Jonathan would win but the difference in votes would not be much. PDP is the only party with structure nationwide and this is key to winning elections. I am very sure that Jonathan would deploy enough security agents in the North making it difficult for Buhari agents to rig the elections or come up with inflated votes. Don't forget the APC Governors are running for their own elections and would be more interested in securing their position than fighting for buhari. The fact that Tinubu neglected the governors in his choice of a deputy for Buhari may count against APC as most APC Governors may not seem to want to spend on his behalf. Jonathan has more spending power and guys that are interested in his continuing will amplify the spending force. The PVC would make it more difficult for cows, cups and spoons to vote in the north making it difficult for election inflation. In the south east, i am yet to see any of Buhari posters and i cannot envisage Jonathan not getting up to 98 percent votes and i wonder who will work for him and protect his interests. One thing i know Jonathan can do is to buy votes in the North which would be deployed to great effect.

PassingShot:
This is a revision to my first prediction of the 2015 presidential Election which was well commented on.

The revision was necessitated by some of the comments received from the first one which you can find here: https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective

OP: You tried by seeking to refine your model but it is tainted by your not forgoing your biases (I understand your intense desire for a Buhari win). I have a couple of observations which you might want to implement to get a far more accurate model.
1. Voter turnout is probably not going to be more than 50 - 60% overall. It will be very low in Yobe, Borno, and Adamawa states, probably in the region of 20 - 30%. You need to account for the impact of voter turnout. It's no use having high number of voters if they will not turn out.
2. Nigerian presidential elections are similar to that of the United States. The requirement for a 25% spread across 24 states is similar to the electoral college votes of the US model. As such, presidential elections are won on a state by state basis (with political, ethnic, and religious factors at play) rather than on a regional basis. For example, even though it looks likely that Buhari will win in Jigawa and Bauchi states and may be in Kaduna states, the incumbent president will secure at least the required 25% or more of votes in those states.

You need to input those variables into your model. I direct you to similar models here on Nairaland: Updated 2011 Election Result Projection Model which accurately forecasted the 2011 election results, for how you ought to approach this issue.

P.S. I have attached the spreadsheet from 2011 for your comparison.

Chaleeee:
There is no way Buhari is winning Ondo State. Reasons are listed below.
1. There is no presence of APC in Ondo State at all. During the last guber elections, ACN which is now APC came a distant 3rd. With the Mimiko (Ondo State Governor) decamping to PDP from LP, it further strengthens GEJ's Chances in the State.

2. Buhari has been campaigning with an undertone of religious bias. The population of Muslims in Ondo state is less than 25% thus APC does not seem to have any bargaining chip in this State.

The party in government at a state will not have much bearings on the outcomes of the presidential elections in each states of the federation.
If the election is free and fair, there are going to be many surprises in many states.
People are getting more enlightened politically this day. I can foresee a lots of alignment and realignment taking place in few weeks from now.
We must get it better this time around.

aletheia:

OP: You tried by seeking to refine your model but it is tainted by your not forgoing your biases (I understand your intense desire for a Buhari win). I have a couple of observations which you might want to implement to get a far more accurate model.
1. Voter turnout is probably not going to be more than 50 - 60% overall. It will be very low in Yobe, Borno, and Adamawa states, probably in the region of 20 - 30%. You need to account for the impact of voter turnout. It's no use having high number of voters if they will not turn out.
2. Nigerian presidential elections are similar to that of the United States. The requirement for a 25% spread across 24 states is similar to the electoral college votes of the US model. As such, presidential elections are won on a state by state basis (with political, ethnic, and religious factors at play) rather than on a regional basis. For example, even though it looks likely that Buhari will win in Jigawa and Bauchi states and may be in Kaduna states, the incumbent president will secure at least the required 25% or more of votes in those states.

You need to input those variables into your model. I direct you to similar models here on Nairaland: Updated 2011 Election Result Projection Model which accurately forecasted the 2011 election results, for how you ought to approach this issue.

P.S. I have attached the spreadsheet from 2011 for your comparison.

I agree the voters turnout should ordinarily be around 50 to 60 percent. Even if I use that across the states, the outcome remains same. My using higher percentage is hinged on the assumption that NW, NE, SS and SE region will want to maximize their numerical values.

You are very wrong to think that voters turnout in Gombe, Bauchi or any other state in the region that craves for powere so badly will be anything around 20 or 30 percent. It doesn't make any sense to want to assume that. So for research purpose you can only assume a uniform percentage which is what I have done.

And our elections do not take the form of US style. In US, there are electoral colleges. The candidtae that wins more electoral colleges in a state wins that state irrespective of the total number of votes he gets. So, a candidate who gets more overall votes may still lose a state to the candidate with less popular votes but has won more electoral colleges. I think it is you who need to allign yourself with how it is done there and know that it is completely different from ours. We don't have electoral colleges here.

And it is even absurd to accuse me of being biased. That should be the last thing any sincere and analytical mind should accuse this exercise of. So I am biased towards Buhari by limiting his win percentage to between 70 and 80 in his stronghold states while Jonathan is unreasonably projected for between 90 and 95% in his own stronghold ? Jesus of Nazareth!

PassingShot:

So for research purpose you can only assume a uniform percentage which is what I have done.

I will have to disagree with this. The point of my observations is to help you refine your model to make it even more accurate. Your reaction truly reveals your emotional bias. A researcher ought to be unbiased in his or assessment. Voter turnout has a differential impact since it varies from state to state. BY ASSUMING A UNIFORM VOTER TURNOUT ACROSS THE 36 STATES, YOU BIAS YOUR MODEL. And I will prove it.

For example, consider that in Lagos, Kano, and Kaduna which are the 3 largest states in terms of voting population, the voter turnout was 32%, 53% and 66% in 2011. Let us assume that this turnout figures remain unchanged for the 2015 elections using the current numbers of registered voters for these 3 states: Lagos (5,426,391) Kano (4,751,818) and Kaduna (3,743,815). This will give us total votes cast in the 3 states respectively as 1,736,445, 2,515,464 and 2,470,918. What becomes immediately apparent here is how despite having the largest number of potential voters, Lagos is lagging behind the other 2 states in actual voters. So low voter turnout in any state hurts dispropotionately the party likely to win that state.
Furthermore, let us also assume that the electorate votes exactly as it did in 2011 for these 3 states and the share of votes for the PDP in the presidential election remains unchanged at 65.9% (Lagos), 16.5% (Kano), and 46.3% (Kaduna). This would yield for these 3 states for the PDP a total vote count of 1,559,864 which is 23% of the votes. Now if hypothetically, turnout in Lagos rises to 50%, and that of Kano and Kaduna drops to 40%, what do you think happens to PDP's share of the votes assuming of course that voting intentions are unchanged? Since you can use a spreadsheet, I am sure you will discover that the numbers change. PDP's votes rise to 2,101,616 (34%) - an increase of 11%.

Do you now see the impact of differential voter turnout? By such fine margins are elections won. Not the broad brush strokes you are painting with.

PassingShot:

You are very wrong to think that voters turnout in Gombe, Bauchi or any other state in the region that craves for powere so badly will be anything around 20 or 30 percent.

This response of yours that I highlighted shows how you are feeding your biases into the model. I specifically said that voter turnout in 3 states Yobe, Borno, and Adamawa - these worst hit by the BH problem would be low. In 2011, these 3 states had voter turnouts 50% or less. Is it in 2015 when the insurgency is worse that the voter turnout will rise to 60 - 70%.
Please be objective.

Most objective thread I have seen on niaraland in a very long time

aletheia:

This response of yours that I highlighted shows how you are feeding your biases into the model. I specifically said that voter turnout in 3 states Yobe, Borno, and Adamawa - these worst hit by the BH problem would be low. In 2011, these 3 states had voter turnouts 50% or less. Is it in 2015 when the insurgency is worse that the voter turnout will rise to 60 - 70%.
Please be objective.

I have also noticed that,as a key issue that should not be underestimated. @op you should know that the probabilities could drastically change if there is voter apathy or security fears around certain northern axis. Particularly the NE. I mean if am to say chances will favor APC if voter apathy is eliminated in the NW and the security improves tremediously in places like Borno & Yobe. Taraba and Adamawa are strong PDP states 25% is assured. Bauchi and Gombe has its issues but I see APC taking a larger chunk.I know last elections the northern turn out was low. I can say that could be the case this year particularly with the awareness and alertness from 4years of Ijaw/SE bashing. I strongly believe people are putting in more ensure that the numbers are higher particularly in state capitals. But in rural communities the power players could pull stuff if they get rewards. APC needs reach the rural areas particularly in the north and wake them from there slumber.

aletheia:

This response of yours that I highlighted shows how you are feeding your biases into the model. I specifically said that voter turnout in 3 states Yobe, Borno, and Adamawa - these worst hit by the BH problem would be low. In 2011, these 3 states had voter turnouts 50% or less. Is it in 2015 when the insurgency is worse that the voter turnout will rise to 60 - 70%.
Please be objective.

I have told you severally the need to use a uniform percentage but you feel it's not right. Forget the reason of insurgency significantly affecting the voters turnout because we will never know how much impact it will have until after the election.

And if for any reason we have to use the last turnout percentages for the states/regions you're talking about, the only sensible thing is to use last turnout percentages for all the states of the federation. And I'm sure you know that they are also in the region of 50 and 60 percentages even in SS/SE. So, what's your point?

aletheia:

I will have to disagree with this. The point of my observations is to help you refine your model to make it even more accurate. Your reaction truly reveals your emotional bias. A researcher ought to be unbiased in his or assessment. Voter turnout has a differential impact since it varies from state to state. BY ASSUMING A UNIFORM VOTER TURNOUT ACROSS THE 36 STATES, YOU BIAS YOUR MODEL. And I will prove it.

For example, consider that in Lagos, Kano, and Kaduna which are the 3 largest states in terms of voting population, the voter turnout was 32%, 53% and 66% in 2011. Let us assume that this turnout figures remain unchanged for the 2015 elections using the current numbers of registered voters for these 3 states: Lagos (5,426,391) Kano (4,751,818) and Kaduna (3,743,815). This will give us total votes cast in the 3 states respectively as 1,736,445, 2,515,464 and 2,470,918. What becomes immediately apparent here is how despite having the largest number of potential voters, Lagos is lagging behind the other 2 states in actual voters. So low voter turnout in any state hurts dispropotionately the party likely to win that state.
Furthermore, let us also assume that the electorate votes exactly as it did in 2011 for these 3 states and the share of votes for the PDP in the presidential election remains unchanged at 65.9% (Lagos), 16.5% (Kano), and 46.3% (Kaduna). This would yield for these 3 states for the PDP a total vote count of 1,559,864 which is 23% of the votes. Now if hypothetically, turnout in Lagos rises to 50%, and that of Kano and Kaduna drops to 40% what do you think happens to PDP's share of the votes assuming of course that voting intentions are unchanged? Since you can use a spreadsheet, I am sure you will discover that the numbers change. PDP's votes rise to 2,101,616 (34%) - an increase of 11%.

Do you now see the impact of differential voter turnout? By such fine margins are elections won. Not the broad brush strokes you are painting with.

The bolded part of your post proves your "unbiased stand" indeed.

You cannot, in your "unbiased thinking", assume that voters turnout will significantly reduce from the last election in the opposition strongholds while assuming it will increase or remain unchanged in the PDP strongholds. There can't be any sensible justification for that.

To also assume that voters will vote exactly as they did in 2011 is being unrealistic and disillusional. What will be the point in engaging in the exercise if all I wanted was to use same voters turnout and assume same voting pattern? If I'd do that, I can as well print out results of last election and present it as a research! Does it even make any sense to you that you do a study without factoring in the realities on ground?

You keep using insurgency as your reason for a drop and I say the determination to return power to the North could motivate them to have a larger turnout this time around. While you would want me to accept your reason for an imagined drop in voters turnout in NE, you fail to see a reason in my point for an improved turnout there! That's hypocritical!

The other sensible thing apart from uniform turnout would be to use the turnout from last election. No drop and no increase anywhere. But you surely cannot assume or use the last voting pattern. Or would you?

chukwudi44:


Who told you APC had no structures? Buhari's running mate bakare was even far more popular than the virtually unknown osibanjo

Take time to read my posts before replying. I said CPC had no structure in 2011. Is that contestable?

ibisko04:

The party in government at a state will not have much bearings on the outcomes of the presidential elections in each states of the federation.
If the election is free and fair, there are going to be many surprises in many states.
People are getting more enlightened politically this day. I can foresee a lots of alignment and realignment taking place in few weeks from now.
We must get it better this time around.

So if the party in government in a state does not determine the result of an election, then it is safe to assume that GEJ will win Sokoto and Katsina then.

Chaleeee:


So if the party in government in a state does not determine the result of an election, then it is safe to assume that GEJ will win Sokoto and Katsina then.

You can judge from 2011 elections. PDP was the party in power in Sokoto, Kano, Niger, Kaduna, Bauchi and many other states in the North. CPC clears the election in all those states. Such scenario is bound to happen again North and South of Nigeria.

Asari Dokubo has spoken!!!! Make una stop all this yeye predictions GEJ is surely comming back in whatever way lol

PassingShot:
The bolded part of your post proves your "unbiased stand" indeed.

^
The bolded part you refer to is this: "Now if hypothetically, turnout in Lagos rises to 50%, and that of Kano and Kaduna drops to 40%". I am thus given to understand that English "follow join your problem". What do you understand by the word "hypothetical"? Your whole attempt at prognostication is hypothetical. Every model is hypothetical. But you are exhibiting a typical Nigerian reaction...unable to understand or take on board constructive criticism. Is there anything in my suggestions that makes your model worse? A good working model must approximate as closely as possible reality and the reality is that voter turnout will vary from state to state. The past elections suggest so. And there is no reason to think it will be different in 2015. Your model is skewed and severely flawed for failing to account for such a critical variable...and it wouldn't take much effort to rectify this flaw.

PassingShot:
Does it even make any sense to you that you do a study without factoring in the realities on ground?

Did you factor in the reality of differential voter turnout? It is erroneous to think that the voter turnout will be the same across board. A simple logical outcome seems to escape you. Not all states have the same numbers of voters. High voter turnout in Ekiti and Bayelsa disproportionately increases their overall votes contribution in comparison to low turnout in Kano and Lagos states. In effect, each state's contribution to the votes total is a weighted average determined by both voter turnout and number of registered votes. This I have already proven using the examples above which for reasons of English comprehension eludes you.

My point is proven and objective readers will understand the points I am making. I shall say no more on this subject.

aletheia:

^
The bolded part you refer to is this: "Now if hypothetically, turnout in Lagos rises to 50%, and that of Kano and Kaduna drops to 40%". I am thus given to understand that English "follow join your problem". What do you understand by the word "hypothetical"? Your whole attempt at prognostication is hypothetical. Every model is hypothetical. But you are exhibiting a typical Nigerian reaction...unable to understand or take on board constructive criticism. Is there anything in my suggestions that makes your model worse? A good working model must approximate as closely as possible reality and the reality is that voter turnout will vary from state to state. The past elections suggest so. And there is no reason to think it will be different in 2015. Your model is skewed and severely flawed for failing to account for such a critical variable...and it wouldn't take much effort to rectify this flaw.


Did you factor in the reality of differential voter turnout? It is erroneous to think that the voter turnout will be the same across board. A simple logical outcome seems to escape you. Not all states have the same numbers of voters. High voter turnout in Ekiti and Bayelsa disproportionately increases their overall votes contribution in comparison to low turnout in Kano and Lagos states. In effect, each state's contribution to the votes total is a weighted average determined by both voter turnout and number of registered votes. This I have already proven using the examples above which for reasons of English comprehension eludes you.

My point is proven and objective readers will understand the points I am making. I shall say no more on this subject.

If "English follow join my problem" then you must be lacking in critical reasoning and analysis department.

Where is the objective criticism you shout about? If there was any sincere intent of yours to do that, you would not start out by accusing me of bias ignoring the fact that I awarded GEJ far more % win than Buhari. And I have sounded it clear enough that I had two options of either to use the voters turnout of 2011 or use a uniform %. I chose the later but according to your logic it is biased to do that! But you don't see any bias in awarding between 90% and 95% to GEJ in those SS/SE states while awarding conservative % of between 70 and 80% to Buhari in his NW/NE states! Could you kindly do yours with the last voters turnout for us to examine?

I thought you had some real stuff upstairs but you have proved me wrong! If not, you still have to explain the logic behind your hypothesis to assume a higher turnout in Lagos (last time was 32% but you suggest 40%) predicted for PDP and assume a lower turnout of 40% in APC stronghold of Kaduna and Kano whereas the turnout in 2011 in those states were 66% and 53%. Or is the insurgency ravaging those states as well? You keep viewing things from your jaundiced perception and that is your greatest problem.

When we say TANoids have fish brains they think we exaggerate but we know that the best of them will still allow unnecessary bigotry to becloud their sense of judgment.

Since this discussion was started with you, you've committed various kinds of fallacies such as fallacy of undistributed middle and fallacy of irrelevant conclusion.

P.S: I also note that you cleverly avoided addressing some areas of my post since you couldn't come up with anything near reasonable. One of them is your naïve claim that our election is similar to that of USA, another one is your illogical suggestion to assume voters will vote exact way they did in 2011.

I give up on you.

2019 election will not be too different from this 2015 prediction which was correct by about 95% accuracy.

Irrespective of what his enemies think, PMB has consolidated his base and has won over some SS/SE electorate.

By the time the election has come and gone, the FFKs, Aisha Yesufus, OBJs et al will be admitted into an ICU.