chukwudi44:


I don't need to prove anything for you.Just sit and wait when GEJ is declared winner go and commit suicide.

I repeat whatever you post on this site will not affect the election results.

If GEJ is declared the winner, I won't commit suicide.


Would you commit suicide if GMB is declared winner? I'm waiting for your answer.

kastonkastrol:
Op, your predictions are close to what the 2015 presidential election will look like. There is no doubt that gej will clinch se/ss votes irrespective of buhari followers in the respective regions. It is also a known fact that buhari will also clinch the ne/nw votes irrespective of gej followers in the regions.

Now this will certainly leave the SW/NC as the battle grounds for both parties.
The NC comprises of states like;

1• Niger state = buhari will win there(APC)
2• Plateau state = gej will win there(PDP)
3• Kwara state = buhari will win there(APC)
4• Nassarawa = buhari will win there(APC)
5• Benue state = gej will win there(PDP)
6• Kogi state = this state can be won be either buhari/gej... If the religion factor will show its face, then buhari will win the state because there are more muslims in kogi state than christians....
7• Fct = gej will win there


Now let's come down to South west. Lagos will surely go to APC irrespective of the numbers of igbos that will vote for gej and some yoruba folks that will vote for him.. People we are talking about tinubu's home, the archietect of the whole APC idea. Fashola isn't left out too. They will deliver the lagosians votes in favour of APC

Then let me move to my home state which is OYO, there is no two ways about it, APC rules here and pdp won't win a single local government here.

Ekiti state might likely go to PDP because of the fayose factor, that niggur is a fighter and will do everything possible to deliver ekiti votes to gej.

OSUN state has always being anti-pdp, so I don't see pdp winning there.

Ondo state is a 50/50 state, anybody can clinch the state between buhari and gej

OGUN state is also like ondo state, is a 50/50 thing between APC and PDP. Though I see APC clinching the state if they upgrade their campaign in the state.


Well in all, the winner of 2015 election will be decided by odua-states this time around.


P.S• This is my own opinion which might likely be what we will see in 2015 and I didn't declare any winner because I know is going to be a tight race between the two major aspirants.

And people should not forget that 2015 election will be entirely different from the previous elections we had. Next year, the election will solely be between two political parties(APC and PDP), not like the previous ones that were between many political parties.


The oughts that might favor Buhari will basically be the popularity votes he will get. North west voting block alone is bigger than south-south and south-east voting block combine

You are very close to what is most likely going to play out in 2015.

With those tiny transistors radio that you see any northerner going around with.....news travel up north than what the Internet pass around.

I think if votes actually counts in 2015......Buhari may just clinch the popular votes this time around.

PassingShot:
@ kastonkastrol,
Your analysis is spot on except that of Ogun state. I don't see GEJ getting anything close to 30% of the votes from there. This is the state of Osinbajo who's the running mate to Buhari. Obasanjo may be loathed by the Yorubas and even at home but you can't dismiss his influence as well in the forthcoming election.

So in ur mind OBJ is supporting APC? I very much doubt that in view that OBJ has decided to take a backseat whilst he does some underground work with the Monarchs of Ogun.


OBJ like IBB, dont want to see a Buhari Presidency. Ogun is predominantly a Christian state and i doubt Buhari even with the RCCG Pastor can win Ogun.


Not with the level of investment from GEJ in that state. Ogun monarchs are vey much on parallel with Tinubu. Febe 2015 will be a rude awakening for APC e-rats.

waternogeteneny:



So in ur mind OBJ is supporting APC? I very much doubt that in view that OBJ has decided to take a backseat whilst he does some underground work with the Monarchs of Ogun.


OBJ like IBB, dont want to see a Buhari Presidency. Ogun is predominantly a Christian state and i doubt Buhari even with the RCCG Pastor can win Ogun.


Not with the level of investment from GEJ in that state. Ogun monarchs are vey much on parallel with Tinubu. Febe 2015 will be a rude awakening for APC e-rats.

May it be a rude awakening for PDP e-pigs! Amen.

waternogeteneny:



So in ur mind OBJ is supporting APC? I very much doubt that in view that OBJ has decided to take a backseat whilst he does some underground work with the Monarchs of Ogun.


OBJ like IBB, dont want to see a Buhari Presidency. Ogun is predominantly a Christian state and i doubt Buhari even with the RCCG Pastor can win Ogun.


Not with the level of investment from GEJ in that state. Ogun monarchs are vey much on parallel with Tinubu. Febe 2015 will be a rude awakening for APC e-rats.

Some of you just write whatever comes from the top of your head and you only believe.

You conducted a census to come to that ridiculous assertion about Ogun been a predominantly a Christian state?

All you've written up there has nothing to do with that is on ground....but your fantasy.

PassingShot:

May it be a rude awakening for PDP e-pigs! Amen.

ilugunboy:



Some of you just write whatever comes from the top of your head and you only believe.

You conducted a census to come to that ridiculous assertion about Ogun been a predominantly a Christian state?

All you've written up there has nothing to do with that is on ground....but your fantasy.

Tell us wat is on ground? GEJ must die? To deceive others, is not too bad, but to deceive urself, now that is very bad in fact serious.

Provide credible source to dispute my assertions?

waternogeteneny:







Tell us wat is on ground? GEJ must die? To decieve others is not too bad but to decieve urself, now that is very bad.

What is on ground is that they will vote for GMB and PYO and wait for Asari Dokubo to come and destroy the SW as he boasted to do if GEJ loses in 2015.

chukwudi44:


The guy is a very big fool. I wonder how he thinks this useless propaganda will serve his paymasters? Allocating baseless number of votes to the fanatic on social media Will never win the elections for him.

No matter what is posted on social media, the person taking the presidential oath of office on May 29 2015 will be the person inec announces as the winner and nothing more.If you like give Buhari 100% across the 36 states on social media. It doesn't change a thing

Were you specially trained in a college for insults? I just like to know sha even though I am immune to insults from untrained empty heads!

I also hope that you will not commit suicide if Buhari is declared winner next year. Please stop considering it. It's not worth it.

ilugunboy:


What is on ground is that they will vote for GMB and PYO and wait for Asari Dokubo to come and destroy the SW as he boasted to do if GEJ loses in 2015.

Provide credible source to dispute my assertions?

Are the Obas in Ogun in agreement with Tinubu? No! Will OBJ ever support Tinubu APC aginst his PDP? No!

Has GEJ invested in Oyo/Ogun axis? Yes! Is the investment visible to people there? Yes!

Are the people of Ogun predominantly christian? Yes!


Whilst many attend RCCG, Cele and Anglican Church, RCCG and Winners general overseers have already endorsed GEJ.


GEJ has all the southwest states except Osun as it stands. GEJ has Kogi too.

waternogeteneny:



Provide credible source to dispute my assertions?

Are the Obas in Ogun in agreement with Tinubu? No! Will OBJ ever support Tinubu APC aginst his PDP? No!

Has GEJ invested in Oyo/Ogun axis? Yes!

Are the people of Ogun predominantly christian? Whilst many attend RCCG, Cele and Anglican Church, RCCG and Winners general overseers have already endorsed GEJ.


GEJ has all the southwest states except Osun as it stands. GEJ has Kogi too.

Keep deceiving yourself.....when you are serious....I will engage you.

ilugunboy:


Keep deceiving yourself.....when you are serious....I will engage you.

Provide credible source to dispute my assertions?

Are the Obas in Ogun in agreement with Tinubu? No! Will OBJ ever support Tinubu APC aginst his PDP? No!

Has GEJ invested in Oyo/Ogun axis? Yes! Is the investment visible to people there? Yes!

Are the people of Ogun predominantly christian? Yes!


Whilst many attend RCCG, Cele and Anglican Church, RCCG and Winners general overseers have already endorsed GEJ.


GEJ has all the southwest states except Osun as it stands. GEJ has Kogi too.

ilugunboy:



You are very close to what is most likely going to play out in 2015.

With those tiny transistors radio that you see any northerner going around with.....news travel up north than what the Internet pass around.

I think if votes actually counts in 2015......Buhari may just clinch the popular votes this time around.

LWKMD chai so transistor radio been no de for north in 2011 abi?

waternogeteneny:


Provide credible source to dispute my assertions?

Are the Obas in Ogun in agreement with Tinubu? No! Will OBJ ever support Tinubu APC aginst his PDP? No!

Has GEJ invested in Oyo/Ogun axis? Yes! Is the investment visible to people there? Yes!

Are the people of Ogun predominantly christian? Yes!


Whilst many attend RCCG, Cele and Anglican Church, RCCG and Winners general overseers have already endorsed GEJ.


GEJ has all the southwest states except Osun as it stands. GEJ has Kogi too.

All this Rccg stuffs makes me laugh.That church is actually less than 5% of the Nigerian Christian population. The Catholic church alone is about 5 times the size of the Rccg

chukwudi44:


LWKMD chai so transistor radio been no de for north in 2011 abi?

Chukwudi my friend......be afraid....GEJ is going....the prognosis is not looking good for him.

The governors in the North that helped him out in 2011 can't do that again.....I was listening to Lamido's PDP speech yesterday, asking GEJ to call Asari to order before thinking of winning.....and that is a staunch PDP governor.

chukwudi44:


All this Rccg stuffs makes me laugh.That church is actually less than 5% of the Nigerian Christian population. The Catholic church alone is about 5 times the size of the Rccg

True but Yorubas attend that church alot, particularly the ones from Ogun (Ijebu) and i think it is the most widespread in Nigeria. That church can find votes in Nigeria, from areas u haven't heard.

But as u say it is less than 1% of the votes, as other christian groups are in play in the southwest. We need all their votes to win Christian Ogun.

D scenarios this time around are different from 2011 and dese are what shd make d gej's camp very nervous.
- There are basically 2major parties this time around pdp and apc.D last time around parties like cpc,acn caused d dilution of votes dat apc may likely get now.
-With a larger umbrella in apc,d party has resources and personel to station agents in areas d other parties cudnt d last time around.Majorly in d ss and se.What impact if any wud dis av if many agree gej wud win dese zones?It wudnt prevent a gej victory in these places but it wud greatly reduce d margin of inflated votes whc wud go a long way in d overall tally.Imagine a situation where turnout was around 80% in some states there wt @pdp getting 90%.80% voter turn out doesn't happen,these were rigged votes.In other states average turn out was a more realistic 52%
-D introduction of PVC is a very significant move dat inec shd b applauded for.It has given us a more accurate numb of voters dan d spurious figures previously used and if inec follows thru wt ensuring only properly identified pple wt pvcs are allowed to vote,den many shock await many candidates.
-All in all,this election is surprisingly buhari's to lose:His strongholds av more electoral votes,he wud win 2 of d highest states kano and lagos and d margins of victory for gej in d ss and se evn wt 90% wud not have much impact on d overall tally.Finally some of d states in d swest dat voted gej last time now av a rallying point in buhari/osinbanjo.

waternogeteneny:


True but Yorubas attend that church alot, particularly the ones from Ogun (Ijebu) and i think it is the most widespread in Nigeria. That church can find votes in Nigeria, from areas u haven't heard.

But as u say it is less than 1% of the votes, as other christian groups are in play in the southwest. We need all their votes to win Christian Ogun.

The Catholic church is the most widespread.There is no interior village you Will not find them.Rccg is mainly found in the sw and does not constitute majority of any state.

@passingshot. No one prays for violence, but the right thing(an election free of rigging) must be done. That's the only way we can avert violence. Your prediction might come through because i've seen gej in my dream in a way that depict a downfall of a leader. My dreams are not to be taken for jokes.

chukwudi44:


The Catholic church is the most widespread.There is no interior village you Will not find them.Rccg is mainly found in the sw and does not constitute majority of any state.

We are focused on the southwest and in particular Ogun. No dispute that the Catholic church is the most widespread in Nigeria even the southwest region, but this RCCG among the evangelical churches is a major christian organisation that cannot be overlooked, alongside winners and kicc. They are the big three in the modern evangelical movement.

Catholic and Anglican Church are still the largest Christian organisation in Nigeria.

ilugunboy:


Chukwudi my friend......be afraid....GEJ is going....the prognosis is not looking good for him.

The governors in the North that helped him out in 2011 can't do that again.....I was listening to Lamido's PDP speech yesterday, asking GEJ to call Asari to order before thinking of winning.....and that is a staunch PDP governor.

Prognosis indeed. If GEJ wants to rig he would not need the governor's help to do it.Otherwise governors have just one vote.No matter what party lamido supports Apc will surely win in jigawa.same thing applies in rivers where PDP Will surely carry the day irrespective of where Amaechi supports

Op, you've done a great job.

looks somewhat like what i predicted for jonathan yesterday too : SW 35% SS 85% SE 90% NW 15% NE 25% NC 45%.

My disagreement with your projections is the voters turn out .

voters turn out for sw (50%) SS (60%) SE(50%) NW (45%) NE (35%) NC (45%).

Jonathan will perform better in the NE than the NW , no thanks to the crisis in Borno and Yobe, which are strong APC states but ravaged by the bh war with lots of IDPs, he will get leverage with Taraba.

The North central is now thrown open, i feel it will be close or ApC have a slight edge, with kwara and Nassarawa now in APC hands , and APC seems to be getting stronger in Kogi and Benue. Niger will go to APC in 2015, only Plateau is certain for PDP.

waternogeteneny:


We are focused on the southwest and in particular Ogun. No dispute that the Catholic church is the most widespread in Nigeria even the southwest region but this RCCG among the evangelical churches is a major christian organisation that cannot be overlooked alongside winners and kicc. They are the big three in the modern evangelical movement.

Kicc population is infinitesimal, I think cele and Baptist church also have high population in the sw but they are not as noisy as these pentecostals. I actually think we have more baptists than winner's members

waternogeteneny:
If this is the lie u have been selling to Buhari then some of u will have to run for ur dear life after Feb 2015.


How can Buhari win Ondo without Mimiko support. Let us not even talk about Oyo and start with Ogun.



Buhari is sure to win one state in the southwest and dat is Osun but GEJ will still get alot of votes from Osun.



GEJ will win Ondo, Oyo, Ogun and Kogi[/b]

Just to point out the fallacy in your comment.... You claimed Buhari can not win in Ondo without the support of Mimiko and went ahead to say GEJ will win in Oyo and Ogun. So Ajimobi and Amosun are supporters of GEJ?

Note: Mimiko's influence in Ondo is overrated. He's serving his second term already. Amosun and Ajimobi are doing aggressive campaigns for second term in their states which will benefit the party and Buhari in the polls.

chukwudi44:


Kicc population is infinitesimal, I think cele and Baptist church also have high population in the sw but they are not as noisy as these pentecostals. I actually think we have more baptists than winner's members

Very true that. Cele is very huge in Ogun and the southwest region alongside Baptist church but Catholic and Anglican Church are still the largest Christian organisation in Nigeria.

Blainz:


Just to point out the fallacy in your comment.... You claimed Buhari can not win in Ondo without the support of Mimiko and went ahead to say GEJ will win in Oyo and Ogun. So Ajimobi and Amosun are supporters of GEJ?

Note: Mimiko's influence in Ondo is overrated. He's serving his second term already. Amosun and Ajimobi are doing aggressive campaigns for second term in their states which will benefit the party and Buhari in the polls.

U sir need to google the meaning of this word fast.[size=28pt]incumbency![/size]


and for ur info, PDP is set to reclaim all the south west states currently at the hands of APC.

emiye:
Op, you've done a great job.

looks somewhat like what i predicted for jonathan yesterday too : SW 35% SS 85% SE 90% NW 15% NE 25% NC 45%.

My disagreement with your projections is the voters turn out .

voters turn out for sw (50%) SS (60%) SE(50%) NW (45%) NE (35%) NC (45%).

Jonathan will perform better in the NE than the NW , no thanks to the crisis in Borno and Yobe, which are strong APC states but ravaged by the bh war with lots of IDPs, he will get leverage with Taraba.

The North central is now thrown open, i feel it will be close or ApC have a slight edge, with kwara and Nassarawa now in APC hands , and APC seems to be getting stronger in Kogi and Benue. Niger will go to APC in 2015, only Plateau

is certain for PDP.

APC getting stronger in benue? It is very much easier for Buhari to win in the se/as than for him to win in benue state. Do you seriously expect benue to vote for a fulani man after what they have passed through in the last few years? Also in nassarawa you expect eggons to vote for a fulani man? Are you for real?

PassingShot:


Don't hyperventilate! You do that a lot. Is it a sign of frustration?

My brother Passingshot, I like your guts, I love the way you exude with confidence, however, you must learn to listen to 'Voices of Reasons' sometimes, because it will guide you to make better and well articulated predictions in the future. It seems you are improving at least going by this predictions when compared to the first one you gave.

chukwudi44:


Kicc population is infinitesimal, I think cele and Baptist church also have high population in the sw but they are not as noisy as these pentecostals. I actually think we have more baptists than winner's members

It is South west (Yoruba people) we are talking about here remember? Not Ibos, Ijaws or calabar people!
Forget all these your permutations on religious lines in the south west! My people don't give a fc.uk about the religion of who governs them! Go and check the political history of the south west, majority of south west leaders and people have mixed religious families.
Keep your brain-washed religious politics in the south east!

Blainz:


It is South west (Yoruba people) we are talking about here remember? Not Ibos, Ijaws or calabar people!
Forget all these your permutations on religious lines in the south west! My people don't give a fc.uk about the religion of who governs them! Go and check the political history of the south west, majority of the south west leaders and people have mixed religious families.
Keep your brain-washed religious politics in the south east!

Last time I checked, it was not igbos that were going to school in osun with Baptist choir gowns and masquerades!!!! Why didn't your party go ahead with the muslim-muslim ticket since religion didn't matter in the sw?

chukwudi44:


Prognosis indeed. If GEJ wants to rig he would not need the governor's help to do it.Otherwise governors have just one vote.No matter what party lamido supports Apc will surely win in jigawa.same thing applies in rivers where PDP Will surely carry the day irrespective of where Amaechi supports

One thing that gives me comfort is that you have NEVER give an accurate political prediction...

You always lose...you are a loser..

tomakint:

My brother Passingshot, I like your guts, I love the way you exude with confidence, however, you must learn to listen to 'Voices of Reasons' sometimes, because it will guide you to make better and well articulated predictions in the future. It seems you are improving at least going by this predictions when compared to the first one you gave.

Thank you.

But are there any "Voice of Reason" I've failed to heed. I am always open to quality and objective debates and that's why you see this revised prediction.