Bevista:
I'll help with some figures of the budget proposals of the FG from 2011, just to provide some perspective:

2011
Budget Proposed - N4.97Trillion
Oil Price Used - $75
Oil Production - 2.3mbbls/day

2012
Budget Proposed - N4.75Trillion
Oil Price Used - $70
Oil Production - 2.48mbbls/day

2013
Budget Proposed - N4.98Trillion
Oil Price Used - $79
Oil Production - 2.53mbbls/day

2014
Budget Proposed - N4.91Trillion
Oil Price Used - $75
Oil Production - 2.39mbbls/day

2015
Budget Proposed - N4.49Trillion
Oil Price Used - $53
Oil Production - 2.28mbbls/day

2016
Budget Proposed - N6.0Trillion
Oil Price Used - $38
Oil Production - 2.2mbbls/day

I am interested in seeing the revenue details from the budget to know exactly how government intends to fund the budget. My first instinct, though, is that leackages in revenue generating agencies (like NCS, NPA, NNPC, etc) have been blocked and all funds channeled into the TSA. That the government has been able to come up with that size of budget - even in the face of declining oil prices & lower oil production levels - without depreciating the official exchange rate of the Naira is truly remarkable.

How GEJ (with benchmark oil price of over $75 throughout his term) was not able to come up with a budget of up to N5T beggars belief. One can now say without equivocation that, had PMB met an oil price of $75, we would be talking about a N10T budget. Kindly note that during GEJ term, oil price was actually higher ($105) than the budget benchmark and yet our Foreign Reserves and ECA was declining.

This is an incredible way to make a comparative analysis. Have you stopped to ask yourself if the surplus in the previous era was used for savings like the SWF, or for future appropriations due to later discovered and unbudgeted needs as is common the world over?. This current projections literally means the entire revenue would be spent, with scant possibilities for surpluses and savings. Also if reflating the economy is the target, rising dollar value and galloping cost of goods and services means quantum inflation may be the end product.

It would appear to me as if budgeting may not infact be the bane of our growth but implementation. I actually think the previous administration's budget is more growth oriented than this which is reactive and a total submission that things have gone out of control, much like "Spend all you have got and worry about the coffers later as long as you have mint roads and some fancy buildings to show you are working". Finally you will find that a huge chunk of this budget is targeted at existing and budgeted public borrowing interest servicing. This isn't at all smart in my opinion

sammhi:


ode...so you have never heard of excess crude acccount ? go check how much was shared to each state from that account...so with what were they paid increased minimum wage ? and SWF
Was naija dry like this in GEJ period? please leave sentiments and face facts

Naija would have shut down by now under GEJ, brent oil price now at 38dollars /barrel, GEJ period had oil boom of over 100 usd on the average, though budget benchmark was at avg of 75usd, meaning the extra 25usd + over budget benchmark was saved in to excess crude account. Many do not realise the enormity of the current situation in a Nigeria that was virtually anchored on oil price. I daily praise God, majority of Nigerian voters did not make the mistake of bringing GEJ back.

4Play:
Looks like Nigerian fiscal policy is going to go the Osun way, i.e., debt fuelled spending. I say this because fiscal revenue remains disappointing 6 months into the new regime. If revenues next year would be high enough to meet such spending, it should be happening already.

I doubt.

I think no one should expect anything tangible from 6 months of cleaning up a cretin's 5 year mess.

Nigerian government makes money from 6 streams:

1) Oil revenue
2) VAT
3) Company Income Tax
4) Customs and Excise
5) Sale of Assets/Equity/Licences
6) Return on Equity/investments

By and large, the oil revenue forms the largest bulk of these streams. Considering the budget planning from this was pegged at a realistic, if not conservative, level of $38 per barrel, I can hardly see any error in this.

NNPC is also being cleaned up. No more selling of Nigerian assets for peanuts, oil bunking and the non-remittance of billions of oil revenue to the federal account with impunity, while the Cretin of Otuoke was shacking Orijin in Aso Rock.

(3) is likely to increase after we now have ministers. Policies would be revealed and investors would know it is a clean party they are being invited to, not the "goat must eat yam" party rot the Cretin of Otuoke was running. We are likely to see new FDI and an increase in existing FDI.

(4) was another avenue of leakages that is going to drastically improve. PMB was already cleaning that sector with the mass sack of the crooks running it. Now we will no longer have Customs men pocketing import duties and turning into Abubakar Atiku.

Mate, Nigeria had a previous budget of about $28bn. Of which (conservatively) at least 40% was being looted. Only a NSA on his own was stealing $2bn because they knew it was a Mumu that was running the country. Don't let us talk about what PDP officials were looting. I know of a PDP Chairman that was filling a private jet with millions of dollars during elections.

Despite these lootings, Nigeria was functioning without much debt. Even if PMB reduces these looting to just 10%, we will be able to manage.

Also don't forget some of these criminals, pendusky loves to worship, would be returning their loot before going to jail. That would be going into the pot too.

Wailers, food is ready.

I am compelled to respond to Dr Ngozi mail that "we need not to go the west for help as victim". A simple answer is that Nigerians are victims of their corrupt practices. Despite the high price of crude during the last administration, they practical do not have anything to be proud of except the current revelation of arm scam and contract racketeering.

God bless nigeria.

Bevista:
I'll help with some figures of the budget proposals of the FG from 2011, just to provide some perspective:

2011
Budget Proposed - N4.97Trillion
Oil Price Used - $75
Oil Production - 2.3mbbls/day

2012
Budget Proposed - N4.75Trillion
Oil Price Used - $70
Oil Production - 2.48mbbls/day

2013
Budget Proposed - N4.98Trillion
Oil Price Used - $79
Oil Production - 2.53mbbls/day

2014
Budget Proposed - N4.91Trillion
Oil Price Used - $75
Oil Production - 2.39mbbls/day

2015
Budget Proposed - N4.49Trillion
Oil Price Used - $53
Oil Production - 2.28mbbls/day

2016
Budget Proposed - N6.0Trillion
Oil Price Used - $38
Oil Production - 2.2mbbls/day

I am interested in seeing the revenue details from the budget to know exactly how government intends to fund the budget. My first instinct, though, is that leackages in revenue generating agencies (like NCS, NPA, NNPC, etc) have been blocked and all funds channeled into the TSA. That the government has been able to come up with that size of budget - even in the face of declining oil prices & lower oil production levels - without depreciating the official exchange rate of the Naira - is truly remarkable.

How GEJ (with benchmark oil price of over $75 throughout his term) was not able to come up with a budget of up to N5T beggars belief. One can now say without equivocation that, had PMB met an oil price of $75, we would be talking about a N10T budget. Kindly note that during GEJ term, oil price was actually higher ($105) than the budget benchmark and yet our Foreign Reserves and ECA was declining.

good analysis ... + under. obj Nigeria's debt was drastically reduced , under Gej. we suddenly became heavily indebeted(locally n internationally ). again. Gej really transforms naija shaaaaaa

deking:
@ $38 per barrel and 2.2million b/d considering 260 days the Govts daily earnings from oil will be

$38 X 2.2M X 260 =$21736 Million

@ N196 = $1

This gives $21736 Million X 196 = N4260256 million i.e N4.260256T

With this figures and considering the other loopholes that have been blocked this is more than a possible feat.

The government doesn't have to borrow if the price of petrol continues to hover around the 43$ benchmark.

Your calculation is wrong. You didn't put into account the cost of producing the 2.2Million barrel a day, the International oil companies profit in Join venture and shares in Production sharing.

Out of the 2.2million barrels, the actual amount that comes to Nigeria government as revenue is about 1.4Million barrels a day.
out of this about 1.4Million barrels, only about 52% of that comes to Federal government. the remaining 48% goes to states government.

so repeat your calculation with 0.8Million barrels( 800,000 barrels per day).

gebest:
38 dollars what?? O my God Nigeria is finished, so apart from oil nothing to fall back on. PDP! PDP!! PDP!!! U see what u ve caused.

See mentality. Tell me, "what happened to other people that had ruled this country in one capacity or the other at one point in time, what positive impact did any of them have in this country?

Why are youths of today so senseless, myopic and sentimental? With this kind of attitude, we will never move forward in this country.

Does it mean its only PDP that had governed this country? ost of the people in APC now who were once part of the PDP, can you tell me their positive input then?

tbaba1234:


Devalue the currency and borrow...

That is the most likely way.

These guys are too scared to even consider devaluation - maybe for the political repercussions. They don't want to hear of it. I'm watching them twist and turn. They think they can do magic.

dancewith:
This is an incredible way to make a comparative analysis. Have you stopped to ask yourself if the surplus in the previous era was used for savings like the SWF, or for future appropriations due to later discovered and unbudgeted needs as is common the world over?. This current projections literally means the entire revenue would be spent, with scant possibilities for surpluses and savings. Also if reflating the economy is the target, rising dollar value and galloping cost of goods and services means quantum inflation may be the end product.

It would appear to me as if budgeting may not infact be the bane of our growth but implementation. I actually think the previous administration's budget is more growth oriented than this which is reactive and a total submission that things have gone out of control, much like "Spend all you have got and worry about the coffers later as long as you have mint roads and some fancy buildings to show you are working". Finally you will find that a huge chunk of this budget is targeted at existing and budgeted public borrowing interest servicing. This isn't at all smart in my opinion

I am not yet privy to the details of the budget, as such I cannot make definitive comments about it. In anycase I do not hold brief for the Federal Government. I was only making an independent review.

There is absolutely no evidence that savings was made during the last administration. Infact, it was so bad that they had to borrow to pay salaries at the twilight of the administration. In terms of SWF, there were legal battles with State Governors who did not support making deduction to the Fund before FAAC. They had opined that the FG should go ahead to save its own share while they would also save their own share as they deem it fit. Ofcourse, the rest is history.

The only other avenue to have saved the surplus would have been the Excess Crude Account, but we all know that by the time the last administration ended, ECA was reduced to around $2b, from a figure of over $10b inherited. The import of this is that we did not save a dime during the last 5 years - worse still, we depleted the little our predecessors saved.

SeverusSnape:
I thought the set of confused people said it gonna be 8 trillion

Why dont u just quote where they said 8trillion instead of thinking?

Go for a brain test cos it's hard for you to comprehend.

ayemerbarth:
How come it's exactly 6 trillion? Maybe the billions and millions on top means nothing to them. This budget is inconclusive on arrival. Common sense would ve been when benchmark was 75 dollar per barrel, budget was 4.75trillion. When it's now 38, budget would have been divided by 2 to give 2.37 trillion approximately. Only in this govt we see dwindling oil prices and high budget figures at the same time. Wonders ll never seize in Naija.

chinchum:
i will recommend 30 dollars /barrel as budget benchmark, instead of 38 dollars per barrel. As at today, oil is now under 40 dollars /barrel, it has achieved a 11 year low(since 2004), and i see it going towards 25 dollars/barrel, iran will be pumping more fuel in to the oil export market in 2016. Nigeria must look beyond oil to a great extent in 2016.

The actual glut was caused by non-OPEC drilling, particularly by the US. This non-OPEC production is set to go down by 2016. The only problem i foresee is the cut in carbon emissions, which means faster adoption of renewable energy.

However, if we immediately enhance agriculture and non-oil extractions, we may just pull through by 2018.

4Play:
Looks like Nigerian fiscal policy is going to go the Osun way, i.e., debt fuelled spending. I say this because fiscal revenue remains disappointing 6 months into the new regime. If revenues next year would be high enough to meet such spending, it should be happening already.

The crash of oil is never any regime's fault, even Jonathan's. However only about N2t is set to be borrowed, which is still less than our GDP. And as you know, any borrowing less than total GDP is healthy. Even the mighty US borrows crazily from the Chinese.

SeverusSnape:
I thought the set of confused people said it gonna be 8 trillion

At least it's about 1 trillion higher than the highest your patron saint GEJ ever attained, before he promptly turned around and stole 90% of the budget.

And back then oil was like $70

nice improvement from the norms

WaffenSS:


At least it's about 1 trillion higher than the highest your patron saint GEJ ever attained, before he promptly turned around and stole 90% of the budget.

And back then oil was like $70

No. He even stole 100% of the budget.

Please who wants to talk again, over to you wailers!

Bevista:
I'll help with some figures of the budget proposals of the FG from 2011, just to provide some perspective:

2011
Budget Proposed - N4.97Trillion
Oil Price Used - $75
Oil Production - 2.3mbbls/day

2012
Budget Proposed - N4.75Trillion
Oil Price Used - $70
Oil Production - 2.48mbbls/day

2013
Budget Proposed - N4.98Trillion
Oil Price Used - $79
Oil Production - 2.53mbbls/day

2014
Budget Proposed - N4.91Trillion
Oil Price Used - $75
Oil Production - 2.39mbbls/day

2015
Budget Proposed - N4.49Trillion
Oil Price Used - $53
Oil Production - 2.28mbbls/day

2016
Budget Proposed - N6.0Trillion
Oil Price Used - $38
Oil Production - 2.2mbbls/day

I am interested in seeing the revenue details from the budget to know exactly how government intends to fund the budget. My first instinct, though, is that leackages in revenue generating agencies (like NCS, NPA, NNPC, etc) have been blocked and all funds channeled into the TSA. That the government has been able to come up with that size of budget - even in the face of declining oil prices & lower oil production levels - without depreciating the official exchange rate of the Naira - is truly remarkable.

How GEJ (with benchmark oil price of over $75 throughout his term) was not able to come up with a budget of up to N5T beggars belief. One can now say without equivocation that, had PMB met an oil price of $75, we would be talking about a N10T budget. Kindly note that during GEJ term, oil price was actually higher ($105) than the budget benchmark and yet our Foreign Reserves and ECA was declining.

WaffenSS:


At least it's about 1 trillion higher than the highest your patron saint GEJ ever attained, before he promptly turned around and stole 90% of the budget.

And back then oil was like $70

Can you read what you wrote slowly

SeverusSnape:

No. He even stole 100% of the budget.

150%

Because he stole half of next year's before he left.

baralatie:

Can you read what you wrote slowly

Is that how you read? Why, is your brain deficient, Mr Zombie?

WaffenSS:


Is that how you read? Why, is your brain deficient, Mr Zombie?

At last you realise your mistake!
Good

WaffenSS:

150%
Because he stole half of next year's before he left.

Yes yes... And he's gonna steal the one of next year under Buhari.

WaffenSS:


The actual glut was caused by non-OPEC drilling, particularly by the US. This non-OPEC production is set to go down by 2016. The only problem i foresee is the cut in carbon emissions, which means faster adoption of renewable energy.

However, if we immediately enhance agriculture and non-oil extractions, we may just pull through by 2018.

I am not privy to the US cutting down oil production in 2016, but i know the iran nuclear deal agreement will mean iran will also flood the market with oil soon in 2016, and OPEC is not ready to agree to cut quota of member countries, i trade crude oil in the forex market, the analysis on technicals points a further fall in price of crude, the current rate for oil is 36.80, brent oil is only 1-2 usd higher. , it may hit 30usd before the end of december, and even slide further. but who knows. IMO, the 38 usd is not a well placed benchmark.

The Non oil sector is where the govt must be thinking of getting bulk of its revenue, and maybe VAT may be jerked up from 5%, Govt. oil subsidies should be removed too, FIRS generated over 4 thrillion naira in 2014 alone, it can make more than that in 2016, NPA, Customs, NIMASA, immigration, NNPC and the introduction of TSA will up the government revenues if well managed.

baralatie:

At last you realise your mistake!
Good

Quite true.

Note to self: " Never presume sense from the walking dead".

WaffenSS:


Quite true.

Note to self: " Never presume sense from the walking dead".

and again you enter reverse!

chinchum:
I am not privy to the US cutting down oil production in 2016, but i know the iran nuclear deal agreement will mean iran will also flood the market with oil soon in 2016, and OPEC is not ready to agree to cut quota of member countries, i trade crude oil in the forex market, the analysis on technicals points a further fall in price of crude, the current rate for oil is 36.80, brent oil is only 1-2 usd higher. , it may hit 30usd before the end of december, and even slide further. but who knows. IMO, the 38 usd is not a well placed benchmark.

1. ISIS is selling cheap oil to NATO via Turkey. Russia is bombarding their supply lines and hopefully the oil fields. Also, oil is being smuggled from Libya, which is now shaping up to be ISIS's new stronghold especially as they're being squeezed in at Raqqa.

2. Steins Law.

SeverusSnape:

Yes yes... And he's gonna steal the one of next year under Buhari.

Nah.

By next year he's going to be cooling his heels in jail.

baralatie:

and again you enter reverse!

ayemerbarth:
How come it's exactly 6 trillion? Maybe the billions and millions on top means nothing to them. This budget is inconclusive on arrival. Common sense would ve been when benchmark was 75 dollar per barrel, budget was 4.75trillion. When it's now 38, budget would have been divided by 2 to give 2.37 trillion approximately. Only in this govt we see dwindling oil prices and high budget figures at the same time. Wonders ll never seize in Naija.

Ur brain has been programmed 2 believe dat nothing good can come out of Nigerians........wake up cos change has come.

WaffenSS:

Nah.
By next year he's going to be cooling his heels in jail.

Hehehehehehehehehehe Hehehehehehehehehehe
Who's gonna jail him?... You??... The dull'ard??
I laugh in German.