989900:


If our refineries work @ 90% capacity, we should be getting roughly 17-19 million litres of PMS alone. Then you get some AGO, DPK and e.t.c. And if power maintains the momentum/improves and smuggling to other countries is checked, then we wouldn't even be needing the falsely touted 40 million litres of PMS/day.

We likely won't need to import more than 15-25% of what we do now. And that is quite some breather on forex which refined petroleum products alone account for roughly 40% or more presently!

Take out import of some other silly items, plus local production growth -- the Naira appreciates!

Then we need to tackle excess liquidity created by the CBN.

MizMyColi:
This was my reaction when I saw the news of Naira appreciation.



I am stepping out of my work place now.
I will read the OP and draw a conclusion as soon as I'm settled.

*modified*

I have read the OP

Well‎ ‎
*sighs*

Is it that Mr Godwin is simply unintelligent?
Is he under pressure of any kind to perform?‎
Why the cosmetic change?
‎
To be honest, I want to see transformational progressive change, but if Barcanista's ‎writeup is anything to go by, then it means we're still far from anywhere near el-dorado.
Smh really.‎

teeowl:
A guy that imports laptop and computer accessories by transfering dollars out from his domiciliary accounts... sells the laptop in his shop in Naira is not affected, so what are we talking about?

He deposits dollars and immediately the process of wiring it out starts before he leaves the banking hall... he did not just deposit it and leave it in the account... he initiates wire transfer on the deposit.... the same guy is changing dollars in black market, going to bank deposit the money with the instruction to wire immediately...

Mynd44:
To answer these questions, the OP needs to put in the post above what led to the Naira depreciating from 154/156 in November2014 to 196 in December 2014 first.

When you do that, we can then start to track the primary factors and how we can tackle the strength of the Naira viz-a-viz the price of goods in the market.

To take this issue from the events of May 2015 is just you attempting to put squares pegs in round holes.

MizMyColi:
This was my reaction when I saw the news of Naira appreciation.



I am stepping out of my work place now.
I will read the OP and draw a conclusion as soon as I'm settled.

*modified*

I have read the OP

Well‎ ‎
*sighs*

Is it that Mr Godwin is simply unintelligent?
Is he under pressure of any kind to perform?‎
Why the cosmetic change?
‎
To be honest, I want to see transformational progressive change, but if Barcanista's ‎writeup is anything to go by, then it means we're still far from anywhere near el-dorado.
Smh really.‎

jomoh:


I've taken my time to see that you're truly a critic and not a wailer that is why I felt the need to let you be cleared on some things.

Honestly it is hard for someone to respond to barcanista's threads without resulting to insults. When you see someone who once admitted to knowing little about economics condemning an economic/fiscal policy makes it very disturbing and annoying.

Having gone through you responses to issues and concluding that you must be an enlightened woman, I will like to start by asking this question. In what sane country do you see people selling foreign currencies on the street all in the name of BDCs. NONE.

The fact that he mentioned banks selling dollars to customers shows that he knows little about what he is criticising. Where in the country does he see banks selling dollars to people by hand. Any business man willing to do business with bank should approach his bank and request for purchase of dollars. The bank in turn presents his request to the CBN in form of Bidding which is done twice a week. If he is successful at bidding, the dollars will be paid into his domiciliary account while the amount equivalent to dollar he requested for will either be deducted from his account with the bank. All this at a very low official rate which is always lower than the Black market/BDC price. If you are the businessman which one will you prefer official one N199 from bank or black market/BDC 240.

So which busnessman was he talking about that will go to a BDC to buy $50K from a mallam at a high rate and go to bank to deposit. Even if there are people like that, it only goes to show that either the source of getting the money is questionable or the purpose for which the money is meant is.

I must also add that while filling the form for bidding, you have to state for what purpose you need the money for and what business you are into. So anyone trying to avoid going through the CBN most have something he/she is hiding.

Let's go back to CBN directive. The CBN work up and realise the sanity behind what some people has been shouting that BDCs and Speculators are destroying the economy in more ways than one. It is encouraging Money laundry, corruption, distabilisation of the currency(because the CBN don't know the amount of dollars in circulation) e.t.c.

Now CBN wants to stem the destructive influence of speculators and BDC's some people are not happy. With these directive, all transactions will have to go through the CBN making all transactions traceable from initiation to termination.

A smart and clean businessman will go through the bank to buy the dollar. The banks are not refusing to sell they just don't care what you do with it after buying. You might decide to withdraw it and toke home to design your house. Just don't bring it back for deposit because its not our official currency. If you wish to transfer oversees, tel your account have its BVN so that we can know the real owner and who to hold accountable if the transaction is found questionable later.

I worked with Access bank, GTB and am accounting Graduate.

kaboninc:


This is just what I've been wailing about. Lol.

When the RDAS and WDAS were still on, we had three markets - CBN, banks (interbank and autonomous) and black market. When demands (bids) are made, they are usually left overs due to fictitious applications. then it accumulates over time within the vaults of these banks. A bank buys on behalf of a customer at 161 (who many not fund his account or just buy, send abroad and send again doing round tripping) and sells at 183.

Where did they get that kind of money? Or is the bank's business now money changing?

Mynd44:
To answer these questions, the OP needs to put in the post above what led to the Naira depreciating from 154/156 in November2014 to 196 in December 2014 first.

When you do that, we can then start to track the primary factors and how we can tackle the strength of the Naira viz-a-viz the price of goods in the market.

To take this issue from the events of May 2015 is just you attempting to put squares pegs in round holes.

helpee:
@ barcanista, thanks for the analysis. kindly disregard those that have nothing to contribute except shouting wailing wailers. But i disagree with you. naira actually depreciated against the dollar because of excessive speculation. As you know, due to the ban on 41 products importers from accessing forex at the official rate, they had to source it from the parallel market. The excessive demand for forex by these importers from the black market at first created a scarcity that pushed the dollar up temporarily. speculators then cashed on that and started hoarding dollars thinking the dollar will keep rising against the naira especially since the new govt has no concrete plan in place. i was almost caught up too. i was advised to change most of my daily sales to dollars and then deposit in my DOM account in speculation of a further weakening of the naira. therefore, the banks were flooded by speculators with dollar deposits and many of them under the disguise of importation are laundering the money abroad via transfer. so, by refusing to accept the dollars, the CBN is playing a very smart move aagainst speculators. many people are therefore caught with dollars which they cant transfer or even deposit except to convert it to naira. therefore, the economy is flooded with dollars and demand is less than supply so the dollar must come down.
IS IT SUSTAINABLE/
Yes but we will temporarily suffer in sacrifice for a prosperous naira. importers will be temporarily caught unaware. the CBN will only create a bereaucratic bottleneck that will make it difficult for anybody except importers to access forex. BVN is one of the them. money launderers that used to access forex and transfer via DOM account will be cut off by the bottleneck. speculators will not find it attractive to hoard dollars because unless they ggenuinely need the dollars, they wont be able to get value for it since they cant spend it locally, cant transfer and cant even deposit. what do you need a useless dollar for?
it is not easy to open domicilliary account in neigbouring countries like you suggested unless you are a citizen or permanent/legal resident so few will be able to divert import activities to the neigbouring countries. therefore, even without increasing local production of imported stuffs, the naira will still stabilise against the dollar at a favourable position cos the most damage done to the naira usually comes from speculators. once we only access just the dollar we need for importation, school fees and other legal business abroad, we will stop speculating with the naira .
Even if things are temporarily expensive, we youths should take up the challenge and start producing. you can start with toothpick for example cos it is part of the products banned from accessing forex officially. the bottomline is that if it will be sustainable we must support the CBN in this quest. this is the first policy of this govt/CBN that i support.

jomoh:
Any business man willing to do business with bank should approach his bank and request for purchase of dollars. The bank in turn presents his request to the CBN in form of Bidding which is done twice a week. If he is successful at bidding, the dollars will be paid into his domiciliary account while the amount in Naira, equivalent to dollar he requested for, will be deducted from his account with the bank. All this at a very low official rate which is always lower than the Black market/BDC price. If you are the businessman which one will you prefer official one N199 from bank or black market/BDC 240.

So which businessman was he talking about that will go to a BDC to buy $50K from a mallam at a high rate and go to bank to deposit. Even if there are people like that, it only goes to show that either the source of getting the money is questionable or the purpose for which the money is meant is.

I must also add that while filling the form for bidding, you have to state for what purpose you need the money and what business you are into. So anyone trying to avoid going through the CBN most have something he/she is hiding.

Let's go back to CBN's directive. The CBN woke up and realise the sanity behind what some people has been shouting that BDCs and Speculators are destroying the economy in more ways than one. It is encouraging Money laundry, corruption, distabilisation of the currency(because the CBN don't know the amount of dollars in circulation) e.t.c.

Now CBN wants to stem the destructive influence of speculators and BDC's some people are not happy. With these directive, all transactions will have to go through the CBN making all transactions traceable from initiation to termination.

A smart and clean businessman will go through the bank to buy the dollar. The banks are not refusing to sell they just don't care what you do with it after buying. You might decide to withdraw it and toke home to design your house. Just don't bring it back for deposit because its not our official currency. If you wish to transfer oversees, tel your account have its BVN so that we can know the real owner and who to hold accountable if the transaction is found questionable later.

Now the problem I see is that most people are used to PDP's destructive way of handling the economy that the find it hard to see the sensibility in this directive. The case of barcanista is different not only is he finding it hard to adjust he is very pained that the correction it being made by the government of someone he campaigned rigorously against. Instead of him to accept that he miscalculated and supported the wrong person, he is willing to condemn every policy of the government just to remain relevant at the expense of our great country's progress.

I worked with Access bank, GTB and am an accounting Graduate.

lastpage:


Some parts of your post are not true ...or let me just say they are "plain naive"!
I will just summarise that l was at a bank in Lagos late last year, to be specific, it was GTBank at Around Adeniran Ogunsanya area.
I wanted to buy some forex to make an offshore payment for a vehicle l bought in the USA.
The Bank staff, told me they cant sell Dollars to me, despite my request that l have proof of the transactions and it is legit and l have the naira equivalent.
Funnily, and this is where it really gets funny, the Head of the forex desk at that GTBank branch, directed me to a "Mallam' who was lurking nearby and told me "That Mallam can help you".

I went to Mallam and told him what l want.
Mallam said no problem, he would sell to me but the price was about #30naira per Dollar higher than the bank rate!

I went back to the GTBank Staff and asked him why he thinks l should buy it at that rate when all they needed do what use my Form-M to bid on my behalf with CBN?
GTBank staff just looked at me and said Oga, if you really need it, that is how we can help you get it.

Meanwhile, as l was there "speaking grammar", Mallam has sold Dollars to a few people who dont give a hoot!
And the scary part of it was that l saw with my own eyes as the GTBank staff was transferring the Dollar (which they bought officially at a lower rate from CBN, to the Mallam), and l assume they all share the 'extra' on top.


The juiciest part of all these is that I HAVE EVERYTHING CAPTURED SECRETLY ON VIDEO.
I am torn between exposing this scam (and probably ending the career of those involved) or holding onto it and thus allowing such scam to be ongoing.
As someone who have worked in various banks in the late 90's and early 2000's, l have seen it and l can tell you authoritatively that the scam is sanctioned by the Management of every Bank, right from the M.D., to the "trusted" head of Forex Dept in every bank.

so, if anyone should be held responsible for this scam, it should be the "big fishes" (from the Managers, to the M.D's,), not just the "small fries" who man the forex desk.
Welcome to Round-tripping 2.0!

We are still on a "long Tin".


Lastpage!

kaecy5:
@barcanista:

to your doubters, i can say wait and see.

today it happened to me, i went to the bank to transfer $1000 to my nephew in Canada

the bank refused to collect my money in dollars, they refuse to transfer the equivalent from my Naira account, claiming some CBN stories,

i had to find someone in UK to send the money. they claim i should go get form M state all the reasons and wait in line like others maybe 2 or 3 weeks time.

now imagine what would happen to a business man trying to pay for goods in china when the bank is rejecting foreign currency?

MizMyColi:
This was my reaction when I saw the news of Naira appreciation.



I am stepping out of my work place now.
I will read the OP and draw a conclusion as soon as I'm settled.

*modified*

I have read the OP

Well‎ ‎
*sighs*

Is it that Mr Godwin is simply unintelligent?
Is he under pressure of any kind to perform?‎
Why the cosmetic change?
‎
To be honest, I want to see transformational progressive change, but if Barcanista's ‎writeup is anything to go by, then it means we're still far from anywhere near el-dorado.
Smh really.‎

teeowl:
@ Barcanista - if you a business man and you want to wire money out of your account to make purchases for imports, the bank would accept your dollar deposit on the condition that your are going to immediately wire it out of your account. The reject your dollars when you just want to dump it in their vaults in the hope that you would make profit when the dollar appreciates against the Naira... Take note.

lastpage:


Some parts of your post are not true ...or let me just say they are "plain naive"!
I will just summarise that l was at a bank in Lagos late last year, to be specific, it was GTBank at Around Adeniran Ogunsanya area.
I wanted to buy some forex to make an offshore payment for a vehicle l bought in the USA.
The Bank staff, told me they cant sell Dollars to me, despite my request that l have proof of the transactions and it is legit and l have the naira equivalent.
Funnily, and this is where it really gets funny, the Head of the forex desk at that GTBank branch, directed me to a "Mallam' who was lurking nearby and told me "That Mallam can help you".

I went to Mallam and told him what l want.
Mallam said no problem, he would sell to me but the price was about #30naira per Dollar higher than the bank rate!

I went back to the GTBank Staff and asked him why he thinks l should buy it at that rate when all they needed do what use my Form-M to bid on my behalf with CBN?
GTBank staff just looked at me and said Oga, if you really need it, that is how we can help you get it.

Meanwhile, as l was there "speaking grammar", Mallam has sold Dollars to a few people who dont give a hoot!
And the scary part of it was that l saw with my own eyes as the GTBank staff was transferring the Dollar (which they bought officially at a lower rate from CBN, to the Mallam), and l assume they all share the 'extra' on top.


The juiciest part of all these is that I HAVE EVERYTHING CAPTURED SECRETLY ON VIDEO.
I am torn between exposing this scam (and probably ending the career of those involved) or holding onto it and thus allowing such scam to be ongoing.
As someone who have worked in various banks in the late 90's and early 2000's, l have seen it and l can tell you authoritatively that the scam is sanctioned by the Management of every Bank, right from the M.D., to the "trusted" head of Forex Dept in every bank.

so, if anyone should be held responsible for this scam, it should be the "big fishes" (from the Managers, to the M.D's,), not just the "small fries" who man the forex desk.
Welcome to Round-tripping 2.0!

We are still on a "long Tin".


Lastpage!

Mynd44:

Shoutout si awon goons mi
Awon erukus me
Awon loni kima para kima keeping cools mi
So bi gobe sele ninu hood mi
Teba gbo bajinatu ema ri awon goons mi

kaecy5:
@barcanista:

to your doubters, i can say wait and see.

today it happened to me, i went to the bank to transfer $1000 to my nephew in Canada

the bank refused to collect my money in dollars, they refuse to transfer the equivalent from my Naira account, claiming some CBN stories,

i had to find someone in UK to send the money. they claim i should go get form M state all the reasons and wait in line like others maybe 2 or 3 weeks time.

now imagine what would happen to a business man trying to pay for goods in china when the bank is rejecting foreign currency?

oluwaahmed:
@barcanista if u did elementary economics, u'll knw dat increase in demand will lead 2 an increase in d price esp wer der R no substitutes. In SANER countries, u will exchange dollar 2 deir currency b4 u can spend a dime. It's only in 9ja wer sme pple are paid in dollars & sme second schls & even pri uni collect tuition in USD. Y did USD increase astronomically in d blk mkt? Was it nt partly because of d elections. Politicians wer spendin money in dollars, pple wer exchangin naira 4 dolls because dey taught der wld be crisis in our country, because demand exceed supply, price of usd naturally went up! because pple do d wrg tin regularly doesn't mean it's rite. Ders form A 4 individual transfers amd form M for BTA's. LC(letter of Credits) will help finance purchases of goods & services frm foreign countries. Wat dis means is dat usd will greatly depreciate b4 naira. More biz 4 d banks will increase profit & thus employment opportunities. D latest is dat banks av even stopped trf 4rm dorm acct. Good wrk by CBN

pee777:
I have so much waited for this policy to be implemented as a way to curb local spending and keeping of dollar and other foreign currrencies. My analysis before now is:
1) All transactions involving foreign currencies must pass through your naira account and the bank does the conversion and does the equivalent transfer to the beneficiary. So also any foreign transaction that will hit your account will be automatically converted and naira equivalent deposited into your account. I use paypal and most times the naira equivalent is deducted thereby making me not to even use my dom account again for petty online or foreign transfer.

2) Foreign cash transaction for businesses in Nigeria to be cancel and dom accounts closed. The CBN should strengthen online banking and cashless policy so that transactions and exchange of money between businesses for transactions goes through the bank via online payment systems. No physical foreign currency will be seen as all transactions goes through the bank and bank only uses equivalent and credits or debits naira accounts. This will crash the dollar.
The sad thing is that businesses like BDC and the aboki that changes dollar will be drastically killed.

Emperortj93:
Hope

menxer:
there is something about all these pro-barcanista arguments that I don't understand, is it the BDC or CBN that should control/decide what happens to our currency, short, medium or long term?

we cannot/should not let the fate of our currency depend on pleasing DOM account holders, if you cannot use the official windows offered by CBN to do your business transactions, pack/park well.