Predicting the outcome of an election has never
been this difficult. The reason is not too complex
though: this is the first time since 1999 that the
opposition party has gathered enormous
momentum going into an election. What’s more:
there seems to be a blossoming coalition between
Muhammadu Buhari and the south. All you need
do is look at the crowds and supporters at his
rallies in the south, compared to the years gone
by. However, no one dare rules out an incumbent
president in a developing country, so President
Goodluck Jonathan should not be considered
down and out. But he has had a lot of negative
publicity in his first term which puts him at a
disadvantage, at least with many people. The
election is a referendum on his government, not
on Buhari’s regime of three decades ago. There
are good reasons for Buhari to be hopeful that he
would win. And there are good reasons for
Jonathan to believe that he too would win. We try
to highlight each candidate’s hopes.
1. Bigger Base
In 2003, 2007 and 2011, Buhari was essentially a
northern candidate with little support in the south.
But he was clearly the darling of the “core north”
and not the middle belt. Either as candidate of the
All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) or the Congress
for Progressive Change (CPC), Buhari never had
any impact in the south and most of the middle
belt. Today, as candidate of the bigger All
Progressives Congress (APC) which has swallowed
ANPP and CPC, in addition to the south-west party,
Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) Buhari has a
bigger and broader base. He never won 25% in any
southern state before; this time, expect him to hit
that threshold in all southern states, except
perhaps Bayelsa.
2. Bigger Purse
The formation of APC has not only given Buhari a
bigger national platform, his war chest is now
heavier. In the past, his finances were highly
limited. He could not afford all the necessary
logistics, such as buying enough campaign
vehicles and maintaining them. He could not afford
expensive media advertising. His supporters often
taxed themselves to make expenses on his behalf.
In 2015, the story has changed. Buhari is all over
the newspapers, radio, TV and the Internet. He has
a deep pocket courtesy of the support of governors
such as Rotimi Amaechi and Aliyu Wamakko as
well as wealthy Nigerians like Bola Tinubu and
former vice-president, Atiku Abubakar. Buhari, from
struggling to fuel his campaign vehicles long ago,
now uses chartered flights.
3. Bigger Youth Support
Buhari was never the darling of the educated youth
population until now. In 2011, Jonathan
monopolised the market with his hold on the social
media, where the youth are the most active. Buhari
never had a Facebook page or Twitter handle.
However, since he won the presidential ticket of
his party in December, the story has changed
completely. Youths who used to criticise Jonathan
regularly on the social media simply moved to
Buhari’s camp and, at some stage, drowned out
pro-Jonathan voices. They have also been creative
and proactive, criticising every move of Jonathan
swiftly and generating a lot of viral messages
against the president.
4. Better Image
Buhari used to be seen as a religious
fundamentalist who was bent on Islamising
Nigeria. He had also been credited with a couple of
statements that seemed to paint him in that light.
Long ago, he reportedly said Muslims should only
vote for Muslims a statement he denied. Last year,
he was quoted as blaming Jonathan for the war
against Boko Haram, reportedly saying a
northerner gave Niger Delta militants but a
southerner was instead killing northerners. All
these reports painted him as a northern and
Islamic champion. These impressions have since
vanished, starting possibly from the moment he
was attacked in Kaduna last year by suspected
Boko Haram militants.
5. Critical Issues
For once, the electioneering relegated sectional
issues substantially to the background. Gone are
the days of “it is our turn” or “Nigeria will be
ungovernable if we don’t have it”. Jonathan, as the
sitting president, has been confronted with issues
of insecurity and corruption which his opponents
have highlighted very well. Indeed, the message
resonates well with many Nigerians who, despite
opposing Buhari in the past, are now saying they
would rather have him than four more years of
Jonathan. Issues such as the kidnap of Chibok
schoolgirls, the alleged $20 billion missing oil
money, poor power supply and the menace of
Boko Haram are uppermost on their minds. In a
sense, the “change” campaign is more of an anti-
Jonathan sentiment.
1. Incumbency Factor
In African politics, or the politics of underdeveloped
countries for that matter, incumbents are hard to
unseat. Incumbents have been defeated in some
nearby countries such as Cote d’Ivoire and
Senegal but these deviations are not the rule. In
Nigeria’s history, incumbents have always
returned: Tafawa Balewa (1960 and 1964, as prime
minister), Shehu Shagari (1979 and 1983) and
Olusegun Obasanjo (1999 and 2003). Their returns
were always controversial. So either steal, beg or
borrow, Jonathan may use the advantage of
incumbency to return to power. The postponement
of the election, for instance, is seen as a
demonstration of incumbency power and it is
believed that it has allowed Jonathan to re-
strategise for victory.
2. The Nicodemus Factor
Although Buhari is dominating the airwaves, it
could well be that those who are working for
Jonathan are afraid of being “mobbed” and have
decided to support him Nicodemusly (that means
“secretly”, in case you are not familiar with the
Bible story). In some parts of the country, those
known to be supporting Jonathan have been
attacked in the past. People lost their lives and
property in 2011 for supporting Jonathan. There
are various reports, mostly unconfirmed, that the
northern elite are not well disposed to Buhari
because of fear of vengeance. Some traditional
rulers are also thought to be apprehensive about a
scarcity of goodies under an anti-corruption icon
like Buhari.
3. Southern/Middle Belt emotion
Although Buhari now has a larger and broader
base, there are those who will not vote for him
simply because they think the north has a “born to
rule” mentality. No matter their misgivings with a
Jonathan government, they will be happy not to
have another northerner as president “so soon”.
Some southerners still refer to the past when the
north ruled Nigeria from 1960 to 1999, minus the
four combined years of Obasanjo and Ernest
Shonekan. This sentiment is still strong in some
areas in the south, where some socio-cultural
groups and elders are still talking about the
“northern oligarchy”. The minorities in the north,
meanwhile, seem to identify with the south in this
aspect.
4. Stomach Infrastructure
There is a language that is often spoken among
Nigerians voters: stomach infrastructure. A bag of
rice, a bottle of vegetable oil, a bundle of clothing
or a few wads of naira could win their votes. It is a
common factor in places where they do not have
any serious interest in the candidates. When it
comes to stomach infrastructure, then, Jonathan
has a bigger storehouse than Buhari. Although
Buhari has a deeper pocket this time around, his
funders also have other battles they are waging.
For instance, Tinubu and Amaechi are battling to
install their governorship candidates, making the
presidential election a bit of a distraction. More so,
the postponement of the election appears to have
depleted opposition’s resources, while PDP’s
pocket seems bottomless.
5. South-west? Which south-west?
Buhari’s hope of unseating Jonathan seems to rest
so much on the belief that the APC is in control of
the south-west. Having scored 10 million votes
less than Jonathan in 2011, the Buhari camp
seemed to have finally accepted the fact that he
needs southern votes to become president.
Culled: TheCable

Today is all about Buhari.. Victory is already ours.

Op our ancestors are far more educated than you and your analysis.

Mr. President has no vacancy for his position till 219.

[size=14pt]I observed that those typing GEJ till 2019 have reduced

Even then, They are just typing , they don't believe it


Your vote your right ,

i DON WAKE , na to waka go polling booth this kind early momon


Thunder Fire them, Sai Baba ni Joor [/size]

Nothing has changed from 2007 to date in terms of voting pattern, people should just used to the fact that GEJ is the next president.
No amount of lies and propaganda can stop

nzeobi:
Nothing has changed from 2007 to date in terms of voting pattern, people should just used to the fact that GEJ is the next president.
No amount of lies and propaganda can stop

Wakeup man.. It's GeneralMarch4Buhari....yes it's happening today March 28.
Alot has changed since 2007...This is 2015....Even yourself, you are 8yrs older!

adioolayi:


Wakeup man.. It's GeneralMarch4Buhari....yes it's happening today March 28.
Alot has changed since 2007...This is 2015....Even yourself, you are 8yrs older!

Quote me tomorrow evening and remind me of what you just said

GEJ till Buhari quits presidential ambition

GEJ till 2019

A vote for Buhari is a victory for the masses over corruption.

Buhari will win for all I care.

Buhari wld win if pdp no rig as usual.

freeboy604:
Op our ancestors are far more educated than you and your analysis.

Mr. President has no vacancy for his position till 219.

Why mention the OP? Tell that to The cable writer!

Sai Buhari ... Sometimes I just wonder how people think... This same set of people were the one asking for the impeachment of jonathan during the new year subsidy gift which people were killed and nothing was done, lot of families were render homeless and many killed in the north and you still shouting trash here... Youths met their untimely death while seeking employment in a federal organization and even paid while there was no job for them... Wake up and stop been a robot... Vote change

today is 4 Buhari/Osinbajo victory

This is the most unbaised analysis i've seen. Truth is although am a GEJ supporter, most of us supporting him do it out of sentiment. Tribalism and born to rule syndrome governs our mind mostly.

Truth is, elections in under developed countries are not won through modesty and fact based campaigns, their won through greasing the palms of people and impossible manifestoes and a huge amount of propaganda. Buhari might be good(unconfirmed), but truth is he dosnt have enough to pass across his goodness to people, this is what jonathan has as an advantage. Gej to me is not worth it, and i have to problem with a muslim, my sentiment is the fact that a northerner happens to be the person. GEJ would win, not because he has popular support, but because he has the money needed to buy the needed support.. All in all








GEJ TILL 2019

Sai Buhari!
We the true Nigerians need the.........
Archaic ideas like building refineries ... Fuel depots...reducing the costs of governance .... Social security provision... Stopping crude exports n creating industries associated with functioning refineries... Am sure you don't need these things probably cos you're a militia member... Either opc massob..Niger delta militias or boko haram...sorry we bonafide Nigerians need them!

Ihavedecided to vote Change!
Sai Buhari!