InvertedHammer:
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This is another proof that Nigeria is a feather weight nation. Nigeria is the giant of Africa as much as a chronic stammerer is the king among the dumb.

If Nigeria were to be a serious nation, some verbal intervention from Emefiele will provide reprieve for the naira.

The king is dancing naked in public!

Instead of thinking outside the box, the people supposedly in-charge will consult western textbooks for solutions. God forbid Africans used their brains to be trendsetters in any discipline. We are born to.be followers and copycats. When everything else fails, they will bring religion into it.-- if not the will of God, it is the devil.
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Yeah, thinking outside the box.

Someone up there should please have the stomach muscle to the so.

NavierStokes:


Yea we need to be prepared, but then the situation imo is very daisy for Nigeria, compared to countries like Russia, Quatar, UAE, Algeria, Norway who have been been able to shore up some good savings, we have a much larger population. In the area of infrastructure we are lacking. The opportunity cost of holding reserves or savings will be a reduced rate of infrastructure buildup. Its almost like the case of say 2 individuals, one from a rich home and the other from a poor home, both getting a job in the same company and maybe the same pay grade. The rich kid may be able to afford to save cos his family already has given him an house, car etc but the poor kid on the same salary will struggle to obtain all these things or risk saving and doing nothing to meet his needs.
That's where i think the past administration found themselves, and they did spend, from increased minimum wages, public spending, increased corpers allowance, plus leakages in the system.

I really do hope we learn and come out of this stronger and wiser, rather than go back to fold out arms when the oil prices rise.

Your argument would have been valid if the past leaders had spent the largesse that resulted from oil boom in building sustainable infrastructure, but did they? I think we both know the answer to that. Do we have a functional power sector? What about aviation and transport do we have world class facilities in those sectors? What about education, health care, etc?

masseratti:
what is fundamentaly wrong is the leader,those women would have performed magic if the leader showed example but he did not,the reason the Gov forum asked for the money to be shared was that the FG was spending the saved money without the consent of the states,that started under Obasanjo and continued under Jonathan,hence the reason for the Govs to asl for the money to be shared instead of FG spending our common wealth at will,Gej does the talk but never had the balls infact he acted in other direction secretly.

I disagree brother, all the past leaders have been products of the system, the system has been the problem. Get the system right and then every one would be able to make visible impact. At the moment bringing lagarde and Jim Yong Kim put together will not be able to make visible impact in this current system.

mark3009:

Your argument would have been valid if the past leaders had spent the largesse that resulted from oil boom in building sustainable infrastructure, but did they? I think we both know the answer to that. Do we have a functional power sector? What about aviation and transport do we have world class facilities in those sectors? What about education, health care, etc?

I already stated Sir that in the area of infrastructure we are lacking. A huge chunk of our budgets you and I both know go into recurrent expenditure, so almost all our revenues go into paying salaries of the civil servants and of course those "seemingly useless" public office holders.

2plus2:


I appreciate your analogy. Permit me to borrow it.

The poor kid can manage the issue of saving if s/he spends only on basic items and avoid luxurious living. This way there will be enough money available to fund infrastructure and some to save. This is what our "rulers" failed and are still failing to realise. They should cut down on recurrent expenditure (this has remained the clamour of well meaning Nigerians); salaries and other treasury draining benefits they enjoy. Particularly the political class.

Naira is receiving heavy bashing not because of anything but the visionless ruling class. They lack genuine patriotism.

Exactly Sir, but then when he lives within his means he fortunately or unfortunately has a wife or kids (family members) that loves show-off, and everyday they say he is very rich (as in the case of Nigeria) and these children plus wife decide to spend far beyond his means.

Look at our country Nigeria, where the political class spends more than her counterparts in the U.S considering that New York alone has a much larger budget than ours. Everyone needs to understand that we are very poor and adjust accordingly. The events of the past 18 months goes to show that we are only living by the mercies of God.

NavierStokes:


Exactly Sir, but then when he lives within his means he fortunately or unfortunately has a wife or kids (family members) that loves show-off, and everyday they say he is very rich (as in the case of Nigeria) and these children plus wife decide to spend far beyond his means.

Look at our country Nigeria, where the political class spends more than her counterparts in the U.S considering that New York alone has a much larger budget than ours. Everyone needs to understand that we are very poor and adjust accordingly. The events of the past 18 months goes to show that we are only living by the mercies of God.

I feel you Sir. However, the picture you successfully painted is exactly what is wrong with our country. As in our poor kid so is our leaders; the leaders a scared of disappointing the citizens as per there expectations while the people on the hand see the affluence the leader lives and refuse to believe all is not well. It's a vicious circle. One the leaders need to tackle if we are to make progress. I know Nigerians are good followers and are willing to adjust if the political class takes practical steps, not mere rethorics, to salvage the situation. Such as cutting down there salaries and wanton benefits.

@NavierStokes

https://www.nairaland.com/2937841/myths-naira-devaluation-nonso-obikili

What are your thoughts?

-Lord

LordAdam:
@NavierStokes

https://www.nairaland.com/2937841/myths-naira-devaluation-nonso-obikili

What are your thoughts?

-Lord

First of all, i agree with the writer on his trail of mythbusting. To devalue or not to devalue has been the subject of the debate, but truth is if a miracle doesn't happen pretty fast we will have no option than to painfully devalue. It has been the case in several countries around the world who have been faced with similar situations.

From the discussion i was having last night, the other party and I agreed on one fact, that a person who was worth 2,000,000 naira last year's september, is currently worth about 1,000,000.
Yes the cbn has had a fixed rate but the value of the currency in the eyes of the citizen is actually the value on the parallel market.

So whether the government choses to devalue or not (at the moment) the naira is already being devalued on the parallel market.

gurunlocker:


nigga I am entitled to my comment, if you don't have anything reasonable to say, just stfu OK?

why did you single handed gej out of the article if you ain't a foolish nigga? motherfucker

The last word just described ur ancestors.

NavierStokes:


First of all, i agree with the writer on his trail of mythbusting. To devalue or not to devalue has been the subject of the debate, but truth is if a miracle doesn't happen pretty fast we will have no option than to painfully devalue. It has been the case in several countries around the world who have been faced with similar situations.

From the discussion i was having last night, the other party and I agreed on one fact, that a person who was worth 2,000,000 naira last year's september, is currently worth about 1,000,000.
Yes the cbn has had a fixed rate but the value of the currency in the eyes of the citizen is actually the value on the parallel market.

So whether the government choses to devalue or not (at the moment) the naira is already being devalued on the parallel market.

I Agree. I estimate that oil prices will hover below $50 for the rest of the year. However, if we do not devalue the official rate to around 220-235 and ease restrictions, economic growth estimate for this year will be reduced again, and the parallel rate will fall faster as austerity measures become tighter.

On the bright side, we can maintain the official 199 rate till around August as long as prices do not fall below $30.

My major concern is that the policy makers are pegging things wrongly. The budget was pegged at $38 per barrel (a rate we don't expect to see until June) and Kachiku has a very bogus optimism that the next OPEC meeting will have Saudi Arabia tightening the noose which should lead to increased prices. Even Adeosun thinks prices will rebound within the first quarter of this year--something I called Alice-in-Wonderland wishful thinking.

Saudi Arabia is preparing for the worst, look at all the news coming out of the rich country with more than $700b in reserves. US and Iran will not agree to the Russia/Saudi Arabia deal for controlled output across the board, so Nigeria should be thinking long-term not short-term in hopes of oil price increasing in a short time.

The next OPEC meeting is in June. I hope PMB's gamble pays off. But if on June 2, OPEC does not unanimously decide to cut the supply glut, Nigeria will enter an economic recession that will be deeper than any levels since Independence.

-Lord

LordAdam:


I Agree. I estimate that oil prices will hover below $50 for the rest of the year. However, if we do not devalue the official rate to around 220-235 and ease restrictions, economic growth estimate for this year will be reduced again, and the parallel rate will fall faster as austerity measures become tighter.

On the bright side, we can maintain the official 199 rate till around August as long as prices do not fall below $30.

My major concern is that the policy makers are pegging things wrongly. The budget was pegged at $38 per barrel (a rate we don't expect to see until June) and Kachiku has a very bogus optimism that the next OPEC meeting will have Saudi Arabia tightening the noose which should lead to increased prices. Even Adeosun thinks prices will rebound within the first quarter of this year--something I called Alice-in-Wonderland wishful thinking.

Saudi Arabia is preparing for the worst, look at all the news coming out of the rich country with more than $700b in reserves. US and Iran will not agree to the Russia/Saudi Arabia deal for controlled output across the board, so Nigeria should be thinking long-term not short-term in hopes of oil price increasing in a short time.

The next OPEC meeting is in June. I hope PMB's gamble pays off. But if on June 2, OPEC does not unanimously decide to cut the supply glut, Nigeria will enter an economic recession that will be deeper than any levels since Independence.

-Lord

Nigeria really needs "big-picture" guys at the top who are also pragmatic, planning for worst case scenarios while hoping for the best, rather the budget reveals a benchmark largely driven by sentiments and optimism. Every corporation in the industry is thinking and planning lower for longer, the Russians planned their budgets on a 10 year forecast of low prices. Sadly we plan for short term,1 year, 2016 and will be reactive by 2017 if things get worse.

NavierStokes:


Nigeria really needs "big-picture" guys at the top who are also pragmatic, planning for worst case scenarios while hoping for the best, rather the budget reveals a benchmark largely driven by sentiments and optimism. Every corporation in the industry is thinking and planning lower for longer, the Russians planned their budgets on a 10 year forecast of low prices. Sadly we plan for short term,1 year, 2016 and will be reactive by 2017 if things get worse.

You just summarized the point. The issue of devaluation like virtually all national policies in this nation is being treated as a short-term thing. Nigeria truly need "big-picture" guys who are able to make tough long-term decisions.

Have a pleasant night rest!

-Lord

LordAdam:


You just summarized the point. The issue of devaluation like virtually all national policies in this nation is being treated as a short-term thing. Nigeria truly need "big-picture" guys who are able to make tough long-term decisions.

Have a pleasant night rest!

-Lord

You too Bro.
Buona Notte

NavierStokes:


I disagree brother, all the past leaders have been products of the system, the system has been the problem. Get the system right and then every one would be able to make visible impact. At the moment bringing lagarde and Jim Yong Kim put together will not be able to make visible impact in this current system.

the system was created by who? Its all leadership problem, right from 1960 corruption and leadership was the problem, reason major kaduna gave was corruption when he striked against the system, the only administration that was not labeled corrupt was Buhari/Idiagbon government, corruption fought back and here we are.

NavierStokes:

You too Bro.
Buona Notte

Good evening LordAdam

Another handle caught

u are a very desperate man

I now have 5 of your NL monikers

Retributionn:


Good evening LordAdam

Another handle caught

u are a very desperate man

I now have 5 of your NL monikers

Bro, What are you saying?

bluaero:
Now $1 to N345.

Buhari Sef ...what did we ever do to deserve this dullard!

U voted for change

Pls what is the current exchange rate Nigeria Naira to the Ghanaian Cedis...tnx

NavierStokes:


Bro, What are you saying?

Continue deceiving yourself

Your desperation is unbelievable

omolola15:


Sometimes I wonder why I argue with you. Did you even read the post at all? Fashola and amaechi were clamoring they share the money from the money they recovered from subsidy.

If we should start on how Obama redeem America, we'll just derail this thread. It took him more than a year. Not months to accomplish this.

GMB has not yet spent up to a year in office.Subsidy has not been removed yet.