Here is my analysis of why PDP will still win the re run elections in Rivers. I was born and bred here in rivers so I am not new to Rivers Politics. Rivers State has 23 local government namely 1.Abua/Odual
2.Ahoada East 3.Ahoada West 4.Akuku Toru 5.Andoni 6.Asari-Toru 7.Bonny 8.Degema 9.Emohua 10.Eleme 11.Etche 12.Gokana 13.Ikwerre 14.Khana 15.Obia/Akpor 16.Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni 17.Ogu/Bolo 18.Okrika 19.Omumma 20.Opobo/Nkoro 21.Oyigbo 22.Port-Harcourt 23.Tai, now let us start with PDP's strongholds...
A. Ikwerre: Ikwerre ethnic group is actually the ethnic group of Wike and Amaechi but Amaechi is of Ikwerre LGA while Wike is of Obio Akpor LGA. Wike has the upper hand here because they still want to rule the state and also they are not happy with Amaechi wanting to take away the sceptre from them after ruling his own.
B. Port Harcourt: this is where the capital is located, PDP is very much pronounced in it and as a result would be hard for APC to get.
C. Obio Akpor: The LGA of Wike. I saw in another thread where someone talked of Evo kingdom, there are other kingdoms here, talk of Oropotama kingdom, the Rumuamadis, Rumuodanis and their likes. Only elelenwo sef will give pdp a substantial amount of votes. Wike is sure to win in his LGA.
D. Oyigbo: this is another place that pdp can hope in. The roads Wike has built there alone has won many to his side. Further more, this 4 LGA's has high voters strength individually, talk more of summing them up. Again they are very much populated with the igbos and I don't need to tell you how at logger heads the Igbos and APC are.
E. Degema: this is the LGA of the deputy governor. She is very much loved by her people and the fact that she is a woman makes it easier because there is a kind of eagerness to see a woman in leadership position.
F. Okrika: LGA of PEJ, i don't need to tell you what she can do because for me she is more politically powerful than her husband, APC should not even think of there.
G. Andoni: this is the LGA of the former deputy, Tele Ikuru, his defection back to the PDP weakened the APC very well here as it was already PDP dominated even while he was with the APC.
H. Bonny: this island is for PDP, the ijaws can tell you better.
I. Ogu/Bolo: LGA of senator George Sekibo and former self acclaimed speaker of rivers house of assembly, Evans Bipi. I don't see APC having any chance here.
The other LGAs where PDP has high stakes in are Etche, Eleme, Ahoada East and Ahoada West:ahoada west is the LGA of dakuku's running mate. During Amaechi's tenure they were somehow abandoned, their roads were nothing to write home about so I think APC wants to console them by using one of them as running mate but that has not much effect because Asita Honourable is virtually not known and also Wike repaired most of their roads and they are very happy about it. APC's strongholds-
A. Emohua: nothing much to say cos I think APC has here.
B. Opobo/Nkoro: Dakuku's LGA, he can use his influence as a son here but they have very little voters strength and also former army chief Kenneth Minimah is from here so it may be a tough game for APC here
C. Khana, Gokana and Tai: these three LGA's are Ogoni speaking sides and they are very much for the APC but there is a problem, the Ogonis have been kicking to produce a governor but Dakuku Peterside is from Opobo town in Opobo/Nkoro LGA. It’s in the same senatorial district with the Ogoni’s, with 4 LGA’s (along with Ikwerre – Nyesom Wike’s ethnic group). Going by APC’s rotation formula, it means if Dakuku wins, it will most likely take about 24 years before the Ogoni’s will have a shot at the governorship election again, so this may affect the APC.
D. Ommuma:Here it can be said that they have a slightly bigger base because of defections.
Voters strength is a very big advantage for the PDP. Out of the twenty three local government areas in Rivers State, eight are in the riverine. The total number of votes in these eight local government areas can in no way be compared to that of just one LGA in either Ikwerre or Obio/Akpor Local Government Areas of the state. It is important to note that ward 20 alone of Port Harcourt City, has about 57,000 votes while Okrika and Ogu/Bolo, for instance have less than 50,000 votes. All other LGA's nt mentioned can be described as a 50 50 but with PDP being in government an advantage for them. I don't believe that in Nigeria there is an election that doesn't have at least a small iota of rigging so if PDP can utilized their strongholds very well and 'rig better' because surely there will be rigging on both sides, they will win rivers state again. Finally, the fact that Wike is working has won many people to his side. Modified: we need to pray against violence. If bayelsa with only 8 LGAs can have such high level of violence, imagine what rivers state with 23 LGAs will look like because the desperation on both sides will be very high.
Cc lalasticlala seun Mynd44

We don dash una south south. We've got 2/3 of the nation. It will be greedy to have 3/3 and its gonna be boring too.

One like for APC joooor

Nice analysis... but remember APC are no saint, even though they want us to believe they are.

OP in as much as I believe PDP/Wike will still win should there be a rerun, I want to correct you on point A as I am quite familiar with Rivers geopolitics. Amaechi is from Ubima/Ikwerre local government area while Wike is from Obio/Akpo local government area where he was once the Chairman. Both are of the same Ikwerre ethnic stock though.

APC receiving disgrace from south east south south since time immemorial

Wike is from Obio akpor not ikwere LGA. Mr OP, first impression matters a lot and the first impression I got from your post is that "You Know Not What You Are Saying"

Voice234:
Wike is from Obio akpor not ikwere LGA. Mr OP, first impression matters a lot and the first impression I got from your post is that "You Know Not What You Are Saying"

i know they are not from the same LGAs but what I meant is that they are from Ikwerre descent...i guess i was not direct enough...let me modify it...Modified:you can read through again...i have made amendments

Tranquill:
OP in as much as I believe PDP/Wike will still win should there be a rerun, I want to correct you on point A as I am quite familiar with Rivers geopolitics. Amaechi is from Ubima/Ikwerre local government area while Wike is from Obio/Akpo local government area where he was once the Chairman. Both are of the same Ikwerre ethnic stock though.

thank you...I wasn't direct enough but I have modified it...you can read through again

op you are a funny dude. you claim PDP is on ground yet APC an opposition keep getting defactors on daily basis. in my ward 2 of Rumudra we have over 2000 active supporters. you talked about elelenwo probably because of chinda you forgot that's the home of Hausa community in a Rivers state. PDP is dead and buried in Rivers state. The earlier you get that into your brain the better. you claims Igbo are sympathetic to PDP but how many of these Igbo have their PVC to vote .Even your soo called wike knows this.Besides with all the money wike is sitting on, nobody has defected from APC to PDP. Even in Wilkes ward we are representing that God to a new change of govt. This time their vote will count no matter how small

Voice234:
Wike is from Obio akpor not ikwere LGA. Mr OP, first impression matters a lot and the first impression I got from your post is that "You Know Not What You Are Saying"

go back to the post and see where he said Wike is from, because u want to comment for yo sour losers party u can't even comprehend the write up

donc26:
op you are a funny dude. you claim PDP is on ground yet APC an opposition keep getting defactors on daily basis. in my ward 2 of Rumudra we have over 2000 active supporters. you talked about elelenwo probably because of chinda you forgot that's the home of Hausa community in a Rivers state. PDP is dead and buried in Rivers state. The earlier you get that into your brain the better. you claims Igbo are sympathetic to PDP but how many of these Igbo have their PVC to vote .Even your soo called wike knows this.Besides with all the money wike is sitting on, nobody has defected from APC to PDP. Even in Wilkes ward we are representing that God to a new change of govt. This time their vote will count no matter how small

how many personsd efected to apc in bayelsa, pls park well make I see road

Nice Analysis but Oga mi try dey use Paragraphs abeg!

any body who tinks dat APC will win rivers election must be high on cow shiiiit.

Till then

We have learnt from WikeD that politics is not a popularity contest.

This tym around PDP will be the one going to the tribunal.

Op, your analysis is somewhat detailed, but I disagree with all your points for the following reasons:

1. Obio/Akpor is made up of two enclaves namely: Obio and Akpor Kingdom. Wike is from Obio and he might win there. But Wike cannot win Akpor. Akpor has 10 communities. Wike will not win there.

2. Port Harcourt City LGA or PHALGA is firmly in the hands of APC.

3. Of course, APC will get massive votes from Ikwerre LGA because of the Amaechi factor, though I know that there are many people there who still do not like Amaechi.

4. Tele Ikuru does not have any political capital abeg. His defection was meaningless to APC. Tele cannot even win his ward sef. The real fight in Andoni will be between Uche Secondus and APC. I need not tell you which way Secondus will vote, in view of his recent altercation with the PDP.

5. The current wave of defections hitting the PDP shows that the PDP is continually depleted.

6. Finally, you cannot just predict that PDP will win the re run because the indices have changed. My advice is for both parties to go and campaign and come out to vote on that day. Let us leave predictions aside.

Well, I appreciate ur little analysis on Rivers state re run election if there is going to be which I strongly believe it's going to take place soon. First, both d PDP and d APC have very strong presence in all d 23 LGAs in state. Both Amaechi and Wike are of Ikwerre descent. Amaechi is from Ikwerre LGA while Wike is from Obio/Akpor LGA which happens to be my own LGA too. Few things that will work against Wike if there is re run election are; 1, many Rivers indigenes of d state understands that Wike did highjacked power by destroying zoning in d state. As a result, those who feel its there turn will work against Wike as it has already started happening right now. If u truly listen to news in Rivers state, there are defections here and there from d PDP to APC. 2, Rivers state from time immemorial never play opposition to d govt at d center, even Wike himself said it during campaign that Rivers state don't play opposition. He urged Rivers people to vote d PDP with d believe that GEJ will win. And with still stand by that that Rivers state always align with d center at every given time.3, Nigerians and d world saw what happened in Rivers state during d last administration of GEJ and d election. Where federal might heavily falls on Rivers state to win at all cost. Similar thing will heavily visit Wike and d PDP in Rivers state. Since beginning of this 2016, there has been serious raids and arms recovery in all corners of d sstate which were brought in by many PDP stalwards and chieftains. The federal might has started befalling on Rivers state.

@OP: I am very confident that Dakuku Peterside will emerge loser in the forthcoming Rivers rerun. My prayer is that both parties should shun violence before, during and after the election. As a party, APC in Rivers state is yet to make inroad in Rivers state though they have a few sympathisers like HopeAthand that forms less than 0.00005% of the voting population.

size40:
Well, I appreciate ur little analysis on Rivers state re run election if there is going to be which I strongly believe it's going to take place soon. First, both d PDP and d APC have very strong presence in all d 23 LGAs in state. Both Amaechi and Wike are of Ikwerre descent. Amaechi is from Ikwerre LGA while Wike is from Obio/Akpor LGA which happens to be my own LGA too. Few things that will work against Wike if there is re run election are; 1, many Rivers indigenes of d state understands that Wike did highjacked power by destroying zoning in d state. As a result, those who feel its there turn will work against Wike as it has already started happening right now. If u truly listen to news in Rivers state, there are defections here and there from d PDP to APC. 2, Rivers state from time immemorial never play opposition to d govt at d center, even Wike himself said it during campaign that Rivers state don't play opposition. He urged Rivers people to vote d PDP with d believe that GEJ will win. And with still stand by that that Rivers state always align with d center at every given time.3, Nigerians and d world saw what happened in Rivers state during d last administration of GEJ and d election. Where federal might heavily falls on Rivers state to win at all cost. Similar thing will heavily visit Wike and d PDP in Rivers state. Since beginning of this 2016, there has been serious raids and arms recovery in all corners of d sstate which were brought in by many PDP stalwards and chieftains. The federal might has started befalling on Rivers state.

Everyday federal might federal might,na so una talk federal might for bayelsa wetin happen?

Op I think its too early to post this .
You will be giving the APC clue to work with because politicians work with clues.

Freiden:
We don dash una south south. We've got 2/3 of the nation. It will be greedy to have 3/3 and its gonna be boring too.

One like for APC joooor

Tufiakwa! Olorun maje!

On your own!

Wike does has an upper-hand in the Governorship race but i doubt if that can be said of the Senate, House of Representative and the House of Assembly, i see the election split down the line almost equally between Pdp and Apc.
Finally, you will agree with me that the result from the National and State Assemblies elections would have effect on the Governorship. Nothing is cast in stone.

TonyeBarcanista:
@OP: I am very confident that Dakuku Peterside will emerge loser in the forthcoming Rivers rerun. My prayer is that both parties should shun violence before, during and after the election. As a party, APC in Rivers state is yet to make inroad in Rivers state though they have a few sympathisers like HopeAthand that forms less than 0.00005% of the voting population.

YOU ARE ALWAYS ON WRONG SIDE

EzePromoe:
Dakuku Peterside is politically weak. It was Amaechi that carried him along during the 2015 election. The election was more of an Amaechi vs. Wike tussle than Dakuku vs. Wike tussle. Now that Amaechi is a minister, Dakuku is finished. #Wikedeycomeback

Leave politics alone and concentrate in business.

johnmartus:
YOU ARE ALWAYS ON WRONG SIDE

Who won Bayelsa?

TonyeBarcanista:

Who won Bayelsa?

AND SO? TELL ME THE IMPACT OF DICKSON MADE SO FAR IN BAYELSA FOR THE PAST 4YEARS?

Even if the Igboids from the SE who are resident in Rivers state don't vote, Pdp will still win the state broadly because
1) Upland Igboids of RS are 100% likely to vote the way their SE brother voted
2) The Ijoids will likely vote the way Bayelsans voted
3) Ogoni and Eleme will vote pdp in solidarity with the other ethnic nationalities of the old eastern region

The first two groups are bound to want to avenge GEJ's defeat, and the disrespect heaped on him by the north and the west.

Igboids who make up the majority in the old Eastern region will stand in solidarity with a fellow eastern president who they see as their son, that was unfairly dealt with by the north and west

Ijoids, whose son the former president was, will obviously like to protect the honour and dignity of their son by ensuring pdp wins the day.

So no outlandish thought should ever put RS in the APC column

johnmartus:
AND SO? TELL ME THE IMPACT OF DICKSON MADE SO FAR IN BAYELSA FOR THE PAST 4YEARS?

It was a case of HIV(Dickson) and Cancer(Sylva).


None is better than the other.

Tranquill:
OP in as much as I believe PDP/Wike will still win should there be a rerun, I want to correct you on point A as I am quite familiar with Rivers geopolitics. Amaechi is from Ubima/Ikwerre local government area while Wike is from Obio/Akpo local government area where he was once the Chairman. Both are of the same Ikwerre ethnic stock though.

Without sentiment You can't compare wike n Amaechi... Amaechi had the opportunity to be the god father of ikwerre / Rivers politics when he was speaker n governor but didn't put his house in order. Wike also had the opportunity just like Amaechi but used his opportunities well.. He planted his men everywhere.. I am an Ikwere person I know d both very... Wike will win any time any day..

HopeAtHand:


Leave politics alone and concentrate in business.

Seriously?

honfnj:
Without sentiment You can't compare wike n Amaechi... Amaechi had the opportunity to be the god father of ikwerre / Rivers politics when he was speaker n governor but didn't put his house in order. Wike also had the opportunity just like Amaechi but used his opportunities well.. He planted his men everywhere.. I am an Ikwere person I know d both very... Wike will win any time any day..

If u are an Ikwerreman, you should know that we are divided between Wike and Amaechi. Wike does not appeal to 100% of the Ikwerre population. I would have love to have him there but it is quite immoral, considering The other ethnicities in Rivers.