dorothy111:

Honestly, do you know that Borofice senatorial districts only see electricity 2 hours in 5 months ? Borofice won't even win Akoko, even the road to is house is bad. People won't vote for any present political holder.

So because the road to Boroffice house is bad, his people are more likely to vote for someone in Ondo South than him? And the 471 delegates he won came from the moon? All politics are local and all things being equal, Akoko people are more likely to vote for Akoko man than Akure one. More so, Akoko people are more likely to trust an Akoko man to fix their bad roads than someone from either Akure or Ondo South.

Babatundecash:
Bros,Forget the analysis....did you know mimiko with federal might and Pdp campaign chairman sw zone during the general election could not help Jonathan and Pdp with a win in his home town which is Ondo....Mimiko and Eyitayo lose convincely the Ondo central to sen.Tayo Alasoadura.....As at presently APC control Ondo central in both house of senate and rep......this Job is not for Aketi alone but including strong political gladiators like Chief oke from Ilaje,Boroffice,Abraham,Alasoadura(the man who dismantle both mimiko and Jegede at ondo central)Albena and alot to mention.....mehn!!! The non-popular Eyitayo is a goner......

You're very correct. Mimiko will cause PDP to lose. My fear for Aketi is the present state of the country, they might use that against him but considering that civil servants want Mimiko out, Aketi is the best they can produce.

bayooooooo:


Every election is different. Tayo Alasoadura did not dismantle Mimiko, he won based on Buhari's effect. The same mimiko that could not help Jonathan also managed to win house of assembly seats when he realized his governorship seat would be threatened should APC win. Can Buhari win now if he is on ballot? He is not that popular any longer. Mimiko's choice of someone from Akure is super strategic as all politics are local. He is trying to hold Ondo Central where majority of votes are and then fight it out in Ondo South. If he spends money wisely in strategic locations, he can pull it off.

You also mentioned Abraham, Boroffice, Oke and Alasoadura working for Aketi as if it was automatic or something that could be decreed into existence. Politicians don't work for a candidate because they love the candidate or want him to win. They work for ANY candidate who can protect their INTERESTS. "what's in it for me?" is a politician's question. If he is not able to rally the so called losers, he will lose. Infact, if people like Boroffice and Alasoadura see Aketi's being a governor as threat to their senatorial seats, they would surreptitiously worked for PDP. Politicians are all about SELF INTERESTS.

I won't bet my money on him until he is able to rally the losers to share his vision.

APC didn't win presidential election because of Buhari effect, APC won because people hate Mimiko. Some teachers only got January salary recently. Owo poly is on strike, AAUA is on strike, Doctors aren't smiling either.

You don't live in Ondo, that I know for sure.

bayooooooo:


Often, many confuse primary with general election. If Aketi doesn't manage well the fallout of his victory, he will lose the general election.

1. I don't see Aketi winning Ondo Central which has the chunks of the votes. Mimiko is from Ondo town and will do everything possible to win the town with a reasonable margin. With Eyitayo being from Akure, Mimiko will also win the capital city. Even recently, Akeredolu gave an interesting interview where he claimed Akure people are minority in Akure. Can you imagine? He is not even planning to win the town. In a free and fair election, I don't see APC winning Ondo central with the two key towns firmly in the hands of PDP.

2. Aketi is from Ondo North which is where the Akokos are. Infact, had Boroffice (471) and Abraham(635) worked together, they would have defeated Aketi(669). Even though he won, Aketi doesn't look, to me, as being in control of APC machinery in Ondo North. He still needs Boroffice and Abraham to work with him. Now that's where it gets interesting because all the three: Aketi, Abraham and Borrofice are in a way allies of Tinubu. I have a feeling that apart from Buhari, the only person who can actually bring the three together to work in harmony is Tinubu. The margin of Aketi's victory is so small that the machinery of his government can actually be controlled by the so called losers. And that's the nature of politics. If they work together, APC will win Ondo North in a landslide. Otherwise, it's all over for Aketi.

3. All things being equal, Ondo South is where the election will be won or lost. Since both Boroffice who is already a senator and Abraham are from Ondo North, the same senatorial district as Aketi, I don't see them being running mates. And it will be a monumental strategic mistake to choose a running mate from Ondo Central. Would Tinubu tie his support of rallying Abraham and Boroffice for the candidate to choosing the running mate? And would the running mate be Akintelure or Olusola Oke, both politically toxic picks for Aketi? If he doesn't grant enough concessions, he stands the risk of losing the election. If he grants too much, he will win but government machinery will not be in his hands.

I think APC needs to rewrite its primary rules such that top three candidates should advance until a candidate wins 50% of the entire delegates.

Mesmerizing analysis bro. Are you from Ondo State?

dabimzy:
oke or Abraham would have been a better choice.APC has made a mistake again.This is a typical example of united we stand, divided we fall.They could have come together and picked Oke or Abraham.

I thought so many people in here are against Abraham because they believe he is Tinubu's preferred candidate,
I am astonished to see sympathy comments for the same Abraham, that he will be a better candidate to Aketi.

it is well.

I wish Aketi success at the polls

bayooooooo:


Every election is different. Tayo Alasoadura did not dismantle Mimiko, he won based on Buhari's effect. The same mimiko that could not help Jonathan also managed to win house of assembly seats when he realized his governorship seat would be threatened should APC win. Can Buhari win now if he is on ballot? He is not that popular any longer. Mimiko's choice of someone from Akure is super strategic as all politics are local. He is trying to hold Ondo Central where majority of votes are and then fight it out in Ondo South. If he spends money wisely in strategic locations, he can pull it off.

You also mentioned Abraham, Boroffice, Oke and Alasoadura working for Aketi as if it was automatic or something that could be decreed into existence. Politicians don't work for a candidate because they love the candidate or want him to win. They work for ANY candidate who can protect their INTERESTS. "what's in it for me?" is a politician's question. If he is not able to rally the so called losers, he will lose. Infact, if people like Boroffice and Alasoadura see Aketi's being a governor as threat to their senatorial seats, they would surreptitiously worked for PDP. Politicians are all about SELF INTERESTS.

I won't bet my money on him until he is able to rally the losers to share his vision.

Do you know that Mimiko dismissed a lot of workers in AAUA immediately after his second term election because their open support for Aketi. Presently, AAUA NASU Chapter has been dissolved for a long time. Trust me, these people are hoping for Aketi to restore the Union and their jobs.

Aketi all the way, even though ain't voting.

Of all the aspirants, APC, PDP, SDP, LP, etc.
The strongest name is Agunloye (SDP)
Remember Mimiko first term, contesting against Agagu, Ondo has never been by party, but by aspirant.

bayooooooo:


The argument that Godfatherism doesn't work in Ondo is rooted not in facts but in sentiments. Was Awolowo not Ajasin's Godfather? And who imposed Agagu on Ondo when he defeated Adefarati if not Obasanjo? What about Adefarati and even Olumilua? The only person without a traceable godfather is Mimiko but he had to go through courts to retrieve his stolen mandate and was helped by many along the way including Tinubu. If Ondo is truly against Godfatherism, Abraham wouldn't have scored up to 50 yet he was defeated with less than 40 votes and the actual winner didn't even win 25% of total delegates votes. If a politician outside Ondo state could support a completely unknown politician and the results turned out the way it was, I would describe the politician as extremely powerful. In my opinion, Aketi won a keenly contested election, not that Ondo rejected godfatherism. Sometimes we elevate sentiment into hard facts. Plus, to stand a chance of winning the general election, he still needs to work with the so called defeated Godfather.

In 2012, Mimiko was popular. People had sympathy for ACN but had no real reasons to vote against Mimiko, more so when he was not in the detested PDP. Generally, in politics, it is difficult to defeat an incumbent, so contesting against a modestly successful governor and losing is not tantamount to rejection of Godfatherism. More so when Aketi, a candidate challenging an incumbent, was not popular and he even performed poorly in debates. On personal evaluation, no one could claim Aketi was better than Mimiko in 2012. So how would a loss of such a candidate be a reflection of hatred for Tinubu? Ultimately, he lost his own polling unit. Should we blame Tinubu for that too?

Mimiko of 2016 is weaker than that of 2012 but reality is Mimiko is not running. Jegede is the one running. People will look at Jegede and Aketi and make their choice. But Jegede will be using Mimiko's political machinery which he controls statewide. However, results of APC's primary election show Aketic only control APC machinery in Ondo Central. It is thus logical if he is not able to rally people that control the machinery in Ondo North and Ondo South, he is not likely to win. That doesn't sound like a rocket science.

spot on. I love your analysis. With the look of things, Olusola Oke can contest under another party. He is a strong politician and has full support of people from ondo south. If he does? Do you think he can will the general elections come November?

Lifestone:

Your analysis only mirrored already known outcomes, Aketi in 2012 was anointed at Bourdillon Ikoyi and the peace meeting was taken to Oshogbo by Aregbesola, the outcome was obvious. It's better for Tinubu's annoited candidate to be defeated at the primary than at the general election.
Aketi of 2012 relied on Tinubu to secure the primary while Aketi of 2016 worked his ass out to secure the mandate of the delegates. If he is not popular as you are attempting to say here how was he able to defeat the Godfather's candidate even if by one vote?
It's in Olusola Oke, Tinubu and other's interest to work for the success of APC because the alternative is unthinkable for them.
Ondo State knows Awolowo but do not know Tinubu, that's the fact.

Your argument is rich in opinions but short of facts. Aketi was not popular in 2012 and lost partly because of that. A popular candidate would have at least managed to win his polling unit but he did not.

2016 is a different year, he has raised his game but he is still not popular, at least in my opinion. Winning the ticket is a great feat but winning less than 25% of total delegates votes available is a source of concern. It shows he doesn't control the party machinery which exactly underscores my point that the assertion that godfatherism has been defeated is a ruse because he still needs the same man to navigate the general election.

Okay. Awolowo was known, but Tinubu is not known. Did you also know Obasanjo?

Tinubu can even work for Jegede and get him to cross to APC if that's where his interests will be protected. After all, governors crossed from PPA to PDP and APGA to APC. It's an illusion to think because Tinubu and Oke are APC, they are bound to work for Aketi. They will only work for him if he can meet their INTERESTS.

Yea which means a third force must emerge. I suspect Agunloye with all his grassroot might spring a surprise.

dorothy111:


You're very correct. Mimiko will cause PDP to lose. My fear for Aketi is the present state of the country, they might use that against him but considering that civil servants want Mimiko out, Aketi is the best they can produce.

dorothy111:


APC didn't win presidential election because of Buhari effect, APC won because people hate Mimiko. Some teachers only got January salary recently. Owo poly is on strike, AAUA is on strike, Doctors aren't smiling either.

You don't live in Ondo, that I know for sure.

I understand that Mimiko, at the moment, is not popular but even a complete political neophyte knew APC won Ondo in 2015 presidential election because Buhari was on ballot. And many people that won elections both in the south and north wouldn't have if not for Buhari. If you don't know this, I don't think we should be having this conversation.

Are you saying they voted against Mimiko in presidential election but for him in House of Assembly elections? When it was Buhari's turn, they hated Mimiko, but when it was the turn of people that could remove Mimiko, they showed him love?

bayooooooo:


So because the road to Boroffice house is bad, his people are more likely to vote for someone in Ondo South than him? And the 471 delegates he won came from the moon? All politics are local and all things being equal, Akoko people are more likely to vote for Akoko man than Akure one. More so, Akoko people are more likely to trust an Akoko man to fix their bad roads than someone from either Akure or Ondo South.

471 votes from delegate will amount to nothing in polls, people will still vote base on sentiments and convictions, and because I currently lives in Akungba, and own a house in Ondo town, I can tell you that Borofice can't win $hit. The whole of Akoko federal roads are bad, from Owo to Akungba to Isua, to Ogbagi, no electricity either.

Akokos are tired of rice and beans politics which they are known for.

Borofice is a wrong choice.

Topmath05:


ile-oluji / okeigbo is ondo central. ondo South start from odigbo local govt down to ori omi side

you are wrong, Ile oluji/Oke-igbo is in Ondo South.

bayooooooo:


I understand that Mimiko, at the moment, is not popular but even a complete political neophyte knew APC won Ondo in 2015 presidential election because Buhari was on ballot. And many people that won elections both in the south and north wouldn't have if not for Buhari. If you don't know this, I don't think we should be having this conversation.

Are you saying they voted against Mimiko in presidential election but for him in House of Assembly elections? When it was Buhari's turn, they hated Mimiko, but when it was the turn of people that could remove Mimiko, they showed him love?

Prior to the presidential election, Mimiko was still the leader of LP, then decamped back to PDP, at that point there exist two PDP factions. In the end, Mimiko contributions favors Buhari.

Do you live in Ondo state? If yes, where?

dorothy111:


471 votes from delegate will amount to nothing in polls, people will still vote base on sentiments and convictions, and because I currently lives in Akungba, and own a house in Ondo town, I can tell you that Borofice can't win $hit. The whole of Akoko federal roads are bad, from Owo to Akungba to Isua, to Ogbagi, no electricity either.

Akokos are tired of rice and beans politics which they are known for.

Borofice is a wrong choice.

If Boroffice without Godfather's support can, on his own, muster 471 votes even in a contest against another strong aspirant from his zone, please give him credit. He can't get more grassroot than that.

All the things you are blaming Boroffice for are beyond him. He can't fix roads nor electricity since he is just a senator, not governor.

dorothy111:


Prior to the presidential election, Mimiko was still the leader of LP, then decamped back to PDP, at that point there exist two PDP factions. In the end, Mimiko contributions favors Buhari.

Do you live in Ondo state? If yes, where?

That's not true. There were factions in PDP because PDP structure was given to Mimiko but even members that were not happy still WORKED for Goodluck Jonathan. As a matter of fact, other parties like SDP were also brought on board to work for PDP in presidential election. There were no favorable contributions from Mimiko to Buhari's victory. He actually worked against Buhari.

bayooooooo:


If Boroffice without Godfather's support can, on his own, muster 471 votes even in a contest against another strong aspirant from his zone, please give him credit. He can't get more grassroot than that.

All the things you are blaming Boroffice for are beyond him. He can't fix roads nor electricity since he is just a senator, not governor.

Yes he can't fix them but his job portfolio is to attract federal government presence to his senatorial districts which he failed immersedly.

I believe Aketi is their best candidate, that explains why he won the primary.

Lifestone:

Aketi lost 2012 election simply because of Tinubu.
He is a man of his own now and thats what Ondo State people want.
Mimiko is at the lowest level now and it's also a negative to have brought a candidate from the same Senatorial district with himself. Ondo Central can't produce Governor back to back.

You are making sense my bro. Pls help classify these persons according to their senatorial zone....

Mimiko, Jegede, Aketi, Oke, Borofice, Alasodora, kekemeke and Abraham

Rotimi111123:
Yea which means a third force must emerge. I suspect Agunloye with all his grassroot might spring a surprise.

Abeg Agunloye should go and sit down. The time he should have become the Governor has gone. He is a confused politician.

bayooooooo:


That's not true. There were factions in PDP because PDP structure was given to Mimiko but even members that were not happy still WORKED for Goodluck Jonathan. As a matter of fact, other parties like SDP were also brought on board to work for PDP in presidential election. There were no favorable contributions from Mimiko to Buhari's victory. He actually worked against Buhari.

If Olusola Oke came second in the governorship election as PDP candidate, why did he left PDP ? Mimiko presence influenced that. Mimiko is a blessing to APC in Ondo politics, especially in Ondo town.

You don't live here, I don't expect you to know. All you know is from news channels.

When people said even if BUBU present a NEPA bill as is certificate, they will still vote him, that isn't because he is better, they are just sick of GEJ. Same issue with Mimiko, they are sick of him.

I'm very sure Olusola Oke will still contest under another party.... then it will make things to be more interesting

bayooooooo:


Your argument is rich in opinions but short of facts. Aketi was not popular in 2012 and lost partly because of that. A popular candidate would have at least managed to win his polling unit but he did not.

2016 is a different year, he has raised his game but he is still not popular, at least in my opinion. Winning the ticket is a great feat but winning less than 25% of total delegates votes available is a source of concern. It shows he doesn't control the party machinery which exactly underscores my point that the assertion that godfatherism has been defeated is a ruse because he still needs the same man to navigate the general election.

Okay. Awolowo was known, but Tinubu is not known. Did you also know Obasanjo?

Tinubu can even work for Jegede and get him to cross to APC if that's where his interests will be protected. After all, governors crossed from PPA to PDP and APGA to APC. It's an illusion to think because Tinubu and Oke are APC, they are bound to work for Aketi. They will only work for him if he can meet their INTERESTS.

So if you are to advice Aketi what and what does he need to do in order to win the Gubernatorial Election.

dorothy111:


If Olusola Oke came second in the governorship election as PDP candidate, why did he left PDP ? Mimiko presence influenced that. Mimiko is a blessing to APC in Ondo politics, especially in Ondo town.

You don't live here, I don't expect you to know. All you know is from news channels.

When people said even if BUBU present a NEPA bill as is certificate, they will still vote him, that isn't because he is better, they are just sick of GEJ. Same issue with Mimiko, they are sick of him.

You are actually clueless. Olusola Oke left PDP only after Jonathan was defeated in presidential election. Both Olusola Oke and Mimiko were in PDP pre-presidential election and worked for Jonathan. How did that favor Buhari?

Why wouldn't he leave? He was supposed to be the leader of PDP but the structure was taken from him and handed to Mimiko. And when Jonathan lost the election, what was there for him in PDP? To be Mimiko's commissioner? Or where would the federal appointment to mitigate his loss come from? Politicians are driven by interests; his interests were no longer realizable in PDP, so he left.

Whether people were sick of GEJ or love Buhari, how was a vote for Buhari driven by hatred for Mimiko as you have asserted? Buhari's popularity shortly before the presidential election was electrifying and many actually voted APC in all ballot just because of him. That was the Buhari effect that flew over your head.

In your warped mind, one needs to live in government house at Alagbaka to be able to discuss politics of Ondo state.

This is good news because nobody will shout imposition, hence there will be no cause for them not to work together as a united party and win the the election.

Ok now it is now time for Mimiko's loyalty to PDP to be tested...

bayooooooo:


You are actually clueless. Olusola Oke left PDP only after Jonathan was defeated in presidential election. Both Olusola Oke and Mimiko were in PDP pre-presidential election and worked for Jonathan. How did that favor Buhari?

Why wouldn't he leave? He was supposed to be the leader of PDP but the structure was taken from him and handed to Mimiko. And when Jonathan lost the election, what was there for him in PDP? To be Mimiko's commissioner? Or where would the federal appointment to mitigate his loss come from? Politicians are driven by interests; his interests were no longer realizable in PDP, so he left.

Whether people were sick of GEJ or love Buhari, how was a vote for Buhari driven by hatred for Mimiko as you have asserted? Buhari's popularity shortly before the presidential election was electrifying and many actually voted APC in all ballot just because of him. That was the Buhari effect that flew over your head.

In your warped mind, one needs to live in government house at Alagbaka to be able to discuss politics of Ondo state.

Yes, you need to live in Ondo to actually know, the dailies are feeding you with what you want to hear.

Oh, you think Oke and Mimiko worked together? Even though Ilaje is the stronghold of PDP, yet they managed to win APC by less than 500 votes, in the presidential election.

It's not assumption, it is fact that Mimiko's presence in PDP contributed to GEJ failure in Ondo state - fact!

Put a phone call to anyone you know in Ondo, and ask to tell you about Mimiko.
Happy Sunday!

IrradiatoR:


I thought so many people in here are against Abraham because they believe he is Tinubu's preferred candidate,
I am astonished to see sympathy comments for the same Abraham, that he will be a better candidate to Aketi.

it is well.

I wish Aketi success at the polls

it seems you are now here ? You should know by now that some people won't support anything tinubu cos they hate him, not because his candidate is not competent.

dorothy111:


If Olusola Oke came second in the governorship election as PDP candidate, why did he left PDP ? Mimiko presence influenced that. Mimiko is a blessing to APC in Ondo politics, especially in Ondo town.

You don't live here, I don't expect you to know. All you know is from news channels.

When people said even if BUBU present a NEPA bill as is certificate, they will still vote him, that isn't because he is better, they are just sick of GEJ. Same issue with Mimiko, they are sick of him.

Stop spreading falsehood,the people are sick of Mimiko but they voted his candidates in d house of assembly elections? The only reason apc won d presidential election in Ondo is because of Buhari and Osibanjo,but the people are wiser now

From my calculation,aketi would win although boroffice or abraham would have been better products.with the transparent manner the apc primaries went,I see aketi winning ondo.he would win the 6 lgas in ondo north by a wide margin.in ondo central,he would at least win one or 2 lgas with a slim margin(ifedore and idanre).in ondo south with the support of oke,he can win at least 3 or 4 lgas with a slim margin.pdp would only win in akure land,ondo land and 2 or 3 lgas in the south and would be undone in the northern zone

kahal29:


You are making sense my bro. Pls help classify these persons according to their senatorial zone....

Mimiko, Jegede, Aketi, Oke, Borofice, Alasodora, kekemeke and Abraham

Ondo North
Aketi
Boroface
Abraham

Ondo Central
Mimiko
Jegede
Alasoadura

Ondo South
Oke
Kekemeke

In the opinion of Mimiko, he wants Central to succeed him same place with him

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Stop spreading falsehood,the people are sick of Mimiko but they voted his candidates in d house of assembly elections? The only reason apc won d presidential election in Ondo is because of Buhari and Osibanjo,but the people are wiser now

Bro that guy is right o
Mimiko was popular then, but now I learnt he has burnt all the goodwill

FagsamPHP:
I'm very sure Olusola Oke will still contest under another party.... then it will make things to be more interesting

He will not and if that happens, you can begin to congratulate Aketi