1. Buhari/APC To Pay 25m Unemployed N5000 Per Month

Cost Implication:
The implication here is that the sum of N125billion (ie 25million * N5000) will be spent to service this policy every month, and an estimated N1.5 trillion (ie N125bn * 12 months) will be spent on this policy alone every year.

2. Buhari/APC To Provide Daily Meal for Primary School pupils.
First, the FG has no business with the running of Primary schools. This is the responsibility of States and Local Government. However, Buhari's administration pledged to provide at least one meal per day for Primary school Children, we shall hold him accountable.
Cost Implication:
Osun State reportedly spent N3.2billion in 2014 for the feeding of 300,000 primary 1 to 4 pupils in the state. The Osun state program exclude pupils in Primary 5 and 6. If we are to break it per pupil, we will have N10,667 per pupil(ie 3.2b/300k). Considering that over 35million children are estimated to be enrolled in Primary school across the country, at least the sum of THREE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY THREEE BILLION (N373b) is estimated to be spent on the program annually(ie 35m * 10,667).

Gross Annual Estimated Cost For Both Programs
N1.5trn + N373b = N1.873trn

That means Buhari is to increase our Recurrent Expenditure by N1.83trn.

How Feasible Are These Programs?
Let us take a look at the key component of the 2015 Budget(as adjusted by the Senate).
Total Budget Stand at N4.3trn.
Recurrent Expenditure: N2.58 trillion
Capital Expenditure: N700 billion

From where will Buhari See N1.8trn To Service His Social Programs?
- Remove Subsidy? If he's thinking of scrapping fuel subsidy, the adjusted allocation for petrol subsidy in 2015 budget is N100billion. The adjusted allocation for SURE-P is N21b, while the subsidy for kerosene for 2015 was adjusted to N45.5b. This gives a total of N166.5b.
Even if he should scrap SURE-P and remove the petrol and kerosene subsidy, he still won't be able to get 1% of the N1.8trn.

- Spend All Capital Expenditure + Subsidy? Even if Buhari is to spend all our N700b Capital Expenditure on his Social program in addition to the N166.5billion subsidy funds, it still won't be enough as it will fall short of One Trillion Naira.
N700b + N166.5b= N866 billion

- Money Appropriated To NASS? The total budget for the National Assembly for 2015 is N115b. Even if Buhari is to spend this money + subsidy allocation + Capital Expenditure to fund his program, he won't be able to raise the required fund. As all appropriation combined stand at N981billion(ie N700b + N115b + N166b)

So How Does Buhari intend to raise N1.873trillion to fulfil this social welfare pledge? Does this mean the administration has failed even before starting? Dead on arrival?
www.nairaland.com/2265570/buhari-social-program-laudable-laughable

PLEASE TAKE TIME TO READ

This thread is in response to the Thread by Obiagelli's https://www.nairaland.com/2265908/buharis-social-program-very-possible. In her bid to defend the Social policy of Mr Buhari, Obiagelli insulted the intelligence of Nigerians with respect to what is accrued to the Federal Government in revenue per fiscal year.

Nigeria's Revenue:
Nigeria's revenue is accrued through oil export, non oil export, oil tax and non oil tax. The Federal Inland Revenue Service is statutory responsible for the collection of both oil profit tax and non oil tax. The money for oil export goes directly to the Federation Account via the NNPC. The money generated via non oil export goes directly to the federation account through relevant Agencies.

Oil Revenue:
The total sum realised through Oil export(after operational cost) and oil profit tax is known as "Oil Revenue"

Non Oil Revenue
While the sum realised through export of other commodities(after operational cost) and the money realised from non oil profit tax is called "Non Oil Revenue".

What Did Nigeria Earn Between January 2014 and January 2015?
Nigeria Total Earning:
Jan 2014 - June 2014 = N5.109trn

June 2014 - Jan 2015= N3.676trn

Total: N8.785trn

Total Oil Revenue (Oil Export Earning + Oil taxes)
= 70% of Total Revenue ie N6.15trn

*Total Non Oil Revenue (Non Oil Export + Non oil taxes)
= 30% of N8.785trn ie N2.635 trn

Jan 2014- June 2014 = N1.08trn*
July 2014 - Jan 2015= N1.556trn [N2.635trn]

Understanding FIRS 2014 Report:
FIRS announced that the sum of N4.69trn was generated in 2014. The report indicated that N2.45 trillion, representing 52.96 per cent, was collected from petroleum profit tax while N2.24 trillion, representing 47.04 per cent, was collected from non-oil taxes during the period.

Analysis
This sum(N4.69trn) is not independent of the published N8.785trn that Nigeria was said to earn between Jan 2014 and January 2014. It is a part and parcel of the total revenue.

How Much Did FG Get In 2014?
There is a consolidated Sharing formula between FG, States, LGs and Oil Producin States(13%) after operational and other associated cost has been deducted.
FG Earnings In 2014
1st Qtr: N912 billion
2nd Qtr: N864.2 billion
3rd Qtr: N924.68 billon
4th Qtr: N617.186 billion
Total 2014= N3.318trn

2014 Budget: N4.6trn
FG Projected Earning for 2014= N3.73tr
Real Earning = N3.318trn
Deficit in 2014 Fiscal Year: N1.282trn

What this means is that the money accrued to the FG was not even enough to fund 2014 budget. We had a deficit of N1.282trn.
Also note that the fall in oil price affected our earning.

Looking At 2015 Budget:
The 2015 budget(as adjusted) stand at N4.3trn.
Projected Revenue For 2015= N3.603trn
Deficit: N1.297trn (N4.3trn - N3.603trn)

This means the 2015 budget will be run on deficit of N1.297trn (as confirmed by the Senate).

Looking At Buhari's Proposal
With Buhari's proposed N1.89tr Social program, it invariably means an additional N1.89trn will be added to the projected deficit of N1.29 trn ie N3.187trn if he is to go ahead with paying of N5000 to 25 million unemployed annually, from where will he be able to make up the HUGE deficit?.

Analysing The Argument of The Pro-Buharis
Some Pro-Buharis claim that the project will be done in phase of 5m people per year. However, the problem of "How to identify these 5m beneficiaries" and what will be the for selection?
Anyway, that is for another day. Let's go by their argument...
Unemployment benefit: 5m * N5000 = N300 billion.

*The N300b is for the payment benefit alone*. Add that to logistics, overhead and operational cost that the program will incur (approx 50% ie N150billion) annually.

Total: N300b + N150b = N450b

Feeding for 40m Public School Children = N373 billion.

Subtotal: N823 billion.

Where Will Buhari Source For the estimated N823 billion?

- Remove Subsidy? Total package for petrol and kerosene subsidies plus SURE-P fund = N166.5b. That is clearly not up to 30%.

- Invest All Capital Expenditure + Subsidy? This will be a very silly move though. But adding Capital Expenditure and Subsidy will total N866.9 billion. Just a little above the projected N823billion.
Going this route means there will be no project for road, no infrastructure and other capital projects. In fact, it is synonymous to eating the present away.

- Will He Borrow? Borrowing to fund Social Welfare program is synonymous to eating away the future. That means indebting our future and a panacea to economic collapse likened to what happened to Greece if not worse. It also means increasing our already projected deficit of N1.29 trillion

What is the fate of this Social program? Feasible, Laudable or Laughable?
www.nairaland.com/2267102/buhari-social-program-part-ii

sdindan:
Promise and fail is corruption.
Buhari should live by example

ademega:
he has a far better plan. he wants to teach how to fish not give fish. nice one Mr president.

yes ayam zombie from the west...

ademega:
he has a far better plan. he wants to teach how to fish not give fish. nice one Mr president.

yes ayam zombie from the west...

eagleeye2:

So the APC didn't know of this better plan before they proceeded to promise millions of gullible youths the 5k Stipend.



.
I can never be disappointed by Buhari or APC.

DMerciful:
To be sincere, a state where the populace have basic electoral knowledge, it will be difficult to scam them with frivolous and unrealistic promises like these but in Nigeria the masses lack basic electoral knowledge! Else they would have vehemently asked how these promises will be fulfilled but instead they even accepted nepabill as certificate. Enjoy your change but painfully I was dragged along

TonyeBarcanista:


There is this APC friend of mine who was a serving Corp member during the electioneering period. She supported Buhari for this singular purpose claiming that "we have enough money to even pay everybody N10k monthly". I am yet to hear from her on her thought on this latest development.

eagleeye2:

So the APC didn't know of this better plan before they proceeded to promise millions of gullible youths the 5k Stipend.



.
I can never be disappointed by Buhari or APC.

MyMouth:
Barca doing all he can to catch the attention of the new PDP chairman!

ChappyChase:
Where are those maggots that were blasting barcanista for that previous article oya make una come defend una bubu!!!
TonyeBarcanista, putting Apc touts in a tight corner since April 2015!!!! Ride on bro and please try inform those clowns that call themselves ApC supporters that our waillers form has finished!

Owoloku1:
Concentrating on infrastructural development as proposed by Buhari is the best thing anybody can do for Nigerian youths..

Why give us ₦5000 when you can provide an environment for us to make ₦50000 monthly?

MyMouth:
Barca doing all he can to catch the attention of the new PDP chairman!