Fellow Nairalanders, I have been observing the political developments in this country for some times now and decided to put up the result of my observation (research) for public consumption.

Generally, I think the year 2019 is going to be an interesting election year between the two major political parties, viz: the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Let us assume that President Buhari perform wonders in the next three years and probably $1 equals to N1; a litter of fuel goes for N87 and is always available; a bag of rice goes for N7k, a sachet of water returns back to N5; and a lot of employment opportunities were created. With all these in place, no doubt, Buhari would have bought the mind of many. But on a very sincere note, former President Goodluck Jonathan recorded success in virtually all of the above (except $1=N1, which of course he never promised), yet, he was voted out. This goes to show that no matter how wonderfully well the APC led federal government performed, if the PDP do their politicking pretty well and people buy into their program, the APC will be rooted out.

With the latest political development in the country, it is a common knowledge that the APC currently (and will always at least till 2019) have the North West & North East geopolitical zones as their strongholds; while the PDP unarguably currently (and will always at least till 2019) have the South East & South South geopolitical zones as its strongholds. Interestingly, the voting strength of these two blocks (NW & NE vs SE & SS) are almost the same.

From the above epistle, it is therefore visible to the blind and audible to the deaf that the battle field for the 2019 Presidential Election will be the South West and North Central geopolitical zones; and all things being equal, these two zones will decide who finally wins the Presidential election between the two major political parties.

Let me painstakingly analyse the different shapes the election might take:


APC's Northern candidate Versus PDP's Southern candidate

This was the exact combination during the last general election. The APC however "managed" to carry the trophy with 15m votes against PDP's 12m votes - A difference of 3m votes. It was glaring that had all the states in the South East & South South had their complete voting strength, the two zones would have delivered an additional 2m votes to the PDP. And if not for the heavy "propaganda" used by the APC on the people of South West and the North Central (which worked perfectly well), it wouldn't have been a difficult task for the PDP to get at least an additional 1m votes from these two zones. That is bye-gone anyway!
But as the elections were over and the APC given the mantle, it appears to many that they have been "scammed" by the APC's frivolous promises as the slogan "one chance" is now synonymous with the APC led government.
Therefore, if election is to be conducted again with the same combination, the PDP might carry the trophy.

APC's Southern candidate Versus PDP' Southern Candidate

If this becomes the true situation of how the election would be (which I doubt), the APC will be at an advantage. This is because their block votes from the NW & NE zones will certainly be guaranteed while still getting a major percentage of votes from the zone of their candidate (definitely the south west).
The PDP on the other hand will only be guaranteed of votes from their SE & SS strongholds with a minor percentage of votes from the North Central which would not get them the required number of votes to be declared winner.

APC's Southern candidate Versus PDP's Northern candidate

Clearly, this is one mistake the APC will never want to make. Having this combination would give the PDP over 80% of votes in at least four geopolitical zones. With this, the PDP would smoothly cling the Presidency. But I doubt if this combination would ever surface come 2019.


APC's PMB or any other Northern Candidate versus PDP's North East Candidate

This combination, which is most likely to be the true situation come 2019, is definitely going to be the most interesting. This is because the North would simply have to choose between any of their two sons to lead the empire of Nigeria; in other words, whichever way the result goes, their son will still remain in power. This would however make the APC to be at a disadvantage.
With this combination, the PDP will surely get their block votes from the South East & the South South. However, the APC will not be able to record such success in their strongholds, at least, the North East, which is the zone of the PDP's candidate may not give Buhari's APC beyond 40% of their votes. With the PDP getting about 60% of votes from the North East, they would have been on a clear lead. And with just 40-50% of votes from the South West and the North Central zones, the PDP no doubt, would have devoured the "Almighty" APC.

Summary of Findings

APC's Northern candidate versus PDP's Southern candidate will be (APC)50:50(PDP)

APC's Southern candidate versus PDP's Southern candidate will be (APC)60:40(PDP)

APC's Southern candidate versus PDP's Northern candidate will give (APC)40:60(PDP)

APC's Northern candidate versus PDP's Northern candidate will be (APC)45:55(PDP)

This is my humble view with utmost objectivity. Your opinions are welcome.

LudaChriz, 2016.
An Active Nairalander

cc: Lalasticlala, Myd44, TonyeBarcanista, Cleverly, temitemi, NgeneUkwenu, Chukwudi, Passingshot, et al

This too early Bro!

I think which ever way, PDP will root out APC come come 2019

T

chukwukadibia10:
This too early Bro!

It can never be too early bro

The game for every election starts immediately after the result of the election preceding it has been announced. In other words, the game for 2019 started last year. Ask Tinubu or Atiku and they will tell you more

"gej till 2019" in Igbos and wailers mind.

Lol which north east pdp candidate would score 60% of votes against buhari It seems u are among some pdp supporters that think that sheriff is influential in the north and can be able to dislodge Buhari's popularity. Anyway, kano, katsina and kaduna results would be waiting for you by 2019

LudaChriz:

It can never be too early bro

The game for every election starts immediately after the result of the election preceding it has been announced. In other words, the game for 2019 started last year. Ask Tinubu or Atiku and they will tell you more

North-West alone will swallow the entire SE & SS voting power should the election be down to regions. go back to the released INEC voters registration data to get more educated.







Your write up is flawed in so many ways but I have no time to be pointing them out. BTW, how are you so certain that PDP candidate in 2019 will come from NE should the ticket be zoned to the northern region?

Op you have said it all...

we must bring the dynasty of this dullard too untimely end by 2019.

No under-age voters in d north

LudaChriz:
I think which ever way, PDP will root out APC come come 2019

You are wrong! with 6 trillion naira budget Buhari we perform! we are just in haste
Beside there is no way on earth PMB would loose
Tinubu is the master of the game,Another party will arise from APC to field igbo presidential candidate,just to make sure the south east and south south votes are shared
This is not a fiction it will happen

The indices favour any other party except APC if things continue at this rate

But with APC immaturity and desperation to hold on to power despite their high handedness and gradual unpopularity, there wont be a credible or fair election..

Whoever wins, it's going to be at a great cost..

W e should just brace up..

gwales:
Lol which north east pdp candidate would score 60% of votes against buhari It seems u are among some pdp supporters that think that sheriff is influential in the north and can be able to dislodge Buhari's popularity. Anyway, kano, katsina and kaduna results would be waiting for you by 2019

Go and check how many percentage of votes GEJ got from the North East last year, after that, you then use your brain to project what someone from that zone will get come 2019.

LudaChriz where is Justin?
BRB

goonsmi:






North-West alone will swallow the entire SE & SS voting power should the election be down to regions. go back to the released INEC voters registration data to get more educated.







Your write up is flawed in so many ways but I have no time to be pointing them out. BTW, how are you so certain that PDP candidate in 2019 will come from NE should the ticket be zoned to the northern region?

If North West alone will swallow SE & SS votes, where did the PDP got their votes last year that made the difference to be just 3m. This is despite the fact that Anambra, Enugu, Imo, Abia & Cross Rivers did not give up to 50% of their votes due to PVC issue. And also that the SW & NC didn't vote for PDP.
Now you do the maths

LudaChriz:

If North West alone will swallow SE & SS votes, where did the PDP got their votes last year that made the difference to be just 3m. This is despite the fact that Anambra, Enugu, Imo, Abia & Cross Rivers did not give up to 50% of their votes due to PVC issue. And also that the SW & NC didn't vote for PDP.
Now you do the maths

Voters registration data as released by INEC 2015!!!



Lagos 6,247,845

Ogun 1,869,326

Osun 1,293,967

Ondo 1,558,975

Ekiti 750,753

Oyo 2,577,490

Total(SW) 14,298,356


Abia 1,481,191
Anambra 1,758,220
Enugu 1,301,185
Imo 1,611,715
Ebonyi 876,249
Total(SE) 7,028,560


Edo 1,412;225
Delta 1,900,055
Bayelsa 472,389
Akwa Ib 1,714,781
RIvers 2,419,057
C/Rivers 1,018,550
Total(SS) 8,937,057


SW = 14,298,356

SE + SS = 15,965,617

SE + SS - SW= 1,667,261

Jigawa 1,852,698
Kano 5,135,415
Katsina 2,931,668
Kaduna 3,565,762
Kebbi 1,603,468
Sokoto 2,065,508
Zamfara 1,746,024
Total(NW) 18,900,543


Adamawa 1,714,860
Bauchi 1,835,562
Borno 2,730,368
Gombe 1,266,993
Taraba 1,308,106
Yobe 1,182,230
Total(NE) 10,038,119


Benue 1,415,162
Kogi 1,215,405
Kwara 1,115,665
Nassarawa 1,224,206
Niger 721,478
Plateau 1,983,453
Total(NC) 7,675,369


NC+NW+NE 36,614,031


North-South 6,350,058


Total(N+S+FCT)67,764,327

goonsmi:





Voters registration data as released by INEC 2015!!!



Lagos 6,247,845

Ogun 1,869,326

Osun 1,293,967

Ondo 1,558,975

Ekiti 750,753

Oyo 2,577,490

Total(SW) 14,298,356


Abia 1,481,191
Anambra 1,758,220
Enugu 1,301,185
Imo 1,611,715
Ebonyi 876,249
Total(SE) 7,028,560


Edo 1,412;225
Delta 1,900,055
Bayelsa 472,389
Akwa Ib 1,714,781
RIvers 2,419,057
C/Rivers 1,018,550
Total(SS) 8,937,057


SW = 14,298,356

SE + SS = 15,965,617

SE + SS - SW= 1,667,261

Jigawa 1,852,698
Kano 5,135,415
Katsina 2,931,668
Kaduna 3,565,762
Kebbi 1,603,468
Sokoto 2,065,508
Zamfara 1,746,024
Total(NW) 18,900,543


Adamawa 1,714,860
Bauchi 1,835,562
Borno 2,730,368
Gombe 1,266,993
Taraba 1,308,106
Yobe 1,182,230
Total(NE) 10,038,119


Benue 1,415,162
Kogi 1,215,405
Kwara 1,115,665
Nassarawa 1,224,206
Niger 721,478
Plateau 1,983,453
Total(NC) 7,675,369


NC+NW+NE 36,614,031


North-South 6,350,058


Total(N+S+FCT)67,764,327

Forget those figures

Where did the PDP get their votes from in 2015?

With all these millions you are quoting here, the diff was just 3m. With the way APC is going, expect the PDP to give them a gud run for their money come 2019 especially with a North East candidate

This thread has too many flaws (issues).

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First, it is too early.

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You just judged the performance without a budget & u "stylishly" cited what was good in GEJ's tenure .

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The APC aren't fools; they know they have let Nigerians down & they have openly acknowledged their flaws with promises to remedy it.

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If this goverment comes good Nigerians, in their usual manner, would strongly back them up at the polls.

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I don't see the PDP presenting a worthy candidate that would defeat Buhari at the polls.

Only a fool specifically zombies still believe that APC will ever deliver...

APC is the worst scam of the century...
A dullard presiding over elites of the country? What a joke

goonsmi:






North-West alone will swallow the entire SE & SS voting power should the election be down to regions. go back to the released INEC voters registration data to get more educated.

Your write up is flawed in so many ways but I have no time to be pointing them out. BTW, how are you so certain that PDP candidate in 2019 will come from NE should the ticket be zoned to the northern region?

PDP have already zoned the 2019 general election mandate to the NE

I still doubt PDP have a chance come 2019, they failed and APC are the answer that Nigerians need, it's just a difficult time we are in and all people have to hunker down

LudaChriz:

If North West alone will swallow SE & SS votes, where did the PDP got their votes last year that made the difference to be just 3m. This is despite the fact that Anambra, Enugu, Imo, Abia & Cross Rivers did not give up to 50% of their votes due to PVC issue. And also that the SW & NC didn't vote for PDP.
Now you do the maths

Lie , from the INEC records both SW and NC voted 60/40 in most states with Ekiti going 80/20

PDP have no chance come 2019, all Buhari has to do is actualise some of his great ideas he has already started.

PDP might not even be around by that time

I am not a tribalist, but the only northerner I can vote for the Presidency is El rufai(Buhari has made me to strike out Nuhu Ribadu from my options).

Northerners worlview does not go beyond the Arab world and those are 3rd world countries and not fledging democracies. They apply the 'Arab system' to a 'western oriented' people of southern Nigeria. It backfires and cripple governance. This is because most of the technocrats needed to run government positively in Nigeria come from the 'western oriented' people.

This is the only reason why OBJ and GEJ have proven to be better than Yar'adua and Buhari. El rufai is an exception, from his disposition and antecedents.

This "research" is actually funny and definitely cannot pass the basic tests should it be so subjected.

As many have pointed out, your figures are so wrong that committing quality time to the topic will amount to waste of precious time.

SS+SE do not have half of registered voters in the NW+NE+NC. And SW is more of APC than PDP as things stand.

PassingShot:
This "research" is actually funny and definitely cannot pass the basic tests should it be so subjected.

As many have pointed out, your figures are so wrong that committing quality time to the topic will amount to waste of precious time.

SS+SE do not have half of registered voters in the NW+NE+NC and SW is more of APC than PDP as things stand.

Forget the guy, he is just hallucinating & masturbating about an illusion.
I don't know why some people never reason that the 3m voters deficit recorded by GEJ was largely due to the power of incumbency. When the reverse become the case or from an even premise Jonathan cannot muster half of his vote.
I'd beg them to please name PMB challengers either in the North or South.

Gej succeeded not only in all you mentioned, he succeeded in helping corruption to grow too.
Buhari till 2023(by God's grace)!

LudaChriz:

If North West alone will swallow SE & SS votes, where did the PDP got their votes last year that made the difference to be just 3m. This is despite the fact that Anambra, Enugu, Imo, Abia & Cross Rivers did not give up to 50% of their votes due to PVC issue. And also that the SW & NC didn't vote for PDP.
Now you do the maths

liar, go and check again.
If election is conducted 10 times over btw buhari and gej, buhari wld carry d day.

Nice try op, but next time, try to be rational in your analysis.

Aufbauh:


Forget the guy, he is just hallucinating & masturbating about an illusion.
I don't know why some people never reason that the 3m voters deficit recorded by GEJ was largely due to the power of incumbency. When the reverse become the case or on from an even premise Jonathan cannot muster half of his vote.
I'd beg them to please name PMB challengers either in the North or South.

From psychology point of view, I can conclude that their behaviour is shaped by their knowledge that PMB will win a second term which will compound their frustration. So, they thought enaging in reverse psychology for 2019 will do them any good.

As you said, let them name a politician they think has a remote possibility of defeating PMB in 2019 so that we analyze their chances.

LudaChriz:

Forget those figures

Where did the PDP get their votes from in 2015?

With all these millions you are quoting here, the diff was just 3m. With the way APC is going, expect the PDP to give them a gud run for their money come 2019 especially with a North East candidate

GEJ got most of his votes from the SS and the SE also tried but trust much of those figure declared for GEJ is down to his incumbency power which PDP will not have the chance to enjoy in the subsequent elections. Look at Rivers state that declared almost 2m votes will now struggle to declare 700,000 and large parts of that vote will be shared with the APC unlike before.

LudaChriz:

Forget those figures

Where did the PDP get their votes from in 2015?

With all these millions you are quoting here, the diff was just 3m. With the way APC is going, expect the PDP to give them a gud run for their money come 2019 especially with a North East candidate

He should forget the official figures of the capacity of each region and States Then on what basis is your argument and analysis



Typical wailer !!!

gwales:
Lol which north east pdp candidate would score 60% of votes against buhari It seems u are among some pdp supporters that think that sheriff is influential in the north and can be able to dislodge Buhari's popularity. Anyway, kano, katsina and kaduna results would be waiting for you by 2019

The same NE they left to burn This PDP people are jokers.

goonsmi:






North-West alone will swallow the entire SE & SS voting power should the election be down to regions. go back to the released INEC voters registration data to get more educated.







Your write up is flawed in so many ways but I have no time to be pointing them out. BTW, how are you so certain that PDP candidate in 2019 will come from NE should the ticket be zoned to the northern region?

Whoever is chosen as the vice presidential candidate of PDP will be the deciding factor.
PDP Possible combinations and outcomes:
1. NE President & SS Vice President : 50:50.
2. NE President & SE VP :Total Loss for PDP
3. NE President & NC VP: A win for PDP.
4. NE President & SW VP: A win for PDP.

The reason for the SE disastrous outcome is because the igbos have failed to build bridges, extend their tentacles and stop showing brazen hatred for other ethnic group particularly the SW and the general North. PDP has just only one failure card and that is the SE.