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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Religion / Doing Good Deeds Emerges As Optimal Choice of Religion by Statistical Analysis (903 Views)
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Doing Good Deeds Emerges As Optimal Choice of Religion by Statistical Analysis by Nobody: 11:01am On Sep 15, 2016 |
So. . . I had seen a lot of Christians here use the Pascal's wager argument, which is highly fallacious, to say the least. Today I happened to stumble upon an expanded version, which was less fallacious, and a brilliant analysis which showed eventually that choosing to do good deeds while you're alive is the safest way to go. By our evolved morality, we understand that 'good deeds' refers to whatever is best for humanity as a whole. Remember that the optimal choice is based on how lenient they are to unbelievers, and Christian fundamentalism was in dead heat with good deeds. This made me laugh, it only shows how wicked the supposed Christian god is. . . statistically speaking, he's even more evil than Allah in his punishment to the slightest mistake. Doesn't sound like a god I'd want to serve. Good Deeds emerged as the optimal choice later on, and mostly because most religions and their gods are nice to people who, although unbelievers, lived a good life. So I'll be posting extracts from the ablysis, along with my commentaries. Stay Tuned. Btw, for those who don't know what Pascal's wager is, here is the simplified, fallacious version:
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Re: Doing Good Deeds Emerges As Optimal Choice of Religion by Statistical Analysis by Nobody: 11:11am On Sep 15, 2016 |
Though the results depend on a number of assumptions, in many cases Christian Fundamentalism is the clear winner. Under other circumstances, Good Deeds can be the way to go. Finally, when we take reincarnation into account (i.e. playing the game more than once), we see that a mixed strategy involving either Fundamental Christianity or Good Deeds, with a slight probability of Hinduism, Buddhism, or other reincarnating faiths is optimal. Commentary: Apart from the technical gibberish (lol), we can see how Christian Fundamentalism was picked even before calculations as the clear winner with the most evil, merciless god of all existing religions, there by the safest way to go ![]() It stemmed from the use of 'Islamic fundamentalists' to describe terrorists who commit evil in the name of Islam. Let's just call Christian fundamentalists the Christian version. An example is Westboro Baptist church. . . Or the Christians that go shoot up abortion clinics because its against their practices. I prefer to take the other factors into consideration which finally puts good deeds as the winner, and the difference between Christian Fundamentalism and GD is that the former emerged the winner out of fear of a ghastly punishment, while the latter emerged because of its benefits in all religions. The first picture down there is the EXPANDED PASCALS WAGER and the second one shows the results from the first calculations.
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Re: Doing Good Deeds Emerges As Optimal Choice of Religion by Statistical Analysis by Nobody: 11:24am On Sep 15, 2016 |
The clear winner is Christian fundamentalism. This occurs because the other Christian faiths don’t treat the fundamentalists too harshly, and “Pascal’s Wagerism” lets the fundamentalists into heaven. Since this isn’t very interesting, I will now exclude Pascal’s Wagerism from the possible true faiths (q(Pascal’s Wagerism)=0). Commentary It gets even more interesting here. As the author said, adding reincarnation as a factor, making it a continuous loop, makes the game even more interesting! If reincarnation is a good thing, GD comes out as the clear winner. If its a bad thing, Christian fundamentalism leads. If its neutral, GD and CF are tied in dead heat. Is reincarnation a good thing to you? Personally, it is, if it existed. . . a chance to come try again and start over/continue where you left off. However, the answer treated reincarnation neutrally with a slightly negative tilt, leaving GD and CF balanced. CF treats everyone else(non believers) terribly, and even Pascal's wagerism let's Christians into heaven. Lol. If only Universalism was true. Then there's be no need for all of this because everyone would be right ![]() (Keep in mind that this expanded version doesn't include all 5000 gods, but as many as possible, and is the best analysis you could get).
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Re: Doing Good Deeds Emerges As Optimal Choice of Religion by Statistical Analysis by Nobody: 11:36am On Sep 15, 2016 |
As you can see, GD and CF are exactly the same, with a score of 2.93. By following a somewhat more subtle strategy however, we can do better. The problem arises if you rationally choose your religion in every incarnation, and therefore pick either CF or GD. But what if, say, Hinduism is the true faith? Then you are going to be stuck getting reincarnated forever - you are stuck in a reincarnation loop. Even if reincarnation is neutral, it means you never get the reward. Of course, if CF is the true faith, and you pick Hinduism, then you are screwed. An optimal strategy, then, would be to pick either CF or GD with very high probability and pick Hinduism, Buddhism, Shinto, Cao Dai, Jainism, or Sikhism, with a very small probability. Just what that probability depends on how bad the punishment is and how good the reward is compared to some number of reincarnations. For the 100 reincarnation maximum here, it turns out that it is optimal to pick one of the reincarnating/rewarding faiths each with about 3% probability. If the maximum number of reincarnations increases, then this optimal probability becomes smaller. The expected outcomes are shown below if you choose the listed faith with high probability, but mix in the reincarnating/rewarding faiths each with 3% probability. Commentary Considering the infinite loop you might end up in if you keep choosing Christian Fundamentalism and keep reincarnating to atone and atone and atone forever, good deeds emerges the clear winner. Other faiths that believe in reincarnation might be good for you, but the safest way to play the game is by doing good deeds. CONCLUSION Forget about judging others and being 'holier than thou'. It can't take you anywhere. The best way to live your life is by being a good person, and helping your fellow man when you have the chance. So before you listen to any religious leader telling you what to do, question it in your head: 'Is this thing going to help humanity in the Kong run or is it for their own selfish interests?'. Then make the appropriate choice. Footnotes https://www.quora.com/Given-the-following-payoff-matrix-which-religion-is-actually-the-most-optimal-to-wager-ones-belief-on-in-a-multi-religion-Pascals-Wager
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Re: Doing Good Deeds Emerges As Optimal Choice of Religion by Statistical Analysis by Nobody: 8:10am On Sep 16, 2016 |
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Re: Doing Good Deeds Emerges As Optimal Choice of Religion by Statistical Analysis by winner01(m): 8:53am On Sep 16, 2016 |
AnonyNymous:smh ![]() |
Re: Doing Good Deeds Emerges As Optimal Choice of Religion by Statistical Analysis by hopefulLandlord: 8:55am On Sep 16, 2016 |
we already know Pascal's wager to be bullshit just like any god idea they're just meant to keep people in line 1 Like |
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