Nigeria’s current military strategy for defeating Boko Horam is unlikely to succeed, analysts have warned, with the international community largely powerless to defeat the increasingly rampant Islamist group.

Corruption inside the Nigerian army, unpaid wages, and mutinies among troops have all facilitated Boko Haram’s rise, they said. On Sunday the sect, which has killed thousands in its bid to carve out an Islamic state in northern Nigeria, kidnapped about 80 people in neighbouring Cameroon. The victims of this latest cross-border attack included many children. The Cameroon army subsequently managed to free 20 of the hostages.


Dr Marc-Antoine Pérouse de Montclos, an associate fellow at Chatham House’s Africa programme, said Nigeria’s president, Goodluck Jonathan, had been manifestly unable to halt Boko Haram’s advance. The opposition leader, Gen Muhammadu Buhari, who is seeking to unseat Jonathan in the election on 14 February, may be better able to overhaul the country’s dysfunctional military, he suggested.

“The best hope [of defeating Boko Haram] would be the elections. For me the problem is in Nigeria. The answer is in Nigeria.” He added: “I’m confident that so long as President Jonathan is in charge there isn’t much that can be done. He isn’t in control of the military leadership. And the leadership doesn’t control the soldiers on the ground.”

Others, however, were sceptical that the elections would bring about change, predicting instead that they would further polarise divisions between a largely Muslim north and Christian south. Buhari, a Muslim, draws most of his support from Nigeria’s northern provinces, where Boko Haram is active. The group rejects the idea of a secular state. It has promised to disrupt the polls.

“Nigerian politics is a violent and dangerous game. Gangs of thugs are hired to intimidate rivals,” Martin Roberts, senior Africa analyst at IHS Global Insight, said. Roberts predicted that neither side would concede defeat, with suspicion in the north that Jonathan was deliberately allowing Boko Haram to flourish in an attempt to disenfranchise Buhari’s supporters.

Montclos, meanwhile, said there was relatively little the international community could do, following several well-meaning but doomed attempts to boost the Nigerian military.

The US offered surveillance and intelligence help after Boko Haram kidnapped 279 schoolgirls last April during a raid in Chibok, deep in north-eastern Nigeria, sparking global outrage. But an American plan to equip a new Nigerian battalion ended last month in an acrimonious squabble between Washington and Abuja.

Nigerian commanders insisted that the US supply them with attack helicopters and fighter jets to wipe out Boko Haram, something that the White House was unwilling to do, given the army’s poor human rights record. The Nigerian government then abruptly terminated the final phase of the programme. Successive central governments have also deliberately hollowed out the army because of a pervasive fear it could stage a coup.

Tensions between Nigeria and its neighbours, meanwhile, made the prospect of a regional peacekeeping operation fraught.

At a summit last May the French president, François Hollande, announced a new regional force, comprising troops from Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and the Republic of Niger. Each country was meant to supply 700 troops.

But by November the force had failed to materialise. Ghana’s president, John Mahama, who currently heads the west African Ecowas bloc, last week said that an army to fight Boko Haram could be created under African Union auspices. “It’s pie in the sky. It isn’t going to happen,” Roberts predicted.

With Boko Haram staging a series of audacious cross-border raids, Nigeria’s neighbours were now busy defending their own territory. On Monday a convoy of troops from Chad arrived in Maroua, the main town in Cameroon’s far north.

The Chadian army – which helped French forces drive out al-Qaida-linked jihadis from northern Mali in 2013 – has deployed around 2,000 soldiers. Cameroon has also sent thousands of additional troops to its border with Nigeria.

According to Montclos, Chad’s chief goal is to protect its economic interests. Much of Chad’s oil is exported via northern Cameroon. “This is the main reason they intervened,” he said.

The obstacles preventing a regional task force appear insurmountable, observers say. Cameroon and Nigeria have difficult relations.

Niger – a stable, smaller state, with a relatively disciplined army – has found it impossible to coordinate actions against Boko Haram with its Nigerian counterpart.

“Military officers from the Republic of Niger complain that when they call the Nigerian army nobody picks up. What kind of regional cooperation are we talking about?” Montclos asked.

His recent Chatham House report argues that Boko Haram, which has taken control of Borno state in Nigeria’s north-east, is adept at exploiting the state’s chronic institutional weaknesses.

It knows the local terrain well, can navigate around a demoralised and deficient security presence, and is able to attack villages with total impunity. Government troops on the ground suffer from low morale. Local vigilante forces have been unable to stave off violent Boko Haram operations.

On 3 January Boko Haram launched a bloody assault on the towns of Baga and Doron, killing hundreds and razing the area to the ground. Roberts said the army had withdrawn ahead of the raid, after being told the Nigerian air force was about to bomb the rebels. But the plane never arrived. Typically, the army runs away when Boko Haram advances, he said.

Since 2009 Nigeria’s security forces have waged a brutal anti-insurgency campaign, characterised by massacres, extra-judicial killings and arrests without trial.

This onslaught has alienated many civilians and driven communities into the arms of Boko Haram. This repression has driven recruitment, with Boko Haram expanding from an estimated 4,000 members in 2009 to 6,000-8,000 in 2014.

A new report on Tuesday said that the rapidly escalating insurgency had forced a million people to flee their homes. The International Organisation for Migration said there was “growing evidence” of turmoil spreading across Nigeria’s frontiers into neighbouring Cameroon, Niger and Chad, in addition to those internally displaced by the fighting.


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/22/nigeria-prospects-defeating-boko-haram-look-bleak

Jonah and corruption na twins... His worst enemy is stealing

GEJ is not in control of the military and he knows it. From what I heard, the service chiefs even make fun of him behind his back. They ain't using their budgets for the intended purpose and GEJ doesn't have the balls to probe them.

The way the west now paints the government in bad light and want to change the government of the day, I think it's not right. Let the people change the government if they want. Let the West mind their business and stop spreading hate. The GEJ guy even asked for their help and they won't provide it

For the APC and others celebrating that the west support their cause, The West is not your friend, they're your competitors and they'll crush Nigeria if it ever want to grow faster

UK,US mind your business what you both can't do, the regional coalition is doing it.

US/UK should face their internal issues and stop sponsoring penchant articles against Nigerian Govt. We already know thy evil gimmicks against Nigeria.

This is clear to Stevie wonder and audible to emka 'the deaf' in my area.

let's wait and see

Demburrows:
US/UK should face their internal issues and stop sponsoring inflamatory articles against Nigerian Govt. We already know thy evil gimmicks against Nigeria.

audiigee:
UK,US mind your business what you both can't do, the regional coalition is doing it.

when UK and US supported the killings in palestine by Israel, you toads didn't tell them to mind their business, now you want them to mind their business simply because they identify the failure of your useless paymaster.

Naija soldiers are coward

chad soldier are brave


Jona is a coward

buhari is brave

Nigerianhavedecided

Caseless:
This is clear to Stevie wonder and audible to emka 'the deaf' in my area.

lol

GEJ can. But he lack ideas. Unless he create a committee.

All these analysts just doing their job...Nigerians should hold their leaders accountable to provide security.

Stealing of public funds is what is making Nigerian military weak. The immunity clause is a fraud and criminal on its own.

Our electoral laws should be enforced and politicians endangering the lives of Nigerians because of their selfish motives must be dealt with severely harshly. Our judiciary is just a rubber stamp,Shame on the chief justice,EFCC chairman and the other chief prosecutors acting like puppets.

I CONCUR

Enemies of Nigeria should wait and see.

It will shock them to the bone .

One thing I like about the west, regardless of the patronage they gain from you, they are not afraid or shy to tell you the truth. They know how to separate business interest and their conscience.

On the other hand, I wonder why they are writing these damn editorials on Jonathan. I suspect Obasanjo oh. Anyway, they are always on point.

deeboiii:
GEJ can. But he lack ideas. Unless he create a committee.

how can he..? if he could he would have...

Afroconnect:
All these analysts just doing their job...Nigerians should hold their leaders accountable to provide security.

Stealing of public funds is what is making Nigerian military weak. The immunity clause is a fraud and criminal on its own.

Our electoral laws should be enforced and politicians endangering the lives of Nigerians because of their selfish motives must be dealt with severely harshly. Our judiciary is just a rubber stamp,Shame on the chief justice,EFCC chairman and the other chief prosecutors acting like puppets.

i concur...our intitutions havent helped ' all...with the level of impunity under Jonathan, you cant help but wonder why the NA hasnt impeached him.

mrborntodoit:
Enemies of Nigeria should wait and see.

It will shock them to the bone .

shock us that wat?

Boss13:
One thing I like about the west, regardless of the patronage they gain from you, they are not afraid or shy to tell you the truth. They know how to separate business interest and their conscience.

On the other hand, I wonder why they are writing these damn editorials on Jonathan. I suspect Obasanjo oh. Anyway, they are always on point.

its in their interest that nigeria prospers...they will agin too economically..

For those aligning with the west on their campaign of callousness against Nigeria. ... hold your peace.

There is no friend in international politics but rather interests. I still wonder why we listen to them.

What noble initiative has the West/ US instituted in Africa in the last four decades? ....

Have you not wondered why all african progresses was initiated and accomplished by africans alone?

After eliminating Gadaffi, what has Libya become and how is the west helping?

All looted funds in Nigeria since independence end up in the west yet they stay silent on the loot route?

Why did Wikileaks define bokoharam as a CIA covert operation?

Why did the West refuse to sell us arms? and how is that reason peculiar to this govt? and why at this time when we are at war with terrorists?

Why did the US stop Isreal from providing us support?

Why did US stop our purchase of arms from SA through proxy?

Why did US urge Saudi to deny us air clearance to air the lift arms we purchased from Pakistan?

What exactly is the end game for west in Nigeria? Do they love us that much that they interfer in almost everything about us?

Now take it or leave it, Nigeria is an emerging economy and power. We have commenced alignments with the Chinese and Russians and we are the biggest fish in africa at the moment.

The US cannot fold its hands and watch us align with russia... they will fight dirty

Any crises in Nigeria now will impact crude production and will drive up the cost of crude in the global market. The whole world stands to gain from a crises in Nigeria at the moment

The only reason France seems tp be supportive of the fight against Bokoharam is because Nigerians will overrun their key african allies such as Cameroon, Niger and Chad in a case of Nigerian crises.

This is not about about GEJ or true interests. Nigerians be wise.

Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan etc are key examples of nations that bought into the evil propaganda of the west. Its a black hole on the wild wild west.

sucess001:


shock us that wat?

Question,sitdon wait your answer

mrborntodoit:


Question,sitdon wait your answer

talk now o...as na una knw wetin pdp dey plan

sucess001:


talk now o...as na una knw wetin pdp dey plan

There is no excuse for ignorance,if you don't know that Gej is going to get rid of bh b4 election and that it will shock the world the same way Ebola extinction shocked the world then you must have been drowning in APC propaganda.

Ogbeni wake up, stop sleeping on bicycle !

mrborntodoit:


There is no excuse for ignorance,if you don't know that Gej is going to get rid of bh b4 election and that it will shock the world the same way Ebola extinction shocked the world then you must have been drowning in APC propaganda.

Ogbeni wake up, stop sleeping on bicycle !

hehehehehehehehehehehe



heheheheheheheheheh



gej don turn to rambo abi?


watch and see na...

hope UK Guardian has a voters card

Jonathan is clueless. That's a statement of fact.

Everyone agrees

Ikengawo:
hope UK Guardian has a voters card

they dont...but they knw how clueless ur oga is...

raumdeuter:
Jonathan is clueless. That's a statement of fact.

Everyone agrees

Yes. otuoke's cluelessness is internationally aclaimed...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-7T6RV5dbg

[size=15pt]Nigeria's 'disgrace' That Neighbors Must Take on Boko Haram[/size]

Opposition presidential candidate Muhammdu Buhari said it is a "disgrace" for Nigeria that its neighbors have been more successful in battle against its Boko Haram insurgency than its own army. He made the statements a week before the election, saying quote: "It’s a big disgrace for Nigeria. It is now Cameroon and Chad fighting the insurgency more than Nigeria. We will build the capacity and Nigeria should be able to secure its territorial integrity." Troops from neighboring Chad, Niger and Cameroon, all much smaller and poorer than Nigeria, have been battling the Islamist militants who have seized territory in northeastern Nigeria in a five-year insurgency.

I hope this 'analysts' have defeated ISIS who have beheaded many western journalists and aid workers with all the coalition of US, EU and Arab countries?