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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) (33867 Views)
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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by mandarin: 5:35pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
barcanista: Barcanista good evening. You have your points as every group matters in politics but the question is, to what extent. Let's look at 3scenario: 1. The siting governor winning his state for his party that means Jonathan wins in Ondo and Ekiti states and Buhari wins in Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, and Osun states.This depend on if the people believe in the sitting governor and if he actually has touched people's lives and they feel they can trust him with their votes. 2. When voters decide to vote for candidates, then Yoruba are caught betwix a sitting president that had not included Yoruba in the core of his government, had abused them and their leaders and a candidate known for integrity and honesty but also a military dictator. Yoruba don't admire Hausa/Fulani politically. 3. When electorates chose to vote based on economic realities, contributions to the progress of the Yoruba country and economic prosperity. The Yoruba are faced by a government accused of wasting billions of dollars and the current economic realities are not in favor of the region or its people. Their children constituted the bulk of personnel that lost their income source in blue chip companies to a Buhari whose only image is just a get away from Jonathan. Which of these three is likely to influence voters? The three. Yoruba voters are at this time the most difficult to predict for the following reasons : 1. The influence of Godfatherism is waning, events of the last two years are testimonies. While your Godfather can help you scale through primary election, they cannot dictate who will win in the general election. 2. The political blocs as elders' council, chiefs, kings and cultural groups aren't as strong as before. Afenifere do not presently have any governor installed by them nor any King, the people have simply moved beyond that level. 3. The economic impacts of government policies on the source of livelihood of the people and ripple effects in the country sides. Based on our academic research on the public opinion on the Presidential and Gubernatorial election in Lagos state recently, Buhari won by a landslide winning over 80%. Now that may have changed between then and now but, in Lagos state, the most enlightened state in Nigeria, economic reasons is the most influential reason for voter's decision and its two edged sword; it will work for Buhari in the Presdential election as people feel the economic progress of the country is abysmal. It is also the reason for the about 38% of population that said they would vote for PDP in Lagos due to economic policies of the APC. Because the research is pure academic and its ownership isn't me, I wont tell you more. Barcanista, please come back and challenge me after the election if its free and fair in the southwest, APC will win the presidential election in Lagos(above 56%),Ogun, Osun and Oyo. Ekiti and Ondo are subject to various influences and especially Ekiti is unsure for anyone because the mind of those people is hard to decipher. Now, the turnout for the election itself wont be as large as expected especially if threats of violence etc persist. Lets put it at 70% for those with Pvc already, now that's a minus for both Jonathan and Buhari. It is expected that those that will vote in Lagos may not exceed 2.5million while Osun, Ogun and Oyo may have higher turn outs per eligible voters. For those you said will work for Jonathan or the PDP like SDP and LP, there is a good authority that it will work against such parties as the election to the Federal Assembly is on the same day, its like throwing all they have into the wind, I know of SDP that has secretly jettison that because it wont favor its candidates especially among rural voters. So what do you think Barcanista, before the coming of GEJ to romance OPC how much mobilization did OPC do among their rather factionalized groups? Am not a politician but an analyst and i don't work for any group, but in a free and fair election coming 28th, Buhari carries the day in the Southwest by at least 60%. Turn out may be low ,in Ekiti and Ondo states may be like 67% of eligible voters. What will determine who will win the election id the bulk of voters in the North who have all the time in this world to go out there and queue for hours in order to see their icon win the election. Please give Buhari over 27miilion there. The question is if Southeast and Southsouth can match that strength. 11 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Ahmeduana(m): 5:35pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
egift:EHN? SORRY, PELE! IN YOUR SCREWED ANALYSIS YOU NEVER MADE MENTION OF THE FACT THAT BUHARI MAY NOT GET ONE SINGLE VOTES IN SOUTH-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, THAT JONATHAN WILL SPLIT THE VOTES IN MIDDLE BELT AND SOUTHWEST WITH BUHARI WHILE JONATHAN WILL GET THE REQUIRED 25% FROM NORTH WEST AND NORTHEAST. 3 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by MichaelSokoto(m): 5:36pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
torkaka: ![]() |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Charlotte15: 5:37pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
With the level of sophistication of the Yoruba people it would be hard for anyone to tell them who to vote. The average market person is very aware of the affairs in the country and make sound rationales therefrom. I have interviewed several people in the market, mosques, church, everywhere I can seek an audience and I can tell you everyone who has made a choice has done so on their conviction. If not how do you explain how the sw voted massively for jona and voted apc for other positions. It's not as easy as you make it but a well thought out analysis. It is Buhari all the way. 4 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Ovamboland(m): 5:37pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
anonimi: But it is okay to follow the bribe giver, very balanced analysis. You forget the alleged bribe taker is not contesting but the alleged bribe giver used your money in 2011 now you want to empower him to do as he wishes with your life for the next 4 years 2 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by aresa: 5:39pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
seankay: The OP's write up is nothing but ignorance and self denial. In politics, you focus on your chronic area of weakness and meager support so he's sleeping in the SW simply because the SW is not interested in his candidacy and their own internal public opinion polls showed the same doom and gloom. It means the SW is not in his corner... This is politics 101 Why is he not camping out in the SS and SE? Because he has no support issues there. 4 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by francizy(m): 5:40pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
sunayo: Brother mi, where in Satellite Town do you stay? ![]() |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by stronger: 5:41pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
barcanista: Hahaha. . barcanista. . nice guy! Compared to a VAST MAJORITY OF PRO-GEJ supporters, you tend to talk issues, make good attempts at logic and don't insult. Kudos. But let me highlight a few things; (1) You say PROF Osibanjo doesn't have a structure even in his state. Nice one. Do you think anyone knew GEJ in Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta and the S/S states that voted for him in 2011. Why did they vote for him? BECAUSE NA OUR SON!! We will be deluding ourselves if you think that won't play a part. Notice I didn't say APC will sweep because of this. I just said that it will play a part! (2) You talk about marginalisation of the yorubas and RESTRICT it to the SPEAKERSHIP POSITION! LOL!! Guy do you have any yoruba friends? Do you do any grassroot politics in yoruba land at all? Try to get informed. The speaker pained the Yorubas but it's beyond that! It's also about projects, it's about representation in significant appointments. Who is the highest ranking yoruba person? Bros do some more interaction and come back let's talk. (3) The national Conference! LOOOOOLLL. . Tinubu, Soyinka etc have always clamoured for a SOVEREIGN national conference!! SOVEREIGN!! As it is, the confab report can be shredded into 360 equal parts and noone will say anything. In any case, please just answer this - HOW CAN GEJ PROMISE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A CONFAB REPORT THAT IS YET TO GO THROUGH THE NA??!! Bros, the PIB has been stuck there for years!! Yoruba "leaders" that support GEJ based on the confab report are of 2 classes: (a) deluded about it's applicability (b) They know it cant fly but want to collect their dollars. I suspect most belong to the latter group. They are smart! Lastly, please you didn't respond to the OPC matter. With the reaction to the OPC madness in Lagos are you convinced that GEJ has just LOST THOUSANDS of votes??!! All said, one area I agree with you is that the SW won't be a walk in the park for GMB but HE WILL WIN IT!!! (Snap this, capture it, record it, just note this) 7 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by OrlandoOwoh(m): 5:42pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
Ngwakwe:Those "supporting" him are deceiving him. 3 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Ahmeduana(m): 5:42pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
7lives:IF YOU COMMENT IS ANYTHING TO GO BY, THEN THEIR MUST BE SOME EVIL conspiracy between apc and the game umpire, WITH THESE ANALYSIS IT SHOWS THAT APC CHANCES ARE FRAGMENTED AND A SCATTERED CHANCE, IS NOT A CHANCE. |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by agileson: 5:43pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
barcanista: Excellent write up SIR. Certified Propaganda Free. I bow for your eloquent logic. God bless you, the Great South West, all peoples and regions of Nigeria and our leaders. 4 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 5:44pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
Charlotte15:you're right! 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by richardomoko: 5:44pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
Yoruba's would of course vote massively for GEJ. Tinubu is not the annoited leader of the Yoruba race. barcanista: |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Ngwakwe: 5:45pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
ilugunboy: My moderatorship is a free civil function to humanity hence I have no gain or loss if disengaged. I presuppose you meant Zamfara State and not Lagos State and moreover, I am confident that Jonathan has done his homework in Southwest and paid his dues hence my confidence that he will win in the region and by extension the presidential election. 7 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by anonimi: 5:46pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
Ovamboland: Not contesting my foot! Why should I empower the bribe taker, ASSUMING indeed it was bribe given and not some other exchange? [img]http://2.bp..com/-KPLcpCOk7fU/VPDmvlucBNI/AAAAAAAEoEk/MLF9BU7UttQ/s1600/1.jpg[/img] www.nairaland.com/attachments/1952273_2014121800_33_45_jpegc1637ff77fffec9e16290ed871ff1844 |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Davvymavvy: 5:49pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
Davvymavvy: barcanista: Read and comprehend Mr Oga... |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Belmot(m): 5:52pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
berem:You are really a strong woman.... May the almighty give more strength to fight against the numerous and shameless bullies on nairaland. Wa s'are won koni ba e. ![]() 5 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Ngwakwe: 5:54pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
OrlandoOwoh: What percentage vote did Aregbesola win the election over his PDP counterpart? The choice is between Buhari and Jonathan for which we all know Jonathan is by far a better candidate. 5 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by SeverusSnape(m): 5:54pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
Bayswater:Exactly @ bolded, That's one the PdP has that Apc does not; Grassroots, They'll be shocked. 4 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 5:57pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
@Barcanista, Nice analysis guy, I respect your posts a lot. In as much as I share in this, I still believe the GEJ SW foot soldiers need to do more to win more potential apc votes over, especially the very critical undecided voters in the Block. The idea here is to prevent the apc from getting up to 25% votes from all the SW states. This is why I'm inclined to believe the report that people's vote would be purchased with as much as N20,000 per PVC at the polling units, hence the mad rush of people with their PVCs to register in these PDP grassroot campaign groups. I've met with numerous apc staunch supporters that would be selling theirs on that day. Now when you add the alleged security forces support, and the possibility of the PDP using their joker, I see no way the apc will get the required 25% in each state of the region for the P.election. As for the G.elections, that's a settled matter. LAGOS would be taken by PDP. GEJ TILL 2019 5 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by SeverusSnape(m): 5:57pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
Ngwakwe:Word!...words of authority, Let those who have ears/eyes hear/see. 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Tdhforreal(m): 6:00pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
barcanista:Intelligent write up. You are very much on point 2 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by jaybee3(m): 6:01pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
mrmetoo1: Sentiments shared by the so called important grassroots that are in the know that i was opportuned to interact with in the past few weeks My 76 year old mum whom I didn't even have to convince has her PVC ready for the General 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 6:03pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
Ngwakwe: Lolz....your legendary ignorance shines through. You are somewhere shuttling between Owerri and Aba and you confidently claimed that Jonathan will win the SW with a tone of finality ![]() ![]() Be ready for the shock of your life......the greatest error PDP made was agreeing to the Presidential and National Assembly elections to take place the same day. When the reasons for PDP woeful loss is been collated.....that will be on top.. 6 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by SeverusSnape(m): 6:06pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
barcanista:Don't mind Rilwayne001, he's living in denial. The same thing Buhari and osibanjo did; and they expect GEJ not to do the same. Hypocrites!!! |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 6:07pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
Belmot:nothing dey happen! I dey politics section kampe,no shaking. ![]() ![]() 3 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by SeverusSnape(m): 6:08pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
masseratti:That's because Buhari even in his dream can't think of winning SE. 3 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Ovamboland(m): 6:08pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
Gabbysky: Whatever floats your bubble, ignorance is bliss 2 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by ziccoit: 6:12pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
Ngwakwe: I'm not joking. I'm very serious here. This is never an exaggeration. Less than 5%, yes less than 5% of SWners I have spoken with agreed to vote GEJ. Mind you, I meet up to 400-500 people every week in my line of duty. These are grassroots people that actually do the voting. SW is a no going area for GEJ. 2 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Mrbigman1(m): 6:13pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
Great work, good masterpiece, u write better than 90 percent of our "so-called pundits" Good research, good comparison, good investigation. Ur post yesterday made it look like u re internationally recognised already, abi u wan collect Wole award from am? Lol |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Rilwayne001: 6:15pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
SeverusSnape: Who is living in denier between a SW and SS/SE, when the SS/SE is trying to tell me whats going on in my side? 2 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by ziccoit: 6:17pm On Mar 16, 2015 |
Gabbysky: Omisore bought a larger percentage of voters. Each collected N5000. They promised to vote him and later went forward to vote Aregbesola. In 2011, I saw PDP agents distributing money in my pooling unit in Osun. Guess what, ACN still carried the day in my unit and accross the state. 1 Like 1 Share |
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