barcanista:
Listen very well. I specifically mentioned the action of political leaders. Accord isn't incumbent in oyo nor SDP in Ogun. But their leaders are resolved to work with Jonathan. This is the same in Labor in Oyo and other SW states. I am a keen observer of SW politics, I haven't seen powerful blocs endorse Buhari. You guys will be shocked in Oyo, Ogun, Lagos, Ondo and Ekiti States. APC isn't loved by any formidable party in Ogun. This is a fact

egift:
Here is my take:
- Buhari will have the majority votes from the SW.
- Both the APC and PDP will have at least the required 25% from each state in the SW, unlike what happened in 2011.
- In Governorship, APC will retain Lagos and Ogun. Ekiti and Osun is not in contention. Oyo and Ondo too close to call.

In summary, Buhari is the next President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

torkaka:
. . . . . . . . .meanwhile, somewhere in Yoruba land;


16 March 2015

[size=15pt]Nigeria: We Never Endorsed Jonathan - -Yoruba Elders Council[/size]

http://allafrica.com/stories/201503160461.html

anonimi:


Shey na you give am the cup of garri & sugar?

We know the national leader who threw his Association of Conmen in Nigeria, ACN candidate under the bus after collecting stomach infrastructure from Aso Rock in 2011 to deliver yoruba + Edo votes to Jonathan.

The yeye man nor even get shame so tey im dey boast sey na im make our president win for 2011 yet some EMPTY headed fellows want us to dey follow such an utterly CORRUPT person

Olorun maje!
God forbid!!

Tufiakwa!!!

seankay:
If you don't live in the SW, don't open ur silly mouth to tell me GEJ will win maybe you mean the SW in Otuoke. GEJ does not deserve to win, he has failed NGR

sunayo:


The problem with APC supporters is that you guys hate truth because your party thrives on lies and propaganda. Did you just. Say OPC and Afenifere have no influence in SW? Wait till 28th of March.

Again you said you know 50 people who have switched because of OPC vandalism, what a big lie from you. Well, I also know many people who will never vote anything APC in SW because of their voilent and "agberoism" especially in Lagos.

Mind you, I'm Yoruba(Balogun) is my surname. I, my wife, Igbo neighbours, many relaatives, many friends, most of my friends are voting GEJ. I reside in Satelite lagos. I agree more with the OP. GEJ will win SW come 28th of March. Enjoy your propaganda, lies and self deciet while it last.

barcanista:
You guys keep coming with fables. You have no idea that even in his Ogun state, Mr Osinbajo is a political nonentity talkless of Yoruba nation in its entirety. You talked about the Yorubas being marginalised but you forget that it was the APC that denied Mukinat the Speakership. Yoruba nation is wise. While the Yoruba clamoured for National Conference, the APc kicked against it. In the States, politicians elected on APC platform have left. Yoruba nation knows the trick of APC... No wonder OPC and ors endorsed PDP. Again, I laugh

Ngwakwe:


I just quoted one of the reasons they enumerated for their stance which is different from your opinions hence my call for respect for differences in political persuasions and interest.

Most of these Southwesterners supporting Jonathan have their valid reasons and are not all crooks, saboteurs, and whatever you think.

7lives:
Boya le mo, meaning if only you guys knows that jona will not even get 10% of SW votes.
E don tey Wey yansh dey back, te ba so obe soke ni igba igba, ibi pelebe Lo ma fi le ile.
Iye le o ma wo, e o to eye e ri. The more you guys look, the less you see.

barcanista:
Afenifere And OPC Favor Jonathan
The endorsement of Jonathan's candidacy by the influential pan Yoruba group Afenifere and O'dua Peoples' Congress will in no small way influence the voting pattern of their members-most of whom are grassroot people. Otunba Gani Adams, National Coordinator, OPC said, “we took time to study the situation of things and we took time to look at the capacity of the candidates involved. I won’t deceive you, from the National Coordinating Council, we have decided to inform our followers that they should vote for President Jonathan.”

The National leader of OPC Chief Fedrick Fasheun had earlier threw his support behind the re-election bid of President Jonathan.

However, another influential group, The Yoruba Council of Elders refused to publicly endorse any of the candidates.

A Look at APC:
No doubt, APC controls 4 out of the Six government houses in the SW as at today, but the party has seen a huge dip in its political fortune in the region. One of the factor that helped the party to win Oyo and Ogun States in 2011 was the heavy factionalisaton within the PDP. Today, the APC in Ogun has had a major split with the SDP coming out a very strong beneficiary taking all Senators. The PDP in Ogun State is united. The APC also lost ALL their Senators in Oyo state, they can't boast of any today- though they gained a Senator in Ondo. In Lagos State, the influential Justice Group left the APC for the PDP. In Ekiti State, the APC was rejected in 2014. In Osun where it hold sway, the anger of civil servants over delay in payment of five(5) months salary may reflect at the Presidential poll. In Ondo State, the APC is not a force as it has little or no structure on ground.

Conclusion
With the Leading parties in the SW and two highly influential groups queuing behind the President's re-election, it is safe to say that the Yoruba nation favors President Jonathan, while the APC candidate Gen Buhari plays second fiddle. Though it won't be fair to write off APC from the political calculation of the SW, yet it will amount to misinformation to say the APC is in control of the region.


God Bless The Yoruba Nation
God Bless Nigeria
God Bless President Jonathan
President 2010-2019

Charlotte15:
With the level of sophistication of the Yoruba people it would be hard for anyone to tell them who to vote. The average market person is very aware of the affairs in the country and make sound rationales therefrom. I have interviewed several people in the market, mosques, church, everywhere I can seek an audience and I can tell you everyone who has made a choice has done so on their conviction. If not how do you explain how the sw voted massively for jona and voted apc for other positions. It's not as easy as you make it but a well thought out analysis. It is Buhari all the way.

barcanista:
How true is the phrase "Yoruba won't vote Jonathan"?

The political terrain of the South West is controlled/shared among the Social Democratic Party, Accord Party, All Progressive Congress, People's Democratic Party and the usual dark horse Labour Party. The SDP, PDP, Accord and LP are queuing behind the re-election of President Jonathan. Only the APC is with Muhammadu Buhari. While the SDP and Accord may sound like a lightweight to some readers, indices on ground shows otherwise. A Look at the present political fortunes of pro-Jonathan parties in the SW..

Social Democratic Party
The SDP led by Olu Falae and Osoba is more prominent in Ogun State. All 3 Senators from the state are members of SDP. The party also boasts of 5 out of 9 House of Reps delegation from Ogun state(2 each for PDP and APC), the Deputy Governor, former cabinet members of Amosun, and some state legislators. In other words, neither the APC nor the PDP can boast of any incumbent Senator from Ogun State. SDP is also very prominent in Oyo State with Mr Makinde, a popular millionaire leading its rank. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll.

Accord Party
Accord Party is more formidable in Oyo State, especially Ibadan. Of the three Senators from Oyo, two(2) are of Accord Party, the other is a PDP man. The party led by the popular charismatic former Governor Ladoja is the leading party for the Oyo State Guber election. As long as Oyo is concerned, Accord Party is a force to be reckoned with. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll

Labour Party
Labour Party is the usual dark horse in Yoruba politics since 2007. It is prominent in Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo and Ogun States. In Oyo State, it is led by exGovernor Alao Akala who is the Governorship candidate. Akala's stronghold is his Ogbomoso town. The party is also relatively popular in Oyo town and Ibadan of the state. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll

People's Democratic Party
Peoples' Democratic Party arose from its 2011 misfortune/near extinction to become a force again in 2015. No thanks to the division of its party in Oyo, Ekiti, Lagos and Ogun States. Fortunately for the party, they are now united in Lagos(for the first time since 2006), Ogun State (after 5 years of division), Ekiti and Ondo States(after almost one year of division). In other words, the party is participating in 2015 as a united team- except in Oyo state. In Ogun State, the PDP boasts of two Reps members and about 10 State legislators. In Oyo state, it boasts of one senate seat. In Ekiti, it recently won the Governorship election in all 16 LGA. In Ondo State, the defection of Governor Mimiko and two Senators from the State means a lot to the party. Though it almost caused rift among members of the State chapter of the party. In Lagos state, for the first time since 2005, the party is working together as a team. Jonathan is the PDP Candidate.

ilugunboy:


Would you relinquish your moderatorship if GEJ loses the majority votes in SW?

The honest truth as a SWesterner conversant with the politics of Ogun and Lagos is that GEJ will struggle to garner the required 25 % in five of the SW votes.

Ovamboland:
But it is okay to follow the bribe giver, very balanced analysis.

You forget the alleged bribe taker is not contesting but the alleged bribe giver used your money in 2011 now you want to empower him to do as he wishes with your life for the next 4 years

Davvymavvy:
What a parochial view and flawed analysis. Because I reside in Ibadan n I av sympathy for Ladoja, it then translates to supporting the clueless Jonathan? The op must be high on cheap weed to think Jonathan would win SW. Cure your naivety and ignorance by taking random sampling of people's opinion across Yorubaland, I bet, u will bury your head in shame for coming up with this mouth watery analysis.

barcanista:
[b]You can not use your own personal preference to decide for all Ladoja supporters. [/b]The importance of endorsement is not to gain 100% votes of subjects but to secure overhelming majority. It's funny how you APC goons use ur own judgement without relying on fact.

berem:
na your papa pay me to support APC. Kindly contribute to the topic you half-wit!

OrlandoOwoh:

Those "supporting" him are deceiving him.

Bayswater:


GEJ's campaign in the southwest has not even started.

What you are seeing is just the ground work, the 'real mobilisation' starts on the 21st.

Expect various artisans to start taking positions in that week.

The mamalojas in their thousands now have their GEJ Ankara ready. What could be more grassroots than that?

APC go know how far oops

I'm sure APC did not see that coming.

Ngwakwe:


My moderatorship is a free civil function to humanity hence I have no gain or loss if disengaged.

I presuppose you meant Zamfara State and not Lagos State and moreover, I am confident that Jonathan has done his homework in Southwest and paid his dues hence my confidence that he will win in the region and by extension the presidential election.

barcanista:
How true is the phrase "Yoruba won't vote Jonathan"?

The political terrain of the South West is controlled/shared among the Social Democratic Party, Accord Party, All Progressive Congress, People's Democratic Party and the usual dark horse Labour Party. The SDP, PDP, Accord and LP are queuing behind the re-election of President Jonathan. Only the APC is with Muhammadu Buhari. While the SDP and Accord may sound like a lightweight to some readers, indices on ground shows otherwise. A Look at the present political fortunes of pro-Jonathan parties in the SW..

Social Democratic Party
The SDP led by Olu Falae and Osoba is more prominent in Ogun State. All 3 Senators from the state are members of SDP. The party also boasts of 5 out of 9 House of Reps delegation from Ogun state(2 each for PDP and APC), the Deputy Governor, former cabinet members of Amosun, and some state legislators. In other words, neither the APC nor the PDP can boast of any incumbent Senator from Ogun State. SDP is also very prominent in Oyo State with Mr Makinde, a popular millionaire leading its rank. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll.

Accord Party
Accord Party is more formidable in Oyo State, especially Ibadan. Of the three Senators from Oyo, two(2) are of Accord Party, the other is a PDP man. The party led by the popular charismatic former Governor Ladoja is the leading party for the Oyo State Guber election. As long as Oyo is concerned, Accord Party is a force to be reckoned with. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll

Labour Party
Labour Party is the usual dark horse in Yoruba politics since 2007. It is prominent in Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo and Ogun States. In Oyo State, it is led by exGovernor Alao Akala who is the Governorship candidate. Akala's stronghold is his Ogbomoso town. The party is also relatively popular in Oyo town and Ibadan of the state. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll

People's Democratic Party
Peoples' Democratic Party arose from its 2011 misfortune/near extinction to become a force again in 2015. No thanks to the division of its party in Oyo, Ekiti, Lagos and Ogun States. Fortunately for the party, they are now united in Lagos(for the first time since 2006), Ogun State (after 5 years of division), Ekiti and Ondo States(after almost one year of division). In other words, the party is participating in 2015 as a united team- except in Oyo state. In Ogun State, the PDP boasts of two Reps members and about 10 State legislators. In Oyo state, it boasts of one senate seat. In Ekiti, it recently won the Governorship election in all 16 LGA. In Ondo State, the defection of Governor Mimiko and two Senators from the State means a lot to the party. Though it almost caused rift among members of the State chapter of the party. In Lagos state, for the first time since 2005, the party is working together as a team. Jonathan is the PDP Candidate.

mrmetoo1:

I'm Yoruba and none of my family members are voting GEJ.

Ngwakwe:


My moderatorship is a free civil function to humanity hence I have no gain or loss if disengaged.

I presuppose you meant Zamfara State and not Lagos State and moreover, I am confident that Jonathan has done his homework in Southwest and paid his dues hence my confidence that he will win in the region and by extension the presidential election.

barcanista:
It is called consultation and lobbying. These are very important in politics. Didn't Buhari and Osinbajo visit Obas? Obis and Emirs? You people are just funny

Belmot:
You are really a strong woman.... May the almighty give more strength to fight against the numerous and shameless bullies on nairaland. Wa s'are won koni ba e.

masseratti:
Why do you guys keep up coming up with threads like this?you will hardly see a thread by APC supporter claiming GMB will win in the southeast, if you guys are so sure GEJ will win southwest don't bother telling us.

Gabbysky:
@Barcanista, Nice analysis guy, I respect your posts a lot.
In as much as I share in this, I still believe the GEJ SW foot soldiers need to do more to win more potential apc votes over, especially the very critical undecided voters in the Block.
The idea here is to prevent the apc from getting up to 25% votes from all the SW states.
This is why I'm inclined to believe the report that people's vote would be purchased with as much as N20,000 per PVC at the polling units, hence the mad rush of people with their PVCs to register in these PDP grassroot campaign groups. I've met with numerous apc staunch supporters that would be selling theirs on that day.

Now when you add the alleged security forces support, and the possibility of the PDP using their joker, I see no way the apc will get the required 25% in each state of the region for the P.election.
As for the G.elections, that's a settled matter.

LAGOS would be taken by PDP.

GEJ TILL 2019

Ngwakwe:


What percentage vote did Aregbesola win the election over his PDP counterpart?

The choice is between Buhari and Jonathan for which we all know Jonathan is by far a better candidate.

SeverusSnape:
[s]
Don't mind Rilwayne001, he's living in denial. The same thing Buhari and osibanjo did; and they expect GEJ not to do the same. Hypocrites!!! [/s]

Gabbysky:
@Barcanista, Nice analysis guy, I respect your posts a lot.
In as much as I share in this, I still believe the GEJ SW foot soldiers need to do more to win more potential apc votes over, especially the very critical undecided voters in the Block.
The idea here is to prevent the apc from getting up to 25% votes from all the SW states.
This is why I'm inclined to believe the report that people's vote would be purchased with as much as N20,000 per PVC at the polling units, hence the mad rush of people with their PVCs to register in these PDP grassroot campaign groups. I've met with numerous apc staunch supporters that would be selling theirs on that day.

Now when you add the alleged security forces support, and the possibility of the PDP using their joker, I see no way the apc will get the required 25% in each state of the region for the P.election.
As for the G.elections, that's a settled matter.

LAGOS would be taken by PDP.

GEJ TILL 2019