like buhari that support the killings of we in the middle belt via Fulani. Your silly calculations will only work in the governorship election but at the federal level, HELL NO. Don't quote me, just wait till feb 14th!

We can only wait

Citadelb0t:
Prophesy of doom.

just facing realities bro.

noblezone:



there is a possibility of that. I mean Buhari getting 25% in all 19 states.

However, also consider that Jonathan will eqaully get 25% in all the 17 states of the south and 10 from the north.

If the election becomes too close to call, I pity Jega!

my man why are u deviating. you said " even if buhari win the majority votes, he cant have the required 25%". remember he needs on 24/25 States. now my friend 19 northern States + 6 SW states is already 25. add FCT. its home and dry. how abt Edo, rivers and IMO where APC can unsurprisingly muster 25%. so recheck your analysis pls. this election will never produce a runoff, any of the candidate that wins the majority has won because PDP and APC are now more national spread than ever before.

dayo23:
South west a battle ground Baba dream on! Beside lagos were u have a high concentration of igbos, the entire SW is APC dominated. You forgot who APC VP candidate his? Na there pikin bro, GEJ failed them big time. So keep dreamin on

Are Ekiti and Ondo states not in the South-West? Are they not PDP states? IF GEJ takes Lagos (due to high volumes of non-indigenes), Ondo and Ekiti, sweeps SE, SS and takes a chunk of middle-belt, election never finish?
Please, am i wrong? Ps: i havent insulted anybody so i just expect a compelling arguement.

noblezone:



there is a possibility of that. I mean Buhari getting 25% in all 19 states.

However, also consider that Jonathan will eqaully get 25% in all the 17 states of the south and 10 from the north.

If the election becomes too close to call, I pity Jega!

There is nothing like election too close to call. That language is only meant for pre election analysis.

In real election, once u have the highest number of votes , and at least 25% in 24 states , you have won. luckily, the number of states in Nigeria are now even number 36 states, unlike in 1979, when there were 19 states, and 2/3rd of 19 states caused katakata because shagari won in 12 states, and 2/3rd of 19 is 12.67

Otenestbestyaho:
you mean, bokori will get 25 percent votes in Benue? My benue? In the dream or the next world? Come to benue call the name buhari and hear what people will say, you will hear people shouting blood of jesus, death to buhari,death to islam. Buhari will not get 3percent votes in benue stop hoping for that which is not posssible, so you wount be shocked come 2015. Nairalanders, elections are not won on internet or social network. Here in benue I have not seen nor heard were people are Suporting buhari, so am wondering how he will get 25 percent votes.

This was the result in 2011.

PDP 694,776 ACN 223,007 CPC 109,680

His no platform CPC got over 100,000 votes in Benue in 2011,

emiye:
There is nothing like election too close to call. That language is only meant for pre election analysis.

In real election, once u have the highest number of votes , and 25% in 24 states , you have won. luckily, the number of states in Nigeria are now even number 36 states, unlike in 1979, when there were 19 states, and 2/3rd of 19 states caused katakata because shagari won in 12 states, and 2/3rd of 19 is 12.67

i understand bro!
I mean a case where one candidate gets the popular vote and not the 2/3 of 25% in states.
While the other person gets the reverse.

MrJanuzaj:
Mr noblezone I won't argue much on who gets the majority vote. but let me tell you once buhari get the majority but any means, then he is the President. because he will get at least 25% in these states. Nassarawa,Kogi ,Niger,Benue, Plataea, kwara,jigawa kano katsina Kaduna, gombe, sokoto, yobe,taraba, yobe,kebbi, Bornu,zamfara,Adamawa, Ogun, Oyo, Lagos, osun, ekiti,ondo , Edo and FCT. so what are u saying. I have not even included Edo and IMO that he will at least put up a fight. so who told u that he won't get the required % to win if he gets the majority votes. pls correct me if I lie.

Dreamer keep dreaming, keep on, take north central out of Buhari zone, even in Kano, South West it is 50-50, Gej will take the day, but the Muslim understands violence they will cause chaos but Gej will still prevail

noblezone:


i understand bro!
I mean a case where one candidate gets the popular vote and not the 2/3 of 25% in states.
While the other person gets the reverse.

I dont see that happening, this time around the top 2 candidates will share 99% of the votes.

No other candidate of Northern extraction will divide the Northern votes unlike 2011, we had Ribadu and Shekarau.

If there is any candidate, who might not get at least 25% in 24 states, Maybe GEJ, because i feel he wont get it in 10 out of the 13 (NW + NE states)

if he fails to get in 3 other NC states like kwara, Niger, and ......, although i feel this is a remote possibility, then he is done for.

raumdeuter:
Now wake up go and urinate and put on your u better pass my neighbor. The heat is affecting you.

Anyway Buhari Osibanjo 2015

People like u will the one shouting "Who got the highest vote?" Just like noblezone rightly said.

MrJanuzaj:


my man why are u deviating. you said " even if buhari win the majority votes, he cant have the required 25%". remember he needs on 24/25 States. now my friend 19 northern States + 6 SW states is already 25. add FCT. its home and dry. how abt Edo, rivers and IMO where APC can unsurprisingly muster 25%. so recheck your analysis pls. this election will never produce a runoff, any of the candidate that wins the majority has won because PDP and APC are now more national spread than ever before.

if party affliation is the only yardstick, you would have been right.

Bro, the ethinic/religious affiliation comes first.

Despite the fact that APC might take the guber for Rivers, the state will return Jonathan in shock that will see the APC confused.

Please stop calling SW battle ground. The SW hates Jonathan. Where the PDP has a strong candidate such a candidate might do well in his own election but Jonathan is majorly unacceptable in SW,NW,NE and NC. The battle ground states are Rivers and Imo.

emiye:


This was the result in 2011.

PDP 694,776 ACN 223,007 CPC 109,680

His no platform CPC got over 100,000 votes in Benue in 2011,

Any time we come to detailed analysis, you guys quickky substitute PDP for Jonathan knowing the President is unsellable on his own. Let me give you an education, there is no PDP that is going to help Jona in the presidential election.

Very unbiased analysis...but u forgot to add two vital variables in nigeria politics,power of money and power of rigging in ur comfort zone.

mazzi:
Very unbiased analysis...but u forgot to add two vital variables in nigeria politics,power of money and power of rigging in ur comfort zone.

I assumed, rigging will no longer be like it used to.and + think it wont be.

Money wont really sway voters that much. They are likely collect Mr. A's money and still vote for Mr. B.

Adminisher:


Any time we come to detailed analysis, you guys quickky substitute PDP for Jonathan knowing the President is unsellable on his own. Let me give you an education, there is no PDP that is going to help Jona in the presidential election.

Bro, i am refutting the claims of the fellow, who said Buhari can not get 3% of Benue state vote because of islam, ........

Buhari on a weak CPC platform with no structure had 11% of Benue vote in 2011, Ribadu on ACN platform another muslim / fulani man had 25% of Benue votes in 2011

noblezone:


if party affliation is the only yardstick, you would have been right.

Bro, the ethinic/religious affiliation comes first.

Despite the fact that APC might take the guber for Rivers, the state will return Jonathan in shock that will see the APC confused.

Correct! I believe the influence of both Amaechi and Oshiomhole will be limited to the election of APC National Assembly candidates.

MrJanuzaj:


my friend, what do mean he won't get up to 3%? na wa for u ooo. tell urself the truth. platuea and Benue are the only northern state buhari will most likely not win, but he will score far above 25% there. I know a lot of Benue indigenes who hate Gej. and remember Akume will be contesting the sane day as the presidential election, many in his senatorial zone may vote APC when coming to vote akume. 3% you say? lwkm!!!!! I hope this is just a hyperbole

Buhari will take one or both of Benue and Plateau

RedEboe:


Are Ekiti and Ondo states not in the South-West? Are they not PDP states? IF GEJ takes Lagos (due to high volumes of non-indigenes), Ondo and Ekiti, sweeps SE, SS and takes a chunk of middle-belt, election never finish?
Please, am i wrong? Ps: i havent insulted anybody so i just expect a compelling arguement.

Okay by the same ridiculous argument I put Imo and Rivers for Buhari