This is a revision to my first prediction of the 2015 presidential Election which was well commented on.

The revision was necessitated by some of the comments received from the first one which you can find here: https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective

[size=15pt]I am doing this because of my curiosity to see how Jonathan can possibly win FAIRLY without a type of rigging we have never witnessed in the history of elections in Nigeria.[/size]

The following are what have changed in the permutations to arrive at this result:

1. In his stronghold of SS/SE, GEJ has been awarded the maximum reasonable votes of 90% (95% in Bayelsa) across the board. The exceptions are Edo (60%), Rivers (70%) and Imo (75%). On the other hand, GMB’s average win percentage has been pegged at between 70% and 80% in his strongholds of NW and NE. The exception is Bauchi (85%) which he won in 2011 by 81%.

2. Though I can’t see GEJ winning Lagos; nonetheless, I have given Lagos to him at 60%. Ekiti has also been given to him at 55% of the votes.

3. I have given Kaduna to GMB based on the fact that he won that state in 2011 as well and also based on the comments from those on the ground in KD.

4. On average, Jonathan is awkwardly projected to have 77.33% win average of the regions he “wins” while Buhari’s win average has been conservatively restricted at 70.6%.


Despite all of these, the fact of the matter remains that without massive rigging in the SW and NC and even in some Northern states, I can't see GEJ winning the next election.

If you have any observations or how you think GEJ can reasonably pull it through without too much bias, please let's hear it.


We all must condemn post-election violence but we must equally work to prevent it by making the votes count.

Thank you for your comments.

CC: Ola6, Rossike, Truckpusher, Babyosisi, collynzo23; theassassin, jmaine, idumuose, Sunnybobo3, joehannibal, blackTechnology, LeOstrich, OLADD, biafranqueen, Tomakint, Mogidi, Jmaine, Jamace, Sunnybobo, Customized13, Opiaoku, Petrov10, gramci, Taharqa, Iamodenigbo; Arysexy, Descartes, Gh0stFreak, Shizzlestar, ujoinme, rozayx5,omenka, egift, caseless,
NgeneUkwenu cleverly, Obiagelli, Berem, Iligunboy, Donphilopus, Keneking, Mogidi, NgeneUkwenu, Barcarnista, Obiagelli, Demdem, GenBuhari, Kelsoft, Donphilopus, Koboko69, Arresa, Caseless, Gbawe MichaelSokoto, gbawe, Abagworo, OrlandoOwoh Berem, Jomoh, Egift, Arewafederation, Soroptimist, Keneking, Pendy79,Neenar, Desola, MizMyColi, Horus, Whitecat007, keneking, Lakpalakpa, ShehuAba, Rawani,
Tribaleast, Olaaderin, Soroptimist, Mynd44, , Nduchucks, Lacasa, Pendy79, Omerta, Ilugunboy, Naptu2, Aussie, Joseph1013, Olayinka8793, MalcoImX, mayoroflagos, shymexx, OrlandoOwoh chukwudi44, wombraiders,mudraker, bishopjuice, ghostfacekiller,
chiefjusticefuk; firefire, datolee, bloodykiller, ichidodo, ratiken, dozzybaba, phockphockman, longeria, aljharem, aryzgreat, publisher, brownlord, iconize, rigarmortis, Descartes, pointb, pazienza, OKDNigeria, stebell, brokenTV, longeria, rozayx5, whitetechnology,
Billyonaire, BackDatAssUp Pataki

Hmmm una don buy job o!!!...All dis prediction, guess work etc...we all know who will win if its going to be free and fair

DrWalter:
Hmmm una don buy job o!!!...All dis prediction, guess work etc...we all know who will win if its going to be free and fair

Na real buy job! Good to know that we know who will win if the election is free and fair.

[size=15pt]HOW JONATHAN WILL WIN 2015 ELECTION[/size]
Written by [size=15pt]Simon Kolawole[/size] ex This day editor and a die-hard Buhari supporter.

I have been listening to comments and reading analyses on the 2015 presidential election with rapt attention. There is nothing unanimous in the predictions and projections, but I am sensing a trend in the analyses: that if the All Progressives Congress (APC) fields Maj. General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) against President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), then it will be a piece of cake for the former head of state. A Buhari supporter, in a recent newspaper interview, said Buhari's votes in the North plus Bola Tinubu's votes in the south-west equal automatic victory for APC.


Slow down a bit, guys. I have no intention of raining on anyone's parade or pouring cold water on exciting calculations, but analyses do not have to be this simplistic. If the history and politics of elections in Nigeria are to be of any use in these postulations, the safest bet will be to say there are still many rivers to cross. My intention today is to draw attention to several facts and factors that will be at play during the elections. Many things are still taking shape; opportunities and threats still exist for the PDP and the APC. It is too early in the day to arrive at definite conclusions.


Let us look into some of the assumptions one by one. The first is that Buhari will clear the votes in the core North and Tinubu will deliver the South-west votes in one basket. That Buhari will win in the core North has never been in dispute ─ he has done so consistently since 2003. It is unthinkable that he will not win there. However, I'm not sure Tinubu can clear the South-west the same way Buhari could do in the core North. It appears many commentators have not been monitoring recent developments in the South-west. To start with, two of the six states ─ Ekiti and Ondo ─ are now in the hands of PDP. That is important to note.


Meanwhile, the APC is getting weaker in Oyo state. The three APC senators have left the party; the death of Alhaji Alao Arisekola has dealt some body blow on Governor Abiola Ajimobi; former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala (PDP) is on a rebound; former Governor Rashidi Ladoja, who controls large portions of Ibadan, is complicating things for APC. In Ogun, Governor Ibikunle Amosun is under fire from within and without. Chief Olusegun Osoba, in whose camp the Ogun APC senators and house members are, is playing hard ball with Amosun. The PDP, meanwhile, is bringing back its break-up groups and rebuilding in the state.


In simple words, Oyo and Ogun have become very shaky and it is a bit tenuous to assume the South-west will vote en bloc for APC in 2015. I may well be wrong, but I am seeing a split of the zone's 13.5 million votes. The South-west, in my opinion, is neither here nor there yet. No assumptions should be made and no conclusions should be reached yet, certainly not in October 2014. Of course, the APC is not sleeping and is also hoping to gain from the fall-outs from PDP's possible slips in the coming weeks. But South-west does not look like one-way traffic as at today.


Meanwhile, there is also this assumption that Buhari ─ or APC ─ does not need the South-east and South-south (SESS). That is ridiculous. First, it is not good for Buhari's CV that he has never won in any Southern state since he launched his presidential bid in 2003. Not one state. And it is also not good political strategy to downplay SESS. There are 11 states in these two geo-political zones. The APC calculation may be that the South-south would rather have a "son of the soil" as president. The South-east, it seems, is fully joined in matrimony to South-south under Jonathan's presidency. But does that mean giving up without a fight?


Let us now reverse the case. Jonathan, despite knowing that the core North will be a difficult hunting ground for him, is putting up a decent fight. He is working to secure as many votes as possible in Buhari's territory. The president has gathered many strong politicians to his side. Now let us do some basic calculations. SESS has 17 million votes combined. Buhari's home zone, North-west, has 18.7 million registered voters. If Jonathan bites off as much as 30-40% of the votes in the North-west (which he did in 2011) while Buhari does poorly in SESS (like before), Jonathan would clearly gain more than Buhari in the candidates' home zones.


Jonathan's chances, in the meantime, are also bright among the Northern minorities. It could be minority solidarity, I can't say. The North-central has 11 million names on the voter register. Jonathan's reconciliation with former military, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, and the governor of Niger State, Dr. Babangida Aliyu, could help him in Niger state. Kogi, Plateau, Nasarawa and Benue would ordinarily back Jonathan. But Kwara, which supported him in 2011, is now uncertain, with the godfather, Bukola Saraki, relocating to APC. Buhari will fancy his chances in Kwara, that is if Saraki can ward off his PDP foes, who look very formidable. In truth, Kwara now looks more like a tight corner for both parties.


The North-east, boasting of 11 million registered voters, could be a mixed bag. Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe and Borno have always gone to Buhari, while Taraba and Adamawa seem to have a thing for Jonathan. But something significant has changed in Borno: Ali Modu Sheriff is now in PDP. Since 1999, Borno has always faced any direction Sheriff pointed to, and his defection must be considered a loss to APC. I was not surprised at APC's reaction when Sheriff left: Borno's 2.5 million votes are the nation's fifth largest after Lagos (5.4m), Kano (4.7m), Kaduna (3.7m) and Katsina (2.9m). Being Buhari's familiar hunting ground, however, Borno could still be game for him.


Before I shut down my computer, I would like to maintain that unlike many observers and analysts, I foresee a very competitive election. And, I think, four months to the polls, we should avoid jumping into certain conclusions. One of the major failings of the opposition is that they underrated Jonathan's ability to respond to the momentum they gained last year. Before they could settle down to savour the heavyweight defections from PDP to APC, the Jonathan camp had launched a counter offensive, in addition to benefitting from crises arising from the consolidation process of APC.


Therefore, dear readers, with what I have seen in Nigeria in the last few months, and what I understand about the dynamics of our electoral politics, I would conclude that the day is still young. For the two leading parties, there are still many hurdles to clear. Let the game begin!
http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/jonathan-and-the-2015-calculations/192278

The whole nation knows GEJ will win, except dreamers.

Mogidi:
Written by [size=15pt]Simon Kolawole[/size] ex This day editor and a die-hard Buhari supporter.

I.

That's how people like you fail exams. How is your contribution related to the topic? And who is Simon Kolawole?

PassingShot:


That's how people like you fail exams. How is your contribution related to the topic? And who is Simon Kolawole?

What do you mean by how is my contribution related to the topic? You just opened a thread to post your prediction, am here posting a prediction from a research done by a partisan journalist who supports Buhari. Why is it not related, is it because it burst the above bubble?

Read Kolawole's detailed research and stop plucking figures from thin air. If you don't know who Kolawole is, I suggest you do a google search.
Again am sorry if I burst your bubble. ENJOY!!!

There is no way Buhari is winning Ondo State. Reasons are listed below.
1. There is no presence of APC in Ondo State at all. During the last guber elections, ACN which is now APC came a distant 3rd. With the Mimiko (Ondo State Governor) decamping to PDP from LP, it further strengthens GEJ's Chances in the State.

2. Buhari has been campaigning with an undertone of religious bias. The population of Muslims in Ondo state is less than 25% thus APC does not seem to have any bargaining chip in this State.

Mogidi:


What do you mean by how is my contribution related to the topic? You just opened a thread to post your prediction, am here posting a prediction from a research done by a partisan journalist who supports Buhari. Why is it not related, is it because it burst the above bubble?

Read Kolawole's detailed research and stop plucking figures from thin air. If you don't know who Kolawole is, I suggest you do a google search.
Again am sorry if I burst your bubble. ENJOY!!!

Which bubble you keep saying you burst?

If you want to present Kolawole's research, you can do that by opening a thread and let's discuss it. I'm willing to do that with you. However, this thread is to discuss my own research and not one Kolawole's. Do you now get the gist? So, if you have something to contribute to this topic, you're most welcome. Otherwise, just pass.

Chaleeee:
There is no way Buhari is winning Ondo State. Reasons are listed below.
1. There is no presence of APC in Ondo State at all. During the last guber elections, ACN which is now APC came a distant 3rd. With the Mimiko (Ondo State Governor) decamping to PDP from LP, it further strengthens GEJ's Chances in the State.

2. Buhari has been campaigning with an undertone of religious bias. The population of Muslims in Ondo state is less than 25% thus APC does not seem to have any bargaining chip in this State.

Thank you for the info.

Ondo is very much leaning toward APC as it stands now. Mimiko is now hated by the general populace and couple with the fact that Yoruba is on the APC ticket, there are enough reasons to believe that Ondo will be won by APC.

I don't get what you mean by Buhari campaigning with religion. He has a devout Yoruba Christian plus many other Christians in the SW campaigning for him. So how could he be possibly doing that? It doesn't add up.

The op seems to be obsessed with making predictions over the elections.Let me remind you that whatever you post on this site would not affect the outcome of the elections.

If you like give Buhari 98% across the state, it would not affect events on ground. Fayemi won every online poll conducted during the ekiti elections but failed to win a single local government during the main election.

Better sit and wait till February 15 or 16 2015 for inec to declare the results

PassingShot:


Which bubble you keep saying you burst?

If you want to present Kolawole's research, you can do that by opening a thread and let's discuss it. I'm willing to do that with you. However, this thread is to discuss my own research and not one Kolawole's. Do you now get the gist? So, if you have something to contribute to this topic, you're most welcome. Otherwise, just pass.

You are not the owner of this website and can't tell him what to post here. That research is very relevant to this thread. You can't ask him not to post it.

If you want to regulate posts better go and get your own website

Let the best man win #SIAfan #vote #voteIbikunleAmosunofOgunstatecome2015 #votethebest

chukwudi44:


You are not the owner of this website and can't tell him what to post here. That research is very relevant to this thread. You can't ask him not to post it.

If you want to regulate posts better go and get your own website

Don't hyperventilate! You do that a lot. Is it a sign of frustration?

chukwudi44:
The op seems to be obsessed with making predictions over the elections.Let me remind you that whatever you post on this site would not affect the outcome of the elections.

If you like give Buhari 98% across the state, it would not affect events on ground. Fayemi won every online poll conducted during the ekiti elections but failed to win a single local government during the main election.

Better sit and wait till February 15 or 16 2015 for inec to declare the results

I am an inquisitive mind and just want to explore how GEJ could win without rigging.

Just prove that GEJ can win the election fairly without rigging. Or puncture my submission.

Is it difficult for you to engage in civil discussion?

It is all speculations. come February 14, we will go out and vote, by 15 the, we would have got an idea who our next president will be.

PassingShot:


Which bubble you keep saying you burst?

If you want to present Kolawole's research, you can do that by opening a thread and let's discuss it. I'm willing to do that with you. However, this thread is to discuss my own research and not one Kolawole's. Do you now get the gist? So, if you have something to contribute to this topic, you're most welcome. Otherwise, just pass.

Your research have to be presented side by side with other researches except you live on beer parlour style politics in which case I'd excuse myself. Bros you can let Buhari win 99% of the votes, its your thread, you are guaranteed freedom to spew jack shiit in the constitution.
Passing the fantasy notion that exist in your head might be up for debate, but I'd let you enjoy your dream, wake up before February though.

PassingShot:



I am an inquisitive mind and just want to explore how GEJ could win without rigging.

Just prove that GEJ can win the election fairly without rigging. Or puncture my submission.

Is it difficult for you to engage in civil discussion?

I don't need to prove anything for you.Just sit and wait when GEJ is declared winner go and commit suicide.

I repeat whatever you post on this site will not affect the election results.

PassingShot:


Don't hyperventilate! You do that a lot. Is it a sign of frustration?

By February16 2015,we will know who amongst the two of us is frustrated

chukwudi44:


You are not the owner of this website and can't tell him what to post here. That research is very relevant to this thread. You can't ask him not to post it.

If you want to regulate posts better go and get your own website

I think we should leave him to give all the states in Nigeria to Buhari, he's allowed to dream.

Mogidi:



I think we should leave him to give all the states in Nigeria to Buhari, he's allowed to dream.

When you invite Jonathanians to present objective points, they result to general statements lacking in critical thinking!

Mogidi:



I think we should leave him to give all the states in Nigeria to Buhari, he's allowed to dream.

The guy is a very big fool. I wonder how he thinks this useless propaganda will serve his paymasters? Allocating baseless number of votes to the fanatic on social media Will never win the elections for him.

No matter what is posted on social media, the person taking the presidential oath of office on May 29 2015 will be the person inec announces as the winner and nothing more.If you like give Buhari 100% across the 36 states on social media. It doesn't change a thing

PassingShot:


When you invite Jonathanians to present objective points, they result to general statements lacking in critical thinking!

Critical thinking indeed!!! Did you conduct a poll in these states before posting these thrash? Mumu people don't just sit in their rooms and post figures

i was here

Good work to the Op, I believe intelligent ppl no matter their linings will always look into possible future outcomes to be able to position themselves better and also for better planning. @Op these are my observations, sincerely am a Buhari supporter but i'll like to cast some doubts on Buhari claiming Adamawa due to these points; you need to take into account the displaced persons in its towns and cities thereby bringing about lower turnout of voters in that state, same points goes to borno state (although it can as well be argued that those displaced towns both in borno and Adamawa should be Jonathan's strong hold since these towns and villages are populated more by Christians)
Also the prediction of taraba state, Taraba state has more Christian population which through religions campaign of PDP would most likely go to Jonathan, but at a second look, the political happenings in the state could actually make it go to Buhari like u predicted, but I just wish u can put all of that into consideration.
Kogi state was alotted to Jonathan which I don't agree with, Looking at the population, political happening and how PDP has fared are factors that are going to work against Jonathan, it will most likely go APC, Kogi comprises basically three ethnic groups, Igala, Ebira and Yoruba, none of these group seem to b in support of the President, also like u noted, I support On do going to Buhari due to facts on ground in the state, APC is really expanding its base and structures in the state coupled with pppl's outrage against mimiko., Also Lagos, how is that possible for Jonathan to take Lagos? Like u also noted, EDO and RIVERS cannot be won with that margin u allotted Jonathan but let's just leave it so, also with latest report from ekiti state, its dicey.....these are my observations

@Op, don't let @chukwudi and @mogidi distract u with their usual rants whenever their paymaster is not having a good showing, just keep with ur analysis and take note of sensible comments. How is it hard for chukwudi and mogidi to come up their own calculation and analysis instead of their usual badmouthing and denial. We are in a civil society and everyone can come up with data in their possession, come up wt yours and counter what the op came upon with with facts not insults and badmouth

swtdrms:
Good work to the Op, I believe intelligent ppl no matter their linings will always look into possible future outcomes to be able to position themselves better and also for better planning. @Op these are my observations, sincerely am a Buhari supporter but i'll like to cast some doubts on Buhari claiming Adamawa due to these points; you need to take into account the displaced persons in its towns and cities thereby bringing about lower turnout of voters in that state, same points goes to borno state (although it can as well be argued that those displaced towns both in borno and Adamawa should be Jonathan's strong hold since these towns and villages are populated more by Christians)
Also the prediction of taraba state, Taraba state has more Christian population which through religions campaign of PDP would most likely go to Jonathan, but at a second look, the political happenings in the state could actually make it go to Buhari like u predicted, but I just wish u can put all of that into consideration.
Kogi state was alotted to Jonathan which I don't agree with, Looking at the population, political happening and how PDP has fared are factors that are going to work against Jonathan, it will most likely go APC, Kogi comprises basically three ethnic groups, Igala, Ebira and Yoruba, none of these group seem to b in support of the President, also like u noted, I support On do going to Buhari due to facts on ground in the state, APC is really expanding its base and structures in the state coupled with pppl's outrage against mimiko., Also Lagos, how is that possible for Jonathan to take Lagos? Like u also noted, EDO and RIVERS cannot be won with that margin u allotted Jonathan but let's just leave it so, also with latest report from ekiti state, its dicey.....these are my observations

I like your objective input.

On the turn out for the election, we cannot really determine. So, I just used a percentage across the board.

Adamawa was won by GEJ in 2011 by only small margin (56%) and with what is happening now, I don't see any reason why Buhari will not win the state. Same goes for Taraba which he also won by 61% the.

I know Jonathan will not likely win Lagos but As I said, I was looking for a worst case scenario that could make in win fairly. It is the same reason I have imagined him winning the North Central. Not that he will actually win there.

Op, your predictions are close to what the 2015 presidential election will look like. There is no doubt that gej will clinch se/ss votes irrespective of buhari followers in the respective regions. It is also a known fact that buhari will also clinch the ne/nw votes irrespective of gej followers in the regions.

Now this will certainly leave the SW/NC as the battle grounds for both parties.
The NC comprises of states like;

1• Niger state = buhari will win there(APC)
2• Plateau state = gej will win there(PDP)
3• Kwara state = buhari will win there(APC)
4• Nassarawa = buhari will win there(APC)
5• Benue state = gej will win there(PDP)
6• Kogi state = this state can be won be either buhari/gej... If the religion factor will show its face, then buhari will win the state because there are more muslims in kogi state than christians....
7• Fct = gej will win there


Now let's come down to South west. Lagos will surely go to APC irrespective of the numbers of igbos that will vote for gej and some yoruba folks that will vote for him.. People we are talking about tinubu's home, the archietect of the whole APC idea. Fashola isn't left out too. They will deliver the lagosians votes in favour of APC

Then let me move to my home state which is OYO, there is no two ways about it, APC rules here and pdp won't win a single local government here.

Ekiti state might likely go to PDP because of the fayose factor, that niggur is a fighter and will do everything possible to deliver ekiti votes to gej.

OSUN state has always being anti-pdp, so I don't see pdp winning there.

Ondo state is a 50/50 state, anybody can clinch the state between buhari and gej

OGUN state is also like ondo state, is a 50/50 thing between APC and PDP. Though I see APC clinching the state if they upgrade their campaign in the state.


Well in all, the winner of 2015 election will be decided by odua-states this time around.


P.S• This is my own opinion which might likely be what we will see in 2015 and I didn't declare any winner because I know is going to be a tight race between the two major aspirants.

And people should not forget that 2015 election will be entirely different from the previous elections we had. Next year, the election will solely be between two political parties(APC and PDP), not like the previous ones that were between many political parties.


The oughts that might favor Buhari will basically be the popularity votes he will get. North west voting block alone is bigger than south-south and south-east voting block combine

what an unbiased and critically examined analysis....
but who cares

LET THE eWar begin..
mine is just to pose with GEJs mask and laugh

@ kastonkastrol,

Your analysis is spot on except that of Ogun state. I don't see GEJ getting anything close to 30% of the votes from there. This is the state of Osinbajo who's the running mate to Buhari. Obasanjo may be loathed by the Yorubas and even at home but you can't dismiss his influence as well in the forthcoming election.

PassingShot:
@ kastonkastrol,

Your analysis is spot on except that of Ogun state. I don't see GEJ getting anything close to 30% of the votes from there. This is the state of Osinbajo who's the running mate to Buhari. Obasanjo may be loathed by the Yorubas and even at home but you can't dismiss his influence as well in the forthcoming election.

oh I entirely forgot that osinbajo is from ogun state. Lol

Btw, under which political party are you putting obasanjo? Apc or Pdp?

kastonkastrol:
oh I entirely forgot that osinbajo is from ogun state. Lol

Btw, under which political party are you putting obasanjo? Apc or Pdp?

Well, I think he will side with anyone but GEJ.

Which part of Oyo state are you from? I'm from Ibadan.