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It's the economy, Silly!!! - Politics - Nairaland

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It's the economy, Silly!!! by Emmyvans: 6:56pm On May 02, 2016
My Expectations

Just a few background that may help you understand my view points and the probable bias you may identify; I am an apologist of the current administration, at least before it came into power. My support was on the basis of its promised fight against corruption and its quest to rid the North Eastern part of Nigeria of the dreaded Boko Haram sect. At that time, I was of the opinion that those were the 2 pressing issues befalling the nation and I strongly believed that the current administration was going to thrive in those areas.

The third area that was and still is important to me, like most Nigerians, was the issue of power. I wasn’t expecting a miracle here but I was overly optimistic when I got news that Babatunde Raji Fashola would head the ministry of Power, works and housing. There’s a saying that give Nigerians power and all will be well. Has it been well thus far? It appears that the power thingy may have retrogressed.

So far, there’s been a lot of hullabaloo all over news of misappropriated funds, accusations here and there and increased fraud cases filed in courts. The media has reported interesting discoveries by the EFCC but it’s unfortunate that the big stick has been waggling on benefactors and members of the last administration. This is not to say that the several allegations are unfounded but until corrupt officials are found guilty and sentenced sanely by a court of competent jurisdiction, then it will all remain activities.

The Nigerian Army appears to be making good progress in it bit to rid the North East of Boko Haram but from all and sundry, it is obvious that the sect has eating real deep into the country than we may have thought. Well, until the suicide bombing stops, the raiding of villages ends, the incessant killing of innocent citizens is brought to a halt, the administration is yet to succeed by my books.

It’s the Economy, Silly


All my expectations were based on the economic jargon called ceteris paribus. It means all other factors remaining constant, including the economic progress being made, the fair crude oil price, stable exchange rate and available FOREX. In fact, let’s simply say, the macro-economy being stable.

This, however, isn’t the case right now. Economic indicators aren’t fairing so well as growth rate of the largest economy in Africa slowed from 6.2% in 2014 to 2.79% in 2015, her lowest growth rate since the outset of democratic rule in 1999 when the economy expanded 1.2%. Crude oil prices that averaged $100 in 2014 lost 50% of its value to trade at an average $49 in 2015.


According to data from the CBN statistical bulletin (2014), Nigeria earned $94bn in 2011, $91bn in 2012, $90bn in 2013 and $76.5bn in 2014 from the export of crude oil and gas. Note that crude oil exports contributed 73% of the nation’s total export earnings ($103bn) in 2014. In 2015, Nigeria’s FOREX earnings from crude oil export dipped 54% to $35.5bn while the total export basket brought in $50bn.

With the decrease in the supply of dollars (foreign exchange) through the export path and demand for it not declining as much (if at all), it is expected that the price of the dollar against the Naira would have risen, hence, a depreciation in the value of the Naira. On the official window, exchange rate averaged 158.55 in 2014 and depreciated 23% to an average 195.5 in 2015. However, amongst Bureau De Change, the dollar sold for an average N171.45 in 2014, the naira depreciated 30% to N222.78=$1 in 2015 and with restricted access to the hard currency on the official window, the dollar traded at an average N313.51 in the first quarter of 2016, as it dropped a further 40%. Thus, between 2014 and the Q1 2016, the naira has lost 83% of its value against the dollar. At the height of speculation, the dollar had sold for over N400 on the parallel market.

The Average Nigerian

The challenges of declining crude oil price, reduction in dollar supply, depreciated exchange rate naira and restrictions in access to foreign exchange from the official window may simply be responsible for the economic quagmire we sit in. It may not all be the fault of this administration. May be it was even the last. But if this administration can’t find a solution around the nation’s imminent challenges, then may be it needs to stand down. In fact, something tells me all the government and its agencies are doing is speculating on crude oil price and hoping for some significant increase.

In March 2016, inflation rose 12.8% to its highest level since July 2012. Although majority of Nigerians presume that consumer prices may have jumped over 50% from a year ago, given that, among other things,the 45% increase in electricity tariff, that a litre of PMS (petrol) has been selling for an average N170 since fuel scarcity bit hard in March (up 95% from the approved price) and that a bag of rise is priced at an average N14,000 (up from an average N7,500 a year ago). Cost of living has indeed increased significantly given that income level has remained sticky. The bulk of the current inflation may be classified as cost-push (cost of iputs) driven through the depreciating exchange rate. One wonders what inflation will rise to once the implementation of the 2016 (yet to be signed) budget finally takes full swing.

(Note that food and Non-alcoholic beverages have a weight of 51.8% in the consumer price index (CPI) while housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel has a 16.7% weighting.)
As it seems, diversifying the nations export away from its huge dependence on crude oil may be a key concern over the long term to reduce the shocks it has on the Nigerian economy. But like foremost economist, John Maynard Keynes, once said, “in the long run, we are all dead”.
(On the side note, crude oil and gas only contributed 11% to the Nigerian economy in 2014 and one may say that the Nigerian economy is fairly diversified than it was in 2000 when the sector contributed 48.9% to the economy).
[quote][/quote]
Citizens want some relief to these devastating economic situation and in as much as diversifying the economy’s export and limiting its dependence on importation of consumer goods may appear sane (we’ll take a look at those numbers critically on a later date), we want some opium for this mess. May be a quick fix won’t be out of place, if it exists.

Re-echoing the words on the streets, “we want fuel, we want light, we want the price of food to come down” after which you can go back to the pursuit of those criminals who embezzled our common wealth.

[s]On a side note, even the canteen at the office has done some margin improvement as I have to pay 33% more to derive the same level of satisfaction as before.
[/s]
"Imaguezegie Emmanuel is a graduate of Economics and statistics from the University of Benin, a Chartered Stockbroker and a Channel Marketing Analyst with PZ Cussons"

1 Like

Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by oduastates: 7:24pm On May 02, 2016

All the gibberish and still ended up saying nothing.

How do you tell oni tomatoes that marginally increasing Public sector salaries does not mean that they should increase the price of tomatoes.
This gibberish will not change Nigerians to tax payers.
That they have to fund their government and not the other way round.
Will it stop them from going after ill-gotten weath.

Like I have said before.
When Nigerians stop the delusion of having an economy,then we will start getting somewhere.
Inflation, capital markets,stock exchange are like your idea of a government. We have the illusion of having something like America, Canada, britain. In reality, it is an illusion. It does not exist.
The closest to having a tool for dealing with inflation in that illusion is by reducing the supply of naira.
Every year, the CBN hands over N600 billion to the bank by printing money, lend it to them, then borrow it bank at an higher interest rate.
These banks make that much from simply lending you your own money back.
That scam has been going on for a long time.
They do not have to invest in housing, toll roads, mortgages, loans etc. All they have to do is hand the money back to the CBN. N600 billion just like that
Rinse and Repeat every year.
See those 4 fingers? They are pointing at you.
For choosing to live in that illusion.

3 Likes

Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by Emmyvans: 7:30pm On May 02, 2016
Nigeria crude oil export earnings

Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by Emmyvans: 8:40pm On May 02, 2016
oduastates:

All the gibberish and still ended up saying nothing.

How do you tell oni tomatoes that marginally increasing Public sector salaries does not mean that they should increase the price of tomatoes.
This gibberish will not change Nigerians to tax payers.
That they have to fund their government and not the other way round.
Will it stop them from going after ill-gotten weath.

Like I have said before.
When Nigerians stop the delusion of having an economy,then we will start getting somewhere.
Inflation, capital markets,stock exchange are like your idea of a government. We have the illusion of having something like America, Canada, britain. In reality, it is an illusion. It does not exist.
The closest to having a tool for dealing with inflation in that illusion is by reducing the supply of naira.
Every year, the CBN hands over N600 billion to the bank by printing money, lend it to them, then borrow it bank at an higher interest rate.
These banks make that much from simply lending you your own money back.
That scam has been going on for a long time.
They do not have to invest in housing, toll roads, mortgages, loans etc. All they have to do is hand the money back to the CBN. N600 billion just like that
Rinse and Repeat every year.
See those 4 fingers? They are pointing at you.
For choosing to live in that illusion.

Nice point Oduastates.
Notably the one made on the use of money supply to influence the level of activity in the economy and how it would have been significant if banks invested funds in housing, toll roads, mortgages and loans for businesses. But would prefer to invest them in treasury bills sold by the CBN and make a simple margin.
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by trillville(m): 9:17pm On May 02, 2016
Oduastates
What solution have you proposed now. Agreed we have a fake economy, what should we do to correct it.
Currently, over 70 percent of expenditure is on recurrent expenses, mostly funded by oil revenues. Most of this expenditure is on payment of civil servants salaries.

How much impact do these civil servants have on the lives of ordinary nigerians?

Should the Nigerian masses pay taxes like other developed nations, to pay government workers' salaries?

Should the Federal government rationalise the civil service and then institute a tax regime? How will the labour congress accept such a policy?

Should the Federal government just sit and wait for oil prices to rise?

Why attack oni tomatoes? Don't we all deserve to have a better life?
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by chinchum(m): 10:41pm On May 02, 2016
That was bill clinton's catchphrase at the run up to the 1992 presidential election.

To the post, there are lots of armchair critics who have not identified practical solutions to our current challenges.

In a storm , you can only weather it, you cant stop it. We can only hope the storm doesnt last longer than usual. Wanting the current day govt to stop the storm is asking for magic , magic is purely impractical.
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by trillville(m): 11:36pm On May 02, 2016
chinchum:
That was bill clinton's catchphrase at the run up to the 1992 presidential election.

To the post, there are lots of armchair critics who have not identified practical solutions to our current challenges.

In a storm , you can only weather it, you cant stop it. We can only hope the storm doesnt last longer than usual. Wanting the current day govt to stop the storm is asking for magic , magic is purely impractical.

So because there's a storm, government shouldn't build a shelter but should fold it's arms and wait for the storm to get over?

I am pro-buhari and will always be anti-jonathan but this administration needs to make tough choices, some not politically palatable, that would lead to a more progressive country.

1 Like

Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by chinchum(m): 11:38am On May 03, 2016
trillville:


So because there's a storm, government shouldn't build a shelter but should fold it's arms and wait for the storm to get over?

I am pro-buhari and will always be anti-jonathan but this administration needs to make tough choices, some not politically palatable, that would lead to a more progressive country.
And so what happens when you are building shelter in a storm ? your guess should be good as mine. There would be lots of exposed people, because shelters are best built before the storm, but in the event they are built in the midst of the storm, there are people that would be exposed to the storm. Weathering the storm is not the same as folding your hands and waiting for the storm to be over.

If i may ask what though choices are you recommending that the current govt is not doing. I think discussing about those ones are more important. The opening post wrote so much as to the problems, but left out suggestions as to how to improve. Talk is cheap.
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by trillville(m): 12:23pm On May 03, 2016
chinchum:
And so what happens when you are building shelter in a storm ? your guess should be good as mine. There would be lots of exposed people, because shelters are best built before the storm, but in the event they are built in the midst of the storm, there are people that would be exposed to the storm. Weathering the storm is not the same as folding your hands and waiting for the storm to be over.

If i may ask what though choices are you recommending that the current govt is not doing. I think discussing about those ones are more important. The opening post wrote so much as to the problems, but left out suggestions as to how to improve. Talk is cheap.


Enough of this storm talk. This post may be long, please bear with me.

I see this current crisis as a big opportunity for nigeria to right it wrongs and develop into a great nation.

All across Africa, countries have better electricity supply than nigeria. Why is this?

Nigeria has a huge income disparity between its rich and it's extremely poor. Why is this?

Nigeria is rich in multiple resources yet our people continue to suffer in abject poverty. Why is this?


People tend to say we have bad leaders or that our leaders are just too corrupt. I completely disagree with this notion.

Our leaders are a product of we the citizens. Does this mean all nigerian citizens lack leadership skills and corrupt? I think not.

What we are experiencing in nigeria are classical effects of the Dutch disease. We earn revenue from natural resources, hence our government doesn't collect suitable taxes. This makes people in the government act in their own self interest. This also prevents the general public from holding their leaders accountable for their actions. Hence the country losea it's ability to develop.

Seun posted a link to a financial times article about how Norway (I believe) escaped the trap of the Dutch disease.

How do we get out of this mess? Institute a policy whereby all oil revenues are used on infrastructural projects, savings and not on paying salaries of public and civil servants. This cannot be achieved in a few years. It would probably take over 10 years to achieve this.

What this government can do is replace civil servants with manual labourers. Rather than have people who do nothing, employ people to build mass housing units for the less privileged. This will spur employment for both skilled and unskilled labour.

It would be extremely morally wrong for today's government to ask nigerian citizens to pay any additional taxes to enable government to pay civil/public servants who do little or nothing to benefit the general public.

If government were to shift it'd focus to providing infrastructure be it electricity as opposed stomach infrastructure, nigerians may be more willing to pay taxes since they will be seeing the benefits government is providing. This will also make citizens hold government to its task of further providing infrastructure thereby creating a functioning system.

PS
I am a government worker and I travelled 4 hours to get to work this morning bring the first woring day this week. I got to work around 10:30 and still came before half the members of my office. How motivated do you think I am feeling right now. I have been writing this post on office time (using my private network though), yet i will demand to get paid and complain if payments are delayed through no fault of the government. I am indeed a nigerian civil servant.

1 Like

Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by chinchum(m): 6:47pm On May 03, 2016
trillville:


Enough of this storm talk. This post may be long, please bear with me.

I see this current crisis as a big opportunity for nigeria to right it wrongs and develop into a great nation.

All across Africa, countries have better electricity supply than nigeria. Why is this?

Nigeria has a huge income disparity between its rich and it's extremely poor. Why is this?

Nigeria is rich in multiple resources yet our people continue to suffer in abject poverty. Why is this?


People tend to say we have bad leaders or that our leaders are just too corrupt. I completely disagree with this notion.

Our leaders are a product of we the citizens. Does this mean all nigerian citizens lack leadership skills and corrupt? I think not.

What we are experiencing in nigeria are classical effects of the Dutch disease. We earn revenue from natural resources, hence our government doesn't collect suitable taxes. This makes people in the government act in their own self interest. This also prevents the general public from holding their leaders accountable for their actions. Hence the country losea it's ability to develop.

Seun posted a link to a financial times article about how Norway (I believe) escaped the trap of the Dutch disease.

How do we get out of this mess? Institute a policy whereby all oil revenues are used on infrastructural projects, savings and not on paying salaries of public and civil servants. This cannot be achieved in a few years. It would probably take over 10 years to achieve this.

What this government can do is replace civil servants with manual labourers. Rather than have people who do nothing, employ people to build mass housing units for the less privileged. This will spur employment for both skilled and unskilled labour.

It would be extremely morally wrong for today's government to ask nigerian citizens to pay any additional taxes to enable government to pay civil/public servants who do little or nothing to benefit the general public.

If government were to shift it'd focus to providing infrastructure be it electricity as opposed stomach infrastructure, nigerians may be more willing to pay taxes since they will be seeing the benefits government is providing. This will also make citizens hold government to its task of further providing infrastructure thereby creating a functioning system.

PS
I am a government worker and I travelled 4 hours to get to work this morning bring the first woring day this week. I got to work around 10:30 and still came before half the members of my office. How motivated do you think I am feeling right now. I have been writing this post on office time (using my private network though), yet i will demand to get paid and complain if payments are delayed through no fault of the government. I am indeed a nigerian civil servant.

Oh yeah, how practicable are your solutions?

My past posts will tell of my irritation with bulk of civil servants, i believe more than half of Nigerians civil servants are doing next to nothing, and if i have a magic button to fix that problem, i would press it without hesitation. Apart from education and health sectors that might need more workers, the other sectors need a net drop in size of workers. But can a govt yet to make appreciable impact at this very tough time start sacking workers now and not face a stiff revolt? How practicable is replacing civil servants with manual labourers? replacing doctors, lawyers , engineers, teachers, diplomats with manual labourers ? Do you know about NLC? Do you know this is a democratic govt and not a military govt.? Build houses for the less priviledge? like building and dashing houses to the less priviledge grin? You see why i wrote talk is cheap?

Tough decisions govt should take. 1. removal of fuel subsidy 2. privatise the transmission arm of the power sector 3. Increase VAT from 5% to 8-10% 4. downsize the bloated civil service.

But before govt does the above, it must sequence it. Govt. should not get 1. done, until Nigeria is self sufficient in refining locally its daily oil needs. Number 2. can be done ASAP. Number 3. can be done when Nigerians can feel the impact of this current govt positively, possibly at the beginning of its second term tenure if it gets it. Number 4 can also be done at the start of the second term tenure if it gets it. The private sectors should be the one creating the jobs, govt should be more focused on ensuring the business climate is friendly in stead of creating unproductive jobs. SMEs are the drivers of the economy.

When i hear so much noise made about diversification of economy, i have argued the biggest diversification starts from 1. putting an end to importation of refined oil products which consume 38- 40% of our forex 2. Getting more megawatts to homes and industries to power the SMEs , and bring down cost of doing businesses.
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by 989900: 7:36pm On May 03, 2016
chinchum:
Oh yeah, how practicable are your solutions?

My past posts will tell of my irritation with bulk of civil servants, i believe more than half of Nigerians civil servants are doing next to nothing, and if i have a magic button to fix that problem, i would press it without hesitation. Apart from education and health sectors that might need more workers, the other sectors need a net drop in size of workers. But can a govt yet to make appreciable impact at this very tough time start sacking workers now and not face a stiff revolt? How practicable is replacing civil servants with manual labourers? replacing doctors, lawyers , engineers, teachers, diplomats with manual labourers ? Do you know about NLC? Do you know this is a democratic govt and not a military govt.? Build houses for the less priviledge? like building and dashing houses to the less priviledge grin? You see why i wrote talk is cheap?

Tough decisions govt should take. 1. removal of fuel subsidy 2. privatise the transmission arm of the power sector 3. Increase VAT from 5% to 8-10% 4. downsize the bloated civil service.

But before govt does the above, it must sequence it. Govt. should not get 1. done, until Nigeria is self sufficient in refining locally its daily oil needs. Number 2. can be done ASAP. Number 3. can be done when Nigerians can feel the impact of this current govt positively, possibly at the beginning of its second term tenure if it gets it. Number 4 can also be done at the start of the second term tenure if it gets it. The private sectors should be the one creating the jobs, govt should be more focused on ensuring the business climate is friendly in stead of creating unproductive jobs. SMEs are the drivers of the economy.

When i hear so much noise made about diversification of economy, i have argued the biggest diversification starts from 1. putting an end to importation of refined oil products which consume 38- 40% of our forex 2. Getting more megawatts to homes and industries to power the SMEs , and bring down cost of doing businesses.


Touche!



We are not going anywhere until the parts in bold are first addressed!
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by 989900: 7:45pm On May 03, 2016
oduastates:

All the gibberish and still ended up saying nothing.

How do you tell oni tomatoes that marginally increasing Public sector salaries does not mean that they should increase the price of tomatoes.
This gibberish will not change Nigerians to tax payers.
That they have to fund their government and not the other way round.
Will it stop them from going after ill-gotten weath.

Like I have said before.
When Nigerians stop the delusion of having an economy,then we will start getting somewhere.
Inflation, capital markets,stock exchange are like your idea of a government. We have the illusion of having something like America, Canada, britain. In reality, it is an illusion. It does not exist.
The closest to having a tool for dealing with inflation in that illusion is by reducing the supply of naira.
Every year, the CBN hands over N600 billion to the bank by printing money, lend it to them, then borrow it bank at an higher interest rate.
These banks make that much from simply lending you your own money back.
That scam has been going on for a long time.
They do not have to invest in housing, toll roads, mortgages, loans etc. All they have to do is hand the money back to the CBN. N600 billion just like that
Rinse and Repeat every year.
See those 4 fingers? They are pointing at you.
For choosing to live in that illusion.

The CBN deliberately creates excess liquidity, which they in turn, scamper to mop up = free money for the banks.
Henry Boyo been screaming this from forever, but they all pretend not to know what he is talking about.
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by 989900: 7:48pm On May 03, 2016
Between oduastates and chinchum's comments, lie the solution to over 60% of our problems.
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by trillville(m): 9:12pm On May 03, 2016
chinchum:
Oh yeah, how practicable are your solutions?

My past posts will tell of my irritation with bulk of civil servants, i believe more than half of Nigerians civil servants are doing next to nothing, and if i have a magic button to fix that problem, i would press it without hesitation. Apart from education and health sectors that might need more workers, the other sectors need a net drop in size of workers. But can a govt yet to make appreciable impact at this very tough time start sacking workers now and not face a stiff revolt? How practicable is replacing civil servants with manual labourers? replacing doctors, lawyers , engineers, teachers, diplomats with manual labourers ? Do you know about NLC? Do you know this is a democratic govt and not a military govt.? Build houses for the less priviledge? like building and dashing houses to the less priviledge grin? You see why i wrote talk is cheap?

Tough decisions govt should take. 1. removal of fuel subsidy 2. privatise the transmission arm of the power sector 3. Increase VAT from 5% to 8-10% 4. downsize the bloated civil service.

But before govt does the above, it must sequence it. Govt. should not get 1. done, until Nigeria is self sufficient in refining locally its daily oil needs. Number 2. can be done ASAP. Number 3. can be done when Nigerians can feel the impact of this current govt positively, possibly at the beginning of its second term tenure if it gets it. Number 4 can also be done at the start of the second term tenure if it gets it. The private sectors should be the one creating the jobs, govt should be more focused on ensuring the business climate is friendly in stead of creating unproductive jobs. SMEs are the drivers of the economy.

When i hear so much noise made about diversification of economy, i have argued the biggest diversification starts from 1. putting an end to importation of refined oil products which consume 38- 40% of our forex 2. Getting more megawatts to homes and industries to power the SMEs , and bring down cost of doing businesses.

I don't want to argue for the sake of arguing. Your solutions put the cost/burden equally on rich and poor nigerians. This is not fair. Oil wealth belongs to all nigerians, well educated and poorly educated alike. The fact that we went to school shouldn't mean we should benefit more from oil resources when we add absolutely nothing to the betterment of society. Moreover, the poor voted Buhari in and his focus should solidly be on reducing the inequality in nigerians standards of living.

As oduahstates said, we are living in a false economy. Most nigerians shouldn't be driving the cars they drive or living in the houses they live in. Most of us make our living one way or another from oil. The fact that we are smarter than the less educated does not make it right that we benefit more from oil than them.

The western world takes care of its poorest by taxing the well to do. In nigeria, we have oil wealth separate from taxes as a source of income, yet we find it laughable to improve the standard of living of our poor.

I sound socialist and maybe I am socialist. I have seen enough in this short life to know working to meet the overall needs of majority of people is not only morally right, but also economically savvy.
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by chinchum(m): 1:23pm On May 04, 2016
trillville:

I don't want to argue for the sake of arguing. Your solutions put the cost/burden equally on rich and poor nigerians. This is not fair. Oil wealth belongs to all nigerians, well educated and poorly educated alike. The fact that we went to school shouldn't mean we should benefit more from oil resources when we add absolutely nothing to the betterment of society. Moreover, the poor voted Buhari in and his focus should solidly be on reducing the inequality in nigerians standards of living.

As oduahstates said, we are living in a false economy. Most nigerians shouldn't be driving the cars they drive or living in the houses they live in. Most of us make our living one way or another from oil. The fact that we are smarter than the less educated does not make it right that we benefit more from oil than them.

The western world takes care of its poorest by taxing the well to do. In nigeria, we have oil wealth separate from taxes as a source of income, yet we find it laughable to improve the standard of living of our poor.

I sound socialist and maybe I am socialist. I have seen enough in this short life to know working to meet the overall needs of majority of people is not only morally right, but also economically savvy.



Yes oil wealth belongs to all Nigerians, but your ideas are vague i must confess. Building houses for the less privilege? how do you define less privilege sef? if govt dey build house to dash people, you sef no go claim less priviledge. Ordinary to dash 5,000 naira to 'less priviledge' is already causing ruckus, because you can bet many employed people are ready to collect 5,000 as long as it is a part of the national pie.

Nigerias oil wealth is actually overrated, the moment you consider we are close to 200 million in population. 2 million barrels /day for 200 million population is not my idea of oil wealth. Bring out a list of the so called oil rich nations, and a comparison will make you laugh at the wrong assumption we are oil rich.

Reducing the bloated civil service at the moment without fixing basics that would spur SMEs growth is also wickedness on the so called 'poor' you claim to love. I opine that more than 80% of the civil service are level 10 officers and below. A level 10 officer earns less than 50,000 /month. If you sack these sort of people, lets say they are paid off handsomely, can the business climate guarantee that some can start SMEs to the point of survival and growth? I believe there are three top most reasons why most SMEs fail 1. poor power supply that shoots up cost of doing business 2. Very difficult access to credit facilities 3. Weak knowledge of the business . Govt should put extra focus on the first two at least. The SMEs can create jobs better than the civil service can ever do.

The best way to reduce inequality is massive job creation. If you are nice , you will most likely have like 1 or 2 adults who are old enough to be working but currently have no job as such partly or fully dependent on you. When those ones have a job, you have a burden lifted off you, and you can get better value for your income.

Govt should strive to increase its tax net, there are lots of people who are well to do, under paying or not even paying. Nigeria's VAT is also one of the least at 5%, there are some countries with over 20% VAT, Ghana is a good example.
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by trillville(m): 3:07pm On May 04, 2016
chinchum:
Yes oil wealth belongs to all Nigerians, but your ideas are vague i must confess. Building houses for the less privilege? how do you define less privilege sef? if govt dey build house to dash people, you sef no go claim less priviledge. Ordinary to dash 5,000 naira to 'less priviledge' is already causing ruckus, because you can bet many employed people are ready to collect 5,000 as long as it is a part of the national pie.

Nigerias oil wealth is actually overrated, the moment you consider we are close to 200 million in population. 2 million barrels /day for 200 million population is not my idea of oil wealth. Bring out a list of the so called oil rich nations, and a comparison will make you laugh at the wrong assumption we are oil rich.

Reducing the bloated civil service at the moment without fixing basics that would spur SMEs growth is also wickedness on the so called 'poor' you claim to love. I opine that more than 80% of the civil service are level 10 officers and below. A level 10 officer earns less than 50,000 /month. If you sack these sort of people, lets say they are paid off handsomely, can the business climate guarantee that some can start SMEs to the point of survival and growth? I believe there are three top most reasons why most SMEs fail 1. poor power supply that shoots up cost of doing business 2. Very difficult access to credit facilities 3. Weak knowledge of the business . Govt should put extra focus on the first two at least. The SMEs can create jobs better than the civil service can ever do.

The best way to reduce inequality is massive job creation. If you are nice , you will most likely have like 1 or 2 adults who are old enough to be working but currently have no job as such partly or fully dependent on you. When those ones have a job, you have a burden lifted off you, and you can get better value for your income.

Govt should strive to increase its tax net, there are lots of people who are well to do, under paying or not even paying. Nigeria's VAT is also one of the least at 5%, there are some countries with over 20% VAT, Ghana is a good example.

My issue with civil servants is that they are being paid to do nothing. If the civil servants chose to become productive bricklayers, why should any lose his or her job? We have too many white collar workers that's why graduate level unemployment is so high.

In the UK, less than 30 percent of jobs require university degrees, hence many British finish education at the ordinary diploma level, yet they live well and render quality services.

We all complain about how subsidies lead to corruption. Is it not corruption to take what belongs to everybody and give it to a few people for free without any benefit to the everybody like?

The fact that my views are different doesn't make them unrealistic. Both US and UK governments subsidise housing for their poor.

The idea of building mass housing is not just altruistic but also economically wise. If nigeria were to set up mass building projects, individuals such as cement producers, building material producers, architects, builders, labourers,cooks, etc, will all benefit directly at the same time will promote healthier standards on living reducing nigerias overall medical cost.

Mass building is not the only form on infrastructure nigeria needs. Our schools, hospitals, power plants, irrigation systems, roads, etc need to be built or rebuilt. I am advocating for a shift from paying ineffectual civil/public servants money from oil revenues to spending on infrastructure.

The South Korean government created daewoo to spur economic development. We don't produce steel yet and also have insufficient amounts of electricity. Luckily, we kickstart our economy through infrastructural projects.

As I said yesterday, considering the lack of benefits nigerians derive from oil revenues, it would be morally wrong for us to pay taxes to the Federal government only for such monies to be spent on civil/public workers who contribute little or nothing to our lives.

Finally, there is also a price to pay for whatever situation we find ourselves. Today we have poor electricity, water, health care,roads, etc. Tomorrow we may have a few hungry civil servants. Someone has to pay the price. What matters most are our long term goals of being a great nation.

Built by csar Peter the Great, St. Petersburg one of europes most beautiful cities, was built on marshy land, which was fortified with the bones of Russian brick layers and masons who built it. Same story has been said about the great Wall of China.

While I am not advocating for such events to happen in today's world, I am only trying to illustrate that for progress to be made a price may have to be paid.
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by trillville(m): 3:18pm On May 04, 2016
2 topical threads were posted in the front page in the last 24 hours.

The first about lai mohammed's claim of job creation through dressing up masquerades and the other about taxi drivers in abuja earning higher incomes than bankers.

While lai's suggestion that 2000 people can be paid to dress one masquerade sounds a bit farfetched, the idea that nigerians can earn a respectable living through such a profession should not be a laughing matter. Custodians (big word for cleaners) in the developed world drive cars a good as jeep liberty. I know a particular white lady that owns one. She provides a service and gets paid big time. I know a nigerian who is a waiter and is doing extremely well for himself. I know another who delivers newspapers and is married with kids and drives a nice car.
These people work for their earnings and are not paid because their countries earn oil income so they should collect their own slice of the pie.
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by chinchum(m): 11:26am On May 05, 2016
trillville:


My issue with civil servants is that they are being paid to do nothing. If the civil servants chose to become productive bricklayers, why should any lose his or her job? We have too many white collar workers that's why graduate level unemployment is so high.

In the UK, less than 30 percent of jobs require university degrees, hence many British finish education at the ordinary diploma level, yet they live well and render quality services.

We all complain about how subsidies lead to corruption. Is it not corruption to take what belongs to everybody and give it to a few people for free without any benefit to the everybody like?

The fact that my views are different doesn't make them unrealistic. Both US and UK governments subsidise housing for their poor.

The idea of building mass housing is not just altruistic but also economically wise. If nigeria were to set up mass building projects, individuals such as cement producers, building material producers, architects, builders, labourers,cooks, etc, will all benefit directly at the same time will promote healthier standards on living reducing nigerias overall medical cost.

Mass building is not the only form on infrastructure nigeria needs. Our schools, hospitals, power plants, irrigation systems, roads, etc need to be built or rebuilt. I am advocating for a shift from paying ineffectual civil/public servants money from oil revenues to spending on infrastructure.

The South Korean government created daewoo to spur economic development. We don't produce steel yet and also have insufficient amounts of electricity. Luckily, we kickstart our economy through infrastructural projects.

As I said yesterday, considering the lack of benefits nigerians derive from oil revenues, it would be morally wrong for us to pay taxes to the Federal government only for such monies to be spent on civil/public workers who contribute little or nothing to our lives.

Finally, there is also a price to pay for whatever situation we find ourselves. Today we have poor electricity, water, health care,roads, etc. Tomorrow we may have a few hungry civil servants. Someone has to pay the price. What matters most are our long term goals of being a great nation.

Built by csar Peter the Great, St. Petersburg one of europes most beautiful cities, was built on marshy land, which was fortified with the bones of Russian brick layers and masons who built it. Same story has been said about the great Wall of China.

While I am not advocating for such events to happen in today's world, I am only trying to illustrate that for progress to be made a price may have to be paid.
Mass housing is not a bad idea, as long it comes with a fair mortgage facility. People can pay for houses for as long as 20 years. Many of the Okada riders learnt a trade, and are artisans who abandoned their trade for commercial bike operations, that is a symptom. The rootcause is not far fetched. Unemployment of graduates is not necessarily high because we have too many white collar workers, it is high because the basics that will spur creation of productive and creative jobs are missing. The unemployment rate is high, because few jobs are created compared to the teeming millions of youths that need employment. Nigeria has a median age of 18 or thereabout, meaning close to 100 million of Nigeria's 200 million are 18 years and below.

Not all civil servants are being paid for doing nothing, i think we must make fair assessment, some are actually overworked, nevertheless there can be gradual disengagement of those found to be surplus to requirement, and some parastatals or ministries can be commercialised, meaning they must make what they spend on wages and running cost.

1 Like

Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by trillville(m): 2:40pm On May 05, 2016
chinchum:
Mass housing is not a bad idea, as long it comes with a fair mortgage facility. People can pay for houses for as long as 20 years. Many of the Okada riders learnt a trade, and are artisans who abandoned their trade for commercial bike operations, that is a symptom. The rootcause is not far fetched. Unemployment of graduates is not necessarily high because we have too many white collar workers, it is high because the basics that will spur creation of productive and creative jobs are missing. The unemployment rate is high, because few jobs are created compared to the teeming millions of youths that need employment. Nigeria has a median age of 18 or thereabout, meaning close to 100 million of Nigeria's 200 million are 18 years and below.

Not all civil servants are being paid for doing nothing, i think we must make fair assessment, some are actually overworked, nevertheless there can be gradual disengagement of those found to be surplus to requirement, and some parastatals or ministries can be commercialised, meaning they must make what they spend on wages and running cost.

You are absolutely right. Not all civil servants are bad and it would be disastrous for the government to fire people indiscriminately. Government needs to sort the wheat from the chaff. luckily, this can be achieved easier with technology in this present day than in the past.

You are also right that our society doesn't create incentives for job creation. I believe it still boils down to our reliance on oil money to pay salaries and also government being the highest employer of labour. This factors out merit and hard work as the main determinants of success at the work place since earnings are not based on productivity but on oil revenues.

Take electricity as an example.
Take the nigerian electrical engineer. In universities he/she is taught to innovate and solve problems related electricity, whereas polytechnic graduate is taught to maintain and manage already created technology.

How come western countries have electricity yet our graduates have continuously failed to find an innovative solution to our electricity problems.

Are all our electrical engineers half baked? You may say our educational system has become bad. What about older electrical engineers who were trained in the good old days. We also have nigerians currently trained abroad and yet no one can come up with alternatives to improve the plight of the masses.

Funny thing is, take a serious minded nigerian trained electrical engineer to the western world where efforts are compensated and watched the magic the nigerian will perform. Nigerian graduates are performing everywhere they go and are amazingly ingenious at how they go about their jobs.

Take the doctor that discovered the effects of concussions on athletes and the nigerian that designs cars for general motors. Today, a nigerian is the general manager of the toronto raptors, the only NBA team in canada.

Nigerians in general are the highest performing black people in the united States today, yet we can't get our country to work right. It's sad! Really sad!
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by trillville(m): 2:51pm On May 05, 2016
Other related news. The Puerto Rican government, the highest employer of labour in Puerto Rico, announced this week that it was going to default on its loans. Basically, Puerto Rico is bankrupt or going bankrupt.

Unlike the nigerian government and Saudi Arabian government,the Puerto Rican government doesn't have oil to fall back on, hence it's in deep cshit.

The last administration failed to saved during the rainy days and now this government may be trying to borrow it's way to pay it's over bloated civil/public servants.

How long do we have before we also go belly up? That's the trillion naira question.
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by Emmyvans: 10:41pm On May 13, 2016
[/quote]The challenges of declining crude oil price, reduction in dollar supply, depreciated exchange rate naira and restrictions in access to foreign exchange from the official window may simply be responsible for the economic quagmire we sit in. [quote]

Nigeria's current economic challenge is mostly a foreign exchange problem. It will filter into every sector of the economy that is Forex dependent, at least through the imported PMS
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by mikolo80: 5:09am On May 14, 2016
trillville:
Oduastates
What solution have you proposed now. Agreed we have a fake economy, what should we do to correct it.
Currently, over 70 percent of expenditure is on recurrent expenses, mostly funded by oil revenues. Most of this expenditure is on payment of civil servants salaries.

How much impact do these civil servants have on the lives of ordinary nigerians?

Should the Nigerian masses pay taxes like other developed nations, to pay government workers' salaries?

Should the Federal government rationalise the civil service and then institute a tax regime? How will the labour congress accept such a policy?

Should the Federal government just sit and wait for oil prices to rise?

Why attack oni tomatoes? Don't we all deserve to have a better life?
enter farm and no you only deserve what you work for. oni tomatoes did not ''work '' (vote) for good leaders and so does not deserve anymore than she (tomato sellers usually women) gets (bad economy,poverty,misery) .so investment in farms and factory by private sector is a solution.
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by mikolo80: 5:10am On May 14, 2016
trillville:


So because there's a storm, government shouldn't build a shelter but should fold it's arms and wait for the storm to get over?

I am pro-buhari and will always be anti-jonathan but this administration needs to make tough choices, some not politically palatable, that would lead to a more progressive country.
govt won't solve anything. it is the ppl that will solve their problem
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by mikolo80: 5:19am On May 14, 2016
trillville:


Enough of this storm talk. This post may be long, please bear with me.

I see this current crisis as a big opportunity for nigeria to right it wrongs and develop into a great nation.

All across Africa, countries have better electricity supply than nigeria. Why is this?

Nigeria has a huge income disparity between its rich and it's extremely poor. Why is this?

Nigeria is rich in multiple resources yet our people continue to suffer in abject poverty. Why is this?


People tend to say we have bad leaders or that our leaders are just too corrupt. I completely disagree with this notion.

Our leaders are a product of we the citizens. Does this mean all nigerian citizens lack leadership skills and corrupt? I think not.

What we are experiencing in nigeria are classical effects of the Dutch disease. We earn revenue from natural resources, hence our government doesn't collect suitable taxes. This makes people in the government act in their own self interest. This also prevents the general public from holding their leaders accountable for their actions. Hence the country losea it's ability to develop.

Seun posted a link to a financial times article about how Norway (I believe) escaped the trap of the Dutch disease.

How do we get out of this mess? Institute a policy whereby all oil revenues are used on infrastructural projects, savings and not on paying salaries of public and civil servants. This cannot be achieved in a few years. It would probably take over 10 years to achieve this.

What this government can do is replace civil servants with manual labourers. Rather than have people who do nothing, employ people to build mass housing units for the less privileged. This will spur employment for both skilled and unskilled labour.

It would be extremely morally wrong for today's government to ask nigerian citizens to pay any additional taxes to enable government to pay civil/public servants who do little or nothing to benefit the general public.

If government were to shift it'd focus to providing infrastructure be it electricity as opposed stomach infrastructure, nigerians may be more willing to pay taxes since they will be seeing the benefits government is providing. This will also make citizens hold government to its task of further providing infrastructure thereby creating a functioning system.

PS
I am a government worker and I travelled 4 hours to get to work this morning bring the first woring day this week. I got to work around 10:30 and still came before half the members of my office. How motivated do you think I am feeling right now. I have been writing this post on office time (using my private network though), yet i will demand to get paid and complain if payments are delayed through no fault of the government. I am indeed a nigerian civil servant.

who will Bell the cat?the I. the 6 million dollar question
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by mikolo80: 5:43am On May 14, 2016
chinchum:
Mass housing is not a bad idea, as long it comes with a fair mortgage facility. People can pay for houses for as long as 20 years. Many of the Okada riders learnt a trade, and are artisans who abandoned their trade for commercial bike operations, that is a symptom. The rootcause is not far fetched. Unemployment of graduates is not necessarily high because we have too many white collar workers, it is high because the basics that will spur creation of productive and creative jobs are missing. The unemployment rate is high, because few jobs are created compared to the teeming millions of youths that need employment. Nigeria has a median age of 18 or thereabout, meaning close to 100 million of Nigeria's 200 million are 18 years and below.

Not all civil servants are being paid for doing nothing, i think we must make fair assessment, some are actually overworked, nevertheless there can be gradual disengagement of those found to be surplus to requirement, and some parastatals or ministries can be commercialised, meaning they must make what they spend on wages and running cost.
move under utilised Civil servants to Agric ministry and give them tractor
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by mikolo80: 5:46am On May 14, 2016
trillville:


You are absolutely right. Not all civil servants are bad and it would be disastrous for the government to fire people indiscriminately. Government needs to sort the wheat from the chaff. luckily, this can be achieved easier with technology in this present day than in the past.

You are also right that our society doesn't create incentives for job creation. I believe it still boils down to our reliance on oil money to pay salaries and also government being the highest employer of labour. This factors out merit and hard work as the main determinants of success at the work place since earnings are not based on productivity but on oil revenues.

Take electricity as an example.
Take the nigerian electrical engineer. In universities he/she is taught to innovate and solve problems related electricity, whereas polytechnic graduate is taught to maintain and manage already created technology.

How come western countries have electricity yet our graduates have continuously failed to find an innovative solution to our electricity problems.

Are all our electrical engineers half baked? You may say our educational system has become bad. What about older electrical engineers who were trained in the good old days. We also have nigerians currently trained abroad and yet no one can come up with alternatives to improve the plight of the masses.

Funny thing is, take a serious minded nigerian trained electrical engineer to the western world where efforts are compensated and watched the magic the nigerian will perform. Nigerian graduates are performing everywhere they go and are amazingly ingenious at how they go about their jobs.

Take the doctor that discovered the effects of concussions on athletes and the nigerian that designs cars for general motors. Today, a nigerian is the general manager of the toronto raptors, the only NBA team in canada.

Nigerians in general are the highest performing black people in the united States today, yet we can't get our country to work right. It's sad! Really sad!

cos we hate ourselves (tribalism patriotism self first)
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by trillville(m): 6:45pm On May 14, 2016
mikolo80:
govt won't solve anything. it is the ppl that will solve their problem

I can see that I have made a new friend. How is your weekend going? Nigeria will surely be better for all of us. As at this time, it is back to the farm as you have suggested.
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by mikolo80: 6:51pm On May 14, 2016
trillville:


I can see that I have made a new friend. How is your weekend going? Nigeria will surely be better for all of us. As at this time, it is back to the farm as you have suggested.
yes o. ah the struggle continues. hope you involved in politics cos ''good guys '' getting involved is only way out I see with least bloodshed

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Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by Emmyvans: 9:46pm On May 21, 2016
Hmm... NBS confirms my fear as Nigeria slides into recession...
https://www.nairaland.com/3118417/nigerias-economy-shrinks-recession-imminent
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by charger025: 7:39pm On May 27, 2016
Ministry of Labour should look into this issue:

Recently, Genesis Group Nigeria, the company that owns the Genesis Restaurant and Deluxe Cinemas chain cut workers’ salaries by various percentages, with some workers even getting a 50% pay cut and some getting sacked for no reason but “the situation of the economy”.

Yes, we all know the economy is bad but as insiders, we know how much the company makes monthly and how much of our blood and sweat is put into making those billions for them.

Sometimes we are slaved tirelessly, even till late hours without getting paid overtime (company policy) all in the name of meeting “a quota”. Note: The economy doesn’t affect the company, they increased prices of their food et al to match the situation, yet they’re cutting salaries. Even if they didn’t increase prices, they would still be making profits of over 70% on most items.

Drivers and Kitchen Staff that previously earned a meagre N30,000 now earn between N15000 – N20000 and most of them can barely afford to feed their families, not to even talk about fees, rent and other bills.

A widow who works as a staff here said one of her 2 children has to stay at home next term because she can’t afford his school fees and she’s hardly employable anywhere else. The rate at which people are being laid off is unfair & inhumane not to talk about the way staff are treated.

I’ve worked in this company for years and each day I pray to God that I find a better job at a company that values its workers. Honestly, over 95% of staff here are only here because they haven’t gotten anything better and would gladly leave at the slightest opportunity.

The company owns several restaurants but can’t feed its workers properly, the food we are given is what prisoners would reject, most times its half-cooked, excessively salty, no maggi and the worst of all, no meat and they can’t even provide water for us to drink.

I am pained, I am angry, how do I explain to my children that they can no longer have 3 square meals because “my oga at the top” is a heartless and inconsiderate man who only cares about how much he makes while neglecting the large number of families he’s destroying.

If you go to any Genesis Fast food, you’d never know of our plight because the staff are forced to put on fake smiles and pretend to customers, while suffering inside. There’s no point for people to patronize Genesis anymore when despite all the money you spend, it’s all going to the pocket of one person while we the “money generators” are treated like slaves.

We have nobody to fight for us. Anybody that opposes, gets fired instantly and their terminal benefits forfeited. We know that even if the economy gets better tomorrow, our salaries will not be restored because we work for greedy sets of human beings.

We live in a country where employers get away with all sorts of things because the system doesn’t work. A company where your boss can walk in and slap you for no reason or maybe because someone annoyed him at home, is that one company?

To all of you bringing your CVs, we here are struggling to leave. God help us all. Shalom.
Re: It's the economy, Silly!!! by Emmyvans: 9:12pm On Oct 05, 2016
How time flies

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