THE MARKET TODAY -03/08/2015

The market was very volatile today as expected and the overall performance of stocks were an indication of the general market trend. As previously said, 75% of stocks follow the general market trend. The index suffered a loss today and the DOW was down over 1% at a point closing now at apprx. 0.82% the SPY (S&P 500) also dropped .64% while the NASDAQ .50%.
At one point today my portfolio was up 500 dollars but down 10 dollars at this time of writing. The fluctuation I believe was due to the pressure on the Grease market following the crash of their market today falling 30% when it opened.
Personally my stocks were able to even out the big drop in the market today with FIT at 6.5% up at a point.

FIT
Based on my analysis last week, FIT hit a new high today and crossed my entry point. The stock is due to report this week (Wednesday) and it seems the market is gearing up for a good result so I will keep fingers crossed. See the graph today and compare it to Friday.

Market Direction S&P 500

The Third graph shows the performance of S&P 500 up till today. As you can see we continue to trade in ranges highlighted by the support and resistance line. Eventually there would be a break out on either the up or the down side. Looking at the last candle yesterday, we could see a Hammer head, but the head was red and with a wick a little bit longer than the body ( positive sign). This tell us that the market sold off at a point during the day, but there was an eventual by back. If the head of the candle was green instead of Red, this would have shown a better investors sentiments ready for today. But the wick at the bottom of the candle showed there was a buy back.

The reason for solid understanding of the Candle stick pattern, in the interpretation of the general market movement is that it enables you to see if it is your stock that is doing badly or its the general market. If you have bought stocks with good fundamental in the first place, and you can see that its action is in line with the market, just hold back as you have only defined and accepted your risk. There is no point worrying once the ship is off the shore, you will only be trading based on emotions.

YOU HAVE TO COMPLETELY TAKE EMOTIONS OUT OF YOUR TRADE. YES IT IS DO ABLE USING GOOD MONEY MANAGEMENT STRATEGY AND RISK PROFILING.


SKX

Pic4 - shows the graph of SKX as of yesterday following the brilliant performance yesterday, I do expect a pull back in the price of the stock to Point 2 and worst case to Pt 1. If the stock moves to Pt 1, I will buy 20% more of my holding when it moved to point 2. If it does not pull back beyond Pt 2 then the uptrend is still very strong and anyone who had missed out of the initial buy to place an entry at price 152 dollars.

Let us see how this plays out over the week,

Have a happy trading week.

I was in the red today. But the experts are saying that August is typically slow. I'm just glad I have different stocks to serve as a hedge. I got burned by apple really bad, lost 3.81% from my start point and honestly i'm expecting it to drop even more, apparently it went below its 200day average, its free fall from here to maybe $110, but i'm Long Apple. Paypal is doing ok and I expect it to go towards $45. What do you think about all the hype behind Disney? Is it still a buy at this price? Can you run an analysis of my holdings below and suggest which one I should sell, if any? You should teach me how you interprete these charts.

@ YerYer

The difficult thing is that I myself cannot track all these stocks at once. I have 30 good stock in my watchlist but I only buy and track five, that way I could pay more attention and research better.

Apple as you know hit 200 day moving average, we hope it bounces back but who know. The reason for this is that apple declared a good result but the forward looking guidance was not exceptional. Another thing they fail to do was to report on, or make comments on Apple watch, indicating the watch is not performing as expected.

FIT - has been projected to beat expectation this week and you an already see the volume traded today. At one point the stock hit 6.7 % before pulling back.

Note - SKX - traded at 150 dollar a share at a volume of 10million shares last week. That is a staggering 150 Billion dollars trade.

Watch this space.

Jideams:
@ YerYer

The difficult thing is that I myself cannot track all these stocks at once. I have 30 good stock in my watchlist but I only buy and track five, that way I could pay more attention and research better.

Apple as you know hit 200 day moving average, we hope it bounces back but who know. The reason for this is that apple declared a good result but the forward looking guidance was not exceptional. Another thing they fail to do was to report on, or make comments on Apple watch, indicating the watch is not performing as expected.

FIT - has been projected to beat expectation this week and you an already see the volume traded today. At one point the stock hit 6.7 % before pulling back.

Watch this space.

Got you. I watched an interview with sketchers CEO and he's still saying there's much upside to that stock and he felt very confident. Also, the CEO of FIT was recently featured in a photoshoot, lol my reasoning is, if your earnings result isn't good, you wouldn't be in flambouyant photoshoots, so I think the CEO is confident about the earnings report, but I will wait until afterwards.

Hopefully if FIT delivers this week, ill hold it till the next earning season. Know what, let the numbers speak for itself and then we react to it.

ok....listening and learning

ummmm...is tdameritrade only for those in US or with US visa

xbone2k6:
ummmm...is tdameritrade only for those in US or with US visa

Not Realy, you should be able to Open a TD Ameritrade account from anywhere ( not sure of IRAN and south Korea). I did open mine when i was in netherlands, it might take some effort as they might need you to fax documents. It took me about 4wks to complete and all was fine from then on.

Note once you open it online, you will get a dummy account you can use to familiarise yourself with the plaftform before you can then fund it once all is ok.

Any more question, Ill update ASAP

EPAM – EARNING

Yesterday “EPAM” one of my holdings released its results. Actually the conference call will be taking place today before the opening bell. When I checked my position so far prior to the result I realised that “EPAM” had not make any profit in my portfolio so It will be a huge risk if I went into earnings and the stock drops 10 -15% in price. In addition to this, I have another stock FIT reporting today at close of business. FIT on the other hand had made me a profit of about 11% going into earning so if it drops 15% I would have lost only 5%.

After reviewing my position, I decided to drop my holding on EPAM by 75% (from 68 to 17) and hold onto FIT into earnings. What I have tried to do here is to carry out my risk analysis and exposure to two earning report in a day. In this case I have decided to mitigate it by dropping my holding in one by 75% and hold onto the other one. Note, EPAM might jump 10%, which means I would have lost out if I had not sold, but in stocks, a bird in hand is worth 10 in the bush.

If you have a position of 10 dollar and it drops 50%, it brings you down to 5dollar. To get back to 10 Dollar, your stock has to rise 100 %. That tells you this is a game of defence rather than attack.
Lets see how it plays out on the 5th

our 101 thread is not moving o.

xbone2k6:
our 101 thread is not moving o.

TRUE - I am waiting for the arrival of a book from which I could scan diagrams for upload. My apologies.

Follow UP on EPAM

Yesterday, I decided to reduce my position on EPAM by 75% based on 3 factors
1. I was not in profit on EPAM going into earnings.
2. Two of my stocks were reporting on the same day EPAM and FIT (High risk)
3. I was already 10% up in FIT, so if it drops 15% in value following earnings, I would be -5% at the end of the day (fair enough)

Following the sale of FIT, I positioned myself for the purchase of another stock "UVE". UVE declared yesterday and the technical graph showed by there are more room for movement.

Ready for the following day, I position my buy at 3% & 5% above and below the previous days closing price respectively. When the market opened, my position was executed at 3.5% above the previous day's close and I made 5% out of the day's move.

Cutting long story short, you must always analyse your position and mitigate against risk. Ensure you protect yourself as there are always something to buy the next day or week.

See the graphs of EPAM, UVE following the decision and my portfolio before market close.

Good call, FIT beat estimates. Its now worth a whooping $11billion though, too steep for me.

Hi all,

Yesterday provided me with one of the wildest movement in my portfolio ever experienced. The market close quite well and I was 10% up in my portfolio (700 dollars) profit at the close of market. FIT reported, beat estimate, better than expected and zoomed my portfolio to 14% up with a total of (1000 dollars) for the day, only to come back an hour later to see I was down (- 50 dollars) at one point.

In short, although FIT beat estimate there was something in the earnings report that was not convincing so it was sold. See the graph of FIT at close of trade.

Waking up this morning, I checked my portfolio only to see I was up 700 dollars again, not sure what the investors were thinking about, but I await what happens when the market opens today. That will provide a confirmation of the direction of FIT.

As previously said no one can predict, we can only protect ourselves. please see attached graphs.

Every which way but lost

The heading above described the event in the market today, and up till now, I have no idea what went wrong. I plan to investigate further to see what actually resulted in the bloody Thursday. Today, I lost 50% of my profit, with an account draw down of $1400. The index was down as follows

NASDAX - 1.6%
SPY - - 0.82
DOW - - 0.68%

in face all my 30 leading stocks were down, meaning there is not way to hide. I was so low that I had to struggle to put this together just to let people know that there are bad days... Yes there are bad day, and it do not get much worse than this. There was no hiding place.

Take a close look at the SPY graph, you will see that it is still trading in the red and blue line range. in fact the market bounced back on the red line, telling me the market is respecting the red line. based on this, if the market drops below the red line tomorrow, i will close all my positions and wait for a favourable season to get back into the market. We have had Five straight days of loss... I mean five straight days. If tomorrow is not green and we move below the red line. I am out of this market.. no questions asked.

Based on the tests so far, I expect the market to bounce off the line but still keep within range. this test has confirmed my support line once again, the more it is tested the stronger the test ground becomes. if it is broken and we close below it at any time, I am out of this market.


I have decided to show you all my indicators so you could see the momentum of the market. You will see that the momentum of the market is below 0, so there is no buying pressure in the market. lets see what happens tomorrow.

THE MARKET

The general market continue to trade in a range between the upper (resistance) and the lower (support) bar as indicated in the diagram in the last week. Thursday showed a heavy selling pressure on the tech stocks (NASDAQ) and all other indices with the body of the candle (second to the last) engulfing the last three candles (candles on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday). This is a good confirmation of a selling pressure and the need to step aside.

Here comes the beauty of technical analysis. It shows you the finger print of the traders and enable you to decide what to do the next day well in advance of the market. Note, you are not predicting the market, you are interpreting the price action of the graph in order to prepare for your next move.

Ok here we go

On Thursday although the market sold off, the last candle respected the support line. It traded off heavily, and once the bottom of the candle hit the support line, it bounced back and people started buying back. This behaviour provides you with a confidence of what is happening, and you are not in the dark, feeling the walls and wondering your way out. Note, because the body of the candle is so long, we expect to see some sell off the following day, but we expect the market to close somewhere around the support line telling me we have respected the support line once again.

Friday provides us with a confirmation that the market was sold off and bought back again, it was sold off well beyond the support line, but it was bought back and closed right on the support line. Note that this support line had been drawn since Monday or Tuesday this week, I was not drawing the line to fit the candle, it is the candles that are reacting to and supporting the line.

What we have here in candle stick (the last candle) Is referred to as a “hammer” a small head and a long shadow, the shadow is the long line below the head of the candle. If that head was green in colour rather than a red, I would have told you to prepare yourself for a buy on Monday. Please see similar “hammer head” candles in the graph and see what happens in the next day. Please note, this is a probability and not confirmed, anything could happen over the weekend, but you need something to tell you or show you what might happen next.

MY POSITIONS

EPAM

FIT

SKX

GPRO

UVE

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Quick lesson on Candle stick pattern. Compare this to the graphs I have provided above and make meaning out of it.

Hi Guys,

Please take the time to read and understand these candle stick pattern, I will go ahead in US MARKET 101 link to explain it further

Go on I'm with u on this.

MARKET TODAY - 10/08/2015

The Market showed a Bullish sign today as expected following on from the closing candle on Friday. The candle on Friday showed a Hammer at the support line telling, us that the trend was about to reverse.

Two of the indexes, see below, showed a strong buy today, if you look at the candles, they are full candle with no wick above or below. They are full Bullish candles, telling me that there is a strong buying appetite buy investors. The only concern I have is that there was no volume in the trade. People were buying, there was no sell, but the buy volume was still less than all the sell volume last week.

This tell me that they are cautiously optimistic. Really, there is nothing to be optimistic about, the optimism will kick in when we have a but at high volume above the resistance line. Then we can go all in.

Lets see what tomorrow brings.

Conclusion - hold tight with no new buys.. watch cautiously for stocks showing sigh of weakness and sell ASAP.

Today was a crazy day in the market. AQXP went from $2-$55 in 2 days! i made money off it on friday, but i was too scared to trade it today. However i banked trading VLTC and INO. Made a total of $278 today.

zPixel:
Today was a crazy day in the market. AQXP went from $2-$55 in 2 days! i made money off it on friday, but i was too scared to trade it today. However i banked trading VLTC and INO. Made a total of $278 today.

Hi zpixel,

I have just checked the stocks you were trading in and cannot really understand why you bought them. Can you throw some light into why you are trading it... I want to see if there is something I am missing. I do not think I would have traded each of them for the following reason

IMO - Is well below its 50day moving average, and more importantly the 50day moving average is below the 200. This should be the reverse. ok back to your previous comments, you are a day trader... how do you choose the stock to trade in for the day when there are 10,000 stocks trading daily.

I will be intrested to hear from you how u choose what to trade in.

I have just checked the stocks you were trading in and cannot really understand why you bought them. Can you throw some light into why you are trading it

I traded those stocks because they were momentum stocks; meaning a lot of traders were watching this stocks because they gapped up or down because of a news catalyst.

I'm a very short term trader, i don't really care much about 50 and 200 moving averages. I only use the 9-EMA, VWAP and RSI

how do you choose the stock to trade in for the day when there are 10,000 stocks trading daily.

I use a scanner called Trade ideas. I run the gap scanner every morning to see stocks moving pre-market on catalyst and i create a watchlist from that.

I've attached a chart below that shows my entries and exits. I also shorted this stock on the way down.

Let me know if you need any further clarification.

@Jidearms and Co. You guys are doing a good job and am following. I once had an interest in US stocks but discovered that there were no US brokers willing to provide brokerage services to me as a Nigerian residing in Nigeria.

Going through this thread as awaken my interest, now do are there US brokers that accept Nigerians

Thanks.

@ Gbengazzee,

To be honest that is a question I cannot answer at the moment, We will need people to test the water and see what is doable. I opened by account in the netherlands and am based in London at the moment.

@Gbengazzee
I opened my account in Nigeria with a discount brokerage firm called suretrader. They cater for international customers with a minimum deposit of $500 with a 6:1 leverage.

zPixel:
@Gbengazzee
I opened my account in Nigeria with a discount brokerage firm called suretrader. They cater for international customers with a minimum deposit of $500 with a 6:1 leverage.

@zPixel

Thanks for that.... could someone follow up on this an confirm if successful... will be interested in the outcome.

Market WRAP – 12/08/2015

Market continue to show extreme volatility with a serious swing down today with one of the major averages dipping as low as -1.5% (NASDAQU) only to close at -1.29%. Now, if you took a close look at the SPY graph you will see once again that the market respected the support line ending with a least bearish candle.
Note, although the candle looks like an hammer, it is not because it has a little wick on top of the small body. Please see the candle stick pattern in one of my posts above.
So far we can see that the experience we are seeing is not attributed to a single stock but the general stock market. This continue to confirm that the Market discounts all. If all the Market is behaving badly, your stocks are likely to align. When you have an understanding of what is going on in the Market, you are like to be less afraid and shaken out.

ACTION

Now what you need to do is to adjust your stops to a convenient position, If you are lucky the market bounces up tomorrow, quickly adjust your stops up so that you can take some profit off the table if things go worse down the line. Look for your weakest stock and make plan to sell if thing to not improve.
GPRO
My GPRO lost 359 dollars yesterday and the closest stock to it lost 40 dollars. This tells me GPRO is the weakest link here. Right now, I do not need to sell it as it is close to my stop loss, but moving forward, I will adjust my stop up every percent on GPRO as it is no showing strength.

CONCLUSION

1. Do not initiate new position.
2. Keep on the lookout for stocks that have good potential and resisting the market loss (SKX) confirmed.
3. Get ready to sell and go into cash if things do not improve, If SPY breaks down below the support line.
4. If it bounces up today, adjust your stop to a comfort zone and if you are taken out, do not make a new buy until we are in a confirmed uptrend. Possibly in September.
HAPPY TRADING.
NOTE, do not get frustrated, this is a very good learning curve and once the sun shines we will be off in high speed. The essence is to understand where we are an plan our next move.

Please have a look at the graph below and you will see that the SPY has been in a sell for the last 7day, we had only one green and the green volume is less than the sell. This tells me we are still in the wood and have to trade cautiously. We are in a defensive mode, do not initiate new trade, I am on optimistic trader so i do not short the market. The psychology is different. Imagine driving from Lagos to Ibadan in reverse gear

Now the long list below shows my supper stocks, this is the list from which I chose the stocks to buy, the fundamentals has been confirmed but only waiting for a technical confirmation to buy. All the stocks were RED at a point to day, telling me there was no hiding place.

MOTTO – Plan your trade and trade your plan. You cannot trade the market as the market can never be wrong.

12/08/2015

So far I have been so distracted with the performance of the market and have been unable to analyse the performance of a stock in relation to the general market. Let me quickly provide a full analysis of a sock I believe to be holding up so far.
AMBA
Fundamental remains solid, our next earning report is not due to till the 01/09/2015, but lets have a close look at the technical analysis.
I flagged the stock for a buy at the point area market with a vertical dotted line. Since then the stock has moved up and pulled back but you would have not been shaken out. The pattern of movement is in relation to the general market although better. In this case we have a resistance as it could not break the ceiling on the high (the green line at 128.73) but you will notice that the lows are higher. A strong stock will have a higher high and a higher low. In this case, one condition is fulfilled, ( a higher low).

Another positive move here is that the stock had only retraced 23.6% of its previous run and had held constant at this line. Ideally, if a stock retraced 38.2% of its previous run, the up trend is assumed to be intact. So this stock is still holding up and keeping its head high, and the closing price yesterday is still higher than my entry call.

The final positive trait on this stock is that it bounced back at its 200 day moving average. Please add this to your next possible buy when we have a confirmed uptrend.
Confirmed buy price for a long position will be 128.83 dollars

See AMBA on a hourly, daily, weeky graph

CERE looks like a serious mover today. I will update later

I ended today with a $197 profit. Although CERE didn't move as i expected but i was still able to capture some profit on the way down. EBIO saved the day.