4Play:


Can you explain to me why a huge decline in export income is something to be celebrated?

Why would a decline of 1.8 trillion Naira in income by comparison to the same quarter last year be cause for celebration and proof that we are moving in the right direction? I am seriously puzzled and bow to your superior knowledge on this matter.

I am seriously puzzled that you can't fathom the fact that oil price as at the same quarter last year was $106.5 and currently it is $40.79. Don't politicize everything bro, this numbers are actually good when compared to global economics.

MrPeterson:
Walahi if i see oga jona kai kai i dey vex oo. Can you imagine only in 3 months ?

Wow

superman

Truth234:


The truth is this 2Q is better than last year when compared, as at the same quarter last year crude oil was $106.5 per barrel and currently as I am typing this it is $40.79 a barrel.

2014 2Q earnings ACCOUNTED for was 6,659 trillion even when the price almost triple this current price, don't forget that we had more trading partners then before China and India reduced their volumes.

2013 2Q was the poorest, our revenue was 5,341 trillion when crude oil peaked at $112 a barrel. Something is actually working now, its either this is the reflection of the leakages this administration has been championing or result of working system.

You are being disingenuous here bro but I won't let you hoodwink the gullible masses on Nairaland. The article stated that quarter on quarter, the revenue declined by as much as 38.5% in naira that is. Now, considering that the naira has been devalued so much between the two periods in comparison, a succinct analysis requires that you convert the naira earnings in both periods into dollars (at the prevalent exchange rates in each period) then make a comparison since Nigeria earns dollars from these export transactions.

If you do this, you'd realise that the drop in earning is more than 50% in real terms ie in dollars.

My presido Buhari it shall be well with u

phyllosilicate:

I could remember how Okonjo Iweala was shouting how Nigeria was broke, how Nigerians should tighten their belt because of the falling price of crude oil and that Nigeria would borrow to be able to finance the 2015 budget. But in just 3 months almost 60% of the Budget has been generate just from petroleum products alone, not including revenues generated internally and other export.
IF THIS MUCH COULD BE GENERATED WITHIN 3 MONTHS WHEN OIL PRICE IS ABOUT $50 PER BARREL, WHERE WAS OUR MONEY GOING TO WHEN IT WAS $110 PER BARREL?

Bros, that Okonjo woman na wash and should be probed further.

beright:
My presido Buhari it shall be well with u

Amen! And also with you.

sunnyb0b0:


Bro, I don't seem to get your point.

I read your one sided analysis and can't be laugh. Now let me ask you some questions, if there is -38% ( a negative) pure profit accrued the country in the period under review, and like you rightly posited, it is due to a decline in naira. What then is responsible for a decline int the naira?

Especially considering the fact that the value of naira refused to appreciate when the value of crude was circa $150.

How come the foreign reserve was declining instead of appreciating when the value of crude was high and it even depreciated further now that the value of crude has declined by close to 60%?

We prayed for change and God in his mercy answered our prayer.

Truth234:


I am seriously puzzled that you can't fathom the fact that oil price as at the same quarter last year was $106.5 and currently it is $40.79. Don't politicize everything bro, this numbers are actually good when compared to global economics.

Mea culpa: I goofed in my initial post by equating export income to total merchandise trade in 2014

That being said, there is nothing to celebrate. You attempt to mislead by equating today's oil price to the average oil price in the 2nd quarter of 2015. In the second quarter of 2015, average OPEC prices was $60 per barrel. http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/40.htm

Bear in mind that this article refers to Naira export income. 2.5 trillion Naira in oil exports equates to $12.7bn at 197 Naira to the dollar. In Q1 2014, we exported 3.23 trillion Naira in oil which equates to $20bn at 160 Naira to the dollar. The point is that there is nothing to celebrate but even bad news is now celebrated.

sunnyb0b0:


You are being disingenuous here bro but I won't let you hoodwink the gullible masses on Nairaland. The article stated that quarter on quarter, the revenue declined by as much as 38.5% in naira that is. Now, considering that the naira has been devalued so much between the two periods in comparison, a succinct analysis requires that you convert the naira earnings in both periods into dollars (at the prevalent exchange rates in each period) then make a comparison since Nigeria earns dollars from these export transactions.

If you do this, you'd realise that the drop in earning is more than 50% in real terms ie in dollars.

Don't you realise that with this submission you are further indicting Gej the jerk? You yourself said there is a 38% due to a decline of the naira. Now assuming naira is 155 to a dollar as was under GEJ ( comparing like for like) will you still have a decline?

The 38% decline in pure profit is eroded by the decline in the naira assume the naira was same as it was under the jerk?

Evaromantik:

bro,dnt mind these imbecilic brainwashed APC fans babbling here and there............when Buhari was in PTF how much went missing?,and the missing money was later recovered in his london account......thats why my tummy almost bursted when i heard of Buhari fighting corruption

You lot are quick to point to point to when Buhari was in PTF but fail to point to the fact that he has been so many times probed and found not to have committed any crime but you all cry like a child whose pocket money has been stolen when you hear GEJ the jerk will be probed.

Biased idiotas.

4Play:


Mea culpa: I goofed in my initial post by equating export income to total merchandise trade in 2014

That being said, there is nothing to celebrate. You attempt to mislead by equating today's oil price to the average oil price in the 2nd quarter of 2015. In the second quarter of 2015, average OPEC prices was $60 per barrel. http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/40.htm

Bear in mind that this article refers to Naira export income. 2.5 trillion Naira in oil exports equates to $12.7bn at 197 Naira to the dollar. In Q1 2014, we exported 3.23 trillion Naira in oil which equates to $20bn at 160 Naira to the dollar. The point is that there is nothing to celebrate but even bad news is now celebrated.

The point is there is a lot to celebrate in this figure. PMB achieved these figures with over 30% decline of the naira. Now use the current value of naira for the figures achieved under the jerk of an ex president and you will see how much of a mess we had to deal with under him.

You must compare all situations and circumstances if you must be a fair judge right?

arsetalks:
Don't you realise that with this submission you are further indicting Gej the jerk? You yourself said there is a 38% due to a decline of the naira. Now assuming naira is 155 to a dollar as was under GEJ ( comparing like for like) will you still have a decline?

The 38% decline in pure profit is eroded by the decline in the naira assume the naira was same as it was under the jerk?

My friend give up. You are not making sense. If I export 160 million Naira worth of products when 160 Naira is equals to 1 dollar and later export 80 million Naira when 197 Naira is equal to 1 dollar. Exports have declined 50% in Naira but in dollar terms, which is the main gauge you should look at, the decline is circa 60%.

The fall in Naira shows the trade figures, as bad as it already is, is a lot worse than people realise.

Buhari i want to see dat money translet into meaniful projects..

yemivictor:

Amen! And also with you.

thanks and same with you

phyllosilicate:

I could remember how Okonjo Iweala was shouting how Nigeria was broke, how Nigerians should tighten their belt because of the falling price of crude oil and that Nigeria would borrow to be able to finance the 2015 budget. But in just 3 months almost 60% of the Budget has been generate just from petroleum products alone, not including revenues generated internally and other export.
IF THIS MUCH COULD BE GENERATED WITHIN 3 MONTHS WHEN OIL PRICE IS ABOUT $50 PER BARREL, WHERE WAS OUR MONEY GOING TO WHEN IT WAS $110 PER BARREL?

Those are the export figures. They are not what the government receives.

I thin k only 60 or at most 70% of the oil receipts go the FG. The other goes to the private oil company that drills the oil.

This report is misleading

The true state of things that can be gleaned from the exchnage rate. Its normally a very good barometer. Its presently in a dreadful state with a very high disparity between the official and parallel market

sunnyb0b0:


You are being disingenuous here bro but I won't let you hoodwink the gullible masses on Nairaland. The article stated that quarter on quarter, the revenue declined by as much as 38.5% in naira that is. Now, considering that the naira has been devalued so much between the two periods in comparison, a succinct analysis requires that you convert the naira earnings in both periods into dollars (at the prevalent exchange rates in each period) then make a comparison since Nigeria earns dollars from these export transactions.

If you do this, you'd realise that the drop in earning is more than 50% in real terms ie in dollars.

Do you realised that 38.5% is the difference between exports of last quarter and this quarter? This is actually in favour of this administration, there was a reduction of 38.5 % in quantities export and yet this administration was able to generate 4.3 trillion with a surplus of over 1.4 trillion.

When you take into account how much was sold the same quarter last year and this year that there was a decline of 38.5 percent in exports because last administration does not have any trade agreement with any of our trading partners, which means they can back-out of any trade when they like. You won't understand now until Iran's oil hits global market.

The issue of currency devaluation does not even hold here at all, because an economist knows that devaluation does not equal export volume or was the currency devalued in 2013 of the same quarter when oil price was $112 a barrel?

God bless you. Another thing most commentators here aren't even looking at,is the fact that these figures are gross revenues and that expenses incurred in generating these revenues,haven't been deducted. They just assume the gross figures posted here,are available for govt to spend. Everyday,nairaland keeps showing me how ignorant and gullible most Nigerians are. Some people are claiming that there is now a form of transparency in govt because these figures were released. A lil bit of personal checks on the NBS website,would reveal to everyone that these figures have always been published by the NBS for every quater and as such,there is nothing new and special in this. Most Nigerian aren't only gullible;they also like to celebrate mediocrity.

Russellval:

Unfortunately my brother you do not understand what you just read. The report said ''Nigeria earned'' not ''FG earned'' which means private sector is also included. If you compare it to same period in 2014 you will notice that export actually declined by 38.5% which indicates a slow down in growth and should get you worried rather than rejoicing.

arsetalks:
The point is there is a lot to celebrate in this figure. PMB achieved these figures with over 30% decline of the naira. Now use the current value of naira for the figures achieved under the jerk of an ex president and you will see how much of a mess we had to deal with under him.

You must compare all situations and circumstances if you must be a fair judge right?

I seriously don't understand what you are saying. People reacted to the misleading intepretation of the article which suggested that FG budget revenues was the same as oil export income. It is not. The FG is still borrowing like crazy:

The Federal Government is planning to sell N195.17bn ($981m) worth of three-month, six-month and one-year Treasury bills on August 5, the Central Bank of Nigeria has said.

In the same vein, the Debt Management Office has said that the Federal Government would borrow between N180bn and N240bn through the sale of government bonds in the third quarter.

http://www.punchng.com/business/money/fg-to-borrow-n195bn-via-treasury-bills/

Export income is not FG budget revenue and continues to plummet despite claims about "plugging leakages".

Ugosample:
From the comments here, i conclude that many Nigerians are gullible people who believe they are smart. Nigeria has been recording trade surpluses almost every quarter since the return of democracy in 1999. What you should be looking for is the balance of payment. That is the main thing.
Damn.

People's grasp of economics is very poor. Even then oil export figures won t all go to the government. The oil partners will take about 40% or so..

Also, the revenue will be shared wit the 3 tiers of government.

To know the true state of thing, gauge it by the exchange rate and the foreign reserves.

4Play:


Mea culpa: I goofed in my initial post by equating export income to total merchandise trade in 2014

That being said, there is nothing to celebrate. You attempt to mislead by equating today's oil price to the average oil price in the 2nd quarter of 2015. In the second quarter of 2015, average OPEC prices was $60 per barrel. http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/40.htm

Bear in mind that this article refers to Naira export income. 2.5 trillion Naira in oil exports equates to $12.7bn at 197 Naira to the dollar. In Q1 2014, we exported 3.23 trillion Naira in oil which equates to $20bn at 160 Naira to the dollar. The point is that there is nothing to celebrate but even bad news is now celebrated.

I didn't see where I stated average when quoting oil price, I simply said as I was typing. On the average oga, oil currently is $51 for 2Q, crude oil was last at $60 price level over 3 months ago.

I still don't understand why you all don't see how bad is a 38.5 percent decline in exports compared with last quarter. That is almost 40 percent and yet this administration was able to record surplus of over 1.4 when last administration recorded 1.9 without exports deficit

porka:


[size=13pt]Ogbeni, do you people have any analytical skills at all?

This is the figure for the entire country. The money goes into the federal account for the entire country. The federal government budget of N4trn is just a subset of the the total figure.

This is part of what the whole country shares. The federal government plus the 36 states and 774 local governments. You would have to add all their budgets together for better understanding.

And the report stated the percentage of shortage compared to the same period last year. Will you just open your eyes and read before you jump into hysteria?

Why is so difficult to comprehend simple things for you guys.

Okonjo-Iweala's assertion was recently corroborated by your dullard god who said all the notions of Nigeria being a rich country are false.

Why are you people so easily deceived with figures. [/size]

Tell them O! The true state of things can easily be gauge through the exchange rate an d the foreign reserves. Both presently are nothing to write home about. The CBN governor is only making a bad situation worse

phyllosilicate:

I could remember how Okonjo Iweala was shouting how Nigeria was broke, how Nigerians should tighten their belt because of the falling price of crude oil and that Nigeria would borrow to be able to finance the 2015 budget. But in just 3 months almost 60% of the Budget has been generate just from petroleum products alone, not including revenues generated internally and other export.
IF THIS MUCH COULD BE GENERATED WITHIN 3 MONTHS WHEN OIL PRICE IS ABOUT $50 PER BARREL, WHERE WAS OUR MONEY GOING TO WHEN IT WAS $110 PER BARREL?

We've been robbed blind!

Truth234:


I didn't see where I stated average when quoting oil price, I simply said as I am typing. On the average oga, oil currently is $51 for 2Q crude oil was last at $60 price level over 3 months ago.

I still don't understand why you all don't see how bad is a 38.5 percent decline in exports compared with last quarter. That is almost 40 percent and yet this administration was able to record surplus of over 1.4 when last administration recorded 1.9 without exports deficit

What relevance is the oil price in August 2015 when discussing a report about oil revenue in the months of April, May and June 2015? In those 3 months, average oil prices were $60 so your contrast of the $105 per barrel price with today's price of $40 was an attempt to mislead because the contrast should be with $60.

What you people don't realise by clutching on to this oil price red herring is that non-oil exports have also declined. It was 224bn Naira in Q2 2015 according to this article. In Q1 2014, it was 735.9bn Naira:

The report stated that the total trade was dominated by crude oil exports which accounted for about N3.23 trillion, representing 81.5 per cent of total exports while the non-crude oil accounted for N735.9 billion or 18.5 per cent of total exports.

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/nigeria-s-foreign-trade-increases-to-n5-51tn-in-first-quarter/186124/

The main reason we remain in surplus is that it is hard to get hold of dollars officially to import goods. The reality is there is an across the board detrerioration in our exports, both oil and non-oil. You can face reality or bury your heads in the sand and keep pretending that something is not seriously wrong with Nigeria.

arsetalks:
Don't you realise that with this submission you are further indicting Gej the jerk? You yourself said there is a 38% due to a decline of the naira. Now assuming naira is 155 to a dollar as was under GEJ ( comparing like for like) will you still have a decline?

The 38% decline in pure profit is eroded by the decline in the naira assume the naira was same as it was under the jerk?

Bro, you seem not to have a basic grip of elementary mathematics. Now, let me simplify it further do you'll understand.

If GEJ earned $1,500,000 from crude oil sales in 2nd quarter of 2014, at an exchange rate of N155/$, naira earnings would be 1,500,000 × 155 = 232,500,000

If Buhari earned $1,500,000 in 2nd quarter of 2015 at an exchange rate of N197/$, he would have earned 1,500,000 × 197 = 295,500,000

For there to have been a 38.5% decline (in naira) in the earning compared to 1st quarter 2014 (using our example here), it means Buhari earned

232,500,000 - (232,500,000 x 38.5/100)
= 232,500,000 - 89,512,500 = N142,987,500

Now, considering that the primary earning is in $, converting the amount earned by Buhari to dollars will go thus,

142,987,500 ÷ 197 = $725,825.

So, in dollar terms, it means that for every $1,500,000 GEJ earned in 2nd quarter 2014, Buhari earned $725,825 in 2nd quarter 2015, a decline in dollar teems of more than 50%.

Arsetalks, what then is your point?

Even Beremx and the resident nairaland dullard pentiumpro would do better

donbobes, tsdarkside, Justbright, Truth234

arsetalks:
I read your one sided analysis and can't be laugh. Now let me ask you some questions, if there is -38% ( a negative) pure profit accrued the country in the period under review, and like you rightly posited, it is due to a decline in naira. What then is responsible for a decline int the naira?

Especially considering the fact that the value of naira refused to appreciate when the value of crude was circa $150.

How come the foreign reserve was declining instead of appreciating when the value of crude was high and it even depreciated further now that the value of crude has declined by close to 60%?

This topic is not about the questions you raised above, however, do you go putting away money in a bank while you have projects to finance?

phyllosilicate:

I could remember how Okonjo Iweala was shouting how Nigeria was broke, how Nigerians should tighten their belt because of the falling price of crude oil and that Nigeria would borrow to be able to finance the 2015 budget. But in just 3 months almost 60% of the Budget has been generate just from petroleum products alone, not including revenues generated internally and other export.
IF THIS MUCH COULD BE GENERATED WITHIN 3 MONTHS WHEN OIL PRICE IS ABOUT $50 PER BARREL, WHERE WAS OUR MONEY GOING TO WHEN IT WAS $110 PER BARREL?

She will make an unassailable rejoinder like she did about a so called 600m dollars rail fund. BTW, you have asked a valid question here

God bless Buhari nd God bless Nigeria. even our Siwes Allowance has been paid yesterday which has never happened before, it is usually paid after 3 yrs, but now a yr nd some month. may God grant jhim a long life to enable him complete his work.

Truth234:


Do you realised that 38.5% is the difference between exports of last quarter and this quarter? This is actually in favour of this administration, there was a reduction of 38.5 % in quantities export and yet this administration was able to generate 4.3 trillion with a surplus of over 1.4 trillion.

When you take into account how much was sold the same quarter last year and this year that there was a decline of 38.5 percent in exports because last administration does not have any trade agreement with any of our trading partners, which means they can back-out of any trade when they like. You won't understand now until Iran's oil hits global market.

The issue of currency devaluation does not even hold here at all, because an economist knows that devaluation does not equal export volume or was the currency devalued in 2013 of the same quarter when oil price was $112 a barrel?

38.5% is the difference between export earnings of the 2nd quarter of 2014 and 2nd quarter of 2015.

From the article;

Yhunoos:
The value of total merchandise trade, according to the NBS, was 0.5 per cent less than the total of ₦4.393 trillion recorded in the first quarter of 2014 and 34.3 per cent or N2.287 trillion less than the amount recorded in the second quarter of 2014.

In addition, the report stated that at N2.879 trillion, Nigeria’s total export appreciated by 8.0 per cent or N214.1 billion when compared with the value of exports in the first quarter of 2015, while it represented a decline of N1.8 trillion or 38.5 per cent when compared with total exports of N4.682 trillion recorded in the second quarter of 2014.

phyllosilicate:

I could remember how Okonjo Iweala was shouting how Nigeria was broke, how Nigerians should tighten their belt because of the falling price of crude oil and that Nigeria would borrow to be able to finance the 2015 budget. But in just 3 months almost 60% of the Budget has been generate just from petroleum products alone, not including revenues generated internally and other export.
IF THIS MUCH COULD BE GENERATED WITHIN 3 MONTHS WHEN OIL PRICE IS ABOUT $50 PER BARREL, WHERE WAS OUR MONEY GOING TO WHEN IT WAS $110 PER BARREL?

if I do not see okonjo behind bars I will be disappointed in Buhari.

Why would they diversify the economy, when Niger Delta black gold is providing awoof money for sharing ? That money that urchins are clapping can not even build a decent world class 100 kilometer road with underground ravine, paved sidewalk and texting lane.

This much in just 3 months when oil price is LESS than a 100 dollars/barrel?