If oke can humbly agree to deputize Aketi then their winning will be easy and smooth

Lifestone:

Aketi lost 2012 election simply because of Tinubu.
He is a man of his own now and thats what Ondo State people want.
Mimiko is at the lowest level now and it's also a negative to have brought a candidate from the same Senatorial district with himself. Ondo Central can't produce Governor back to back.

That's not true.

In 2012, Mimiko had a decent or modest record of achievements. He was not contesting as a weak governor but as a modestly successful governor. Also, he romanced PDP but wise enough to avoid the party because he knew PDP was highly detested in SW at the time. It was even after Fayose was trying to hijack PDP structure in SW that he formally decamped. The point is there was no good reason to vote against him in 2012, party wise or performance related.

Additionally, he was running as a candidate from Ondo central where the chunk of the votes are. He held Ondo central and fight it out in Ondo North. Since Aketi, the ACN's candidate was not popular, Mimiko had a good run in Ondo North. With a combination of good run in Ondo North and Ondo Central, he won. In Ondo South, Oke won overwhelmingly to come second. He is adopting the same strategy now with a slight modification. He probably thought an Akoko person would emerge and as such was training his arsenal for Ondo South. As it is now, if the Akoko candidates--Abraham and Boroffice--are not willing to go all out for Aketi, Mimiko might even have an impressive showing in Ondo North.

Also, in 2012, GEJ was also supporting Mimiko because he didn't want Ondo to fall into ACN's hands. Was Tinubu also responsible for inability of Aketi to win in his own ward? So it was a combination of Aketi's unpopularity, GEJ's interest and Mimiko's decent performance laced with strategic political maneuvering that saw him won. It has absolutely nothing to do with Tinubu.

bayooooooo:


That's not true.

Ondo North has the following local governments:
1. Akoko North-East
2. Akoko North-West
3. Akoko South-East
4. Akoko South-West
5. Owo
6. Ose

Ondo Central
1. Akure South
2. Akure North
3. Ondo East
4. Ondo West
5. Ifedore
6. Idanre

Ondo South
1. IleOluji/Oke Igbo
2. Odigbo
3. Irele
4. Ilaje
5. Okitipupa
6. Ese odo

Ondo has eighteen (18) local governments, three senatorial districts with each having six local governments.

ile-oluji / okeigbo is ondo central. ondo South start from odigbo local govt down to ori omi side

People just think Mimiko made a mistake by picking an Akure indigen! With this and the unpopularity of Aketi in the state and the mess of PMB!APC should forget Ondo

Aketi has used his mouth to bring disaffection within the party,because of his unguided utterances.He needs to embark on serious reconciliation process if wants to win the election.

bayooooooo:


That's not true.

In 2012, Mimiko had a decent or modest record of achievements. He was not contesting as a weak governor but as a modestly successful governor. Also, he romanced PDP but wise enough to avoid the party because he knew PDP was highly detested in SW at the time. It was even after Fayose was trying to hijack PDP structure in SW that he formally decamped. The point is there was no good reason to vote again him in 2012, party wise or performance related.

Additionally, he was running as a candidate from Ondo central where the chunk of the votes are. He held Ondo central and fight it out in Ondo North. Since Aketi, the ACN's candidate was not popular, Mimiko had a good run in Ondo North. With a combination of good run in Ondo North and Ondo Central, he won. In Ondo South, Oke won overwhelmingly to come second. He is adopting the same strategy now with a slight modification. He probably thought an Akoko person would emerge and as such was training his arsenal for Ondo South. As it is now, if the Akoko candidates--Abraham and Boroffice--are not willing to go all out for Aketi, Mimiko might even have an impressive showing in Ondo North.

Also, in 2012, GEJ was also supporting Mimiko because he didn't want Ondo to fall into ACN's hands. Was Tinubu also responsible for inability of Aketi to win in his own ward? So it was a combination of Aketi's unpopularity, GEJ's interest and Mimiko's decent performance laced with strategic political maneuvering that saw him won. It has absolutely nothing to do with Tinubu.

Aketi said many things that may still work against him,the people that helped him in 2012 will not trust him again.

Aketi candidacy is a big mistake because I don't see him winning this.. Atleast people won't say Jagaban impose Abraham on them. Fair enough

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Topmath05:


ile-oluji / okeigbo is ondo central. ondo South start from odigbo local govt down to ori omi side

That's not true. What I have up there is used for electoral purposes and is corroborated by the quote below.

There are three senatorial zones made up of the 18 local government areas of the state: the north, central and south. Each of the zone comprises of six local governments. In the northern senatorial district there are Akoko North-East, Akoko North- West, Akoko South-East, Akoko South-West, Owo and Ose local governments.

The Ondo Central Senatorial District is made up of Akure South, Akure North, Ifedore, Idanre, Ondo East and Ondo West local governments while the six local government areas in the Ondo South Senatorial District are: Ile Oluji/Oke Igbo, Odigbo, Okitipupa, Irele, Ilaje and Ese Odo.

http://punchng.com/ondo-gov-race-battle-zones/

dguyindcorner:
APC already lost with this! He simply can't contest against Eyitayo...Oke, Boroffice or Abraham would have been a better choice!

You read my mind. Akeredolu is not known in ondo politics. politicians are not learning that things are changing. what has been his participation in ondo state after his defeat to mimiko? nothing. sitting down in ibadan and think the APC machinery will work for him just because mimiko led pdp has failed? I wish a different party emerges other than pdp and apc.

kahal29:


Good analysis. Borrofice has nothing to loose given the fact that his senate seat is still intact. I think Aketi is good, people know him and he is nobody's boy..... If Abraham had won people would see him as Tinubu's puppet and Mimiko would have used that to campaign against him. What do you think?

this puppet rubbish is an excuse...who would work/perform, who do that irrespective of backing...is Ambode not an example?

Amitex:
Anyone who still vote for APC in this economy recession is slowpoke and deserve to be shipped to Venezuela as modern day slaves.

the pdp they voted for in bayelsa, how are they fairing? What about ekiti?

bayooooooo:


That's not true.

Ondo North has the following local governments:
1. Akoko North-East
2. Akoko North-West
3. Akoko South-East
4. Akoko South-West
5. Owo
6. Ose

Ondo Central
1. Akure South
2. Akure North
3. Ondo East
4. Ondo West
5. Ifedore
6. Idanre

Ondo South
1. IleOluji/Oke Igbo
2. Odigbo
3. Irele
4. Ilaje
5. Okitipupa
6. Ese odo

Ondo has eighteen (18) local governments, three senatorial districts with each having six local governments.

My bad. You are correct.

bayooooooo:


That's not true.

In 2012, Mimiko had a decent or modest record of achievements. He was not contesting as a weak governor but as a modestly successful governor. Also, he romanced PDP but wise enough to avoid the party because he knew PDP was highly detested in SW at the time. It was even after Fayose was trying to hijack PDP structure in SW that he formally decamped. The point is there was no good reason to vote against him in 2012, party wise or performance related.

Additionally, he was running as a candidate from Ondo central where the chunk of the votes are. He held Ondo central and fight it out in Ondo North. Since Aketi, the ACN's candidate was not popular, Mimiko had a good run in Ondo North. With a combination of good run in Ondo North and Ondo Central, he won. In Ondo South, Oke won overwhelmingly to come second. He is adopting the same strategy now with a slight modification. He probably thought an Akoko person would emerge and as such was training his arsenal for Ondo South. As it is now, if the Akoko candidates--Abraham and Boroffice--are not willing to go all out for Aketi, Mimiko might even have an impressive showing in Ondo North.

Also, in 2012, GEJ was also supporting Mimiko because he didn't want Ondo to fall into ACN's hands. Was Tinubu also responsible for inability of Aketi to win in his own ward? So it was a combination of Aketi's unpopularity, GEJ's interest and Mimiko's decent performance laced with strategic political maneuvering that saw him won. It has absolutely nothing to do with Tinubu.

You are obviously alien to Ondo State politics.
In 2012 every man on the street sees Aketi as the stooge from Lagos and they voted massively against him. The performance of Mimiko which you raised is also a factor though, but of the sentiment.
The good thing with this primary is the wisdom of Tinubu not to brazenly rigged in favour of his candidate, a sign of a good democrat. With everybody seeing the primary election as free and fair, Aketi would not have problems having others work for him.
Also, the fair thing is for Ondo North to produce the next Governor expecially Owo who last produced Ajasin.
APC should work as a team and the deal is done.
Mimiko is weak now, and he is ready for the taken.
I am not an Aketi man o, just an analyst

Oluwabusobomi:
RIP to APC in Ondo.

Iroko will school them again as he did in 2013

Are you from Ondo State?

Topmath05:


ile-oluji / okeigbo is ondo central. ondo South start from odigbo local govt down to ori omi side

You are wrong @bayooooooo is right.

But i'm having this feeling that Olusola Oke will contest from another Party.... I can't see him working with/for Aketi cos i dont see Aketi choosing him as running mate

Congratulations, the party to produce the next governor Inshallah, Aketi ride on,please, please Akoko so as to get more votes.

Suprise

bayooooooo:


Every election is different. Tayo Alasoadura did not dismantle Mimiko, he won based on Buhari's effect. The same mimiko that could not help Jonathan also managed to win house of assembly seats when he realized his governorship seat would be threatened should APC win. Can Buhari win now if he is on ballot? He is not that popular any longer. Mimiko's choice of someone from Akure is super strategic as all politics are local. He is trying to hold Ondo Central where majority of votes are and then fight it out in Ondo South. If he spends money wisely in strategic locations, he can pull it off.

You also mentioned Abraham, Boroffice, Oke and Alasoadura working for Aketi as if it was automatic or something that could be decreed into existence. Politicians don't work for a candidate because they love the candidate or want him to win. They work for ANY candidate who can protect their INTERESTS. "what's in it for me?" is a politician's question. If he is not able to rally the so called losers, he will lose. Infact, if people like Boroffice and Alasoadura see Aketi's being a governor as threat to their senatorial seats, they would surreptitiously worked for PDP. Politicians are all about SELF INTERESTS.

I won't bet my money on him until he is able to rally the losers to share his vision.

Spot on!

Lifestone:

You are obviously alien to Ondo State politics.
In 2012 every man on the street sees Aketi as the stooge from Lagos and they vote massively against him. The performance of Mimiko which you raised is also a factor though, but of the sentiment.
The good thing with this primary is the wisdom of Tinubu not to brazenly rigged in favour of his candidate, a sign of a good democrat. With everybody seeing the primary election as free and fair, Aketi would not have problems having others work for him.
Also, the fair thing is for Ondo North to produce the next Governor expecially Owo who last produced Ajasin.
APC should work as a team and the deal is done.
Mimiko is weak now, and he is ready for the taken.
I am not an Aketi man o, just an analyst

The argument that Godfatherism doesn't work in Ondo is rooted not in facts but in sentiments. Was Awolowo not Ajasin's Godfather? And who imposed Agagu on Ondo when he defeated Adefarati if not Obasanjo? What about Adefarati and even Olumilua? The only person without a traceable godfather is Mimiko but he had to go through courts to retrieve his stolen mandate and was helped by many along the way including Tinubu. If Ondo is truly against Godfatherism, Abraham wouldn't have scored up to 50 yet he was defeated with less than 40 votes and the actual winner didn't even win 25% of total delegates votes. If a politician outside Ondo state could support a completely unknown politician and the results turned out the way it was, I would describe the politician as extremely powerful. In my opinion, Aketi won a keenly contested election, not that Ondo rejected godfatherism. Sometimes we elevate sentiment into hard facts. Plus, to stand a chance of winning the general election, he still needs to work with the so called defeated Godfather.

In 2012, Mimiko was popular. People had sympathy for ACN but had no real reasons to vote against Mimiko, more so when he was not in the detested PDP. Generally, in politics, it is difficult to defeat an incumbent, so contesting against a modestly successful governor and losing is not tantamount to rejection of Godfatherism. More so when Aketi, a candidate challenging an incumbent, was not popular and he even performed poorly in debates. On personal evaluation, no one could claim Aketi was better than Mimiko in 2012. So how would a loss of such a candidate be a reflection of hatred for Tinubu? Ultimately, he lost his own polling unit. Should we blame Tinubu for that too?

Mimiko of 2016 is weaker than that of 2012 but reality is Mimiko is not running. Jegede is the one running. People will look at Jegede and Aketi and make their choice. But Jegede will be using Mimiko's political machinery which he controls statewide. However, results of APC's primary election show Aketic only control APC machinery in Ondo Central. It is thus logical if he is not able to rally people that control the machinery in Ondo North and Ondo South, he is not likely to win. That doesn't sound like a rocket science.

The best materials APC could have put forward was Olusola Oke or Senator Boroffice. Akeredolu won't win 6 local governments on November 26...
Akeredolu would have came 3rd in an APC primaries devoid of external Influence.Tinubu's factor made Boroffice lose a chunk of Akoko votes..
It's not fair really,Tinubu should be warned to stop destroying people's political career and aspirations. Boroffice and Oke lost cos of himIt's not fair really,Tinubu should be warned to stop destroying people's political career and aspirations. Boroffice and Oke lost cos of him..

All the over 600 votes scored by Abraham would have been normally shared between Boroffice(especially) and Olusola Oke.

The point is will Tinubu ever forgive Aketi with all he said. Tinubu never forgives. Aketi made a mistake by saying all he said against Tinubu. I see Tinubu cutting a deal with Mimiko.

dabimzy:
oke or Abraham would have been a better choice.APC has made a mistake again.This is a typical example of united we stand, divided we fall.They could have come together and picked Oke or Abraham.

If Abraham had won, u guys wud hv still shouted Tinubu's name and blaming APC for imposition of candidate.
If Oke had won, u guys wud hv still said that it will be an easy defeat since He is a PDP defector.
Its a democratic process and the best candidate has won.
Aketi can win the Ondo contest considering the awaiting burial rites of the PDP.
All APC needs is the cooperation and support of all the other candidates during the campaigns.
They should all campaign for the party as if they were the ones that won and i assure u, APC will win Ondo

bayooooooo:


Often, many confuse primary with general election. If Aketi doesn't manage well the fallout of his victory, he will lose the general election.

1. I don't see Aketi winning Ondo Central which has the chunks of the votes. Mimiko is from Ondo town and will do everything possible to win the town with a reasonable margin. With Eyitayo being from Akure, Mimiko will also win the capital city. Even recently, Akeredolu gave an interesting interview where he claimed Akure people are minority in Akure. Can you imagine? He is not even planning to win the town. In a free and fair election, I don't see APC winning Ondo central with the two key towns firmly in the hands of PDP.

2. Aketi is from Ondo North which is where the Akokos are. Infact, had Boroffice (471) and Abraham(635) worked together, they would have defeated Aketi(669). Even though he won, Aketi doesn't look, to me, as being in control of APC machinery in Ondo North. He still needs Boroffice and Abraham to work with him. Now that's where it gets interesting because all the three: Aketi, Abraham and Borrofice are in a way allies of Tinubu. I have a feeling that apart from Buhari, the only person who can actually bring the three together to work in harmony is Tinubu. The margin of Aketi's victory is so small that the machinery of his government can actually be controlled by the so called losers. And that's the nature of politics. If they work together, APC will win Ondo North in a landslide. Otherwise, it's all over for Aketi.

3. All things being equal, Ondo South is where the election will be won or lost. Since both Boroffice who is already a senator and Abraham are from Ondo North, the same senatorial district as Aketi, I don't see them being running mates. And it will be a monumental strategic mistake to choose a running mate from Ondo Central. Would Tinubu tie his support of rallying Abraham and Boroffice for the candidate to choosing the running mate? And would the running mate be Akintelure or Olusola Oke, both politically toxic picks for Aketi? If he doesn't grant enough concessions, he stands the risk of losing the election. If he grants too much, he will win but government machinery will not be in his hands.

I think APC needs to rewrite its primary rules such that top three candidates should advance until a candidate wins 50% of the entire delegates.

It's obvious that you don't live in Ondo and you don't know anything about the state.

PDP will have a better chance of winning if Mimiko is out of PDP, I can assure you that Mimiko's presence means most civil servants won't vote for his candidate.

APC on the other hand will have to convince the people that Bubu misdoing on the federal level won't hinder the state from reaching her electoral mandate.

Everyone in the state hate Mimiko, the guy second tenure was terrible.

kahal29:


I am not from Ondo but seems you are very grounded in the politics there going from your analysis. Have a question for you..... Who do you think should have won the primaries and Why?

The guy is not well grounded. The only reason why PDP lost in Ondo presidential election was people hate for Mimiko.

With what is happening in the country, PDP can take advantage of it if Mimiko is absent from the party.

bayooooooo:


The argument that Godfatherism doesn't work in Ondo is rooted not in facts but in sentiments. Was Awolowo not Ajasin's Godfather? And who imposed Agagu on Ondo when he defeated Adefarati if not Obasanjo? What about Adefarati and even Olumilua? The only person without a traceable godfather is Mimiko but he had to go through courts to retrieve his stolen mandate and was helped by many along the way including Tinubu. If Ondo is truly against Godfatherism, Abraham wouldn't have scored up to 50 yet he was defeated with less than 40 votes and the actual winner didn't even win 25% of total delegates votes. If a politician outside Ondo state could support a completely unknown politician and the results turned out the way it was, I would describe the politician as extremely powerful. In my opinion, Aketi won a keenly contested election, not that Ondo rejected godfatherism. Sometimes we elevate sentiment into hard facts. Plus, to stand a chance of winning the general election, he still needs to work with the so called defeated Godfather.

In 2012, Mimiko was popular. People had sympathy for ACN but had no real reasons to vote against Mimiko, more so when he was not in the detested PDP. Generally, in politics, it is difficult to defeat an incumbent, so contesting against a modestly successful governor and losing is not tantamount to rejection of Godfatherism. More so when Aketi, a candidate challenging an incumbent, was not popular and he even performed poorly in debates. On personal evaluation, no one could claim Aketi was better than Mimiko in 2012. So how would a loss of such a candidate be a reflection of hatred for Tinubu? Ultimately, he lost his own polling unit. Should we blame Tinubu for that too?

Mimiko of 2016 is weaker than that of 2012 but reality is Mimiko is not running. Jegede is the one running. People will look at Jegede and Aketi and make their choice. But Jegede will be using Mimiko's political machinery which he controls statewide. However, results of APC's primary election show Aketic only control APC machinery in Ondo Central. It is thus logical if he is not able to rally people that control the machinery in Ondo North and Ondo South, he is not likely to win. That doesn't sound like a rocket science.

Your analysis only mirrored already known outcomes, Aketi in 2012 was anointed at Bourdillon Ikoyi and the peace meeting was taken to Oshogbo by Aregbesola, the outcome was obvious. It's better for Tinubu's annoited candidate to be defeated at the primary than at the general election.
Aketi of 2012 relied on Tinubu to secure the primary while Aketi of 2016 worked his ass out to secure the mandate of the delegates. If he is not popular as you are attempting to say here how was he able to defeat the Godfather's candidate even if by one vote?
It's in Olusola Oke, Tinubu and other's interest to work for the success of APC because the alternative is unthinkable for them.
Ondo State knows Awolowo but do not know Tinubu, that's the fact.

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Bro, don't you know what GOLF means or this is a 419 scam?
If there is no golf course as part of the estate or around it, then you better stop deceiving people with what you are selling. Okay?

bayooooooo:


Every election is different. Tayo Alasoadura did not dismantle Mimiko, he won based on Buhari's effect. The same mimiko that could not help Jonathan also managed to win house of assembly seats when he realized his governorship seat would be threatened should APC win. Can Buhari win now if he is on ballot? He is not that popular any longer. Mimiko's choice of someone from Akure is super strategic as all politics are local. He is trying to hold Ondo Central where majority of votes are and then fight it out in Ondo South. If he spends money wisely in strategic locations, he can pull it off.

You also mentioned Abraham, Boroffice, Oke and Alasoadura working for Aketi as if it was automatic or something that could be decreed into existence. Politicians don't work for a candidate because they love the candidate or want him to win. They work for ANY candidate who can protect their INTERESTS. "what's in it for me?" is a politician's question. If he is not able to rally the so called losers, he will lose. Infact, if people like Boroffice and Alasoadura see Aketi's being a governor as threat to their senatorial seats, they would surreptitiously worked for PDP. Politicians are all about SELF INTERESTS.

I won't bet my money on him until he is able to rally the losers to share his vision.

Ur analysis is in dept and precise
But Aketi is not a grass root politician even though mimiko has lost touch with d people.
If Aketi should ignore tinubu's prowress he will loose d gub election
D contest is keenly btwn mimiko And Aketi
I blv Aketi will want to stand his ground SNC he got d ticket without tinubu's support

However, d delegates turn their back against Abraham cos of tinubu imposition
Also,it was a open secret vote

Finally,d people are now wise and prudent
For Aketi,he has a lot of homework to do.

bayooooooo:


I think Boroffice would have been the best choice. He is actually the only one who has contested and won election twice. Even from the results, one can see that if Tinubu withdrew its support from Abraham, he(Boroffice) would have, on the strength of Ondo North delegates alone, won the primary. Besides, he has the qualifications and he actually left Mimiko when ACN was not even in power or in a position to win. I am actually at loss why Tinubu did not support him in the primary.

From my own perspective, Aketi won on the strength of Ondo Central delegates but he can't win the senatorial district in general election. Olusola Oke won Ondo South delegates overwhelmingly but there would be clashes between him and Aketi if he manages to emerge as running mate.

These are my projections:

1. Boroffice will retain his senate seat but also nominate commissioners from parts of Akoko.
2. Aketi would promise Olusola Oke SSG or a position where Aketi can fire him if his stature begins to grow too much. But it would be a mistake to choose him as a running mate.
3. What happens to Abraham and Tinubu interests? Give them some commissioner slots and the running mate on one condition that Akintelure is not chosen. Tinubu will get Abraham a federal appointment somewhere and possibly fix Akintelure somewhere too. He will also nominate the running mate from Ondo South.
4. He needs to promise Tayo Alasoadura a commissioner slot and a support for his return to senate in 2019
5.Other interests that actually worked for him from Ondo Central can be pacified with either commissioner slots or board appointments.

Honestly, do you know that Borofice senatorial districts only see electricity 2 hours in 5 months ? Borofice won't even win Akoko, even the road to is house is bad. People won't vote for any present political holder.

dorothy111:


It's obvious that you don't live in Ondo and you don't know anything about the state.

PDP will have a better chance of winning if Mimiko is out of PDP, I can assure you that Mimiko's presence means most civil servants won't vote for his candidate.

APC on the other hand will have to convince the people that Bubu misdoing on the federal level won't hinder the state from reaching her electoral mandate.

Everyone in the state hate Mimiko, the guy second tenure was terrible.

Ask yourself, can Mimiko really leave PDP and for who to take over? Your proposition is unrealistic. I know he is not popular but the problem confronting civil servants is not exclusive to Ondo. Almost all states are owning salary and the downturn in economy can actually be blamed on Buhari.

Two, even though APC is in power, it is not well funded because Buhari is not your typical president that moves funds from NNPC to party accounts. So money is a big factor and it is indeed possible for PDP to outspend APC in this election. In this economy, and like I stated before, if Mimiko spends money strategically in some locations he can pull it off.

dabimzy:
oke or Abraham would have been a better choice.APC has made a mistake again.This is a typical example of united we stand, divided we fall.They could have come together and picked Oke or Abraham.

And you want some people here to start shouting tinubu is imposing candidate on them. They should have selected the person with the best shot at winning. But you know Nigerians na. They'll chamge it to something else. Then they'll start cursing tinubu and Buhari.