mykl01:



Please, say it slowly. Some of these people have difficulties reading and comprehending.

I) Increase in Nigeria’s Foreign Reserves: Jonathan met $47.7bn in our foreign reserve in 2009 and despite that crude sold for upward of $100 per barrel for a good period of his tenure, our reserves witnessed depletion and the man left it at $29.1bn in May 2015. What they did with the money remains a mystery.

Despite that crude price has continued to decline during PMB’s tenure, our foreign reserve is witnessing steady growth due largely to blocking of loopholes by the current administration and stood at almost $32bn as at July 7th, 2015. This is an impressive addition of about $3bn in less than two months! Hear Emefiele the CBN Governor on the foreign reserves: “I must use this opportunity to commend the efforts of President Muhammadu Buhari for his dogged approach in seeing that all loopholes are blocked." http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/emefiele-nigeria-s-external-reserves-now-31-89-billion/214192/

II) Increase in allocations to states due to more prudent management of resources: It is somewhat surprising that there has been increase in cash to states from the federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) despite reduction in Nigeria’s gross earnings.

According to Business Day newspaper, “the unexplained rise at a time of a continued fall in international crude oil prices left many analysts wondering but investigation by BusinessDay has showed that the transparent reporting method imposed by the two-month old Buhari administration meant that revenues that were hitherto unaccounted for, had to be brought into the collective pool for sharing. The total disbursable fund for June amounted to N539bn or $2.71bn, up by 32 per cent from the level for May. http://businessdayonline.com/2015/08/cash-going-to-states-from-faac-rising-on-fear-of-buhari/#.Vck2F4Eo7qA In July, N511bn was shared by the various govts. Compare these two figures to the N388bn and N409bn that was available for sharing in April and May 2015.

There is no doubt that as time goes on, prudent management of our resources will translate to having more money available to prosecute more projects for the government.

Another action that blocks leakage is the cancellation of Offshore Processing Agreement and SWAP contracts that was used to shortchange NNPC and FG. http://dailytimes.com.ng/buhari-terminates-oil-swap-agreements/

MizMyColi:
Good Morning Kaboninc Whynotthetruth
Please what are your thoughts on this?

I) Increase in Nigeria’s Foreign Reserves: Jonathan met $47.7bn in our foreign reserve in 2009 and despite that crude sold for upward of $100 per barrel for a good period of his tenure, our reserves witnessed depletion and the man left it at $29.1bn in May 2015. What they did with the money remains a mystery.

Despite that crude price has continued to decline during PMB’s tenure, our foreign reserve is witnessing steady growth due largely to blocking of loopholes by the current administration and stood at almost $32bn as at July 7th, 2015. This is an impressive addition of about $3bn in less than two months! Hear Emefiele the CBN Governor on the foreign reserves: “I must use this opportunity to commend the efforts of President Muhammadu Buhari for his dogged approach in seeing that all loopholes are blocked." http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/emefiele-nigeria-s-external-reserves-now-31-89-billion/214192/

kaboninc:


Booking my space......

MizMyColi:
Good Morning Kaboninc Whynotthetruth
Please what are your thoughts on this?

II) Increase in allocations to states due to more prudent management of resources: It is somewhat surprising that there has been increase in cash to states from the federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) despite reduction in Nigeria’s gross earnings.

According to Business Day newspaper, “the unexplained rise at a time of a continued fall in international crude oil prices left many analysts wondering but investigation by BusinessDay has showed that the transparent reporting method imposed by the two-month old Buhari administration meant that revenues that were hitherto unaccounted for, had to be brought into the collective pool for sharing. The total disbursable fund for June amounted to N539bn or $2.71bn, up by 32 per cent from the level for May. http://businessdayonline.com/2015/08/cash-going-to-states-from-faac-rising-on-fear-of-buhari/#.Vck2F4Eo7qA In July, N511bn was shared by the various govts. Compare these two figures to the N388bn and N409bn that was available for sharing in April and May 2015.

There is no doubt that as time goes on, prudent management of our resources will translate to having more money available to prosecute more projects for the government.

Another action that blocks leakage is the cancellation of Offshore Processing Agreement and SWAP contracts that was used to shortchange NNPC and FG. http://dailytimes.com.ng/buhari-terminates-oil-swap-agreements/

MizMyColi:

Yes Jonathan met about 47.7billion in foreign reserves and left 29.7 or so, ‎ especially despite the fact that oil sols at its peak, why?
Could he have saved more? Yes.
Why didn't he save then?
That would be because aside subsidy...he had more recurrent expenditure than his predecessors.
OBJ stole so much and still saved as much as 47.7b because his wage bill was low.


In retrospect, Jonathan it was who started paying NYSC 19800 from 9800, kindly calculate the percentage increase and difference.
Jonathan paid workers 18000 minimum wage as against 7500 paid by Obj and co
The implication is that he couldn't have saved more because he had more expenses.
We're not yet taking into introspect the impact of foreign debts, among others.

Buhari doesn't have his cabinet yet, so it is expected that he should have more expendable income since he's paying nobody.
He has no projects too yet. From what I learned, most of the ongoing projects like airport remodelling which will be completed by 2016 is already paid for by Jonathan with his loan from China, including the 2nd Niger bridge etc.

PShot, blocking loopholes is a political statement with no substantial proof.

Let's look at the analogue monetary policy of CBN Emefiele and co stopped selling dollars to about 41 category of importers thereby pushing up our foreign reserves increasingly but stifling and suffocating our SMEs.
Now, please remember that SMEs is the engine room of any economy anywhere and employment provider.
Instead of devaluing the naira, as even Segun Agbaje of GTBank advised, they chose to stifle SME's with such policy.

I don't even want to remember the N1.6trn that was lost on stock trading grounds.

The minimum wage increase alone must have guzzled all the money gotten from oil peak price.

Why did states have more money to share compared to the previous two months of Jona's stay in office?
It is on record that states shared more money in other months than the 500billion plus being bandied about, so why compare to only the last two months of EbeleJ's administration?

Would you please be kind enough to show me figures of other months under Jonathan...

You say Buhari is blocking leakages, which areas and what methodology is being used?
Buhari is cleaning up mess, which MDAs and what methodology is being used‎?

For me, the CBN governor is simply playing politics by such statement as he made..."due to leakage blocking that foreign reserve increased"...he was simply playing and dancing to the tune of the current administration. Who doesn't like fitting in?

This is the reality on ground...
SMEs are dying hence retrenching workers and not creating new jobs, NBS new job creation statistics dropped badly, unemployment rating grew...
NBS statistics for same period as now last year was around 6.78% but today it is 2.34% in terms of new job creation.

I have attached a Buhari 100 day score card by Business day to buttress some of the points discussed above.
Infact, that diesel that they wrote 108 PL is a pure farce!
I was at the filling station today to fill my tank. It sold for 168 at an Oando flagship station, as in Original Oando filling station. In all fairness PMS was 87 naira.

PassingShot, please see his submissions from here...

This is the reality on ground...
SMEs are dying hence retrenching workers and not creating new jobs, NBS new job creation statistics dropped badly, unemployment rating grew...
NBS statistics for same period as now last year was around 6.78% but today it is 2.34% in terms of new job creation

The stats you refer to represent the first six months of 2015 (Jan to June) and Jona was in charge of five of those months. Impossible for any sincere person to put that blame on PMB. When results for 3rd quarters are released, they will be squarely on PMB's head

I bet you don't understand what is actually meant by "money lost" at stock trading. If you do, you'd understand that stock trading is basically operated on speculations. Gains and loss is a regular occurrence on per second basis. It has no relevance in this discussion.

kaboninc:




The bolded is not true and should not be encouraged. I have taken my time to put up a comprehensive response and it is open to scrutiny and debate.

An organization can generate income/revenue and can expend resources either to offset obligations, acquire another resource for future economic benefit or pay for expenses incurred in running the business.

Foreign Reserve is composed of two major components - the CBN's Foreign Exchange reserve and the Excess Crude Fund (which belongs solely to the Nigerian Federation). I’ll take on the Excess Crude Savings and then later, CBN's Foreign Exchange Reserve later.

On the excess crude savings fund....

In the case of Nigeria, the proper question to ask should be how much was earned/generated and how much was expended. If expended, how much was expended such that some monies may not be saved. What were the circumstances surrounding such expenditures. Also, we have 3 arms of government - Local, State and Federal Governments. What were the savings profile in each of the arms? Were they able to save or expend?

We should not forget that the governors, in the former administration, led by Rotimi Amaechi, were very vocal in their demand for the withdrawal of funds from the excess crude savings account. So how do you expect monies withdrawn to be saved? That's impossible. More so, a large chunk of this fund was used to pay for fuel subsidy for which the opposition politicized so much that today they are complaining of lack of funds. We need to ask for the expenditure profile of the partial subsidy on a government by government basis. We all know what the Government at the federal level did with their portion – construction of roads, building of schools, agriculture and primary health care across the states of the federation and the FCT. What did the States do with theirs?

Of note is the fact that we must commend GEJ for the foresight in diversifying our economy such that macroeconomic indices – inflation, interest rates - were stable during the 2009 and 2014 economic crises as our import bill was significantly reduced. We all are witnesses to the reduction in rice importation even when we had a challenging period of mass flooding that affected many farm lands across various states and the security situation in the North East. We should not forget in a hurry, the cleansing of the oil industry such that legitimate requests for PMS import, having passed through strict and rigorous screening were granted. We should not forget in a hurry the local support for our automotive industry. We should also never forget that ALL these were done at the FEDERAL LEVEL!

All these significantly helped in reducing our overall import bill and improving our economy. Thus, it can be said that GEJ, even with the pressure to withdraw and expend funds from the excess savings prudently utilized his portion for the good of ALL.

On the CBN's foreign exchange reserve......

In June last year, the world witnessed again another drop in the prices of crude oil as a result of shale exploration and production in the US and reduced growth rate (weakening consumption) from China. These acts were not under the control of Nigeria and as such affected us negatively, reducing our earnings by more than 50%. The corresponding consequences was the need to devalue our currency as the naira faced a strong competition against the dollar - besides we are more of an import dependent economy – and not control of international crude oil prices (I hope this rings a bell)

In tackling the situation, the CBN initiated a series of measures to protect the naira. These measures were to protect against currency speculation, round tripping, terrorism financing and funding of irrelevant imports. The first was using the Foreign Exchange reserve to protect the naira. While that was on, the CBN stopped the issuance of FX to BDCs through the bank as the BDCs which were suppose to be an insignificant segment in the FX industry became a force to reckon with as they were even operating like the Authorized Dealers (banks).

Secondly, the CBN instructed banks to adhere to FX issuance guidelines which requires funds sourced via the CBN be used for the purpose for which it was applied and any excess or unutilized fund must be refunded to the bank within a specific period (72 hours) else a very stiff sanction will be slammed on the defaulting bank. All these helped to take off unnecessary demands and admit genuine demands for legitimate business.

Thirdly, the CBN stopped some banks from allowing their customers with domiciliary accounts to transfer USD to other countries especially accounts funded using CBN's issued FX.

Then the devaluation came in as the bank stopped the WDAS and RDAS windows, placing the rate at the interbank rate. This was where the exchange differential brouhaha came in with the oil marketers. All these happened in GEJ's administration and they all laid the foundation for an increase in the Foreign Reserve.

Later in July, the CBN weld the hammer by banning access to certain items as they felt, that these items were items that could be produced locally, saving us substantial FX, stimulating local growth and development. Then in August, dollar deposits into domiciliary accounts were suspended until further notice. We need to understand that the actions that led to the depletion of CBN's FX reserves were external factors that they are beyond the control of the Nigerian State.

Politicizing issues like this takes us backwards and should not be encouraged. We must always give honor to whom it is due at ALL TIMES. This administration is yet to walk and we should not give it legs but rather allow it to grow its legs.

The second part will come shortly.....

kaboninc:
MizMyColi, I even forgot the wage increas]e across board, in the NYSC. Most of these governors did not tell us that one major reason for their reduced allocation was as a result of poor planing and short sightedness when they were planing to borrow forgetting that creditors do not smile.


Am tired of these lies and spin treatment dished out to Nigerians by half baked 'intellectuals' whose interest is scoring cheap political points. Then some lazy student will come pick these lies and present as fact.

How can one with proper functioning senses credit these things to an administration that is yet to grow legs? If na joke make una stop am.

kaboninc:
Passingshot, there are informed folks on this thread so u suggest you keep that in mind.

When MizMyColi said:

.

This was your reply:


Really?

And the other you wrote a funny article giving Buhari full credit for the stability in electricity and revamping of the refineries? You guys are not to be taken with a nano molecule of salt.

Another funny comment:

PassingShot:

Lol @ not true. How can it be true since it doesn't support your line of thought? With this statement alone, you've rendered everything else you're saying useless.

Even though our discussion has nothing to do with ECA, you cannot justify its depletion. The concern of Nigerians is not what was duly shared by the states and the FG. It is what was taken (stolen) from it without joint agreement by the owners. NOI has equally owned up to taking the alleged money from the ECA on the orders of GEJ. And you must know that it was illegal since the states who are joint owners were not aware.

Very irrelevant to the issue you were meant to comment on. GEJ's paper economic achievement can be discussed another time. I will oblige you if you do a thread on it and alert me.

1. Do you agree we should have increased our FR to between $80bn and $90bn when we sold crude at an average of $100 per barrel if not for irresponsible wasting of the earnings?

2. What are the world class projects done with the unprecedented earnings then? Please don't tell me about airport remodelling and the railway project. You must know I have the answers for those.

3. Why were other countries whose economy are dependent solely on oil as us not having problems with defending their currency? Take a look at UAE, KSA, Qatar and others and you'd realize that our currecy would not have been devalued if we had done the right thing earlier. In those countries I mentioned, their exchange rate have remained unchanged for more than eight years despite acute drop in crude price. Do the research.

Any Economics student/graduate worth his/her salt will not even argue about the economic disaster supervised by GEJ and his cohorts. I understand what sentiments can make one do though. GEJ's economic achievements were 90% paper achievements.

Good night.

PassingShot:

Informed folks who couldn't even argue with facts but their own conjectures!

Informed folk who clearly said a report of findings by Business Day is a lie and should not be believed?

Informed folks indeed!

And is stock market not largely based on speculations?

PassingShot:
Feel free to drop your comments if any. I will respond to them tomorrow.

MizMyColi:

‎
Foreign reserves is composed of ECA...Excess Crude Account and CBN foreign reserves earnings, PassingShot‎. Why are you trying to water down my effort, and dismissing it, when even you know that valid points were raised, why? To be seen as right and always logical and I as wrong and always sentimental?
‎
Why are you asking me to give you names? Why not go to the ‎NBS and enquire why unemployment grew and new job creation died down...or will you also play oblivious to the fact that SMEs are the largest employers of labour? Since you claim that GMB has achieved in 3 months what Jona couldn't in 5.5 years, isn't there also the possibility that Buhari's slow pace in one month could have downwed the employment rate to that level?‎
‎
Did you not read of Peter Obi's plea to the CBN to readjust that policy for the sake of SMEs in Nnewi?
‎
A little digging and I find out that to access these foreign currencies, SME need Form M, knowing the charges involved which is almost like sacrificing for your profit to banks (monkey dey work baboon dey chop) tell me which real SME that would like to do so? If you were in their shoes, would you?‎
Apart from big firms...ALL SME's in Nigeria run away from Form M because it is not SME friendly in terms of cost.

I also learnt that most Chinese who trade in Nigeria refuse to use form M, instead they do DOM transfers after sales to import more maximising profit and minimizing cost to remain in business.‎
Even the uneducated Igbo boy in Alaba, or ladipo or Tradefair complex will teach you this basic economics‎
‎
NSE loss is thanks to lack of economic policy and direction under buhari hence investors are moving their funds to countries with serious leadership.‎
‎
Like I posited earlier, oil benchmark determines what goes to ECA which is an integral component of foreign reserve.‎
Minimum wage forces government to share accruals in ECA to augment what's in federation account.‎
‎
Are you perhaps insinuating that Buhari is a magician? What's the crude oil price for those months vis a vis quantity sold and exchange rate
Is crude sales constant over a period say like a month?
Isn't amount saved a function of quantity sold?‎
So why point on empty political statement of business day?
‎
Even kaboninc did teach you some little economics above or was he too complex?
‎
‎
Whatever Jonathan gained in 1st quarter, PMB is messing up now, because nature abhors vacuum.
Our economy doesn't need a break, Buhari is gallivanting around.
Macroeconomic policies indices like inflation are still hanging low thanks to the diversification of. our economy by Jonathan Rice import reduced with improved food sufficiency which forced down our food import cost, hence allowing our economy and foreign reserve some fresh air
‎
There is over 2.7 trillion loss in NSE is thanks to buhari's ineptitude, and please don't tell me it's not part of the topic, if we must discuss Buhari's success, we might as well discuss his failures.

Stop concoting half truths Pshot to massage the ego of Buhari and APC follower, it is doing our nation more harm than good.‎
‎
Economics isn't about muscle or writing epistles, rather it deals with realities and verifiable truths, not a function of any body language, but constructive reasoning, planning and implementation.

In my opinion, I think you should take those economics and capital market classes. Learning never stops.‎

‎
How can you say Jonathan had paper economics‎
achievements when;
‎
1)Our economy experienced serious diversification which forced our food import cost down.
‎
2)How come our rice import cost reduced drastically?‎
‎
3)How come inflation never reached double digit even when other oil economy countries like Russia, Venezuela experienced such during this world oil price fall?
‎
4)How come companies that left the shores of Nigeria rushed back to Nigeria after 20years and more? E.g Volkswagen.
‎
5)How come we had the first indigenous oil company named Seplat listed on stock exchange under him thanks to his local content policy?
‎
6)How come we had the first indigenous auto industry named Innoson under Jonathan thanks to auto policy?
‎
7)How come numerous youth entrepreneurs emerged thanks to Youwin?
‎
Ever read about the skill acquisition program in NYSC?.
‎
9)Have you ever read how the backward integration of Obj which became fully implemented under Jonathan pushed Nigeria into exporter of cement?
‎
10)Ever cared to see how WCO copied and is copying us thanks to reforms in customs? Even international organizations are under-studying our agricultural revolutionary plans under Jonathan.
‎
It is only hatred or bigotry that will force someone to deny these obvious and conspicuous economic achievements under Jonathan, yet‎ you say they were paper achievements. Smh
‎
Why are you excluding railway and airport remodelling? Aren't they federal government of Jonathan projects? Notwithstanding that airport remodelling was done with China bank loan fully paid and have 2016 completion date.‎
‎
‎
What's the percentage difference between wage bills under Obj or previous governments and Jonathan's? Isn't it more than 150% increase by Jonathan?.
‎
How come roads like Apapa/Oshodi, Benin/Ore, Lagos/Ibadan, East/West road, Abuja/Lokoja road, Daura road, federal universities, tertiary or university intervention funds etc all saw life and breathe of fresh air under Jonathan
‎
Was almajiri education and feeding done with your urine or cash from such oil sales?
‎
Do you want me to go on with more achievements thanks to such funds from oil?
‎
Are you aware by what percentage countries like Russia, Venezuela etc who face similar challenges as us devalued their currency?
‎
Aren't you confusing yourself by saying somewhere that PDP wasted 16years and then come here eulogize drivers of such 16years like soludo?
‎
You, my dear, need to ask someone who's grounded in elementary economics to teach you ALL the indices of economic growth & development and then you compare Nigeria in 1999-2015 to previous years, using such indices.
‎
Maybe then you will know that we actually grew for the better not worse.
‎
Prof soludo calculated his estimated cost of crude stolen under Jonathan through oil theft and vandalism, BUT failed to give us amount stolen under Obj government that he served, and I await to see if he or Emefiele calculates the amount/estimate stolen under buhari too.
‎

PassingShot:

My advice to you and your co-travelers: Take my article and tear it into shreds point by point. I mean, counter the points and arguments therein with your own facts with sources for those facts as I presented.

I won't reply to conjectures and beer parlour economics from you guys.

MizMyColi:

Okay.

PassingShot:

My advice to you and your co-travelers: Take my article and tear it into shreds point by point. I mean, counter the points and arguments therein with your own facts with sources for those facts as I presented.

I won't reply to conjectures and beer parlour economics from you guys.

PassingShot:

While at it, pls understand that it is 110% wrong to say ECA is part of our FR. Your economist Kabonic (?) is 200% wrong about it.

PassingShot:

While at it, pls understand that it is 110% wrong to say ECA is part of our FR. Your economist Kabonic (?) is 200% wrong about it.

MizMyColi:


Is it not a spillover from our Foreign reserves?

Please visit this link which details a statement from the federal ministry of finance at the time.
http://www.nta.ng/2015/01/08/the-facts-about-nigerias-excess-crude-account-and-foreign-reserves-position/

kaboninc:


Please allow him to dig up what it means.

It is the height of ignorance that someone like PassingShot, who claims to know so much about our economy, with the available resources in the internet, including his respected Businessday, he still maintains that the Excess Crude is not part of our FOREIGN RESERVE!

MizMyColi:


Is it not a spillover from our Foreign reserves?

Please visit this link which details a statement from the federal ministry of finance at the time.
http://www.nta.ng/2015/01/08/the-facts-about-nigerias-excess-crude-account-and-foreign-reserves-position/

kaboninc:

Please allow him to dig up what it means.
It is the height of ignorance that someone like PassingShot, who claims to know so much about our economy, with the available resources in the internet, including his respected Businessday, he still maintains that the Excess Crude is not part of our FOREIGN RESERVE!

PassingShot:


Most of the gains Nigeria has recorded since 1999 were out of natural occurrence and development. E,g, opening up of communication and technology.

MizMyColi:


My dear....
For a moment there, I thought I didn't see clearly.
So I had to go do some digging.

This thread has forced me to become interested in Governance economics, and that's a good thing.....not minding Pshot's attempt at watering down my efforts.

“He who knows not and knows not he knows not: he is a fool - shun him. He who knows not and knows he knows not: he is simple - teach him. He who knows and knows not he knows: he is asleep - wake him. He who knows and knows he knows: he is wise - follow him.”

rad1cal2:




I stopped taking the arrogant dullard called Passingshot serious when he made this comment below



But everything happpening now ain't by natural occurence but Buhari body odour and integrity.

https://www.nairaland.com/2557783/people-right-buhari/3

MizMyColi:


Is it not a spillover from our Foreign reserves?

Please visit this link which details a statement from the federal ministry of finance at the time.
http://www.nta.ng/2015/01/08/the-facts-about-nigerias-excess-crude-account-and-foreign-reserves-position/

kaboninc:

Please allow him to dig up what it means.
It is the height of ignorance that someone like PassingShot, who claims to know so much about our economy, with the available resources in the internet, including his respected Businessday, he still maintains that the Excess Crude is not part of our FOREIGN RESERVE!

rad1cal2:


I stopped taking the arrogant dullard called Passingshot serious when he made this comment below

But everything happpening now ain't by natural occurence but Buhari body odour and integrity.

https://www.nairaland.com/2557783/people-right-buhari/3