By : Apena Ibrahim Adeboye

This is a personal analysis which is subjected to empirically backed criticism.

As at 7th of December 2015, Naira to dollar stood at ₦250 to $1, which was the highest fall of Naira to Dollar in history (Reference 1). As at today 28th of December, 2015, Naira to dollar stands at ₦197 to $1 (Reference 2), this shows there is an improvement.

All the same, have you ever asked why the value of Naira keeps dropping its value, Have you ever imagine if exchange rate of naira to dollar stands at ₦500 to $1, Did you make research on why use of NAIRA ATM abroad was ban ? (Kindly read reference 4 to know why). All these will help us understand the effect of the Ban of Naira ATM usage outside Nigeria.

It’s no news that some Nigerians in Diaspora are working towards protesting against the ban of Naira ATM abroad, especially those studying. With due respect, it's shameful that some Students who schooled or are schooling outside the country, especially those who offered or are offering business related courses do not understand why the inability to use Naira ATM outside Nigeria will be better off in the long run. Let’s kindly visit Economics as a course before complaining, though I am not an economics expert but I will apply the fair knowledge I have by the grace of God.

Let’s start with a simple analysis, this analysis will focus mainly on those schooling outside Nigeria;

SCENARIO ONE
Schooling Abroad and its effect on Naira. (Nigerians Schooling in Ghana as a case study)
The case study below is used for about 200,000 Nigerians schooling in Ghana, according to statistical fact (Reference 3)
Scenario Effect on Naira & Nigeria economy
1. Average School fees for a student per year ₦400,000_ Naira Out , Nothing In ,
2. Accommodation for about ₦100,000_ Naira Out , Nothing In,
3. Living expense of about ₦300,000 _ Naira Out , Nothing In,
Total expenses incurred by a Foreign trained Nigerian annually _₦800,000 Out, Nothing In.

Cost for 200,000 students per year ₦160,000,000,000 (₦160B)
Total expenses in 4 years ₦640,000,000,000 Out, Nothing In

Note:
Living expenses of 200,000 foreign trained in Ghana alone for a year is about ₦60,000,000,000 (₦60B)

Over 200,000 Nigerian were schooling in Ghana as at 2013.
(Reference 3)
SCENARIO TWO
1. Mr Ade imports phone to sell in Nigeria with about ₦100,000 each.
2. A student who schools in Ghana left this phone to buy the same worth of phone in Ghana.
EFFECT OF SCENARIO TWO
1. ₦100,000 gone out of Nigeria, ₦100,000 worth of Phone Imported (balanced)
2. ₦100,000 worth of phone ignored by student, yet such student took another ₦100,000 out of Nigeria to buy same phone in Ghana without any return to Nigeria. This means Nigeria has lost 100,000 to the Ghana Market despite having such product in Nigeria. Funny enough, if such phone is stolen before such student gets back to Nigeria, it means such student has made Ghana economy ₦100,000 better.

In one semester, an average Nigerian Schooling in Ghana must have spent about 800,000 of Nigerian currency in Ghana. Assuming we have about 200,000 Nigerians schooling in Ghana, it means about ₦160B is spent in Ghana education system within a year without any monetary return for Nigeria. Assuming this 160B is invested in Business , it would have been better because we would get goods in return for such chunk of money going out of the country , bear in mind that there are a lot of Nigerian students scattered around the world, Just imagine how much schooling abroad alone is taking out of Nigerian economy annually, imagine how much money spent on luxurious items , Health and so on in Ghana and other countries, Trillions of Naira. Have you imagined what it would look like if these monies are invested in our educational sector? That by the way.

After schooling abroad, some of the foreign trained do not even think of coming back to create jobs in the country, they rather think of coming back to earn from a white collar job, having used their certificate to bully home trained Nigerian Graduates. Does this really justify the huge amount spent on education outside Nigeria, Though, it’s a fact that knowledge must have been acquired and one can spend as much as possible to acquire knowledge.

As an average Nigerian Schooling outside the country, it’s normal to feel very bad when such news is broken (Ban of Naira ATM abroad). However, it will be a big disgrace to jump up to protest over it without understanding what is being protested about.
The question is simple ,
1. Do we prefer the value of naira to keep falling while we have access to spend naira anyhow outside Nigeria or we reduce the amount of naira going out and maintain a valuable naira.
2. The amount of Nigerians in diaspora are not up to 20% of those in Nigeria, thus , do we suffer those in Nigeria for the happiness of those in Diaspora or those who travel out to flex on vacation.

Imagine you wake up one day to see the exchange rate of naira to dollar standing at 500 Naira to 1 Dollar, Do you think it will be easy for parents to pay fees abroad.

SUGGESTIONS
1. Students schooling or intending to school abroad should rather think of how government can help in providing a means for students to transfer their school fees and money for upkeep. Though, this should be regulated, but not to protest over the Ban of ATM usage Abroad. NANS Excos and other student activist abroad should get to work on how to get alternatives for students to get money abroad. Who knows , students might be allowed to use Naira ATM abroad but lets consider the effect.
2. Most traveling outside Nigeria , especially within African countries should stop the habit of taking naira out to buy what can be bought in Nigeria , eg Phones , Laptop e.t.c
3. This is also the best avenue to challenge the government to work on the educational sector of Nigeria so that Nigerians will stop wasting chunk of money on schooling outside. In Ghana alone, Nigerians spends about 160,000,000,000 on education. The question is ;
a. How many people come to Nigeria to study or spend such money?
b. How many countries appreciate the monies spent by Nigerians in their economy.
Thus, if government won’t allow free usage of Naira ATM for students, then, they should provide alternatives or better our education system by scrapping JAMB and POST JAMB.

RECOMMENDATIONS TO LEARNED COLLEAGUES
Please let's apply what we learnt in school. When we spend more of our currency to import without Export, the value of Naira will keep dropping. So let’s plead to government to rather work on a policy to support fees payment and up keep money for students schooling abroad, also for business men. Also why are we not thinking of business we can do in abroad , afterwards , we send the little money you earn to Nigerian banks.

CONCLUSION
This literally mean , we are giving out without receiving except from petrol which is our major source of income , NB , price of Petrol is also dropping. If you give out without receiving you must reduce in whatever you have. This is one of the reasons why naira is dropping value. Therefore, ban of Naira ATM use outside Nigeria is a good policy. I don’t care who the governor of Central Bank of Nigeria is but I salute him/her for this. At least , this Policy should be maintained till Naira can be equivalent to about ₦100 – $1 dollars. If buhari Claims to take ₦1-$1, Do we think he will just perform Miracles, these are some of the ways to achieve it. Lets think of what to do so that others will come and spend or invest in our economy, However, there should be a way out for those who genuinely need to use the ATM outside Nigeria (Businessmen, students and likes ) Surely Politicians and those who pay visit to other countries Should be totally BANNED from use of Naira ATM abroad, amount taken out of Nigeria should be regulated.

This write up is not in any way to support any political party but for the betterment of Nigeria. Change and betterment will not occur if we won’t pay the price, ABOVE ALL, THIS IS A TEMPORARY MEASURE FOR THE SAKE OF STABILIZING THINGS. It is mainly geared towards those who spend naira on luxurious stuffs abroad.

Thank you for reading, comments to enlighten me are welcomed.

Reference
Referece 1 https://www.thecable.ng/finally-naira-falls-to-dreaded-2501

Reference 2 http://www.cenbank.org/rates/ExchRateByCurrency.asp

Reference 3 http://www.vanguardngr.com/…/nigerian-students-spend-n100b…/

Reference 4 http://thecitizenng.com/…/banks-blame-atm-card-ban-abroad-…/

Refeerence 5 http://ynaija.com/why-we-cant-reverse-ban-on-atm-card-use-…/

Nigerians will soon be restricted on the amount to withdraw maybe, 10k max in a day.

Good analysis.

Cc:
Lalasticlala

well aticulated and valid point. you will still hear some jobless nairaland youth come here to bash this thread. instead of them to think of how to tap from the 6.08tri budget. funny enough this thread is still at the back when it should be a front page material. but if its about uneducated artist its on front page with a phd nairalander guy/girl screaming first to comment. i shake my head for our dullard youths

njikoamaka:
Nigerians will soon be restricted on the amount to withdraw maybe, 10k max in a day.

can you explain like the op did?

After careful reading of the op's points, i can say dats a very good write up..But i think what we are facing now is just the results of profligacy and lack of vision of our past and ever present leaders...Think of billions in cash dats been transported abroad frm our economy, it sickens me weneva i hear of our leaders spending in dollars in our country.. No 1 cares abt our Naira again, all dey flaunt abt is d num of dollars u have @ hand...Hopefully, wth more policies coming on from ds administration, tins will get better because d system has been deeply rotten to be healed overnight.
Lets hope for d best to come...
God bless Nairaland
God bless Nigeria @ large..
#Selah

Modified: The poster above me is just ranting and not passing a single message...An example of niggas who flaunts degrees and downpour all what they read in school wth no sense of communication...Tell us why d policy is faulty and give us an alternative way out, but no, he's shouting abt one degree in marketing..Bullshit!

Abeg Make person summarise am for me !!!

Way forward indeed ...I know some people who make their honest living on this FX stuff.... Like someone said the change is now in coins A.k.a 0.50k

You made really good points which are apt but what you failed to realize is that the CBN powered by the FG is only cutting the branches of the tree rather than cutting the tree from its roots. The question is this, for how long would this plaster and patch service keep on. How long can the FG hold it on. Like it or not, Nigerians would still buy and patronize markets outside Nigeria if what is at home is not comfortable with them. I see no reason why Nigerians would go to Ghana to School. I have not seen any foreigner in a Nigerian school before. except for international schools paying exorbitant fees which most likely are in USD.

Although the policy by the CBN is good in a way and it would greatly affect me too but I see no reason why hands should not be on deck now to repair the parts that are missing. If Nigerian schools are not up to world class standard in every sense of it, then parents would keep on sending their kids abroad and go to Ghana or Cotonou and pay their fees from there. If we keep importing rather than producing and using these items, Nigerians would not mind smuggling the foreign ones which are way better. producers of commodities also need to have a some sort of standard mechanism devoid of corruption and greed and focus on quality and durability. If this is not done, business folks would keep trying to get more standard products outside and the worst part of it would be that the transfer of these monies would be done off the books which would even mean more leakages for the Naira to keep depleting in its value. so in whatever way the CBN is trying to fix this issue would be like fetching water in a basket..

Nonsense

Wow, I just read the writeup. Its very educative. Many things needs to be done aright in this country. In the longer run, it will help us more. I never knew such huge amount of money is spent abroad in just Education. Funny enough, it was only Ghana that was used in your case study. If we then put Malaysia, India, USA & the rest, that amount will skyrocket.
At least, what government should do now is to make provisions for the students who are already in the system schooling abroad.
While new intakes will have to look inwards to our own public universities. Our Government needs to work to standardise them

ok

g

Nigerians should also be ban from schooling or embarking on any kind of trip abroad so as to boast the economy.

Okkk

I don't understand a thing the OP wrote up there.

Hmmmmm....

Hmmmmmm....

The CBN is doing the right thing.....because we have to avoid Zimbabwe's problem.

Either defend the Naira....or end up using other people's currency to buy things in this country.

An alternative for me is that we let the naira get devalued.....and then we can use the dollars we have to spend on major infrastructure projects.....but that would just make things worse.

am not an expert in economics, but from few analysis I have heard as regards the ban on naira ATM, I believe it's in the interest of the NAIRA. Let's be hopeful and see the outcome

Banger bombbbb

Too long , didnt read

Someone should explain to the OP the meaning of the way forward, he never provided a solution for the problem and never thought about some people that read courses that are not offered in Nigeria so what do you want them to do, wait till our government work on our education system.

Oga op u were just blabbing and comparing amount of money spent. No solution in sight to the pending problem cos I school in Ghana most of your points were reasonable tho, and I have no problem with the limit of cash to be spent in a day but there shouldn't be a total ban on the card. That's my 2 cents on the issue.

OP na big Mumu, so nobody should go outside to study again, abi? Because the dollar is nose diving....


This is lame


What happens to those that studied outside the country, got a job outside the country and still sends money to their love ones in Nigeria? We have learned people outside the country that still have a lot of investment in this country... Is that not money coming in?


By stopping ATM and stopping abroad study, do you know the number of knowledge and money that will be lost? I see a future where Indian doctors will take over everything...

hmm

Nice Write Up.... You seem smarter than our President and his Economic Team put together.... I think the CBN Governor needs to honestly enlighten us on the benefits of this ban....

redcliff:
You made really good points which are apt but what you failed to realize is that the CBN powered by the FG is only cutting the branches of the tree rather than cutting the tree from its roots. The question is this, for how long would this plaster and patch service keep on. How long can the FG hold it on. Like it or not, Nigerians would still buy and patronize markets outside Nigeria if what is at home is not comfortable with them. I see no reason why Nigerians would go to Ghana to School. I have not seen any foreigner in a Nigerian school before. except for international schools paying exorbitant fees which most likely are in USD.

Although the policy by the CBN is good in a way and it would greatly affect me too but I see no reason why hands should not be on deck now to repair the parts that are missing. If Nigerian schools are not up to world class standard in every sense of it, then parents would keep on sending their kids abroad and go to Ghana or Cotonou and pay their fees from there. If we keep importing rather than producing and using these items, Nigerians would not mind smuggling the foreign ones which are way better. producers of commodities also need to have a some sort of standard mechanism devoid of corruption and greed and focus on quality and durability. If this is not done, business folks would keep trying to get more standard products outside and the worst part of it would be that the transfer of these monies would be done off the books which would even mean more leakages for the Naira to keep depleting in its value. so in whatever way the CBN is trying to fix this issue would be like fetching water in a basket..

your point is valid.. but if "cutting off the branches" as you said produced this level of criticism imagine wat cutting off the tree at once will do. That was the same thing the GEJ government did with subsidy removal in 2012 that got them the response. Nigerians will never want to understand that it's in their interest and the opposition will play it to the loudest. so the best advice is to cut the tree branch by branch. In other news, petrol has suddenly become readily available in lagos. Guess those marketers cannot afford to sell current stock at 86:50...

@Op....I will excuse your line of thought because u said u are not an economist.....because your analysis is totally hogwash




Av u ever think what will happen if d US or d Japaenese govtd implement d same policy......because even d value of dollar n Yen is also going down...