chukwudi44:


APC getting stronger in benue? It is very much easier for Buhari to win in the se/as than for him to win in benue state. Do you seriously expect benue to vote for a fulani man after what they have passed through in the last few years? Also in nassarawa you expect eggons to vote for a fulani man? Are you for real?

Yes , APC is stronger. a stronger platform does magic than the overrated tribal bigotry . 2 fulani men had roughly 35% of benue vote in 2011 (ribadu/buhari). Buhari had roughly 40% of votes in Nassarawa, with the aid of APC platform, and a current APC governor, he will perform better.

chukwudi44:


APC getting stronger in benue? It is very much easier for Buhari to win in the se/as than for him to win in benue state. Do you seriously expect benue to vote for a fulani man after what they have passed through in the last few years? Also in nassarawa you expect eggons to vote for a fulani man? Are you for real?

But PDP barely won Benue (66%) and Nassarawa (59%) in 2011! So it is still a close call in those two states.

ilugunboy:


Keep deceiving yourself.....when you are serious....I will engage you.

Ilugun you know waternogetenemy got you there with that brilliant and simple analysis! As a man, I was expecting you to counter him with credible and reliable arguments......don't chicken out now please!

tomakint:

Ilugun you know waternogetenemy got you there with that brilliant and simple analysis! As a man, I was expecting you to counter him with credible and reliable arguments......don't chicken out now please!

So you believe that there are more christians in Ogun than Muslims?....well I'm not surprise

....while I don't like discussing politics mix with religion...I would say that assertion is a fat lie.

Cluelessness is an attribute of most GEJ supporters.

ilugunboy:


One thing that gives me comfort is that you have NEVER give an accurate political prediction...

You always lose...you are a loser..

But I told you ngige and fayemi would lose woefully and they did

chukwudi44:


But I told you ngige and fayemi would lose woefully and they did

I can't remember you predicting Ekiti's election....but I rmembered very well your prediction that Ihedioha will be Speaker by December 3rd.

PassingShot:


But PDP barely won Benue (66%) and Nassarawa (59%) in 2011! So it is still a close call in those two states.

I always believe in action and not noise By February 2015,we will sit and analyse the results. What I know is that it is easier for Buhari to win in the ss/se than for him to win in benue state

chukwudi44:


I always believe in action and not noise By February 2015,we will sit and analyse the results. What I know is that it is easier for Buhari to win in the ss/se than for him to win in benue state

But facts don't lie? Or do they? I have just given you what happened in the last election and you're ranting!

ilugunboy:


I can't remember you predicting Ekiti's election....but I rmembered very well your prediction that Ihedioha will be Speaker by December 3rd.

I remember it very well, you can search my posts. I also remember telling you that apc will never float a Muslim-Muslim ticket and you were arguing seriously with me that fashola Will be Buhari's running mate

PassingShot:


But facts don't lie? Or do they? I have just given you what happened in the last election and you're ranting!

Did GEJ not win Buhari in the last election too? So why are we here arguing?

ilugunboy:


So you believe that there are more christians in Ogun than Muslims?....well I'm not surprise

....while I don't like discussing politics mix with religion...I would say that assertion is a fat lie.

Cluelessness is an attribute of most GEJ supporters.

Nobody disputes that Muslim are not in Ogun, but we make bold that Ogun State is Predominantly Christain unlike Oyo.


Since Buhari choose an RCCG pastor for Ogun in attempt to get the Christain vote we are saying that does votes are already secured for GEJ and even the muslim votes in the state via the traditioanl channels or institutions held by the Obas who run contrary to Tinubu.

waternogeteneny:


Nobody disputes that Muslim are not in Ogun, but we make bold that Ogun State is Predominantly Christain unlike Oyo.


Since

Stop quoting me.....I don't have the leisure of time to keep replying to wild and unverifiable crap.

ilugunboy:

So you believe that there are more christians in Ogun than Muslims?....well I'm not surprise .

To answer you, sometimes ago I was based in Ilorin and this same debates came up and after much researches from my team then, we discovered that Christians are more. The influence of Winners, ECWA and CAC in Ilorin is too much to resist. Kaduna comes next, are you aware that Christians are more than Muslims in this State. My brother, things are changing...

ilugunboy:


Stop quoting me.....I don't have the leisure of time to keep replying to wild and unverifiable crap.

Run along sore loser. Whining go kill some of una after Feb 2015

Your analysis is too optimistic for Jonathan and pessimistic for Buhari. Please don't base anything on results of 2011, you will be shocked and a master mind should never be shocked.

First of all, Tinubu is not the driver of Buhari's popularity in the SW, he is merely a benefactor of it. Most people do not understand Nigeria and what it is and used to be. During Buhari/Idiagnon regime, the seat of power was at Dodan Barracks, Lagos not Abuja. The FG even then had been dominated by northerners but was essentially based in Lagos in the SW so the nature, power and influence of the people governing then were visible to the people of thenSW. Now last week was the umpteenth time I would talk to an ordinary taxi driver and endure him regaling me of stories of the anti corruption drive, discipline and egalitarian promise that the Buharo/Idiagbon regime provided to Nigeria and for Christ sakes this are just semi illiterate drivers. So let us get it out of the way and admit that Buhari has a base in the SW not beholden to Tinubu who has corruption baggage.

Now for the North Central, who are the drivers here?. The drivers are retired military officers and top civil servants. To think these people (mostly Christian) so traumatised by the Boko haram crisis would foolishly flock to Jonathan as a saviour is over simplifying issues. For one thing, Jona has not done much to protect anybody there which fact is not lost on the intelligent civil servants and veterans of the Liberian war who make up the opinion makers. Having a redeemed pastor as VP destroys a lot of negative stereotyping of Buhari here.

For South South which is Jonathan's second most important base (the SE is actually his most important base, never that mind he is Ijaw), you have to be unwitting about the diversity of the region to give too much to Jonathan in this section. Akwa Ibom, Rivers and Delta ethnic nationalities are very divided about whether they should throw all into the Ijaw agenda, all the stories of Tom Polo and his gunboats that should be for the Nigerian Navy where do you think they are coming from? Please dont forget that all Jonathan has if he wins at all is just four years. Meanwhile there is the Ijaw-Itsekiri tension is age old, the Upland- Riverine tension in Rivers state is likely to cost the PDP the governorship of that state and I know what aim talking about, I am posting this from Portharcourt. Crops Rivers PDP also has issues with some people doing the winner takes all kind of politics. In all these, all thePreidént has to bargain and close the gaps in his base is money. Charisma and gravitas are almost non existent in him.

So the fair balance of forces appears as follows

NW Buhari
NC Buhari 60 Jonathan 40
SW Buhari 55 Jonathan 45
NE Buhari 95. Jonathan 5
SE Buhari 20 Jonathan 80
SS Buhari 45 Jonathan 55

chukwudi44:


Did GEJ not win Buhari in the last election too? So why are we here arguing?

And that's what I've told you. That the margin was small and Buhari is running on APC and not CPC which had no structure. Btw, I benue to Jonathan but I believe Buhari has a chance to win in Nassarawa for the reasons I have enumerated earlier.

chukwudi44:


I remember it very well, you can search my posts. I also remember telling you that apc will never float a Muslim-Muslim ticket and you were arguing seriously with me that fashola Will be Buhari's running mate

Now that is funny....I should search your post to prove what?

Adminisher:
Your analysis is too optimistic for Jonathan and pessimistic for Buhari.

It was deliberate. If you read my OP, I said I was looking for a possibility of Jonathan winning FAIRLY without the usual massive rigging of PDP.

tomakint:

To answer you, sometimes ago I was based in Ilorin and this same debates came up and after much researches from my team then, we discovered that Christians are more. The influence of Winners, ECWA and CAC in Ilorin is too much to resist. Kaduna comes next, are you aware that Christians are more than Muslims in this State. My brother, things are changing...

There is no demographic counting to agree to that......in my fair guess....the indigenous population of Ogun state is fairly spread between Christians....Muslims and traditional worshippers.

ilugunboy:


There is no demographic counting to agree to that......in my fair guess....the indigenous population of Ogun state is fairly spread between Christians....Muslims and traditional worshippers.

Nobody disputes that Muslim are in Ogun, but we make bold that Ogun State is Predominantly Christain unlike Oyo.

PassingShot:


And that's what I've told you. That the margin was small and Buhari is running on APC and not CPC which had no structure. Btw, I benue to Jonathan but I believe Buhari has a chance to win in Nassarawa for the reasons I have enumerated earlier.

Who told you APC had no structures? Buhari's running mate bakare was even far more popular than the virtually unknown osibanjo

PassingShot:


It was deliberate. If you read my OP, I said I was looking for a possibility of Jonathan winning FAIRLY without the usual massive rigging of PDP.

So when GEJ wins, it is rigging abi? But free and fair when Buhari wins right?

Adminisher:
Your analysis is too optimistic for Jonathan and pessimistic for Buhari. Please don't base anything on results of 2011, you will be shocked and a master mind should never be shocked.

First of all, Tinubu is not the driver of Buhari's popularity in the SW, he is merely a benefactor of it. Most people do not understand Nigeria and what it is and used to be. During Buhari/Idiagnon regime, the seat of power was at Dodan Barracks, Lagos not Abuja. The FG even then had been dominated by northerners but was essentially based in Lagos in the SW so the nature, power and influence of the people governing then were visible to the people of thenSW. Now last week was the umpteenth time I would talk to an ordinary taxi driver and endure him regaling me of stories of the anti corruption drive, discipline and egalitarian promise that the Buharo/Idiagbon regime provided to Nigeria and for Christ sakes this are just semi illiterate drivers. So let us get it out of the way and admit that Buhari has a base in the SW not beholden to Tinubu who has corruption baggage.

Now for the North Central, who are the drivers here?. The drivers are retired military officers and top civil servants. To think these people (mostly Christian) so traumatised by the Boko haram crisis would foolishly flock to Jonathan as a saviour is over simplifying issues. For one thing, Jona has not done much to protect anybody there which fact is not lost on the intelligent civil servants and veterans of the Liberian war who make up the opinion makers. Having a redeemed pastor as VP destroys a lot of negative stereotyping of Buhari here.

For South South which is Jonathan's second most important base (the SE is actually his most important base, never that he is Ijaw), you have to be unwitting about the diversity of the region to give too much to Jonathan in this section. Akwa Ibom, Rivers and Delta ethnic nationalities are very divided about whether they should throw all into the Ijaw agenda. Please dont forget that all Jonathan has if he wins at all is just four years. Meanwhile there is the Ijaw-Itsekiri tension why is age old, the Upland- Riverine tension in Rivers state is likely to cost the PDP the governorship of that state and I know what aim talking about, I am posting this from Portharcourt. Crops Rivers PDP also has issues with some people doing the winner takes all kind of politics. In all these, all thePreidént has to bargain and close the gaps in his base is money. Charisma and gravitas are almost non existent in him.

So the fair balance of forces appears as follows

NW Buhari
NC Buhari 60 Jonathan 40
SW Buhari 55 Jonathan 45
NE Buhari 95. Jonathan 5
SE Buhari 20 Jonathan 80
SS Buhari 45 Jonathan 55

Very funny analysis, u peeps just wake up and post what you like on social media. Buhari gets 100% in the nw,20% in the se and 45% in the ss? Bros are you for real?

waternogeteneny:


Nobody disputes that Muslim are in Ogun, but we make bold that Ogun State is Predominantly Christain unlike Oyo.

And in your sick mind you think the people of Ogun will vote for GEJ just because he is a christian and not because of his performance.

Were the Ogun PDP stalwarts that despoiled the state not christians? E.g Obasanjo, Gbenga Daniels, Dimeji Bankole etc

chukwudi44:


Who told you APC had no structures? Buhari's running mate bakare was even far more popular than the virtually unknown osibanjo

As at 2011 there was nothing like APC. BUHARI AND bakare ran under the platform of CPC. what is now known as APC is the merger between CPC, ACN, ANPP and Okoroca's faction APGA

Jakpon:
And in your sick mind you think the people of Ogun will vote for GEJ just because ge is a christian and not because his performance.

Were the Ogun PDP stalwarts that despoiled the state not christians? E.g Obasanjo, Gbenga Daniels, Dimeji Bankole etc

Like i said earlier, GEJ has invested in Ogun and Oyo axis and that investment is visible to the people of Ogun and Oyo.


OBJ will never work for Tinubu APC over his PDP, regardless of the public show he may put up to decieve people.


The Obas in yorubaland feel intimidated and cornered by Tinubu and presently run contrary to Tinubu, all the PDP candidate in the remaining state reflects this.


Not only will Buhari lose the south west, APC will lose the south west to PDP IN 2015.



This analysis is the reason illugun that was the first to quote me on this thread is now whining. Provide credible source to dispute this please!

people trying to bring all the ethnic and religion divide into everything. Mind you(bigots), the south-south is not as united as you bigots want to make everybody feel. the SS is actually the most divided region in Nigeria.
Apart from ijaw nation, who again is blowing the gej trumpet so loud in SS? Majority of people singing the gej praises in the SS are doing it because of the christianity factor not because of a "united SS" region.

@passingshot, maybe i will PM you about my locality

waternogeteneny:



Like i said earlier, GEJ has invested in Ogun and Oyo axis and that investment is visible to the people of Ogun and Oyo.


OBJ will never work for Tinubu APC over his PDP, regardless of the public show he may put up to decieve people.


The Obas in yorubaland feel intimidated and cornered by Tinubu and presently run contrary to Tinubu, all the PDP candidate in the remaining state reflects this.


Not only will Buhari lose the south west, APC will lose the south west to PDP IN 2015.



This analysis is the reason illugun that was the first to quote me on this thread is now whining. Provide credible source to duispute this please!

1) mention one project that jonathan started, completed and commissioned in Ogun state within the last 5years

2) Obj does not need to 'work' with Tinubu. Obj was still an active member of the PDP when Tinubu's ACN dislodged PDP out of the southwest

3) How did you come about the assertion that he Yoruba Obas feel intimidated? Oba Rilwan Akiolu of Lagos endorsed APC and Ambode; Alake of Egba and Awujale Sikiru Adetona of Ijebu are solidly behinde Amosun; Alaafin Oyo has a Son in Ajimobi's government Cabinet; the Soun of Ogbomoso's son is contesting under the platform of the APC for Ogbomoso federal constituency. The Oni of Ife is the only pro-PDP Oba in
Yorubaland.

4) buhari and osinbajo would win in the southwest and in the whole federation. The only vote gej will get would be from ibos like you

ilugunboy:


There is no demographic counting to agree to that......in my fair guess....the indigenous population of Ogun state is fairly spread between Christians....Muslims and traditional worshippers.

Agreed, I personally don't have the accurate measurement to know which is more.....however, when you factor in the rate at which Muslims and Traditionalists are converting to Christianity then you'll understand my point! Happy New Year in Advance Bro!

tomakint:

Agreed, I personally don't have the accurate measurement to know which is more.....however, when you factor in the rate at which Muslims and Traditionalists are converting to Christianity then you'll understand my point! Happy New Year in Advance Bro!

Happy new year in advance brov..

chukwudi44:


So when GEJ wins, it is rigging abi? But free and fair when Buhari wins right?

My statement is laden with more meaning than meets your eyes.